For the third year in a row. ILC-UK launched into the new year with events in Scotland with an upcoming event in England. These events, in partnership with the Actuarial Profession, and supported by Swiss Re, will explore how the perception of retirement is changing and could change in the future.
The original concept of retirement is being eroded. Increasing concern over the costs of retirement has led to a shift of responsibility from Government and the corporate sector to the individual. The State Pension Age has been increased and public and private pensions are being scaled back.
Individuals are likely to have to work longer, contribute more and receive less than earlier generations. However, we need also to reflect that the older population is a very heterogeneous group, and the current balance of public and private funding will vary dramatically across the population.
At the same time we have seen dramatic improvements in life expectancy, and there is a huge opportunity (a longevity dividend) if further increases in life expectancy are spent in good health. This is certainly the case if we don’t just prolong survival for those with disease but delay the onset of disease and its progression. This requires flexibility in encouraging those that can work to work beyond current state pension ages and in focusing healthcare to those that will benefit. It also means changing people's behaviours towards work and retirement by highlighting the implications and restrictions of a long life beyond retirement, dependant on state funding.
At these events we will highlight particular initiatives that might help this period of transition - for example:
• developing agreed metrics of health status;
• cross-generational sharing of concerns so that each generation understands the challenges faced by others;
• moving towards patient-centred healthcare where geriatricians and GPs consider the holistic health of the individual;
• recognising the benefits and costs of preventative medicine and avoiding the trap of always assuming preventative medicine is preferable because it will cost less (it may not);
• provision of a suitable level of post-retirement income for all members of society and understanding what balance of public and private pension provision can help in this aim.
ILC-UK will launch a think piece at these event which will explore the debate outlined above.
Agenda from the event
16:30 – 16:35
Welcome and introduction from chair, Stewart Ritchie, Past President of the Faculty of Actuaries
16:35 – 16:50
Professor Robert Raeside, Professor in Applied Statistics at the School of Accounting, Financial Services and Law, Edinburgh Napier University
16:50 – 17:05
Helen Chung, Swiss Re
17:05 – 17:20
George P Mackenzie, Registrar General and Keeper of the Records
17:20 – 17:35
David Sinclair, ILC-UK
17:35 – 17:40
Panel response: Drummond Black, FSB
17:40 – 18:25
Discussion and Q&A
18.25 - 18.30
Close from chair
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception of retirement - Edinburgh
1. Changing the perception
of retirement
9 February 2012
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
2. Welcome
Stewart Ritchie
Past President of the Faculty of Actuaries
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
3. Who will care for the elderly?
Professor Robert Raeside
Edinburgh Napier University
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
4. Who will care for the elderly?
LC-UK and the Actuarial Profession
debate: Changing the perception of
retirement
Professor Robert Raeside
Employment Research Institute
Edinburgh Napier University
Email: r.raeside@napier.ac.uk
5. Trends
Proportion of Population over 65
25
20
15
EU (27 countries)
Germany
10 Italy
United Kingdom Employment Rate of older
5 workers (55-64 yrs)
80
70
60
0 % 50
40
30
20
10
0
EU (27…
Germany
Italy
Czech Republic
Greece
France
Ireland
Spain
Poland
Denmark
Portugal
Estonia
Austria
Netherlands
Sweden
Cyprus
Belgium
United Kingdom
Eurostat Data
Country
6. UK Situation
Distribution of Houses by Occupant Age
30,000
Housing Trends
Number of households (Thousands)
30.00%
25,000
25.00%
All houses 2006
20,000 20.00% one person
All houses 2031
other multi-person
%
15.00%
15,000 lone parent
10.00% One person houses2006
cohabiting couple
10,000 married couple One person houses
5.00%
5,000 0.00%
Under 25 - 35 - 45 - 55 - 65 - 75 &
0
25 34 44 54 64 74 over
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
7. Basic Premises
1. As populations age and extended families
become less, people become more dependent
on social contact with friends.
