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Weekly outlook mar 7 2016
1. Weekly Outlook
Monday 7th March with Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Forex and CFDs are high risk leveraged products that can result in losses greater than your initial deposit and you should
therefore only speculate with money you can afford to lose. FX and CFD trading are not suitable for everyone. Please
ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such
transactions. You should first carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite and only
invest funds you are prepared to lose entirely. For our full risk warning, please go to the end of this report.
WHEN: Thu, 10th March, 1245GMT (and 1330GMT)
LAST: -0.30% deposit rate
FORECAST: -0.40% deposit rate
Impact: Deteriorating Eurozone inflation, PMIs and
dovish noises coming out of the ECB Governing
Council, surely means the ECB is set to loosen
monetary policy, but by how much? Consensus expects
just another 10 basis points cut from the deposit rate
but the market seems to be pricing in 20bps (according
to the 2 year Shatz yield). Could it therefore be set up
for another disappointment? Well that would depend
upon any extension to QE. Again the euro has fallen in
front of the decision, but can Draghi win over the hawks
and deliver this time?
Key Economic Events
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Tue 8th Mar 02:00 China Trade Balance (Imports/Exports) -10.0%/-12.5% -18.8%/-11.4%
Tue 8th Mar 10:00 Eurozone GDP (revised) +0.3% +0.3%
Wed 9th Mar 15:00 Canada BoC monetary policy +0.50% +0.50%
Wed 9th Mar 15:30 US EIA crude oil inventories +10.4m
Wed 9th Mar 20:00 New Zealand RBNZ monetary policy +2.50% 2.50%
Thu 10th Mar 01:30 China CPI (& PPI) +1.9% (-4.9%) +1.8% (-5.3%)
Thu 10th Mar 12:45 Eurozone ECB monetary policy (& press conference) -0.40% deposit -0.30% deposit
Fri 11th Mar 09:30 UK Trade Balance -£10.3bn -£9.9bn
Fri 11th Mar 13:30 Canada Unemployment 7.2% 7.2%
Sat 12th Mar 05:30 China Industrial Production/Retail Sales +5.6%/+10.8% +5.9%/+11.1%
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1N.B. Please note all times are GMT, data source Reuters
Macro Commentary
After weeks of dovish hints and guidance from Mario Draghi, is the market again priced for disappointment from the
ECB? Consensus expects the ECB to cut the deposit rate by another 10 basis points to -0.4%, and also potentially
announce additional quantitative easing measures. However, this is all rather similar to the December meeting
when the market had priced in a 20bps point cut and additional monthly asset purchases. Traders were
disappointed on both counts and the euro rallied over 300 pips on the day. Is the market better prepared this time
around? A sharp euro rally in the past couple of days (helped by disappointment in US wage growth) from a much
higher base (currently more around $1.1000 than $1.0500) would suggest possibly so. But, although the yield on
the 2 year German Shatz (taken as a barometer for the ECB deposit rate) rallied sharply on Friday, it did so from a
record low at -0.58% and is still around -0.55% which suggests a potential 20 basis points cut is still priced in. And
what of further quantitative easing? This was expected in December but not delivered, but again there is some talk
of an extra €10bn or even €20bn of asset purchases a month, along with additional credit easing measures such as
extending the assets available for QE purchase. Disappointing Eurozone growth, falling core inflation and falling
PMIs call for further easing, but will a dovish Draghi win over the Governing Council and the market this time?
