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Global Monitoring to Local Actions:
The Case of Stripe Rust in Ethiopia in
2013/14
D.P. Hodson1, B. Abeyo1, A. Badebo1, Y. Alemayehu1,
B. Hundie2, G. Woldeab3 and B. Girma2
1 CIMMYT-Ethiopia, 2 EIAR, Kulumsa Research Center, 3 EIAR, Ambo PPRC
Photo: Dr Bedada Girma, DRRW/EIAR
Introduction
• Global rust monitoring system – catalyzed by stem rust
(Ug99), but a valuable resource for all wheat rusts (5000+
stripe rust records)
• 2013 stripe rust
outbreaks across a
large region
• Similarities to 2010
(a major stripe rust
epidemic year)
• Basis for alerts to
other regions (East
Africa)
Early warning – Ethiopia 2013
Ethiopia: Local Action Steps
Global Rust Monitoring System Assessment
CWANA – Yellow Rust
Outbreaks (surveys)
Climatic
Conditions –
favourable for
yellow rust?Regional Winds
Rust Caution
– May 17th
The Fear – Another Year Like 2010
2010: Ethiopia
experienced the
largest stripe rust
epidemic in recent
history
Over 600,000 ha of
wheat affected
An estimated 60
million Ethiopian Birr
(US$3.2 million) were
spent on fungicides
Large production
losses were observed
Photo: Ayele Badebo, CIMMYT
Initial Main Season Outbreaks
• When & where did stripe rust first appear?
2010: Assasa Plain, August
(early occurrence)
2013: Assasa Plain, August
(early occurrence)
Not a promising start to the 2013 season?, but ……
Overview: Local Actions 2013
Multiple Stakeholders: CIMMYT, EIAR, MoA Extension Directorate, ATA, FAO, Animal &
Plant Health Directorate, Regional Ag Bureaus, etc …
Survey
Planning
Meeting
Belg
Season
Surveys
Key
Stakeholder
Planning
Meeting
Timely Chemical Control
Early Main
Season
Surveys
Regular Situation
Updates + Forecasts
Full Main
season
Surveys
2013 Season Outcomes
• Based on early warning, local actions
contributed to staying ahead of the disease
– Timely surveys (Belg season, early main season)
– Farmer awareness
– Strategic stocks of fungicide
– Timely + effective chemical control
– Good information exchange
Regular (weekly) Situation Updates (Disease +
Control)
Element of forecasting – Daily +
forecast wind movements
Continued comprehensive survey
effort (better timing in 2013)
2010 2013
Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
Stripe rust outcomes: 2010 & 2013
2010 2013
Stripe Rust Hotspots - From Survey Data
Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
National Cereal Yield Gains vs Previous Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum
2.77
5.03
0.66
15.51
13.67
%
y
i
e
l
d
G
a
i
n
2010 % Yield Gain (vs 2009)
2010 % Gain
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum
11.09
5.49
12.18
5.39
11.49
%
y
i
e
l
d
g
a
i
n
2010 & 2013 % Yield Gain (vs previous year)
2010 % Gain
2013 % Gain
All cereals – except wheat – performed well in 2010All cereals – especially wheat – performed well in 2013
Source: CSA, 2011, 2013
Shift to Resistant Cultivars – Played a major role
S / MS
R / MR
Unknown
Known Cultivars – On-farm Survey Data
2010 2013
Conclusion
• 2013 was a high risk year for stripe rust in Ethiopia
• Early warning, good planning and effective on the
ground actions had a positive influence
• Positive actions, post 2010 epidemic, almost
certainly contributed to making 2013/14 a record
wheat production year for Ethiopia. Key factors were:
– Rapid spread of rust resistant cultivars that
dramatically reduced the vulnerability of the
Ethiopian wheat crop
– Timely and coordinated surveillance efforts, coupled
to good information exchange amongst different
stakeholders, resulted in effective control and
awareness campaigns that targeted emerging stripe
rust outbreaks
Looking Ahead: 2014/15 Season
• Rust threats continue:
– Stripe Rust: Unusual early
outbreaks already seen in 2014.
Close monitoring needed on
susceptible cultivars if conditions
prove to be suitable.
– Stem Rust: Most widely grown
cultivar “Digalu” totally susceptible
to race TKTT-. High risk situation
for 2014/15
• Planning already started – EAAPP
survey plans in place, Key
stakeholder planning meeting
held on 22nd April
Yellow rust
infections –
Debre Zeit
17th April
2014
Digalu: 100% loss Nov 2013
Acknowledgements
• Bill & Melinda Gates
Foundation
• USAID
• DRRW
• EAAPP (World Bank)
• EIAR + RARI’s
• CIMMYT
• ICARDA
• Ministry of Agriculture
(Extension, Plant & Animal
Health Directorates)
• FAO
• ATA
• Regional Agricultural
Bureaus
• Ethiopian Seed Enterprise
• Regional Seed Enterprises
• USDA-ARS Cereals Disease
Laboratory, Minnesota
• Global Rust Reference
Centre, Denmark
• Cambridge University, UK
• THE FARMERS OF
ETHIOPIA!