2. Loneliness and social isolation are associated
with poorer mental and physical wellbeing
8. Percentage change in social support
Male Female Males Female
65-79 65-79 80+ 80+
Someone outside household 1.5 -1.2 9.2 0.6
Is there someone who will listen 1.1 4.1 -8.5 7.1
Is there someone who will help in a
crises 1.8 1.7 1.1 5.7
Is there someone you can relax with 4.9 3.1 -1.3 6.2
Anyone who really appreciates you 2.3 0.3 -3.3 7.3
Anyone you can count on for comfort 4.4 1.9 -1.1 5.1
Frequency of talking to neighbours 0.5 1.4 1.3 -3.8
Frequency of meeting people 0.6 0.4 -0.7 -2
Average 2.1 1.4 -0.4 3.3
9. Who gives support?
Percentage change since 1997
40
65-79 80*
nothing 30
written in 11 8
partner 45 30 20
child 15 43
Male
sibling 4 2 10
other
relative 5 4 0
friend
friend
child
child
sibling
sibling
nothing written in
nothing written in
partner
partner
other relative
other relative
friend 22 12 65-79
-10 80+
nothing
-20
written in 7 9
partner 22 6 Male Female
-30
child 26 46
Female
sibling 11 5
-40
other
relative 6 13 -50
friend 29 21
-60
10. Overall Satisfaction with Life
7
6.5
Mean 6
Satisfaction 5.5
5
4.5 UCL
4 LCL
3.5
Mean
65-79
65-79
Male
Male
Female
Female
Female
Female
65-79
65-79
Male
80+
Male
80+
80+
80+
1997 2007
11. Regression
Dependents
Overall Life Satisfaction General Happiness
Losing confidence Ability to Face Problems
Unhappy or Depressed
Independent Variables
Support – PC formed out of the five support variables
Frequency of meeting people
Support Person – Partner, Child or Friend Dummies
Control Variables
Health status over last 12 months
Financial status
Housing tenure
12. Overall Satisfaction with Life
65-79 yr olds 80+ yr olds
Standard Standard
Variable Coefficient Error P Value Coefficient Error P Value
(Constant) 7.079 .224 .000 7.275 .358 .000
frequency of talking to .017 .057 .772 .077 .086 .371
neighbours
frequency of meeting people .061 .065 .347 -.092 .098 .349
Support .182 .048 .000 .339 .089 .000
Males partner .163 .124 .188 -.044 .270 .870
child .420 .154 .007 .007 .248 .992
friend .030 .142 .833 .183 .319 .567
health status over last 12 -.500 .051 .000 -.739 .082 .000
months
financial situation -.199 .053 .000 .017 .097 .858
2
Adjusted R 24.7% 36.6%
(Constant) 7.178 .221 .000 6.556 .384 .000
frequency of talking to .256 .055 .000 .316 .078 .000
neighbours
frequency of meeting people -.027 .063 .663 -.124 .106 .245
Support .140 .054 .009 .188 .082 .023
partner .329 .137 .017 1.542 .385 .000
Females child -.032 .132 .810 -.078 .200 .695
friend -.067 .128 .602 .370 .240 .123
health status over last 12 -.355 .051 .000 -.506 .090 .000
months
financial situation -.300 .054 .000 .079 .102 .442
2
Adjusted R
20.8% 18.8%
13. Findings
• Low explanatory power
• Little evidence of the importance of who
gives support – but support is important
• Partner is positive while friend appears a
negative impact!
14. Conclusions
• Populations are ageing and the extended family is decreasing
• Social support is very important
• Seems more close family support
• Little reliance on friends
• Smaller networks but level of support is high
• Large multipurpose surveys might not be reaching the problem
17. Importance of Cars
Trends in Driving License holding
70+
60- 69
100
25- 59 Females 90
17- 24 80
70
Al l Ages Bus and Coach M e 61 - 69
al
C Passenger
ar 60
M e 70+
al
age
%
W k
al 50
Fem e 61 - 69
al
70+ C D i ver
ar r 40
Fem e 70+
al
60- 69 30
20
25- 59 Males 10
17- 24 0
Al l Ages 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0 20 40 60 80 Year
% of t r i ps
Difficulty in using
Gender Age Bus Taxi Train Car
60-69 yrs 18.87% 5.99% 13.76% 6.44%
Male
70+ yrs 26.01% 10.30% 19.68% 10.14%
60-69 yrs 24.29% 9.65% 18.53% 9.46%
Female
70+ yrs 40.32% 16.92% 25.83% 15.41%
18. A time to dance: health
systems for active retirement
Helen Chung
Swiss Re
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
19. A time to dance:
Health systems for longer lives
Helen Chung MBBS MSc AIA, Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re
ILC-UK and Actuarial Profession debate, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012
20. Healthy and active longer lives are
a reality for some, and could be for more
Source: Chelmsford Borough Council, Older People's calendar: Tea dance in the Banqueting Room at Hylands House
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 20
21. Challenges
for Health Systems:
– maintaining good health for longer
– staving off ill health
– treating and living with disease
Social
– retirement communities
– communities suitable to remain and retire in
Financial
– affording a healthy longer life
– when (and if) to retire?
