GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming primary elections.

1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
March 15, 2016

2. PAGE 2
S O FA R , T U R NO UT I N T H I S Y E A R’ S P R I M ARI ES R I VA LS 2 0 0 8
R E C O RD
Source: Pew Research Center
26%
21%
25%
22%
17%
18%
15%
30%
15%
29%
16%
17% 17%
13%
8% 8%
10%
20%
6%
12%
12%
7%
10% 9%
9%
11%
7%
11%
10%
17%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Votes cast in Democratic and Republican primaries as a share of eligible voters in primary states
Total Democratic Republican

3. PAGE 3
O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS S P I KE S C A U SE D B Y T H E G O P D E B ATES
A N D C A N C EL LED T R U MP R A L LY
Source: Brandwatch
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar
Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio John Kasich
66%
23%
8%
3%
Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio John Kasich
Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume
n= 3,806,849
GOP Debates
GOP Debates
Trump Rally Cancelled
in Chicago
Trump Blames Sanders for
Cancelled Rally

4. PAGE 4
D E M O CRAT IC D E B ATES A N D C A N C EL LED T R UM P R A L LY D R O VE
O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS
Source: Brandwatch
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar
Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Democratic Debates
40%
60%
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume
n= 1,765,739
Democratic Debates
Trump Blames Sanders for
Cancelled Rally

5. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON

6. PAGE 6
R E P U BL ICA N PAT H T O T H E N O M I NATI ON
Phase 1 –
Winnowing the Field
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada
Phase 2 –
Super Tuesday (SEC Primary)
653 Delegates (26% of all delegates)
Phase 3 – March 15, Winner-take-all Begins
Phase 4 –
March 16 – June 7
Final Primary Voting
Phase 5 – RNC Convention, July 18 – 21, 2016
Key Dates
Date
Number of
Delegates
States
March 15 367
FL, IL, MO,Northern
MarianaIslands,NC,OH
March 22 107 American Samoa,AZ,UT
April 26 172 CT,DE, MD,PA, RI
June 7 331 CA,MT, NJ,NM,SD

7. PAGE 7
W I N N ER S O F E A C H S TATE P R I MARY /CA UCUS S O FA R
DonaldTrump
(15)
Ted Cruz
(8)
Marco Rubio
(1)
Also won DC & Puerto Rico

8. PAGE 8
T H E N U M B ER O F V O T E S I S L E S S T H A N T H E N U M B ER O F
D E L E GAT ES
Top-performing candidates
get more delegates than their
vote totals might suggest.
Trump won about 35 percent
of all the votes cast through
March 8 but earned 43
percent of the delegates
available in those contests.
43.3%
34.4%
33.9%
28.6%
16.9%
21.2%
4.1%
6.8%
1.7%
9.0%
Portion of all delegates
Portion of all votes
Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Others
Source: Washington Post

9. PAGE 9
T R U M P I S W I N N I NG T H E D E L E GATE R A C E S O FA R , B U T C R U Z
I S N ’ T FA R B E H I N D
Current Delegate Count
2,472 Delegates to the Convention
168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%)
1,237 Needed to Win
469
370
163
63
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
DonaldTrump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Source: Associated Press
More than one in 10
delegates will go to
the convention in
Cleveland either
unpledged or
pledged to a defunct
campaign.

10. PAGE 10
T H E R AT I ON ALE B E H IN D # N E VE RTRUMP M O V E MEN T
Source: Washington Post-ABC News Poll, March 3-6, 2016
In hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz and Rubio
both top Trump. Among non-Trump supporters, 7 in
10 say they’d prefer Cruz, and as many say they’d
pick Rubio in head-to-head contests.
Just 51 percent say they’d be satisfied with Trump
as the Republican nominee. Moreover, 60 percent
of Republican and Republican-leaning women say
they’d be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee.

11. PAGE 11
T R U M P H A S L E D I N N AT I ONA L P O L L I NG S I N C E S E P T EMBE R
Trump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise.
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 7%
12%6% 5% 6% 6%
8% 13%
18% 17%
24%
11%
8% 6%
9%
10%
15%
10% 17%
13%
5%
15%
31%
28% 28%
34%
39%
43% 42%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Kasich Cruz Rubio Trump

12. PAGE 12
W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R R E P UB LIC ANS O N M A R C H 1 5 T H
Source: The Green Papers and Real Clear Politics Polling averages
March 15th Primary Details
Voter Eligibility Number of Delegates
(Allocation)
Florida Closed 99
(Winner-Take-All)
NorthCarolina Open 72
(Proportional)
Illinois Modified** 69
(Winner-Take-Most*)
Ohio Modified** 66
(Winner-Take-All)
Missouri Open 52
(Proportional*)
5%
13%
10%
23%
36%
18%
11%
10%
20%
26%
29%
19%
33%
35%
41%
42%
Ohio
Illinois
North
Carolina
Florida
Polling Averages for March 15th Primary States
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
*Illinois and Missouri could functionally become winner-
take-all too. Both states award their delegates on a
congressional-district level. So if Trump (or someone
else) sweeps their congressional districts, that candidate
will win all the delegates
Limited to no polling has been done in Missouri
**unaffiliated voters may choose
which party primary to vote in,
while voters registered with a
party may only vote in that party’s
primary.

