CONTRACT REVIEW SEMINAR ON REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRENDS

CONTRACT REVIEW SEMINAR
Mbaye Yade
Regional Coordinator ReSAKSS WA

Informing Agricultural
Trends and Livelihoods
in West Africa

OUTLINE
• INTRODUCTION
• CAADP
• ReSAKSS
• PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS
• TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND
LIVELIHOODS
• CONCLUSIONS

Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 2

INTRODUCTION
• CGIAR INITIATIVE LED BY IFPRI: => promote more efficient
policies and allocations of scarce public resources through a
network of partners sharing data, tools for policy and institutional
analysis, and analytical outputs:
– FOCUS ON SOME COUNTRIES WITH HIGH BUDGET NATIONAL SAKSS
FUNAED BY DONORS
– SUPPLY DRIVEN
– 3 SAKSS nodes and a continent wide one
• CAADP CONTEXT: focus on the support to REC’s to implement,
monitor and evaluate agricultural policies and strategies:
– BUILD ON EXISTING NETWORKS
– IMPLEMENT NATIONAL FOCAL GROUP CONCENT
– MOBILISE ANA STRENGTHEN NATIONAL ANA REGIONAL CAPACITIES
ANA EXPERTISE
– BROADER GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE
• ReSAKSS WA CURRENTLY FUNAED BY DFID, SIDA AND USAID


CAADP: MAIN FEATURES &
PRINCIPLES
 AU PROGRAM: OWNED BY AFRICAN COUNTRIES
 AFRICAN LED ANA GROWN AS PART OF NEPAD PROCESS:
UNLIKE SAP
 OBJECTIVES ANA TARGETS SET BY HSG
 ALIGNMENT OF DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE WITH CAADP
OBJECTIVES ANA PRINCIPLES
 INWARD LOOKING: UNLIKE LAGOS PLAN OF ACTION
 AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1
 TARGET GOAL OF 6% GROWTH RATE
 INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE)
 FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT
 EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES
 FOCUS ON GOVERNANCE: POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW,
ACCOUNTABILITY
 INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY


ECOWAP/CAADP THEMES

• improving water management
• sustainable farm development
• improved management of other shared
natural resources
• development of agricultural chains and
market promotion
• prevention and management of food crises
and other natural disasters
• Institutional building

RESAKSS:
KNOWLEDGE SUPPORT
FOR PEER REVIEW ANA POLICY DIALOGUE

COUNTRY STRATEGIC
COUNTRY SUPPORT ANALYSIS
NODE
NARS/GOV Regional
SAKSS
Nodes
CGIAR

ENA
USERS COORDINATION
LOCAL GOVERNANCE
ORG
RECs / SROs

COUNTRY LEVEL REGIONAL LEVEL CONTINENT LEVEL
Support for planning, Support for Support for Policy
Implementation, & Regional Coordination and Dialogue and
Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa
Progress Review Peer Review Mutual Review 66
Page
Page

ReSAKSS WA
• VALUE ADDITION:
– Shared/credible database
– Analytical expertise and agenda
– Tracking and Monitoring Support
– Policy Dialogue;
• Facilitate access by ECOWAS and its
member states to policy-relevant analyses
of the highest quality 
– generate necessary knowledge to improve
policy making
– track progress /document success
– derive lessons that can feed into the review
and learning processes

Logical Framework of
ReSAKSS
• 1. Strategic Analysis
– Policy and Investment
Options
– Spatial Analysis
– Monitoring and Evaluation
• 2. Knowledge Management
• 3. Capacity Building

ACHIEVEMENTS
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment
Options

• Joint project WARDA ReSAKSS WA
“Stratification of Rice and Maize
Production Systems in Support for
Investment Decisions”
• Climate change adaptation study: estimate
impact of possible climate change on the
future growth potential of West Africa’s
agriculture


ACHIEVEMENTS
Options (cont.)


