Presented by Yemi Akinbamijo, Executive Director, FARA, at the ILRI@40 Side event at the All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya, 28 October 2014

1. Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa
Livestock and Economic
Well-being in Africa
Dr. Yemi Akinbamijo
Executive Director, FARA
Livestock-based options for economic wellbeing in Africa
ILRI@40 Side event at the All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture
Nairobi, Kenya, 28 October 2014

2. Outline
1. Introduction
2. Why Livestock Matters
3. Mega trends and their implication on the impact of
livestock economic well-being of Africans
4. How should the livestock sub-sector contribute to
attainment of the future agric (incl. livestock) that Africa
wants
5. About FARA
6. Concluding remarks
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3. 25 years ago …

4. 25 years ago …
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5. 25 years ago …
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6. 25 years ago …
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7. Well-being (OECD, 2011)
Material Living
Conditions
Quality of Life
• Health
• Education
• Governance
• Env. quality
• Security
• etc
• Income
• Jobs
• Shelter
• etc
Sustainability of well being over time
Preserving the different types of capital
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8. CAADP Results Framework
Wealth creation; Economic Opportunities & Prosperity—
Jobs + poverty reduction; Improved Food and Nutrition
Security; Resilience; Environmental sustainability
Agricultural Transformation and Sustained inclusive
agriculture growth
1
Increased
agriculture
production
and
productivity
2
Better functioning
national agric. and food
markets & increased
intra/ inter–regional
trade ,
3
Expanded local
agro-industry
and value
addition
4
Improved management
and governance of
natural resources for
sustainable agricultural
production

9. Livestock
• Hoofed
• Poultry
• Micro-livestock

10. Livestock: Why it Matters ? 1/2
• ¾ of Africa’s rural households
possess livestock
• Employs about 50% of
agricultural labour force
• Accounts for about 1/3 of
agricultural GDP (contributes
about 10% of GDP)
• Fastest growing agriculture
subsector
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11. Livestock: Why it Matters ? 2/2
Animals are a major source of livelihood
contributing to:
o Food
o Employment and income
o Soil fertility improvement
o Traction (ploughing & transport)
o Capital accumulation to cope
with food crises and major life
events
o Socio-cultural status
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12. Livestock matters, but …
• It does not get the
attention it merits
• As a result its potential
to contribute to
economic well-being is
under-exploited
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13. The Livestock sub sector in Africa
• Remains a small player by world standards
• Continent has 15% of world population but accounts for
about 6% of meat and milk production respectively
Meat and Milk production in Africa (1,000 mt)
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World Africa
% of
World
Bovine meat 66,359 5,797 8.7%
Poultry meat 102,456 4,853 4.7%
Milk 739,111 44,237 6.0%
• Meat & milk production
are growing at 2.8% and
2.2% pa. This is not
enough

14. Mega trends with a bearing on the
livestock sector in Africa …1/3
1. Population growth,
Youth & urbanisation
2. Growing affluence
 Changing dietary patterns:
–  demand for animal protein,
– more attention on food
safety, quality & nutrition

15. Mega trends with a bearing on the
livestock sector in Africa …2/3
3. Globalised markets &
increasing agribusiness
– Regional integration
4. Climate change and
variability
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16. Mega trends with a bearing on the
livestock sector in Africa …3/3
5. Rising energy and agricultural
input prices
6. ICT proliferation
7. Pressure on genetic
resources and
biodiversity
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17. Consumption of Livestock products
Estimated Meat consumption pa 2005-07 and 2050
273
Estimated Milk consumption pa 2005-07 and 2050
32
24
62
108
46
320
83
49
101
261
88
350
180
160
300
140
250
120
200
100
150
100
50
-
80
60
40
20
Developed
countries
Africa Near East Latin
America
South Asia East
Southeast
Asia
(Million MT)
07 2050
108
11
7
34
7
87
132
35
20
61
40
160
-
Developed
countries
Africa Near East Latin
America
South Asia East
Southeast
Asia
(Million MT)
2005-07 2050
Mega trends of:
• Population growth
• Urbanisation
• Income growth
are drivers of
growth in
consumption of
livestock products
How will Africa
meet the growth in
demand?
Imports vs increase in
domestic production
Data derived from WB, FAO, AU-IBAR, ILRI report, 2013

