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BAD TO   WORSE Why Some Start-ups Go Down  the Tubes … and Others Don't   GREG FISHER   #1 BESTSELLER
 
Top   10 Mistakes of Entrepreneurs
“ I don’t care about the product, I just want to make loads of money”  1 NO REAL PASSION FOR THE BUSINESS
Linking Market Demand with passion, skills and resources to create an entrepreneurial opportunity  Market Demand Passion Skills Resources
The Key Elements in Creating an Entrepreneurial Opportunity  Opportunity Market Demand Passion Skills Resources Entrepreneur
Key questions to sourcing the right opportunity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ We want one so everyone will want one ”   2 NO UNDERSTANDING OF THE MARKET
Researching an Idea ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Company Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Collaborators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Competitors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Customers How can one gather the information?  What needs to be researched?
“ We are going to be just like Amazon.com, only better”  3 NO DIFFERENTIATION
Assessing an Opportunity [VENTURE] Concept Attractiveness Competitive Advantage [ENTREPRENERIAL TEAM] Low Low High High Market Size  Market Growth  Differentiation Customer Need Skills  Resources  Passion / Energy Network 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Response [VENTURE] Concept Attractiveness Competitive Advantage [ENTREPRENERIAL TEAM] Low Low High High Avoid / Wait & Reassess in Future Build / hire / develop the required capabilities Identify / exploit a specific under served niche Revise product or business model Invest and pursue the opportunity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Strategy Formulation Questions What are the threats for the business?  What are the opportunities for the business?  What are our weaknesses?  What are our strengths?  Current status Where are we at?  Who is responsible?  What needs to happen in the next 30 days? What are our 1 year goals?  What are our 3 year goals? Goals, Action & Priorities What must we do and how will we make it happen?  How do we behave?  What is not negotiable?  What turns us on?  What assumptions guide us? Organis-ational Character What is our organizational character?  How will we evolve as a business?  What makes us different?  What is our value proposition?  What is our org sustainability model? Business Recipe How do we create value ?   Why do we matter?  What value do we deliver? Whom do we serve?  What are our personal objectives Purpose Why do we exist?
“ We are so unique that we have no competition in the market”  4 NO COMPETITORS
[object Object]
[object Object]
Competitor Analysis Image Advertising Credit Policies Sales Method Appearance Location Company Reputation Expertise Stability Reliability Service Selection Quality Price Products Importance to Customer Competitor C Competitor B Competitor A Weakness Strength My Business FACTOR
“ We will work out our revenue and cost model as we go along”  5 NO BUSINESS MODEL
Business Model   Critical Success Factors Investment  Costs Source of Revenue Income Stream 3 Income Stream 2 Income Stream 1
Key questions for building a business model   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Business Model Diagram New Business Inputs Required (Cost Drivers)  People Product Premises Marketing  etc.  Buyers What they buying Range of products or services Volumes; Frequency  How they pay Timing of payment Up Front Investment Equipment Premises Branding  Training  Working Capital Etc Input Output Input $ $ $ Critical Success Factors What are the factors that are required to ensure that this model works?  Revenue  Costs  Investment
“ We are four CAs so all is okay”  6 NO BALANCE IN THE TEAM
0 Rands Revenue Investment Extremist Revolutionary Growth Entrepreneur Lifestyle  Entrepreneur Survivalist Breadline Time Types of Entrepreneurs
The Entrepreneurial Team Creativity and Innovation General management skills, business know-how and networks Low High High Source: Timmons & Spinelli. New Venture Creation.2004. McGraw Hill.  Manager, administrator Promoter Entrepreneurial Team Inventor
Quality of the team ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Timmons & Spinelli. New Venture Creation.2004. McGraw Hill.
