On 2 and 3 October 2013, the GTP hosted a series of seminars and scenario planning workshops to capture ideas. In attendance at the "Imagine the Future" Seminar was a cross-sector mix of people including councillors, City and Provincial government officials, planners and urban designers, researchers, NGOS, built environment professionals, and members of the media. This presentation by the Programme Management Executive of the GTP sets out the context of global development forces shaping the way cities function. Development drivers, the initial spatial argument and other core aspects are identified for the Voortrekker Road corridor for 2020, 2030 and 2040, seen here as the second metropolitan core of Cape Town.

1. Introduction and Context
Shahid Solomon
Programme Executive, GTP
IMAGINING THE FUTURE:
CAPE TOWN’S SECOND
METROPOLITAN NODE

2. The Focus Area

3. 1.Feeling the Temperature
2.Imagining the Future
3.Exploring the Possibilities
4.Integrating and Aligning
5.International Design
Competition

4. African
City
Scenarios
Corridor
Structure
and Place
Making
Knowledge
and
Innovation
Hub
Network
Society
Integrated
Transport
Corridor Corridor
Model
Mark I
Mark II
Mark III

5. A WORLD IN TRANSITION

7. 1771 Industrial Revolution
1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways
1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy
Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass
Production
1971 Age of Information & Telecommunications
2013 Midpoint of Age of Information &
Telecommunications
2020 Era of Turbulence
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable
Energy?
MID
CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and
Renewable Energy?

9. THE ROAD TO MID
CENTURY
 Four Hard Riders
 Five Easy Riders
 Two Zebras
 Seven Human Generations

10. Four Hard Riders

11. • CO2 : Climate change
• Ocean acidification
• Global nitrogen cycle (N) cycle
• Global freshwater use
• Land system change & soil loss
• Biological diversity loss
• Chemical pollution
1. ON THE PLANET BOUNDARY

13. IPCC Report 27 Sep 2013
 Carbon dioxide is at an "unprecedented" level not seen
for at least the last 800,000 years.
 Sea level is set to continue to rise at a faster rate than
over the past 40 years.
 Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been melting,
glaciers and Arctic sea ice have continued to shrink.
 changes seen in climate since the 1950s are
"unprecedented over decades to millennia."

14. 2. A WORLD RUN BY POWERFUL,
AGEING 20TH CENTURY NATION
STATES

15. 3. GLOBAL
INSTITUTIONS
More Rounds & Rounds
of talking
OR
Executive Global
Government ?

16. 4. GLOBAL FINANCE
Global Casino of
Financialisation
OR
Recapitalise Re-
novation of Global
Infrastructure ?

17. FIVE Easy Riders

18. 1. LIFE HAS BEEN GETTING
BETTER!
FOR MORE PEOPLE FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO
Population Growth Rates
Declining
Better Quality of Life
 Famine has become rare
 People are Living 25% longer
than 40 years ago
 Greater choice & opportunity
than ever before
 Huge reductions in Poverty
 Better health: lifestyle
diseases now key issue
Higher Standards of Living
 GDP per person has doubled
since 1970
 Cost of Communication has
been slashed
 Price of metals & commodities
reducing
 More holidays, media choice,
information

20. • The Green Wave
• algal aircraft fuel
• super efficient solar
• composting toilets
• Internet Everywhere
• Network-linked chips in everything : 1 trillion by 2025
• Talking video smartphones for all
• Augmented Reality
• Personal Computing Device
• Biotechnology:
• Biology + Nanoscience + Information Science
• Redesign of the human being: Genetic Engineering & Transhumanism
• Redesign of materials
2. TECHNOLOGY AND
INNOVATION: A MATTER OF TIME
& MARKET

21. 3. Other Global trends
 Dematerialisation
 3D Printing
 Hydrogen Fuel Cells
 Bio feedstock & fuels
 Membrane Technology
 Mass Customisation
 Localisation of Production

22. 4. Fast Rail Linked to
Air Transport = Aerotropolis

23. ELECTRIC NETWORKED-VEHICLE
(EN-V)
 Drives automatically and comes
when you call it via iPhone
 GPS, distance-sensing technology
and vehicle-to-vehicle
communication systems would
ease congestion and reduce the
risk of accidents.
 At one-sixth the size of a regular
car, the pods are made of
lightweight materials like carbon
fiber and weigh just 1,000 pounds.
 You can fit five of them into one
parking spot.

