GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward Super Tuesday

1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
March 1, 2016

2. G P G P E R S P E C T I V E

3. PAGE 3
I N S I G HTS A N D E X P E C TATION S
• Can Bernie keep it close and cause
some problems?
• He needs some wins – VT, MA,
MN
• He needs to grow his vote with
African-Americans and Latinos
• Can Hillary fix some problems?
• She needs to improve with
women voters, white voters, and
younger voters
• Has Marco moved up?
• He needs to show he can close
the gap with Trump; Cruz and
Kasich don’t help
• Ted needs Texas
• If Cruz can’t carry his home
state, what is his path?
• Can Trump run the table?
• A thumping by Trump could
begin to close the deal
The GOP nominee Hillary Clintonfearsthe most is MarcoRubio. He is perceivedby manytobe the
Republicans’best hope for winningthe White House. But for that to happen,the GOP race needs to
quickly become a two-manracebetweenRubioandTrump. The longer Cruz andKasichremaininthe
race,the more likely Trumpsolidifies his holdon the GOP nomination.
Source: The Glover Park Group

4. PAGE 4
O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ON S P I K ES C A U SED B Y T H E G O P D E B AT ES
Timeframe analyzed: February 21 - 28, 2016
Using Brandwatch
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb
Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio
59%20%
20%
Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio
Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume
n= 2,193,930
GOP Debates
Build-up for GOP
Debates

5. PAGE 5
S P I K E L E E ’ S E N D ORS EME NT O F S A N D ER S, “ W H I CH H I L LA RY”
C A M PAIG N A N D C L I N TON’ S W I N I N S O U T H C A R OL INA D R I VE
O N L I NE C O N VER SATI ONS
Timeframe analyzed: February 21 - 28, 2016
Using Brandwatch
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb
Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Spike Lee endorses Sanders
#Which Hillary attack
campaign flares up
Clinton wins South
Carolina Primary
49% 51%
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Share of VoiceDaily Digital Conversation Volume
n= 894,986

6. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON

7. PAGE 7
R E P U BL ICA N PAT H T O T H E N O M I NATI ON
Phase 1 –
Winnowing the Field
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada
Phase 2 –
Super Tuesday (SEC Primary)
653 Delegates (26% of all delegates)
Phase 3 – March 15, Winner-take-all Begins
Phase 4 –
March 16 – June 7
Final Primary Voting
Phase 5 – RNC Convention, July 18 – 21, 2016
Key Dates
Date
Number of
Delegates
States
March 1 653
AL,AK,AR,CO, GA, MA,
MN,OK, TN,TX, VT, VA
March 15 367
FL, IL, MO,Northern
MarianaIslands,NC,OH
April 26 172 CT,DE, MD,PA, RI
June 7 331 CA,MT, NJ,NM,SD

8. PAGE 8
G O P R E S U LTS F R O M T H E F I R S T P H A SE
Source: NYTimes.com
Candidate % of Votes
Ted Cruz 28%
DonaldTrump 24%
Marco Rubio 23%
Ben Carson 9%
Rand Paul 5%
Jeb Bush 3%
Carly Fiorina 2%
John Kasich 2%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Chris Christie 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
Candidate % of Votes
DonaldTrump 35%
John Kasich 16%
Ted Cruz 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Marco Rubio 11%
Chris Christie 7%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Ben Carson 2%
Candidate % of Votes
DonaldTrump 33%
Marco Rubio 23%
Ted Cruz 22%
Jeb Bush 8%
John Kasich 8%
Ben Carson 7%
Candidate % of Votes
DonaldTrump 50%
Marco Rubio 24%
Ted Cruz 21%
John Kasich 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Iowa Caucus New Hampshire Primary South Carolina Primary Nevada Caucus