Must Watch for: ECB monetary policy (and press conference)
2. Weekly Outlook
Monday 7th March with Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
The dollar rally has been driven by an improvement in the inflation indicators in recent weeks but it will be
interesting to see whether the significant disappointment of a decline in average hourly earnings in Friday’s
Employment Situation will scupper that dollar rally. The Treasury yields will certainly be taken to be an indicator
of the moves. There are two factors at work though in the forex markets, with the improvement in the US dollar
and the general pick up in risk sentiment. This has helped to drive euro and yen weakness (seen as the two
safe haven plays, whilst the commodity currencies (especially the Australian dollar and the Canadian loonie)
have been the big winners. The average hourly earnings disappointment could scupper the dollar rally but this
would also help the commodity currencies too. Another factor at play this week is how the market is positioned
ahead of the ECB. Recently the euro has weakened as the market has factored in a cut to the deposit rate (in
the least), whilst the December disappointment is still fresh in the memory and this could drive a euro rebound
on the perverse expectation of another disappointment and that perhaps the German Shatz yielding -0.55% has
gone too far. Expect elevated volatility on euro crosses throughout the week amid the uncertainty.
WATCH FOR: Although we see limited US dollar driving data this week, three major central banks
reporting monetary policy will drive volatility on the Canadian & New Zealand dollars and especially on
the euro. China trade and inflation data will also drive volatility on risk appetite.
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2
FX Outlook
AUD/USD
Watch for: The recovery needs to hold above
the 23.6% Fib level to maintain the improvement
Outlook: What a rally! As base and precious
metals have continued to push higher the Aussie
has strengthened. The bull run has now broken
out above the key overhead resistance at
$0.7385 to a 7 month high. Can the move
sustain the breakout? It has certainly been a
very volatile move (trading outside the Bollinger
Bands) but momentum is very strong and the
RSI is not yet at 70. The bulls will now look to
use the support band $0.7300/$0.7385 to act as
a basis of support this week if the profit taking
sets in. The key support comes in at the
breakout level of $0.7240.
EUR/USD
Watch for: The old pivot at $1.1050 is again the
basis of resistance
Outlook: The sharp euro rally on a couple of
weaker US data points (ISM Non-manufacturing
employment component and average hourly
earnings) have driven a rally on the pair.
Interestingly though, Friday’s high came just
under the old long term pivot level at $1.1050,
which is an overhead barrier to gains. The near
term technical momentum indicators have turned
higher and bulls have the momentum as we
approach the ECB meeting this week. Trading
between the two big long term pivots at $1.0800
and $1.1050 suggests a rather neutral
positioning, so it will be all down to the ECB to
drive direction this week.
3. Weekly Outlook
Monday 7th March with Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Equity Markets
With risk appetite having improved so dramatically in recent weeks, driven by the decisive rebound in metals
and the oil price, the outlook for equity markets has turned sharply around. However, can the move last? With
US earnings season all but done and dusted, the rather concerning statistic is that S&P 500 revenues (ie the
data that cannot be massaged by any share buyback program) have decline by 3.9%. Although the huge
decline in energy sector revenues, even when this sector is stripped out the revenue growth is a miserly +0.3%.
This does not bode well for US growth in the long run. However, the rally on equities could certainly be
dependant on the continued improvement seen in copper and oil. These improving outlooks could also be given
a shot in the arm should there be any further easing measures from the People’s Bank of China, as the recent
50 basis points cut to the Reserve Requirement Ratio has again aided risk appetite for commodities and
subsequently equities. Although the equity markets have made some considerable progress in the last few
weeks, there are now some extremely important longer term technical crossroads for the FTSE 100 and the
German DAX to break through this week. Since the FTSE 100 topped out in April 2015, the RSI momentum
indicator has not managed to decisively break above 60, a level at which is currently being tested. Furthermore,
the German DAX has again rallied up to its key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the big October 2014/April
2015 bull run. Both markets need to break these shackles to continue the rally this week.
WATCH FOR: The China trade and inflation data will be a big guide for market sentiment, whilst the
Eurozone markets will be geared towards a crucial ECB meeting on Thursday.