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 21
22. Individuals are not saving adequately
The average annual amount individuals would have to save in order to achieve a
retirement income of 70% of salary (selected countries), EUR
14 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
United Germany Ireland France Spain Czech Poland Italy Turkey Hungary
Kingdom Republic
Source: Aviva, 2010
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 22
23. Can morbidity be compressed?
Source: Fries, Booth & Chakravarty, Journal of Aging Research, 2011
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 23
24. Longer lives come with altered healthcare
and prevention needs
chronic health problems have had time to accrue
over a lifetime
multiple chronic diseases are common
physiological and social vulnerabilities are greater
at oldest ages
increased risk of influenza, disability and falls
slower recovery
reduced mobility hampering access to care
higher personal care needs Source: WEF 2012: Global Aging: Peril or Promise?
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 24
25. Changing health systems for changing needs
Health systems must evolve in response to the ageing
of society to optimise health across the full life course
Greater emphasis on prevention and public health
Moving from hospital, acute care and institutional care
to community-based care
Shared responsibilities increase effectiveness and
efficiency: individuals to be partners in own care
Integration absolutely key: 'a coordinated continuum'
Education for health professionals to adapt
New models to draw on evidence
Source: WEF 2012: Global Aging: Peril or Promise?
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 25
26. Change your views on retirement
Helen Chung | Head of Medical Research, Swiss Re | ILC-UK, Edinburgh, 9 February 2012 26
Source: Ocean Garden's Retirement Village, Perth, Australia. www..oceangardens.com.au and iStockphoto/Georgy Markov
29. Scotland’s demography – an
aging population
George P MacKenzie
Registrar General and Keeper of the Records
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
30. Scotland's demography - an
ageing population
George MacKenzie
Registrar General and Keeper of the Records
ILC-UK and the Actuarial Profession debate: Changing the perception
of retirement - Edinburgh - 9th February 2012
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
31. National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
32. Overview of presentation
• Introduction
• Scotland’s current and future demographic
trends
• Scotland’s ageing population
• Households
• Questions
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
33. Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June
2010 was 5,222,100
6,000,000
1939 passes 5m
Fastest 1900 for the first time
percentage largest
5,000,000 increase 1974
rise
1876 and WW2* 5.4m
1912 highest
1878
first
Number of People
4,000,000 ever
estimated 1924
1890 largest level?