“ Who cares about cash when you’ve got the profit margins we’ve got ”  7 NO CASHFLOW FORECAST
Financial Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Financial Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cash Flow Forecast (NB) =  _ _ + + M5 Budget =  _ _ + + M6 Budget … Units Sold =  =  =  =  =  Closing Cash Balance _ _ _ _ _ Variable Cash Outflows _ _ _ _ _ Fixed Cash Outflows + + + + + Cash Inflows + + + + + Opening Cash Balance Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
Sales Forecast * State the assumptions on which these numbers are based c Cat 2 Units Sold* d Sales Price Per Unit* cxd=Y Category 2 TOTAL M5 Budget M6 Budget … Z + Y Monthly Total axb=Z Category 1 TOTAL b Sales Price Per Unit* a Cat 1 Units Sold* Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
Start Up Expenses XXX Other loans XXX Working capital  XXX Reserve for contingencies XXXX TOTAL  XXX Other expenses  XXX Advertising and promotions  XXXX TOTAL XXX Bank loans XXX Owners investment  Sources of Capital   XXX Opening inventory  XXX Location and admin  XXX Capital equipment XXX Real estate Start Up Expenses
P & L Forecast _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Expenses = = = = = = = Profit before tax = = = = = = = Gross Profit _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Cost of Sales =  _ + M5 Budget =  _ + M6 Budget … =  =  =  =  =  Profit after tax _ _ _ _ _ Tax Expense + + + + + Revenue Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
P & L Forecast EXAMPLES Salaries & wages  Other operating expenses  Interest payments  Depreciation  EXAMPLES Direct cost of goods sold _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Expenses = = = = = = = Profit before tax = = = = = = = Gross Profit _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Cost of Sales =  _ + M5 Budget =  _ + M6 Budget … =  =  =  =  =  Profit after tax _ _ _ _ _ Tax Expense + + + + + Revenue Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
Cash Flow Forecast (NB) =  _ _ + + M5 Budget =  _ _ + + M6 Budget … Units Sold =  =  =  =  =  Closing Cash Balance _ _ _ _ _ Variable Cash Outflows _ _ _ _ _ Fixed Cash Outflows + + + + + Cash Inflows + + + + + Opening Cash Balance Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
Cash Flow Forecast EXAMPLES Cash sales of goods or services Collection of accounts receivable Interest earned Sales of fixed assets or investments Capital from investor Loan received EXAMPLES Payment of cash expenses Payment to creditors Payment of salaries and wages Purchase of inventory for cash Purchase of fixed assets or investments Payback loans Payout dividends =  _ _ + + M5 Budget =  _ _ + + M6 Budget … Units Sold =  =  =  =  =  Closing Cash Balance _ _ _ _ _ Variable Cash Outflows _ _ _ _ _ Fixed Cash Outflows + + + + + Cash Inflows + + + + + Opening Cash Balance Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
Balance Sheets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],End Y2 TOTAL LIAB & EQUITY  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liabilities & Equity   TOTAL ASSETS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Assets End Y3 End Y1  Opening
Balance Sheets Goods or resources owned by the business to be transformed utilized / realized in 1 year  Goods or resources owned by the business that have a life span exceeding 1 year  Amounts owed by the business to be paid back within 12 months Amounts owed by the business to be paid back after 12 months Portion of the business attributable to the owners Total amount OWNED by the business  Total amount OWED by the business to lenders or owners  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],End Y2 TOTAL LIAB & EQUITY  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liabilities & Equity   TOTAL ASSETS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Assets End Y3 End Y1  Opening
“ We need R10m in venture capital and then we will get going”  8 NO MOMENTUM UNTIL CAPITAL IS RAISED
New venture financing and the equity gap Stage Source Demand Supply Pre-seed Seed / Start-Up Early Later Founders  Family Friends Angels /  Angel Alliances Venture  Funds Private  Equity 100k 500k R5-10 mil R20 mil Government Funds Equity Gap Adapted from a model proposed designed by Jeffery E Sohl – Center for Venture Research, University of New Hampshire
Sources of finance for a business  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Debt Funding Sources Equity Funding Sources
The Art of Bootstrapping ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Kawasaki, G. The Art of the Start. 2004. Portfolio.
Funding Realities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ We have hired offices in Sandton, acquired Hummer’s for the directors and will pay the most to get the best”  9 NO FRUGALITY
BUDGETING MONITORING REPORTING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],10.Report results with  PURPOSE Entrepreneurial Financial Management
“ Our marketing plan will be a combination of print, TV and internet advertising”  10 MISGUIDED MARKETING PLAN
Simple Marketing Plan  List price  Discounts  Allowances  Payment period  Credit terms What does it cost us to produce the good or service?  What are the competition charging for similar goods or services?  Why are we charging more or less than the competition?  How would revenue and profits be affected if we increased or decreased the price?  You need to find a balance between attracting customers and making profits.  Price  Product variety Quality  Design  Features Packaging  Services  Warranties Returns  Does it meet a specific need? What is that need?  Must we customize our product or service?  Do we deliver the appropriate quality for the customer?  Good marketing begins with a good product or service.  Product  Considerations Key questions to be answered by the entrepreneur Description of the component Marketing mix component
Simple Marketing Plan Advertising  Sales force Public relations  Direct marketing How will we make customers aware of the benefits of buying our product or service?  Promotion is about communicating the merits of the product or service to target customers and persuading them to buy.  Promotion Channels  Coverage Transport Are we going to sell locally, regionally, nationally or globally?  How will we reach the customer?  Do we need more than one channel for reaching the customer?  Should we create our own distribution channel or partner with an established distributor?  This is about getting the product or service to the customer. Customers will only buy products or services that they have access to, thus it is critical to have distribution channels that reach the customer.  Place  Considerations Key questions to be answered by the entrepreneur Description of the component Marketing mix component
New Venture Creation Model  OPPORTUNITY Demand Passion Skills Resources STRUCUTRE Business Model Legal Form Tools / Facilities Team FUNDING Traditional financing Bootstrapping  Cash flow  SALES Product  Price  Promotion  Place  Word of mouth Growth Research BUSINESS PLAN
Focus points in a business plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Business In A Box www.biz-box.net Email – Slides   [email_address] Blog  –  Slides [email_address]

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Bad To Worse

  • 1. BAD TO WORSE Why Some Start-ups Go Down the Tubes … and Others Don't GREG FISHER #1 BESTSELLER
  • 2.  