24. SMART TRANSPORT
 Smart car pooling
companies.
 Door-to- door taxi service
 Congestion Pricing
 Dynamic ride sharing
 Real-time transportation
and driving services will
be able to adjust
automatically according
to weather, schedule
infractions and congestion

25. FULLY AUTOMATED VEHICLES
 Users can “punch in” or “speak” the place they want to
go to and the vehicle will automatically take them
there.
 will set the stage for fully automated navigation
systems for FLYING VEHICLES

26. More transport options
towards 2030
 electric automobiles and hybrids dominate
 Self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the
dark“Glow Roads”

27. And by 2050…
 Bcause of friction-free technologies and advances in
material science, the average passenger vehicle will
weigh less than 90 kg
 because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly
reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for
a vehicle will be less than one hour
 the cost of the average vehicle will be under R 50 000
 because of the use of automated navigation systems,
traffic courts will be a distant memory.

28. AFRICA IN TRANSITION

30. SOUTH AFRICA IN TRANSITION
EASY RIDERS

31. Solid
Financial
System
Macro
Economic
Stability
White
Middle
Class
Black
Middle
Class
Tax
Base
Corporate
Competitiv
eness
SOLID CORPORATE
CORE

32. EMERGING MARKET LEADER :
Faster GDP growth than
Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria and
Turkey

33. A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY
• Population Stable & Ageing
• Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY
Country Population (millions)*
2012 2030 MID
CENTURY
GAIN
2012 -MID
CENTURY
SOUTH
AFRICA
50 54 56
+6
TANZANIA 47 81 138
+91
NIGERIA 166 257 389
+223
* UN Projections 2012

34. PROSPEROUS
• Huge Potential of Africa
• SA High Economic Competitiveness
• Most sophisticated economy in Africa
• Relatively declining importance of mineral
wealth

35. DYNAMIC
 Economic Nucleus of 250m in Southern Africa

36. HARD RIDERS : A TURBULENT
MEDIUM TERM FUTURE

37. Motor Car
based
Cities
Apartheid
Cities
Low
Productivity
Huge
Carbon
Footprint
FRACTURED CITIES

38. Gauteng
Megalopolis

39. Townships
Poverty
Apartheid
legacy
Poor
Education
& Health
Social
Fragmentat
ion
THE TOWNSHIP THAT STAYED
FOR DINNER

40. High
Unemploym
ent
Poor Labour
Relations
Grant
Relieved
Poverty
Low Skills
Growth
Ceiling
FRACTURED WORKFORCE

41. Cheap Coal
Electricity
Cheap
Labour
Minerals
Export
Resource
curse
Huge
Carbon
Footprint
VULNERABLE MINERALS
ENERGY COMPLEX

42. Big
Government
Big Business
Big Trade
Unions
Stifled
Small
Business
STIFLING MONOPOLIES

43. YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION
1771 Industrial Revolution
1829 Start of Age of Steam & Rail
1875 Start of Age of Steel,
Electricity & Heavy
Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil,
Automobiles & Mass
Production
1905 Mining Economy + Union of
South Africa
1930 Resource Based Manufacturing
1960 Republic of South Africa
1971 Age of Information &
Telecommunications
1971 Resource Based Services
Economy
2013 Midpoint of Age of
Information & Telecomms
1994 Democratic Elections
2020 Era of Turbulence 2020 A Perfect Storm ?
2030 Start of Age of
Biotechnology and
Renewable Energy?
2030 An African Knowledge &
Finance Capital ?
MID
CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotech 2050 A Wealthy African Region ?