ACHIEVEMENTS
Options (cont.)
• Regional Strategic Priorities in Agriculture for
Growth and Poverty Reduction in West Africa
Study in collaboration with IFPRI
– the overall economic growth rates required to meet
key development targets
– the impacts of different agricultural sub-sectors on
agricultural GDP as well as total GDP and poverty
– the returns to productivity-enhancing investments vs.
reductions in barriers to trade and marketing
– the potential added returns to regional cooperation in
agricultural R&D and infrastructure investments
– the governance impact on regional cooperation and
growth


ACHIEVEMENTS
Options (cont.)

6
GDP AgGDP
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ACHIEVEMENTS
Options (cont.)

Average AgGDP annual growth in different scenarios
90
% Add gr fr catching-up yield potential

7
80 Add gr fr pest/weed control
Base
6
70
5 60
East
4 50
West
3 40
North
2 30 South
1 20
0
10

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ACHIEVEMENTS
Options (cont.)
Sub-sector’s contribution to total Agricultural growth

% Cereals Roots Pulse&oilseedl
8 Veg&fruit Cocoa Cotton
O.high-value Livestock Others
7

6

5

4

3

2

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ACHIEVEMENTS
Strategic Analysis - Spatial Analysis
Mapping Child Nutrition

• Child Stunting in WCA


ACHIEVEMENTS
Strategic Analysis - Spatial Analysis
Mapping Child Nutrition (cont.)

• TreNAs in Stunting in WCA


ACHIEVEMENTS
Strategic Analysis - Monitoring and Evaluation

• Study on the progress of the agricultural sector
and households’ livelihoods in West Africa:
– Agricultural expenditures in relation with the Maputo
declaration: >=10 % of national budget to agriculture
– Recent achievements and emerging trendss: ag
productivity and growth, poverty reduction and
alleviation of hunger and child malnutrition;
• AGRIS: ECOWAS/WAEMU/CILSS initiative for an
Integrated Information System on Agriculture
• CAADP M&E Framework

ACHIEVEMENTS
Knowledge Management

Technical Support to CAADP Round Table
Process at national and regional levels
• Facilitating National nodes
• Dissemination of analytical results:
– Abuja, October 2006: ECOWAS/IFPRI/IITA
– Accra, August 2007: WARDA/IITA-ReSAKSS
– Dakar, March 2008: RADI/IITA/WARDA
– Abuja May 2008: ECOWAS/IITA/WARDA
– Ouagadougou, June 2008: Trends
– Accra, May 2009: Trends

ACHIEVEMENTS
Capacity Building

• Policy Analysis and Modeling
– Modeling workshop for CAADP national
teams, March 12 – 15, 2007
– Technical workshop for the joint
IFPRI/IITA WCA study
– Methodological workshop for the study
on trends
• Geographic Information Systems
– Training for IITA GIS Collaborator

TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS
AGRICULTURAL FUNDING

• Left: Ag budget shares; right: Ag actual expenditure shares
• Downward trends
• In general: >10% for Sahelian countries and < % for coastal
countries except for Ghana
70
35

30 60

BURKINA FASO
25 50

BURKINA FASO

20 40
MALI

15 30

10 MALI
GHANA 20
BENIN
NIGER SENEGAL
5 NIGERIA 10 GHANA
TOGO
NIGERIA BENIN
COTE D'IVOIRE TOGO COTE D'IVOIRE
0 0
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008


TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND
LIVELIHOODS
AGRICULTURAL FUNDING (cont.)
• Left: ratio R1=share of ag expenditures/contribution of ag sector to overall
economic growth; right: investment share in ag expenditures;
• Ratio R1 and Investment share higher for Sahelian countries
100
NIGER

BURKINA FASO

75 SENEGAL MALI
NIGERIA

BENIN
50 GHANA

25
C. D'IVOIRE

TOGO

0
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008


LIVELIHOODS

• left: share of internal resources in ag expenditures; right: share of
internal resources in ag investments
• Ratios higher for coastal countries

100 100

GHANA
COTE D'IVOIRE 90 GHANA
TOGO

80 COTE D'IVOIRE
75
70
SENEGAL
BENIN 60
SN

50 50

MALI BENIN
40

30
25 MALI
BURKINA FASO
20
NIGER BURKINA FASO
10
NIGER TOGO
0 0
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008


LIVELIHOODS
• Share of individual sub sectors to ag expenditures
Production végétale Elevage Pêches, Forêts et Chasse