9. PAGE 9
T R U M P I S W I N N I NG T H E D E L E GATE R A C E S O FA R , B U T T H E RE’ S
S T I L L A L O N G WAY T O G O
The more delegates Cruz or any others win in the SEC primaries on Super Tuesday, the greater the odds
that neither Rubio nor Trump will win 1,237 delegates by June, raising the prospect of a contested
convention in Cleveland.
Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson
Total 82 18 15 6 4
Iowa Results 7 8 7 1 3
New Hampshire
Results
11 3 2 4 0
South Carolina
Results
50 0 0 0 0
Nevada Results 14 7 6 1 1
Current Delegate Count Delegates Won
2,472 Delegates to the Convention
168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%)
1,237 Needed to Win
82
18
15
6
4
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
DonaldTrump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Ben Carson
Source: NYTimes.com

10. PAGE 10
T R U M P H A S L E D I N N AT I ONA L P O L L I NG S I N C E S E P T EMBE R
Trump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise. He’s been at least 35
percent and growing for several months now.
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 7%
6% 5% 6% 6%
8% 13%
18% 17%
11%
8% 6%
9%
10%
15%
10% 17%
5%
15%
31%
28% 28%
34%
39%
43%
10%
8%
14%
17%
21%
14%
8% 9%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Kasich Cruz Rubio Trump Carson

11. Source: NBC News/Survey Monkey Poll, February 8-14, 2016 PAGE 11
W H E R E D O B U S H S U P P ORT ERS G O N O W ?
Not exactly a solid voting bloc, most of these voters are expected to gravitate towards other more
moderate candidates such as Rubio or Kasich, although some will go to Trump and Cruz.
19%
16%
12%
11%
9%
23%
Marco
Rubio
John
Kasich
Ted
Cruz
Donald
Trump
Ben
Carson
Don't
know
Bush Supporters Second Choice
60%
43%
34%
33%
26%
16%
34%
43%
46%
49%
51%
35%
6%
13%
18%
18%
20%
47%
4%
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
DonaldTrump
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
John Kasich
Very conservative Somewhatconservative Moderate Liberal
Ideology of Candidate Supporters in South Carolina
Source: NY Times/Edison Research South Carolina Exit Polls

12. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

13. PAGE 13
D E M O CRAT IC PAT H T O T H E N O M I NAT ION
Phase 1 –
Winnowing the Field
Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
Phase 2 –
Early March
1,389 Delegates (29% of all delegates)
Phase 3 –
Late March
1,113 Delegates (23% of all delegates)
Phase 4 –
April – June
Final Primary Voting
Phase 5 – DNC Convention, July 25 – 28, 2016
Key Dates
Date
Number of
Delegates
States
March 1 865
AL,AmericanSamoa,
AR,CO, GA, MA,MN,
OK, TN,TX, VT, VA
March 15 691 FL, IL, MO,NC,OH
April 19 247 NY
April 26 384 CT,DE, MD,NE,RI
June 7 695
CA,MT, ND,NJ,NM,
SD

14. PAGE 14
R E S U LTS F R O M T H E F I R S T P H A SE
Source NY Times
Candidate % of Votes
Hillary Clinton 49.9%
Bernie Sanders 49.6%
Martin O’Malley 0.6%
Iowa Caucus New Hampshire Primary South Carolina PrimaryNevada Caucus
Candidate % of Votes
Bernie Sanders 60.4%
Hillary Clinton 38.0%
Candidate % of Votes
Hillary Clinton 52.6%
Bernie Sanders 47.3%
Candidate % of Votes
Hillary Clinton 73.5%
Bernie Sanders 26.0%

15. PAGE 15
S U P P ORT F R O M T H E S U P ERD ELEG ATES G I V ES C L I NTO N A
S I G N I FIC ANT L E A D , B U T S H E S T I L L N E E DS A L O T M O R E
D E L E GAT ES T O W I N T H E N O M I N ATIO N
Source NY Times
91
65
453
20
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Clinton
Sanders
Delegates Superdelegates
Total:544
Total:85
Clinton Sanders
Total 91 65
Iowa Results 23 21
New Hampshire Results 9 15
Nevada Results 20 15
South Carolina Results 39 14
Pledged Delegates Won
4,763 Delegates to the Convention
4,051 Pledged delegates
712 Superdelegates
2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total)
Current Delegate Count