44. A CORRIDOR IN
TRANSITION

45. Corridor
Transition
Period World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response
1.
Birth
1680 –
1840
Regional Wagon
Route
Outspan at
Hardekraaltjie
2.
Urbanisation
1860 -
1940
Age of Steel, Electricity
& Heavy Engineering
Hard Road &
Railway Line
Country Villages & High
Streets
3. City
Integration
1940 –
1980
Age of Oil, Automobiles
& Mass Production
Commuter Rail /
Bus Corridor
Industrialisation
Satellite Towns &
Corridor Emergence
4. Metro
Sprawl
1980 –
2020
Age of Information &
Telecommunications
N1 Regional Motor
Corridor, Mini Bus
Taxi
Corridor Decline
5. Metro
Compaction
2020 –
2030
Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit,
New Trains, Smart
Transport Systems
Corridor Regeneration
6.
Africanisation
2030 -
2040
Start of Age of
Biotechnology and
Renewable Energy?
Fast Rail, Smart
Vehicles
Off Grid Satellite Towns
7. Regionalism 2040
+
Midpoint of Age of
Biotech and Renewable
Energy?
Walking & Cycling Urban Villages

46. CAPE TOWN
SECOND NODE
REGIONAL
PERSPECTIVE

47. BELLVILLE AT CORE
OF 21ST CENTURY
REGIONAL
COMPLEX
 Bio Silicon Valley of Africa
 Regional Tourism & Services
 Fast Rail connecting
Airport, Western
Cape, Eastern Cape and
Gauteng
 Aerotropolis link to airport

48. BI – NODAL STRUCTURE OF
CAPE TOWN’S URBAN CORE
Second Node
Balancing
Historic City Centre

49. CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE
SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE
 Worst Case Scenario:
Doubling of Greenhouse
Gas Emissions to 2040
will place massive
carbon tax burden on
growth
 Urban Core is energy
efficient, carbon
efficient, adaptable,
inclusive & sustainable
alternative

50. INTEGRATING THE CAPE
FLATS
Corridor anchors North
South grid integration of
Cape Flats
Second Node is connecting
Hub for Symphony Way
Corridor that links
Khayelitsha to the Urban
Core
CAPE TOWN SECOND CITY
STRUCTURE PERSPECTIVE

53. Integrated Rapid Transit (2016)
Modern Rail Fleet (2025)

55. CAPE TOWN
SECOND NODE
INNOVATION
PERSPECTIVE

57. CAPE TOWN
SECOND NODE
URBAN DESIGN
PERSPECTIVE

58. Bellville’s Star Shape Stretches
Growth
Cape Town has Adaptable Grid to
enable Cohesive Growth

59. STRADDLING RAILWAY LINE IS CRITICAL
COMPACT COHESIVE CITY
CORE

61. WELL NETWORKED AND
CONNECTED URBAN CAMPUS

62. CORRIDOR OPTIONS
AND TYPOLOGIES

66. A step path into
the future

67. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING &
EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040

68. URBAN ORGANISER
CID Operations
Integrated Transport Operations
Security Agency Capacity Building
CCTV
Safe Transport & Parking
Constructive Parks & Public Spaces
Problem Buildings

69. Clean & Safe CIDs
Great Events
Ubuntu Market
FROM AMBITION TO ACTION:
TURNING POTENTIAL INTO PROSPERITY

70. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 –
2040
URBAN ACUPUNTURE : 2013 -
2016

71. Urban Acupunture
 Strategic Locations
 Key Intersections
 Well Located Public land
 Stations & Transport Interchanges
 Catalytic Effect on Systems & Perceptions
 Do-able within 18 months – 2 years

72. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 –
2040
CATALYTIC PPP REVELOPMENT & UPGRADING: 2013 - 2016
LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING
2014 -2025

73. Nodal Precincts
Nodal
Precinct Ha Avail. Units People Value
Wingfield +
Transnet 321 200 40 000 160 000
R 12
Billion
Belcon 340 233 46 600 186 400
R 14
Billion
Stikland
Hospital 140 140 28 000 112 000
R 8.4
Billion
Tygerberg
Hospital 75 75 15 000 60 000
R 4.5
Billion
876 648 129 600 518 400
R 38.8
Billion

74. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 –
2040
URBAN ACUPUNTUTE : 2013 - 2016
LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING: 2013 – 2020
CORRIDOR INTEGRATION
2016 -2040
NEW METRO NODE
2016 -2040

75. THANK YOU