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Global Water Supply Threat




                                     Vorosmarty et al Nature 2010

The global percentage of dry areas has increased by
about 1.74% (of global land area) per decade (11%)
from 1950 to 2008.    Aiguo Dai. J.Geophysical Res 2011
Happiness and GDP
    Percentage very happy    United States




                                 Real income
                                 per person




                                    Percentage
                                    very happy

     Source: Layard (2005)




 “Americans have been more successful decoupling GDP from
 happiness than in decoupling it from material and energy” —
 Peter Victor                                                  2
Fossil and Cement Emissions
Global fossil and cement emissions: 9.5±0.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990
            Projection for 2012: 9.7±0.5PgC, 58% over 1990




             Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
      Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012
The recent shift from coal to gas in the USA
 The recent shift from coal to gas in the US could “kick start” mitigation
To keep below 2ºC requires a shift to technologies with lower emissions




          Grey areas are: World War I, Great Depression, World War II, oil shocks
               Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012
Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement
Emissions growth 2000-2011: coal (4.9%/yr), oil (1.1%/yr), gas (2.7%/yr),
            cement (6.9%/yr), flaring (4.3%/yr, not shown)

                                                                                    Share of global
                                                                                    emissions in 2011




             Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)
       Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions
        China (28%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%)




The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the
1990-2011 cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland
                                            (5%)
Major flows from Production to Consumption
        Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel consumption (production)
          End of arrow: goods and services consumption




        Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000
                              Source: Peters et al 2012b
Major flows from Extraction to Consumption
                Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel extraction
           End of arrow: goods and services consumption




                               Arrow scaling different in previous figure




         Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000
                               Source: Peters et al 2012b
Since 1986:
Western Fire Season 78 days longer
4X Increase in Fires > 1000acres
6X Increase in Acres Burned
> Increase in Forests above 6500ft
Power Plants like
Colstrip use 1 Train Car
   every 5 minutes
Energy Efficiency Works
                                    Per Capita Electricity Consumption
             14,000
                                                                         United States
             12,000



             10,000
kWh/person




              8,000                                                       California


              6,000



              4,000



              2,000



                -
                      1960   1964   1968   1972   1976   1980   1984   1988   1992       1996   2000   2004

Source: California Energy Commission, 2005

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Steve running powerpoint

  • 1. Global Water Supply Threat Vorosmarty et al Nature 2010 The global percentage of dry areas has increased by about 1.74% (of global land area) per decade (11%) from 1950 to 2008. Aiguo Dai. J.Geophysical Res 2011
  • 2. Happiness and GDP Percentage very happy United States Real income per person Percentage very happy Source: Layard (2005) “Americans have been more successful decoupling GDP from happiness than in decoupling it from material and energy” — Peter Victor 2
  • 3. Fossil and Cement Emissions Global fossil and cement emissions: 9.5±0.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990 Projection for 2012: 9.7±0.5PgC, 58% over 1990 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012
  • 4. The recent shift from coal to gas in the USA The recent shift from coal to gas in the US could “kick start” mitigation To keep below 2ºC requires a shift to technologies with lower emissions Grey areas are: World War I, Great Depression, World War II, oil shocks Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012
  • 5. Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement Emissions growth 2000-2011: coal (4.9%/yr), oil (1.1%/yr), gas (2.7%/yr), cement (6.9%/yr), flaring (4.3%/yr, not shown) Share of global emissions in 2011 Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
  • 6. Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute) Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions China (28%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%) The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the 1990-2011 cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%)
  • 7. Major flows from Production to Consumption Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel consumption (production) End of arrow: goods and services consumption Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000 Source: Peters et al 2012b
  • 8. Major flows from Extraction to Consumption Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel extraction End of arrow: goods and services consumption Arrow scaling different in previous figure Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=PgC/1000 Source: Peters et al 2012b
  • 9. Since 1986: Western Fire Season 78 days longer 4X Increase in Fires > 1000acres 6X Increase in Acres Burned > Increase in Forests above 6500ft
  • 10.
  • 11. Power Plants like Colstrip use 1 Train Car every 5 minutes
  • 12. Energy Efficiency Works Per Capita Electricity Consumption 14,000 United States 12,000 10,000 kWh/person 8,000 California 6,000 4,000 2,000 - 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Source: California Energy Commission, 2005

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Data are now widely available from surveys of happiness and life satisfaction In these surveys, people are asked to rate their level of happiness or life satisfaction on a numerical scale (from 1-10 for example) If we look at these data over time for countries like the U.S. or UK, we find that although GDP per capita has more than tripled since 1950, people have not become any happier “ Americans have been more successful decoupling GDP from happiness than in decoupling it from material and energy” The chart is from Layard, R., 2005. Happiness: lessons from a new science . Penguin Press, New York, p. 30. The quote is from: Victor, P.A., 2008. Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster . Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, p. 125.