passes fall
3,000,000 and
4m sharpest 1971
1857
fall largest
passes
and
2,000,000 3m fastest
post
WW2 rise
1,000,000
0
1855
1862
1869
1876
1883
1890
1897
1904
1911
1918
1925
1932
1939
1946
1953
1960
1967
1974
1981
1988
1995
2002
2009
Year
Increase of 28,100 on 2009, highest since 1977
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
34. Births, actual1 and
projected2, Scotland, 1951-2035
120
Projected2
100
80
Persons ('000s)
60
40
20
0
1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
1
calendar year
2
2010-based mid-year projections National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
35. Deaths in Scotland – main causes
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Cancer
Coronary / ischaemic heart disease
Stroke / cerebrovascular disease
Respiratory system diseases
Other circulatory system diseases
Digestive system diseases
Mental and behavioural disorders
Accidents
Nervous system diseases
Genitourinary system diseases
2000 2010
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
36. Age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1981-83
1982-84
1983-85
1984-86
1985-87
1986-88
1987-89
1988-90
1989-91
1990-92
1991-93
1992-94
1993-95
female
1994-96
Year
1995-97
1996-98
1997-99
1998-00
male
National Records of Scotland
1999-01
1983 to 2008-2010
2000-02
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future 2001-03
2002-04
2003-05
2004-06
2005-07
Life expectancy at birth, Scotland, 1981-
2006-08
2007-09
2008-10
37. Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence
intervals for Council areas, 2008-2010
(Males and Females) SCOTLAND
East Dunbartonshire
Perth & Kinross
East Renfrewshire
Aberdeenshire
Stirling
Angus
Scottish Borders
Orkney Islands
East Lothian
Shetland Islands
Edinburgh, City of MALE FEMALE
Argyll & Bute
Moray
Dumfries & Galloway
Midlothian
Highland
Falkirk
South Ayrshire
Fife
Aberdeen City
West Lothian
South Lanarkshire
Clackmannanshire
East Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
Eilean Siar
Dundee
Renfrewshire
West Dunbartonshire
Inverclyde
Glasgow City
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86
Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest Years
National Records of Scotland
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38. Life expectancy at birth, 95% confidence intervals for
Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Deciles, 2008-
2010 (Males and Females)
SCOTLAND
Least
deprived
10
9
8
7
6 MALE FEMALE
5
4
3
2
Most 1
deprived
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85
Ordered by lowest male life expectancy to highest Years
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
39. Healthy life expectancy
• Levels for women and men have been gradually
increasing since 1980.
• In 2010 healthy life expectancy for women was
61.9 years, whilst levels for men were 59.5
years. Average levels of healthy life expectancy
decreased by 0.7% between 2009 and 2010.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
40. Deaths, Scotland, actual1 and projected2, 1951-
2035
70
Projected 2
60
50
Persons ('000s)
40
30
20
10
0
1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
1
calendar year
2
2010-based mid-year projections National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
41. Migration
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
42. Net migration, Scotland, 1951-2035
50
40
Projected 1
30
20
Persons ('000s)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1
2010-based projections Year
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
43. Population, Scotland, actual and
projected, 1951-2035
6,000
5,500
5,000
Persons ('000s)
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Actual 2010-based 2008-based 2006-based
National Records of Scotland
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45. Projected changes by age group over the
next 25 years
• Children (0-15): 3% increase
• Working age: 7% increase
• State pension age: 26% increase
• 75+ : 82% increase
• 85+ : 147% increase
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
46. Dependents1 per 100 working age
population, Scotland, actual and
80.0
projected, 1951-2035
75.0
Dependents per 100 working age
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
1 Between 2010 and 2020 the state
pension age for women will rise from 60 Actual 2010-based 2008-based 2006-based
to 65 and then between 2024 and 2026
will rise for both men and women to
66, and rises again to 68 by 2046. National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
47. Pensioners, comparing proposed changes to SPA
1,350,000
1,300,000
1,250,000
People of pensionable age
1,200,000
1,150,000
1,100,000
1,050,000
1,000,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Year
Proposed Pensioners Original Pensioners
National Records of Scotland
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48. Comparing pensionable age population, if SPA became 70+ by 2035 and current changes
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
Persons
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
People of pensionable age if 70+ in 2035 Current changes to SPA
National Records of Scotland
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49. As well as producing the principal
projections, there are also a series of variant
projections.
These are based on different plausible
assumptions about fertility, mortality and
migration giving a more complete picture of
what we might expect to see in the future.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
50. Actual and projected total
population, Scotland, under the 2010-based
principal and selected variant projections, 1981-
9.0 9.0
2085
8.5
HP = High population
HM = High migration HP
8.5
HF = High fertility
HL = High life expectancy
8.0 P = Principal projection 8.0
LL = Low life expectancy
LF = Low fertility
7.5 7.5
LM = Low migration
NC = Natural change only HM
Population (Millions)
LP = Low population HF
7.0 7.0
HL
6.5 6.5
P
6.0 6.0
LL
5.5 LF 5.5
LM
5.0 5.0
4.5 NC 4.5
LP
4.0 4.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
Year
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
51. Average age of Scotland’s population under
the 2010-based principal and selected variant
47
projections, 2010-2035
Natural change
46 Low population
45 Low fertility
Low migration
Age in years
44
High life expectancy
43
Principal
42
Low life expectancy
41 High migration
40 High fertility
High population
39
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
52. Household change
• Household sizes are falling, and more people
are living alone.