  • 3. Top 10 Mistakes of Entrepreneurs
  • 4. “ I don’t care about the product, I just want to make loads of money” 1 NO REAL PASSION FOR THE BUSINESS
  • 5. Linking Market Demand with passion, skills and resources to create an entrepreneurial opportunity Market Demand Passion Skills Resources
  • 6. The Key Elements in Creating an Entrepreneurial Opportunity Opportunity Market Demand Passion Skills Resources Entrepreneur
  • 7.
  • 8. “ We want one so everyone will want one ” 2 NO UNDERSTANDING OF THE MARKET
  • 9.
  • 10. “ We are going to be just like Amazon.com, only better” 3 NO DIFFERENTIATION
  • 11. Assessing an Opportunity [VENTURE] Concept Attractiveness Competitive Advantage [ENTREPRENERIAL TEAM] Low Low High High Market Size Market Growth Differentiation Customer Need Skills Resources Passion / Energy Network 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
  • 12. Response [VENTURE] Concept Attractiveness Competitive Advantage [ENTREPRENERIAL TEAM] Low Low High High Avoid / Wait & Reassess in Future Build / hire / develop the required capabilities Identify / exploit a specific under served niche Revise product or business model Invest and pursue the opportunity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
  • 13. Strategy Formulation Questions What are the threats for the business? What are the opportunities for the business? What are our weaknesses? What are our strengths? Current status Where are we at? Who is responsible? What needs to happen in the next 30 days? What are our 1 year goals? What are our 3 year goals? Goals, Action & Priorities What must we do and how will we make it happen? How do we behave? What is not negotiable? What turns us on? What assumptions guide us? Organis-ational Character What is our organizational character? How will we evolve as a business? What makes us different? What is our value proposition? What is our org sustainability model? Business Recipe How do we create value ? Why do we matter? What value do we deliver? Whom do we serve? What are our personal objectives Purpose Why do we exist?
  • 14. “ We are so unique that we have no competition in the market” 4 NO COMPETITORS
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Competitor Analysis Image Advertising Credit Policies Sales Method Appearance Location Company Reputation Expertise Stability Reliability Service Selection Quality Price Products Importance to Customer Competitor C Competitor B Competitor A Weakness Strength My Business FACTOR
  • 18. “ We will work out our revenue and cost model as we go along” 5 NO BUSINESS MODEL
  • 19. Business Model Critical Success Factors Investment Costs Source of Revenue Income Stream 3 Income Stream 2 Income Stream 1
  • 20.
  • 21. Business Model Diagram New Business Inputs Required (Cost Drivers) People Product Premises Marketing etc. Buyers What they buying Range of products or services Volumes; Frequency How they pay Timing of payment Up Front Investment Equipment Premises Branding Training Working Capital Etc Input Output Input $ $ $ Critical Success Factors What are the factors that are required to ensure that this model works? Revenue Costs Investment
  • 22. “ We are four CAs so all is okay” 6 NO BALANCE IN THE TEAM
  • 23. 0 Rands Revenue Investment Extremist Revolutionary Growth Entrepreneur Lifestyle Entrepreneur Survivalist Breadline Time Types of Entrepreneurs
  • 24. The Entrepreneurial Team Creativity and Innovation General management skills, business know-how and networks Low High High Source: Timmons & Spinelli. New Venture Creation.2004. McGraw Hill. Manager, administrator Promoter Entrepreneurial Team Inventor
  • 25.
