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Global Polyolefins Olefins Outlook '09
1. Chow Bee Lin, senior editor, manager, ICIS SCG Plastics Seminar, Dubai, UAE September 29, 2009 Global polyolefins & olefins overview Prema Viswanathan, deputy managing editor, ICIS www.icis.com
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3. PE 3.65m PE 1.55m PE 1.27m PE 750kt PE 1.035 PE 7.16m PE 1.91m PE 2.13m Global PE capacity - 73m tonnes Note: Japan’s, Taiwan’s & Singapore’s PE data includes EVA. PE 10.8m PE 3.9m
4. PE 1.95m PE 0.68m PE 0.5m PE 0.7m PE 11.59m Global PE demand – 67m tonnes (2008) PE 2.39m PE 1.08m PE 0.8m PE 1.3m PE 3.1m Note: Japan’s, Taiwan’s & Singapore’s PE data includes EVA. PE 3.4m
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7. Who is most vulnerable? Asian Contract Pricing formulas offer Protection if hedged against naphtha Taiwan’s CP Eu + US + CFR Asia + FOB Korea Japanese crackers domestic sales 1.4-1.5N + alpha Korean exporter’s FOB price CFR NE Asia - alpha Indonesian contracts CFR SE Asia +/- alpha Most vulnerable will be non-integrated producers dependent Spot olefin pricing
8. Source: ICIS pricing Rising naphtha squeezes ethylene spot sales Healthy margins for cracker operators to sell Spot Naphtha uptrend squeezes cracker margins, no spot sales
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11. PP 1.35m PP 0.51m PP 0.2m PP 0.8m PP 10.29m Global PP demand 45m t/y (2008) PP 1.8m PP 0.94m Note: Thailand’s and Singapore PE data includes EVA. *Industry estimated. PP 0.5m PP 1.8m PP 2.8m Sources: Industry, ICIS pricing
12. PP 3.7m PP 2.11m PP 0.37m PP 0.65m PP 0.49kt PP 7.54m PP 1.26m PP 2.03m Global PP capacity 48m t/y (2008) Note: Thailand’s and Singapore PE data includes EVA. PP 5.3m PP 3.1m Sources: Industry, ICIS pricing
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15. Asia C3 surges on tight supply But outlook for suppliers less rosy in Q4 Source: ICIS pricing
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