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%
BENIN BURKINA COTE GHANA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL TOGO
FASO D'IVOIRE


LIVELIHOODS

• Higher shares of agricultural expenditures and agricul-
tural investments are due more to external funding


LIVELIHOODS
ECONOMIC GROWTH

• Real GDP growth rate

Country/Period 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2003-2007

ECOWAS 2.2% 3.6% 8.0% 5.9%
ECOWAS without
Nigeria
1.2% 4.9% 4.1% 4.4%

Sahelian Countries 2.4% 5.4% 4.4% 5.2%

Coastal Countries 2.1% 3.3% 8.7% 6.1%
Coastal Countries
without Nigeria
0.5% 4.7% 4.0% 3.9%

LIVELIHOODS
ECONOMIC GROWTH (2003-2207) (cont.)

Growth rate Country
Negative Liberia
0 to 3% Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Togo
Bénin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Mali,
3 to 6%
Niger, Sénégal
More than 6% Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Cape-Verde

Per capita GDP Country
Less than 500 $ PPP Guinea Bissau, Liberia

500 to 1 000 $ PPP Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Togo

1 000 to 1 500$ PPP Bénin, Ghana, Nigeria, Sénégal
Mora than 1 500 $ PPP Cape-Verde, Côte d’Ivoire


1/ Share of agriculture – 2/ Contribution of
agriculture to economic growth

Period 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2003-2007
ECOWAS 31% 31% 32% 31%
ECOWAS without Nigeria 31% 30% 30% 29%
Sahelian Countries 28% 29% 28% 27%
Coastal Countries 31% 32% 32% 32%


1/ Growth rate of Value added per worker –
2/ Contribution of crop sub sector to ag growth


1/ Contribution of livestock to ag growth–
2/ Contribution of fisheries and forestry to ag growth


Distribution of Land among crops in ECOWAS Region

Grain Leg umes
9 .8 % C o f f ee/ C acao 8 .7%

C ereals , 56 .2 %

Oil Seed s 11.4 %

R o o t s and T ub ers
13 .9 %


Production Trends
Cereals- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)
Groundnuts- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)
Country Production Yield Population
maximal
Gambia 6,5% NT 3,4% Country Production Yield Yield
Niger 4,7% 3,3% 3,6% Niger 9,7% 2,4% 492
Mali 3,7% 2,1% 2,8%
Burkina Faso 4,2% NT 1 042
Burkina Faso 3,2% 2,2% 3,0%
Gambia 3,3% NT 1 240
Cape-Verde NT NT 2,4%
Mali 2,7% NT 1 152

Guinea Bissau NT NT 3,0% Guinea Bissau 1,4% 1,5% 1 200

Sénégal NT 1,6% 2,6% Sénégal -3,1% -1,1% 1 106

SAHEL 3,5% 2,3% 3,0% SAHEL NT -0,9% 939

Guinea 5,2% 0,1% 2,5% Ghana 10,6% 1,5% 1 354

Bénin 4,4% 1,8% 3,2% Sierra Leone 9,7% 1 028

Nigeria 4,1% NA 2,7% Nigeria 7,0% 1,4% 1 183

Togo 3,5% 2,9% 3,1% Guinea 7,0% 3,7% 1 446
Bénin 4,4% 1,9% 979
Ghana 2,5% 1,1% 2,4%
Liberia 3,2% 609
Côte d'Ivoire 0,5% 4,1% 2,4%
Togo 1,2% 1,8% 781
Liberia NT NT 4,0%
Côte d'Ivoire 0,4% 0,4% 928
Sierra Leone NT -1,5% 2,3%
ECOWAS 4,9%
ECOWAS 3,8% 2,7%