  • 26. “ Who cares about cash when you’ve got the profit margins we’ve got ” 7 NO CASHFLOW FORECAST
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. Cash Flow Forecast (NB) = _ _ + + M5 Budget = _ _ + + M6 Budget … Units Sold = = = = = Closing Cash Balance _ _ _ _ _ Variable Cash Outflows _ _ _ _ _ Fixed Cash Outflows + + + + + Cash Inflows + + + + + Opening Cash Balance Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
  • 30. Sales Forecast * State the assumptions on which these numbers are based c Cat 2 Units Sold* d Sales Price Per Unit* cxd=Y Category 2 TOTAL M5 Budget M6 Budget … Z + Y Monthly Total axb=Z Category 1 TOTAL b Sales Price Per Unit* a Cat 1 Units Sold* Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
  • 31. Start Up Expenses XXX Other loans XXX Working capital XXX Reserve for contingencies XXXX TOTAL XXX Other expenses XXX Advertising and promotions XXXX TOTAL XXX Bank loans XXX Owners investment Sources of Capital XXX Opening inventory XXX Location and admin XXX Capital equipment XXX Real estate Start Up Expenses
  • 32. P & L Forecast _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Expenses = = = = = = = Profit before tax = = = = = = = Gross Profit _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Cost of Sales = _ + M5 Budget = _ + M6 Budget … = = = = = Profit after tax _ _ _ _ _ Tax Expense + + + + + Revenue Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
  • 33. P & L Forecast EXAMPLES Salaries & wages Other operating expenses Interest payments Depreciation EXAMPLES Direct cost of goods sold _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Expenses = = = = = = = Profit before tax = = = = = = = Gross Profit _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Cost of Sales = _ + M5 Budget = _ + M6 Budget … = = = = = Profit after tax _ _ _ _ _ Tax Expense + + + + + Revenue Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
  • 34. Cash Flow Forecast (NB) = _ _ + + M5 Budget = _ _ + + M6 Budget … Units Sold = = = = = Closing Cash Balance _ _ _ _ _ Variable Cash Outflows _ _ _ _ _ Fixed Cash Outflows + + + + + Cash Inflows + + + + + Opening Cash Balance Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
  • 35. Cash Flow Forecast EXAMPLES Cash sales of goods or services Collection of accounts receivable Interest earned Sales of fixed assets or investments Capital from investor Loan received EXAMPLES Payment of cash expenses Payment to creditors Payment of salaries and wages Purchase of inventory for cash Purchase of fixed assets or investments Payback loans Payout dividends = _ _ + + M5 Budget = _ _ + + M6 Budget … Units Sold = = = = = Closing Cash Balance _ _ _ _ _ Variable Cash Outflows _ _ _ _ _ Fixed Cash Outflows + + + + + Cash Inflows + + + + + Opening Cash Balance Total Budget M12 Budget M4 Budget M3 Budget M2 Budget M1 Budget
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. “ We need R10m in venture capital and then we will get going” 8 NO MOMENTUM UNTIL CAPITAL IS RAISED
  • 39. New venture financing and the equity gap Stage Source Demand Supply Pre-seed Seed / Start-Up Early Later Founders Family Friends Angels / Angel Alliances Venture Funds Private Equity 100k 500k R5-10 mil R20 mil Government Funds Equity Gap Adapted from a model proposed designed by Jeffery E Sohl – Center for Venture Research, University of New Hampshire
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. “ We have hired offices in Sandton, acquired Hummer’s for the directors and will pay the most to get the best” 9 NO FRUGALITY
  • 44.
  • 45. “ Our marketing plan will be a combination of print, TV and internet advertising” 10 MISGUIDED MARKETING PLAN
  • 46. Simple Marketing Plan List price Discounts Allowances Payment period Credit terms What does it cost us to produce the good or service? What are the competition charging for similar goods or services? Why are we charging more or less than the competition? How would revenue and profits be affected if we increased or decreased the price? You need to find a balance between attracting customers and making profits. Price Product variety Quality Design Features Packaging Services Warranties Returns Does it meet a specific need? What is that need? Must we customize our product or service? Do we deliver the appropriate quality for the customer? Good marketing begins with a good product or service. Product Considerations Key questions to be answered by the entrepreneur Description of the component Marketing mix component
  • 47. Simple Marketing Plan Advertising Sales force Public relations Direct marketing How will we make customers aware of the benefits of buying our product or service? Promotion is about communicating the merits of the product or service to target customers and persuading them to buy. Promotion Channels Coverage Transport Are we going to sell locally, regionally, nationally or globally? How will we reach the customer? Do we need more than one channel for reaching the customer? Should we create our own distribution channel or partner with an established distributor? This is about getting the product or service to the customer. Customers will only buy products or services that they have access to, thus it is critical to have distribution channels that reach the customer. Place Considerations Key questions to be answered by the entrepreneur Description of the component Marketing mix component
  • 48. New Venture Creation Model OPPORTUNITY Demand Passion Skills Resources STRUCUTRE Business Model Legal Form Tools / Facilities Team FUNDING Traditional financing Bootstrapping Cash flow SALES Product Price Promotion Place Word of mouth Growth Research BUSINESS PLAN
  • 49.
  • 50.