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3
DAX Xetra
Watch for: The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is
consistently a key pivot
Outlook: I may have mentioned it once or twice
before, but the DAX consistently turns at the big
Fibonacci retracements of the Oct 2014/Apr
2015 rally from 8355 to 12390. In my experience
this is probably the best chart I have ever seen
for Fib levels acting as key pivot points. Last
Friday the DAX hit the 61.8% Fib at 9897 and
has stuttered. This level coincides with the late
January high and is a level that needs to be
breached to continue the rally this week. A
successful breakout opens the next resistance at
10,122/10,165, with 9600 supportive
FTSE 100
Watch for: The RSI is the key indicator to watch
this week
Outlook: The upside break above the old key
reaction high from February at 6115 was an
extremely important technical improvement as
this was the first time since the market topped
out in April 2015 that a key lower high had been
breached. This has significant implications for
the longer term technicals now. However this
rally is now up against another key test this
week, with the RSI again up to 60. This is the
level where time and time again the big rallies
have failed in recent months. The bulls need to
stay strong to prevent the profit-takers from
moving in this week. The next price resistance is
the late December high of 6315, with the support
band now 6065/6115.
Index Outlook.
4. Weekly Outlook
Monday 7th March with Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
What a rally on gold, as the precious metal continues higher into 13 month highs. The move is coming with
dollar strength, which is perhaps the biggest surprise. Perhaps gold buyers are more focused on the continuing
drive towards negative interest rates, something that should theoretically be of benefit. The volatility in the oil
price has subsided in recent weeks and this settling of the market seems to have coincided with the news of a
potential production freeze between OPEC members and Russia. According to the Energy Information
Administration, US oil production fell to 9.08m bpd last week which is its lowest since November 2014 and a
sixth week of declines. So there seems to be some movement n production finally, which should underpin the
oil price at least until the key talks over production freezes between OPEC and Russia resume this month, at
which point volatility is likely to explode again. Beyond that, the next OPEC meeting is not until June.
The rally on Treasury yields have helped to support the rally on the dollar in recent weeks, however will this
mixed payrolls report lead to a near term stalling of the rally? The March FOMC meeting is on the near term
horizon now and will be a factor in trading in the coming week as traders position themselves for a key meeting.
The volatility on Eurozone sovereign bonds will remain elevated moving into such a critical ECB meeting this
week with so many potential outcomes.
WATCH FOR: China trade balance and inflation, along with ECB meeting to drive volatility
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4
Gold
Watch for: The bulls continue to drive the gold
price higher
Outlook: Gold was flying around with a negative
correlation to the dollar in the wake of the
Payrolls report on Friday. The bull run is now
over 21% from the December low at $1045., and
the upside break above the February high
continues the rally to move to new 13 months
highs and opens the January 2015 at $1306.
There is now a support band to work from this
week between $1248/$1261. I am still keeping
an eye on potential momentum divergences but
for now the rally is strong.
Markets Outlook
Brent Crude oil
Watch for: Bulls are drifting for a test of the
overhead resistance at $39.00
Outlook: The oil price continues to creep higher.
Although volatility seems to have subsided from
the hectic trading days of January and February,
but there now seems to be an acceptance of the
oil price pushing higher. The fundamentals have
picked up and the technical breakout above
$36.25 has completed a key turnaround in
sentiment. The next upside resistance to be
tested is the 2016 high of $39.00 which will be
on the radar in the coming days if the
improvement continues. The 21 month
downtrend is now decisively broken which is a
key long term bearish indicator removed.
Technical traders will also be watching the RSI
which is at its highest level since October and a
move above 62. Key support is at
$31.80/$32.40.
5. Weekly Outlook
Monday 7th March with Richard Perry, Market Analyst
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5
Risk Warning for Financial Promotions
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independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such transactions. Before deciding to enter into FX, Bullion and/or
CFD trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should
only invest in FX, Bullion and/or CFD trading with funds you are prepared to lose entirely. Therefore, only your excess
funds should be placed at risk and anyone who does not have such excess funds should completely refrain from engaging
in FX and/or CFD trading. Do not rely on past performance figures. If you are in any doubt, please seek further
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