Production Trends

Cassava – Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)
Productio Maximal Yam- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007)
PAYS n Yield Yield
Sénégal 12,4% 6,8% 10 810 Maximal
Guinea Bissau 7,5% -0,8% 16 663 Country production Yield Yield
Niger 5,2% NA NA
Sahel 8,5% 3,2% 14 364 Bénin 3,8% NT 13 067
Bénin 7,9% 3,5% 13 050 Côte
Sierra Leone 6,4% -0,5% 5 990 d'Ivoire 3,3% 0,4% 8 882
Liberia 5,4% NT 6 909
Nigeria 3,2% 1,4% 13 284
Ghana 5,3% 1,5% 12 757
Ghana 2,9% NT 13 506
Guinea 3,9% 2,3% 8 025
Togo 2,9% -1,5% 7 787 Togo 2,6% 1,1% 10 997
Côte d'Ivoire 2,8% 1,3% 8 048 Coastal
Nigeria 2,3% 0,8% 12 505 Countries
without
Coastal
Countries Nigeria 3,8% NT 10 405
without Nigeria 5,0% 1,5% 10 479
ECOWAS without
NIGERIA 5,1% 1,4% 10 484
ECOWAS 3,1%

Cotton Production

• Upward trends until 2004/2005
800 000
• World market price drop 700 000
• Liberalisation problems 600 000
• Falling yields 500 000
400 000
300 000
200 000
100 000
0
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
Bénin Burkina Faso Côte d'Ivoire Mali


LIVELIHOODS
Irrigation
60%
49.6%
50% Developed area/total area cultivated
developed cultivated area /total area cultivated
40%

30%

17.8% 18.0%
20%
11.4%
6.8%
10% 5.5% 4.2% 1.9%
3.3% 2.6%
1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
0%
Mali Senegal Togo Burkina Côte Nigeria Niger Benin
Faso d'Ivoire

80%
68.5% 68.4%
70%
60%
41.4%
50% 44.6%
40% 31.5% 35.9%
30% 23.0%
15.7% 14.8%
20% 11.7%
10% 4.2%
0%
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Developed area/irrigable area cultivated developed area /developed area


LIVELIHOODS
Meat and Fish Production
Average Average
annual annual Average per Fish Per
growth Meat growth rate capita fish capita
rate of Meat Per Per of Fish production Needs
Meat capita capita Country production (kg) (kg Period
Countr productio consumptio Needs
y n n (kg) (kg) Period

Sénégal 1,1% 43 29 1994-2007
Mali 2,9% 16 20 1990-2006
Sierra
Niger 8,0% 14 15 1994-2007 Leone 28,4% 16 2002-2005

Mali -3,0% 9,4 8,0 1993-2005
Sénégal 4,4% 10 19 1990-2007
Côte
d'Ivoire 2,8% 8,0 2001-2005
Nigeria 13,6% 8 1997-2007

Benin -1,2% 5,4 1995-2008
Benin 3,7% 6 10 1997-2007

Burkina
Faso 4,3% 5 12 1990-2006 Togo 5,1% 4 1990-2007

Côte
d'Ivoire PT 4 2001-2007 Burkina
Faso 2,8% 0,7 2,0 1998-2008

Ghana PT 3 2000-2007

LIVELIHOODS
Poverty incidence


LIVELIHOODS
Poverty Trends
Poverty trends between the last 2 surveys

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Benin Ghana Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal
(2006/2007) (1999/2006) (2001/2006) (2005/2008) (1996/2004) (2202/2006)

initial ratio final ratio

Poverty reduction rates between the last 2 surveys

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Benin Ghana Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal
(2006/2007) (1999/2006) (2001/2006) (2005/2008) (1996/2004) (2202/2006)

Poverty reduction rate MDG Target


LIVELIHOODS
Stunting


LIVELIHOODS
Access to safe Water


LIVELIHOODS
Under 1 year Child Mortality


LIVELIHOODS
Under 5 years Child Mortality


LIVELIHOODS
Maternal Mortality


CONCLUSIONS
• Achievements
– Building of a strong Partnership with ECOWAS and other
regional and national Institutions in West Africa;
– Moving the CAADP Agenda;
– Establishing Country SAKSS;
– Development of a platform to inform Progresses in agriculture
and Livelihoods at national and regional levels.
• Prospects:
– Additional information needs have been widely identified =>
Regional studies to take into account the information gap to
improve agricultural policy making and agricultural program
design;
– Dissemination of the generated information and data;
– Effective Support to the national and regional CAADP M&E
Systems through the establishment of Country ReSAKSS nodes.


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