The document discusses various scenarios for how climate change and limited fossil fuel resources could impact the future global energy landscape and geopolitics. It explores possibilities like a reduced globalized world order, increased authoritarianism, conflicts over dwindling oil reserves, and dramatically higher energy prices. It also presents alternatives like a transition to renewable energy sources and more equitable international cooperation on climate solutions.

1. Kina, USA och framtidens energi En omöjlig kombination?

3. Klimatförändringar ? ? Efter floden Sammanbrott och minskad befolkning Öar av återhämtning Brun dystopi Auktoritarism Fortress world Alarmerande klimatpåverkan Begränsad tillgång till fossila bränslen Kraftig ekonomisk volatilitet Moderata energipriseökningar ? ? Är litet vackert? Slutet för det globala samhället Jordbrukskollaps Grönt hopp Global fördelning Grönt strategiskt beteende Begränsad klimatpåverkan

4. Climate Change ? ? Wake of the Flood Reduced populations Islands of recovery Brown dystopia Authoritarianism Fortress world Alarming impacts Increasing competition for fossil energy Dramatic price increases Moderate price increases ? ? Is Small Beautiful? End of globalisation Dramatic agricultural impacts Green hope Global equity Green strategic behaviour Limited impacts

9. Climate Change ? ? Wake of the Flood Reduced populations Islands of recovery Brown dystopia Authoritarianism Fortress world Alarming impacts Increasing competition for fossil energy Dramatic price increases Moderate price increases ? ? Is Small Beautiful? End of globalisation Dramatic agricultural impacts Green hope Global equity Green strategic behaviour Limited impacts

14. Climate Change ? ? Wake of the Flood Reduced populations Islands of recovery Brown dystopia Authoritarianism Fortress world Alarming impacts Increasing competition for fossil energy Dramatic price increases Moderate price increases ? ? Is Small Beautiful? End of globalisation Dramatic agricultural impacts Green hope Global equity Green strategic behaviour Limited impacts

19. Climate Change ? ? Wake of the Flood Reduced populations Islands of recovery Brown dystopia Authoritarianism Fortress world Alarming impacts Increasing competition for fossil energy Dramatic price increases Moderate price increases ? ? Is Small Beautiful? End of globalisation Dramatic agricultural impacts Green hope Global equity Green strategic behaviour Limited impacts

24. Climate Change ? ? Wake of the Flood Reduced populations Islands of recovery Brown dystopia Authoritarianism Fortress world Alarming impacts Increasing competition for fossil energy Dramatic price increases Moderate price increases ? ? Is Small Beautiful? End of globalisation Dramatic agricultural impacts Green hope Global equity Green strategic behaviour Limited impacts

30. Peak oil inträffar nu

31. Marginalkostnad för oljeproduktion

32. Oljeberoende (Mb/d) 54% 63% 52%

33. (M b/d)

34. Kina 107 Btu USA 98 Btu

35. The American way of life is not up for negotiation George Bush (sr)Rio 1992

37. USA:s kostnad för oljeberoende 3,5% an BNP 4,5% av BNP

38. USA Energianvändning

40. Kinas oljepeak

41. Peak coal?

43. Letour position be absolutelyclear: An attempt by anyoutside force to gaincontrol of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assaultwill be repelled by anymeansnecessary, includingmilitary force. Jimmy CarterState of the Union, 1980

45. Show me your number 谢谢

46. Totalt mervärde från cleantech(miljarder EUR)

47. Relativt mervärde från cleantech(% av BNP)

48. Hög absolut tillväxt i cleantech är avgörande för konkurrenskraft