• This means that the number of households is
increasing much faster than the population.
• Increase in elderly population (who are more
likely to live alone).
• More people live alone in urban areas, and in
more deprived areas.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
53. Changes in household types
1,400,000
1,200,000 1981
2008
2033
1,000,000
Number of households
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1 adult 2 adults 1 adult with 2+ adults with 3+ adults
children children
Type of household
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
54. Projected percentage of people living alone, 2033
90%
Males
80%
Females
70%
Percentage of people
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
Age group
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
55. Questions?
For more information please contact:
NRS Statistics Customer Services
email: customer@gro-scotland.gov.uk
Tel: 0131 314 4299
Or look at our website www.gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
56. Extra information!
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
57. Population increase, comparing selected
variants with natural change only
900 projection, 2015-2035
800
700
Additional population (000s)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Low Migration Principal High Migration
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
58. Births by mother’s country of birth
United Kingdom, Irish Republic
All countries of Other European
Isle of Man, Non-UK including Ireland, Commonwealth Other countries
birth Union
Channel Islands part not stated
2004 53,957 49,738 4,219 230 844 1,822 1,319
2005 54,386 49,711 4,675 272 996 1,942 1,462
2006 55,690 50,468 5,222 257 1,326 2,112 1,525
2007 57,781 51,431 6,350 303 2,085 2,265 1,692
2008 60,041 52,434 7,607 321 2,793 2,657 1,832
2009 59,046 51,062 7,984 276 3,032 2,690 1,986
2010 58,791 50,615 8,176 297 3,197 2,634 2,048
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
59. Births in Scotland, by mother’s country of birth,
3,500
2004-2010
3,000
2,500
2,000
Births
1,500
1,000
500
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Irish Republic including Ireland, part not stated Other European Union Commonwealth Other countries
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
60. Comparisons with
selected European
countries
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
61. Percentage change
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Bulgaria
Latvia
Lithuania
Source: ONS and Eurostat
Romania
Germany
Estonia
Hungary
Poland
Malta
Portugal
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Greece
EU27
Slovenia
Netherlands
Austria
Finland
2035
Denmark
Italy
Scotland
France
Spain
National Records of Scotland
Northern Ireland
Liechtenstein
Wales
Sweden
Belgium
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
Iceland
Switzerland
United Kingdom
England
in selected European countries, 2010-
Norway
Projected percentage population change
Ireland
Cyprus
Luxembourg
62. Assumptions about the 2010-based principal and
nine variant projections for Scotland
Fertility Life expectancy Life expectancy Migration
Males (2035) Females (2035)
1 Principal projection 1.70 80.9 85.1 +17,500
Standard 'single component' variants
2 High fertility 1.90 80.9 85.1 +17,500
3 Low fertility 1.50 80.9 85.1 +17,500
4 High life expectancy 1.70 83.3 86.7 +17,500
5 Low life expectancy 1.70 78.4 83.5 +17,500
6 High migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 +26,000
7 Low migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 +9,000
Combination variants
8 High population 1.90 83.3 86.7 +26,000
9 Low population 1.50 78.4 83.5 +9,000
Special case scenario
10 Zero migration 1.70 80.9 85.1 0
National Records of Scotland
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63. Comparisons with
other UK countries
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
64. • UK population is projected to increase from 62.3
million in 2010 to
73.2 million in 2035
• An 18% rise (compared to Scotland’s 10%)
National Records of Scotland
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65. UK countries population
120
growth, 2010-2035
115
Index (2010 = 100)
110
105
100
95
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
England Northern Ireland Wales Scotland
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
66. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
90+
80
1981
70
60
50
Age
40
30
20
10
0
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Persons
Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Female
year population estimates.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
67. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
90+
80
1991
70
60
50
Age
40
30
20
10
0
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Persons
Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Female
year population estimates.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
68. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
90+
80
2001
70
60
50
Age
40
30
20
10
0
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Persons
Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Female
year population estimates.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
69. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
90+
80
2011
70
60
50
Age
40
30
20
10
0
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Persons
Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Female
year population estimates.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
70. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
90+
80
2021
70
60
50
Age
40
30
20
10
0
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Persons
Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Female
year population estimates.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
71. Population Pyramids of Scotland, 1981-2035
90+
80
2035
70
60
50
Age
40
30
20
10
0
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000
Data for 2011 to 2035 is from the 2010-based National Persons
Population Projections. Data prior to this is from the NRS mid- Male Female
year population estimates.