16. PAGE 16
A LT H OUG H S A N DE RS H A S N A R R OWED T H E L E A D I N T H E P O L L S,
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS S T I L L FAV OR C L I N TON S I G N IF ICA NTLY
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
12%
17% 18%
24% 25%
30% 31%
34%
39%
60% 58%
54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%
51%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among Democrats and Democratic leaningvoters
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
97%
3%
Clinton Sanders
Chancesofbecomingthe Democratic
presidential nominee

17. S U P E R T U E S D A Y

18. PAGE 18
S U P E R T U E S DAY– W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R T H E G O P ?
Source: University of Virginia Center for Politics, The Green Papers
State Number of Delegates Voter Eligibility Delegate Selection
Alabama 50 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger)
Alaska 28 Closed Caucus Proportional (13% threshold)
Arkansas 40 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger)
Colorado 37 Closed Caucus No delegates will be bound by the precinctcaucuses
Georgia 76 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger)
Massachusetts 42 ModifiedPrimary Proportional (5%threshold)
Minnesota 38 Open Caucus Proportional (10% threshold,85%winner-take-all trigger)
Oklahoma 43 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger)
Tennessee 58 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold,66.7% winner-take-alltrigger)
Texas 155 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger)
Vermont 16 Open Primary Proportional (20% threshold,50%winner-take-all trigger)
Virginia 49 Open Primary Proportional (no threshold)

19. PAGE 19
S U P E R T U E S DAY- S TATE O F T H E R A C E
Source: Real Clear Politics polling averages
Texas
Cruz: 36%
Trump:27%
Rubio:19%
Georgia
Trump: 36%
Rubio:22%
Cruz:21%
Oklahoma
Trump: 31%
Cruz:23%
Rubio:21%
Alabama
Trump: 38%
Rubio:20%
Carson:15%
Virginia
Trump: 37%
Rubio:22%
Cruz:18%
Massachusetts
Trump: 45%
Rubio:18%
Kasich:15%
Vermont
Trump: 32%
Rubio:17%
Cruz:11%
States where
Trump is leading
States where
Cruz is leading
States where
there isn’t
enoughrecent
pollingto say
who is leading

20. PAGE 20
S U P E R T U E S DAY– W H AT ’S AT S TA K E F O R T H E D E M O CRAT S?
Source: The Cook Political Report, The Green Papers
Pledged delegate counts for each state
State Number of Delegates Voter Eligibility Delegate Selection
Alabama 53 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
Arkansas 32 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
Colorado 66 Closed Caucus Proportional (15% threshold)
Georgia 102 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
Massachusetts 91 ModifiedPrimary Proportional (15% threshold)
Minnesota 77 Open Caucus Proportional (15% threshold)
Oklahoma 38 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
Tennessee 67 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
Texas 222 Closed Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
Vermont 16 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)
Virginia 65 Open Primary Proportional (15% threshold)

21. PAGE 21
C L I N TON I S P O L L I NG B E T T ER I N A L M O ST E V E R Y S U P ER
T U E S DAY S TATE
TX
Clinton: 61%
Sanders: 33%
GA
Clinton: 63%
Sanders: 28%
MA
Clinton: 47%
Sanders: 45%
VA
Clinton: 55%
Sanders: 36%
TN
Clinton: 59%
Sanders: 33%
AL
Clinton: 65%
Sanders: 27%
OK
Clinton: 44%
Sanders: 40%
AR
Clinton: 57%
Sanders: 29%
VT
Sanders: 85%
Clinton: 10%States where
Sanders is
leading
States where
Clinton is
leading
Source: Real Clear Politics polling averages
States where
there isn’t
enoughrecent
pollingto say
who is leading