13. PAGE 13
H O W F L O R I DA A N D O H I O C O U LD M A K E O R B R E A K D O N AL D
T R U M P T H I S W E E K
Source: Frontloading HQ courtesy of The Washington Post

14. PAGE 14
S TAT E O F T H E G O P R A C E F O R T H E P R E S IDE NCY
• Donald Trump remains in a strong position, at least as long as the field remains divided.
• Kasich and Cruz gain, at Rubio’s expense: Marco Rubio cleared 18 percent of the vote in every primary
state on Super Tuesday. He hasn’t reached that number since. Both John Kasich and Ted Cruz have
benefited.
• The Challenge for Anyone but Trump: The results since Super Tuesday suggest that Trump holds
around 38 percent of the vote nationally, a number that could allow him to amass a majority of delegates
in a three-way race. But they also suggest that he really does have a ceiling: His support hasn’t
increased, even as other candidates have left the race or faltered.
• Kasich might win Ohio, but even if he does, Trump could amass a majority of delegates without it.
Trump could conceivably benefit if Kasich stays in the race, by preventing Cruz from consolidating the
“Anyone but Trump” vote.

15. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

16. PAGE 16
D E M O CRAT IC PAT H T O T H E N O M I NAT ION
Phase 1 –
Winnowing the Field
Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
Phase 2 –
Early March
1,389 Delegates (29% of all delegates)
Phase 3 –
Late March
1,113 Delegates (23% of all delegates)
Phase 4 –
April – June
Final Primary Voting
Phase 5 – DNC Convention, July 25 – 28, 2016
Key Dates
Date
Number of
Delegates
States
March 15 691 FL, IL, MO,NC,OH
March 26 142 AK, HI, WA
April 19 247 NY
April 26 384 CT,DE, MD,NE,RI
June 7 695
CA,MT, ND,NJ,NM,
SD

17. PAGE 17
W I N N ER S O F E A C H S TATE P R I MARY /CA UCUS S O FA R
Bernie Sanders
(9)
Hillary Clinton
(12)

18. PAGE 18
A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S W O N A L M O ST A S M A N Y S TATE S,
C L I N TON H A S S T R ON G L E A D W I T H D E L GATES
Source NY Times
768
554
467
26
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Clinton
Sanders
Delegates
Superdelegates
Total:1,235
Total:580
4,763 Delegates to the Convention
4,051 Pledged delegates
712 Superdelegates
2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total)
Current Delegate Count

19. PAGE 19
A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S N A R R OWED T H E L E A D I N T H E P O L L S,
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS S T I L L FAV OR C L I N TON S I G N IF ICA NTLY
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
12%
17% 18%
24% 25%
30% 31%
34%
39% 40%
60% 58%
54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%
51% 53%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among Democrats and Democratic leaningvoters
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
90%
10%
Clinton Sanders
Chancesofbecomingthe Democratic
presidential nominee

20. PAGE 20
W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R D E M OCR ATS O N M A R C H 1 5 T H
Source : New York Times, The Green Papers, and Real Clear Politics polling averages
Voter
Eligibility
Delegate
Counts
(Allocation)
Florida Closed 246
(Proportional)
Illinois Open 182
(Proportional)
Ohio Modified* 159
(Proportional)
NorthCarolina Modified* 121
(Proportional)
Missouri Open 84
(Proportional)
March 15th Primary Details
33%
43%
46%
32%
57%
50%
48%
61%
North Carolina
Ohio
Illinois
Florida
Polling
Averages
for
March
15th Primary
States
Clinton
Sanders
Limited to no polling has been done in Missouri
*unaffiliated voters may choose which party
primary to vote in, while voters registered with a
party may only vote in that party’s primary.

21. PAGE 21
S TAT E O F D E M O CR ATIC R A C E F O R T H E P R E S IDE NCY
• The headlines have changed for Sanders, but the prediction markets haven’t. Clinton is still the likelier
Democratic nominee.
• With Sanders victory in Michigan, are the polls off in other Midwestern states that are holding open
primaries - specifically Illinois and Ohio?
• If Clinton wins 2 states out of the big 3 (Illinois, Florida, and Ohio), she’ll take the wind out of Sanders’
sails. But if Sanders can win two or even three states today, the campaign will remain alive and fighting.
• A series of Western states vote between March 22 and April 9, as does Wisconsin.

22. P O S T - M A R C H 1 5 t h

23. PAGE 23
I M P O RTAN T P O S T M A R CH 1 5 TH D AT E S
( D E B AT ES/ PRI MARI ES/ CAUC USES )
Upcoming Debate Schedule
Date Republican Democrat
March 21st ✔
Primaries/Caucuses in late March/early April
Date Republican Democrat
March 22nd AZ, UT AZ, ID, UT
March 26th AK, HI, WA
April 5th WI WI
April 9th CO WY

24. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor
Washington, DC 20004
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10010
202.337.0808 | GPG.COM
GPG Research
The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs
firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all
manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.
Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research
methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our
clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)