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
72. Persons ('000s)
0
10
20
30
40
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
1951-1952
1954-1955
1957-1958
1960-1961
1963-1964
1966-1967
1969-1970
1972-1973
1975-1976
1978-1979
1981-1982
1984-1985
Year to 30 June
1987-1988
Estimated net
National Records of Scotland
1990-1991
1993-1994
1996-1997
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
1999-2000
2002-2003
migration, Scotland, 1951-2010
2005-2006
2009-2010
73. Migration summary:2009-2010
In Out Net
1
Rest of UK 47,000 43,500 3,500
Overseas 46,100 24,600 21,500
2
Total 93,100 68,100 24,900
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
74. Where are overseas migrants coming from?
• ? Roughly:
In Out
(08-09) (08-09)
EU15 40% (35) 20% (40)
A8 + A2 15% (10) 10% (10)
Commonwealth 25% (30) 35% (30)
Other 20% (30) 35% (20)
• About 25% of overseas in-migrants are British citizens
• About 50% of overseas out-migrants are British citizens
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
75. Migration assumptions
• From 2016-17 there is projected to be an annual net
gain of 17,500 people to Scotland
• +8,500 from rest of UK
• +9,000 from overseas
• Higher net inflows projected for first 6 years of the
projections, reflecting the recent (historically high)
levels of in-migration, in particular, A8 migration
• Inflows from Eastern European accession countries
(A8) assumed to have a net 0 from 2016-17
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
76. Net migration and natural change, estimated and
projected, 1951-2035
50
40
1
Projected
30
20
Persons ('000s)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
1
2010-based projections Year
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
77. Scotland’s Age Specific
Fertility 1983-2010
140
120
30-34
100
Births per 1,000 women
25-29
80
20-24
60
35-39
40
Under 20
20
40+
0
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
78. For Scotland fertility rates are
assumed to..
• continue to increase for women in their 40s
• remain stable for women in their 30s
• and fall slightly for women in their 20s
• the Total Fertility Rate is projected to remain
fairly stable until 2012 before falling to the long-
term level
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
79. Children (0-15)
• 0.91 million in 2010
• Rises to peak of 0.97 million in 2023
• 0.94 million in 2035
• A increase of 3% over the 25 years
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
80. Working Age
• 3.27 million in 2010
• Rises to peak of 3.50 million in 2026
• Falls slightly to 3.46 million in 2033
• Rises to 3.50 million in 2035
• An increase of 7% over 25 years
• Takes into account changes in state pension
age
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
81. Pension Age
• 1.04 million in 2010
• 1.32 million in 2035
• An increase of 26%
• Takes into account changes in state pension
age
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
82. Dependency Ratios
As the age structure of Scotland’s population
changes, the dependency ratio – the ratio of
people aged under 16 and those of
pensionable age per 100 people of working
age – is set to change as well
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
83. 75 +
• 0.41 million in 2010
• 0.74 million in 2035
• An increase of 82%
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
84. Estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2010 was
5,222,100
7,000
6,000
5,000
Persons ('000s)
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1951 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Increase of 28,100 on 2009, highest since 1977
National Records of Scotland
preserving the past; recording the present; informing the future
85. Retirement in flux
David Sinclair
ILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Swiss Re
86. Retirement in flux
Changing perceptions of retirement
and later life
David Sinclair,
Assistant Director, Policy and Communications . ILC-UK
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
87. Contents
History of retirement
– Retirement is a relatively modern construct
Where are we now
– Retirement has grown to 20 years
The future of retirement
– Citizenship in retirement – What are our rights and
responsibilities?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Editor's Notes
Ecclesiastes 3, 'To everything there is a season….'