22. Source: FiveThirtyEight.com, Washington Post PAGE 22
S U P E R T U E S DAY P R E DI CTI ONS
Democrats
¨ Clinton will likely pick up a majority of delegates from the southern states.
¨ Oklahoma may be Sanders’ best chance at an upset because it is semi-Midwestern.
¨ Sanders will win Vermont by a big margin.
¨ Close races in Minnesota, Colorado, and Massachusetts; Sanders will need to win these to keep nomination hopes
alive.
¨ If Clinton wins in all the states she’s projected to, it makes the path to a Sanders nomination very difficult.
Republicans
¨ A big test for Rubio, where he will need to meet tough viability thresholds in southern states like Texas and Georgia,
as well as show strength among more moderate Republican voters in blue states like Massachusetts and Vermont.
¨ Texas is a must-win for Cruz. Cruz could take all 155 delegates with majority wins across the state and its
congressional districts. But a close win could sap his momentum, and a loss would likely end the Cruz run.
¨ Except for Texas, expectations for Trump are high across Super Tuesday states. A near sweep by Trump will mean
that all of his opponents will have lost to him in more than a dozen contests, and may find it harder to dodge the label
“loser.”

23. P O S T - S U P E R T U E S D A Y

24. PAGE 24
W H AT ’S N E X T F O R R E P UB LIC ANS?
The single most critical day of the Republican race overall will be on March 15th, when four large states (Florida, Ohio,
Illinois, and Missouri) will award a total of 292 delegates.
65% of GOP delegates will have been awarded by the end of March.
The rules governing the national convention require a candidate to have won a majority of delegates in eight states or
territories to be eligible for the nomination – so at some point, a non-Trump candidate has to start finishing in first place.
Florida, Ohio and Arizona are winner-take-all contests and may be anybody’s best shot to stem Trump’s momentum.
State Date Delegates
Florida March 15 99
Ohio March 15 66
Arizona March 22 58
Total --- 223

25. PAGE 25
W H AT ’S N E X T F O R D E M OCR ATS?
March 15th is not only a big day for Republicans. The Democrats have 691 delegates up for grabs that day. However,
there are no “winner-takes-all” states like the Republicans have. This means that the states assign delegates
proportionally.
Even if Clinton wins all the states she’s projected to win on Super Tuesday, Sanders still has a shot at the nomination.
Although March 1st is very southern-heavy, the Sanders’ campaign is looking forward to states like Michigan, Ohio, and
Missouri that have large populations and the possibility of more support.
State Date Delegates
Michigan March 8 148
Ohio March 15 159
Missouri March 15 84
Total --- 391

26. PAGE 26
I M P O RTAN T P O S T S U P ER T U E SDAY D AT ES
( D E B AT ES/ PRI MARI ES/ CAUC USES )
Upcoming Debate Schedule
Date Republican Democrat
March 3rd ✔
March 6th ✔
March 9th ✔
March 10th ✔
Primaries/Caucuses in March
Date Republican Democrat
March 5th KS, KY, LA, ME KS, LA, NE
March 6th PR ME
March 8th HI, ID, MI, MS MI, MS
March 10th VI
March 12th GU, DC MP
March 15th FL, IL, MO, NC,
MP, OH
FL, IL, MO, NC,
OH
March 22nd AS, AZ, UT AZ, ID, UT
March 26th AK, HI, WA
Big day for
delegates: 691
delegates for
Democrats and
367 delegatesfor
Republicans.

27. Source: Donald Trump image: By Michael Vadon - https://www.flickr.com/photos/80038275@N00/20724666936/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=45369889;
Hillary Clinton image: By Hillary for Iowa - https://www.flickr.com/photos/hillaryforiowa/17135176916/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=40759881; Bernie Sanders
image: Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
PAGE 27
P L U R AL ITY O F V O T E RS D R E A D WAT C HING T R U MP O N
T E L E V ISI ON F O R T H E N E X T F O U R Y E A RS I F E L E C TE D
40%
31%
12%
Whoever is elected president will be
on television constantly for at least
four years. Thinking about ALL of the
candidates currently running for
president, which ONE would you
MOST DREAD watching on television
for four years?

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