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Hodson et al_global_monitoring_local_actions

  • 1. Global Monitoring to Local Actions: The Case of Stripe Rust in Ethiopia in 2013/14 D.P. Hodson1, B. Abeyo1, A. Badebo1, Y. Alemayehu1, B. Hundie2, G. Woldeab3 and B. Girma2 1 CIMMYT-Ethiopia, 2 EIAR, Kulumsa Research Center, 3 EIAR, Ambo PPRC Photo: Dr Bedada Girma, DRRW/EIAR
  • 2. Introduction • Global rust monitoring system – catalyzed by stem rust (Ug99), but a valuable resource for all wheat rusts (5000+ stripe rust records) • 2013 stripe rust outbreaks across a large region • Similarities to 2010 (a major stripe rust epidemic year) • Basis for alerts to other regions (East Africa)
  • 3. Early warning – Ethiopia 2013 Ethiopia: Local Action Steps Global Rust Monitoring System Assessment CWANA – Yellow Rust Outbreaks (surveys) Climatic Conditions – favourable for yellow rust?Regional Winds Rust Caution – May 17th
  • 4. The Fear – Another Year Like 2010 2010: Ethiopia experienced the largest stripe rust epidemic in recent history Over 600,000 ha of wheat affected An estimated 60 million Ethiopian Birr (US$3.2 million) were spent on fungicides Large production losses were observed Photo: Ayele Badebo, CIMMYT
  • 5. Initial Main Season Outbreaks • When & where did stripe rust first appear? 2010: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence) 2013: Assasa Plain, August (early occurrence) Not a promising start to the 2013 season?, but ……
  • 6. Overview: Local Actions 2013 Multiple Stakeholders: CIMMYT, EIAR, MoA Extension Directorate, ATA, FAO, Animal & Plant Health Directorate, Regional Ag Bureaus, etc … Survey Planning Meeting Belg Season Surveys Key Stakeholder Planning Meeting Timely Chemical Control Early Main Season Surveys Regular Situation Updates + Forecasts Full Main season Surveys
  • 7. 2013 Season Outcomes • Based on early warning, local actions contributed to staying ahead of the disease – Timely surveys (Belg season, early main season) – Farmer awareness – Strategic stocks of fungicide – Timely + effective chemical control – Good information exchange
  • 8. Regular (weekly) Situation Updates (Disease + Control)
  • 9. Element of forecasting – Daily + forecast wind movements
  • 10. Continued comprehensive survey effort (better timing in 2013) 2010 2013 Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
  • 11. Stripe rust outcomes: 2010 & 2013 2010 2013 Stripe Rust Hotspots - From Survey Data Total Survey n = 1084 fields Total Survey n = 1292 fields
  • 12. National Cereal Yield Gains vs Previous Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum 2.77 5.03 0.66 15.51 13.67 % y i e l d G a i n 2010 % Yield Gain (vs 2009) 2010 % Gain 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Teff Barley Wheat Maize Sorghum 11.09 5.49 12.18 5.39 11.49 % y i e l d g a i n 2010 & 2013 % Yield Gain (vs previous year) 2010 % Gain 2013 % Gain All cereals – except wheat – performed well in 2010All cereals – especially wheat – performed well in 2013 Source: CSA, 2011, 2013
  • 13. Shift to Resistant Cultivars – Played a major role S / MS R / MR Unknown Known Cultivars – On-farm Survey Data 2010 2013
  • 14. Conclusion • 2013 was a high risk year for stripe rust in Ethiopia • Early warning, good planning and effective on the ground actions had a positive influence • Positive actions, post 2010 epidemic, almost certainly contributed to making 2013/14 a record wheat production year for Ethiopia. Key factors were: – Rapid spread of rust resistant cultivars that dramatically reduced the vulnerability of the Ethiopian wheat crop – Timely and coordinated surveillance efforts, coupled to good information exchange amongst different stakeholders, resulted in effective control and awareness campaigns that targeted emerging stripe rust outbreaks
  • 15. Looking Ahead: 2014/15 Season • Rust threats continue: – Stripe Rust: Unusual early outbreaks already seen in 2014. Close monitoring needed on susceptible cultivars if conditions prove to be suitable. – Stem Rust: Most widely grown cultivar “Digalu” totally susceptible to race TKTT-. High risk situation for 2014/15 • Planning already started – EAAPP survey plans in place, Key stakeholder planning meeting held on 22nd April Yellow rust infections – Debre Zeit 17th April 2014 Digalu: 100% loss Nov 2013
  • 16. Acknowledgements • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation • USAID • DRRW • EAAPP (World Bank) • EIAR + RARI’s • CIMMYT • ICARDA • Ministry of Agriculture (Extension, Plant & Animal Health Directorates) • FAO • ATA • Regional Agricultural Bureaus • Ethiopian Seed Enterprise • Regional Seed Enterprises • USDA-ARS Cereals Disease Laboratory, Minnesota • Global Rust Reference Centre, Denmark • Cambridge University, UK • THE FARMERS OF ETHIOPIA!