Driving profits from the web: Understand and exploit the huge potential of Ge...
Estela webinar
1. CSP Today Webinar
COST ASPECTS OF STE PLANTS
IN THE MENA REGION
Dr. Luis Crespo
President of ESTELA
2. Opportunities and value of current applications
of the different STE technologies
Strong PV competition
Low investment
Efficiency
& High Efficiency Hybridization will
Compressed enhance competitiveness
Air Rec. Tower
Parab. trough
Fresnel Molten salt tower Molten salt tower
Steam Tower Parab. trough Parab. trough
Parab. trough
Fresnel
Integrated Peak Power Dispatchable Base Load
Solar Field (No storage) (Medium size storage) (Large storage)
3. Cost and revenues issues
The cost of the electricity depends on the DNI, efficiency, CAPEX,
OPEX, financial costs, public supports, expected life, … (LCOE?)
The revenues depends on the dispatch profile and the hourly and
seasonally associated prices along with the electricity price evolution
All projects until now have been promoted on a FiT or PPA basis
Although the “golden end” is a relevant aspect of these plants there
are no commercial ways to take it into account when determining the
financing terms and conditions. It must be explained to Policy Makers
as a big added value when establishing the support programs
Therefore the only practical approach to refer to the cost of STE
electricity will be to determine which is the PPA or FiT that allows
a STE plant to be built.
5. The “harmonization” model for STE costs
“Discount” factors
Plant size
PPA or FiT
duration
Actual PPA for a PPA escalation Harmonized PPA for
given project at a rate a typical project at
certain location
Grants the same location
under specific
without public
support
Concessional support
circumstances
loans
Specific Financial
conditions
Loan duration
DISCLAIMER: This attempt to provide reference prices must be considered approximated. There are many
default values that might be not applicable to all projects as well as some country specific requirements.
6. Cost reduction estimations:
The view from the Industry in 2012
Stars corresponds to “normalized”
PPAs or FiTs in 2012 at their respective
locations in Spain, USA, India, Morocco
South Africa and Israel
Hypothesis: 30 GW
will be built at that time
7. What has been done so far
(Stars mean achievements)
Cost = Cost reduction
Performance increase
Cost reduction:
Structure
Tubes
Mirrors
Performance increase
Cost =
Source: The increase of financing
Deloitte, Macroeconomic Impact of STE sector in Spain, 2010 costs has counteracted this
Cost breakdown for a 50 MW plant with 7 h. storage effort to some extend
8. The role of reductions on
investment and financial costs
Redution of PPA with CAPEX Reduction of PPA with interest rate
35% 14%
30% 12%
PPA reducction
PPA reduction
25% 10%
20% 8%
15% 6%
10% 4%
5% 2%
0% 0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
CAPEX reduction Interest rate
innovation
Performance increase will play
as important role as CAPEX reduction
Both effects together will make
STE plants affordable
9. The tool for policy makers
Cost/kWh
The basic questions:
STE Plant Conventional
How much will a support program cost?
Plant
Gap1
How much can the economy of my
country benefit from it?
Year 1 Year n
Years
Power Energy Cost Returns of all kind Diference
Year -2 0 0 0 R1 Positive
Year -1 0 0 0 R2 Increasing
Year 1 Gap 1 P1 E1 G1xE1 R3 Increasing
Year 2 Gap 2 P2 E2 G1xE1 + G2xE2 R4 Increasing
Year 3 Gap 3 P3 E3 G1xE1 + G2xE2 + G3xE3 R5 Increasing
… … … … … … Increasing
Year n 0 Pn En G1xE1 + G2xE2 + G3xE3 + …Gn-1xEn-1 Rn Increasing
Year n+1 0 En+1 idem Rn+1 Increasing
… Increasing
Year 25 0 P25 E25 G2xE2 + …. R25 Golden End starts
10. Thank you for your attention
www.estelasolar.eu
lcr@estelasolar.eu