18. Trade in livestock products (Africa)
1,600
7,000
1,400
6,000
1,200
5,000
1,000
4,000
800
3,000
600
2,000
400
1,000
200
-
Trends in Meat & Meat products trade
Trends in dairy products (Milk equivalent)
trade in Africa in Africa 1990-1990 2010 - 2010 (1,000 (1,000 MT)
MT)
Imports
Exports
Net imports
Imports Exports
Net imports
Year
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
• Exports have
stagnated or
declined
• Growth in
consumption is
met by imports
• Net imports of
dairy products
about USD 2.2B &
deficit is
increasing
• Not sustainable !
Prepared from FAOSTAT data

19. Value addition of African livestock products
• Enhances safety and trade
(domestic, regional and
international markets)
• Increases the value added of the
livestock subsector
• Creates jobs
• Lowers prices (most of the time)
for consumers

20. Animal traction
• Tillage, transportation
Processing (milling &
threshing), water lifting
• It is time to phase out the
hand hoe
• “He who has no donkey is
a donkey” (Ethiopian proverb)
• Animal traction often by-passed
in favour of tractor
mechanization
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21. Livestock as source of input for soil
fertility management
• Soil fertility is a major constraint; inorganic
inputs out of reach for poor farmers
• Livestock manure:
an important
source of nutrients
+ soil quality
enhancement
• Strong push for
organic agriculture
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22. Infectious animal diseases and emerging
zoonotic risks erode economic well-being
• Foot and Mouth Disease cause losses of approximately USD
25 billion per year (J. Rushton, 2012).
• Ticks and tick-borne diseases cost approximately USD 17
billion per year (De Castro, 1997).
• A severe avian influenza pandemic could cause the death of
70 million people and decrease global GDP by 4.8% OECD
report (2011)
• Economic cost of CBPP in 12 African countries estimated at
44.8 million Euros (Tambi et al. 2006)
• Economic surplus from rinderpest surveillance in Ethiopia
estimated at 2.8 million Euros (Tambi et al. 2005)

23. Livestock and climate change …1/2
Climate change increases
vulnerability of livestock systems
• Increased spread of diseases
and emergence of new ones
• Reduced carrying capacity of
rangelands
• Water scarcity
• Heat-related mortality
Livestock supply chains
are estimated to
generate 14.5% of all
human-induced
emissions (FAO, 2013)
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24. Livestock and climate change …2/2
• Pastoralists in the Serengeti-Mara
ecosystem have progressively less
livestock per head over the past 30
years
• A result of climate
change plus
population growth
and other land
uses
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25. Realising the potential of livestock to
enhancing economic well being
• Ensure livestock gets due attention at the policy level
– In policy frameworks e.g. CAADP, National Agric. and Food Security
Investment Plans etc, Implementation plan for the Science Agenda
for Agriculture in Africa
– Evidence to support policy on livestock—so much information
available but it is not sufficiently used in policy formulation
– Investment in services for animal health, processing and marketing to
increase self-sufficiency in livestock products
• Livestock as an integral part of agriculture and food
systems (integration of crop-livestock-aquatic & forestry resources)
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26. The Agriculture future Africa wants
TARGETS: What is the contribution of the Livestock
subsector?
1. Double agricultural total factor productivity by 2025 (by
taking maximum advantage of science and knowledge---the Science
Agenda)
2. Increase the share of intra-African trade to at least 50% of
the continent's total agrifood trade by 2025
3. End hunger and ensure food and nutrition security for all
Africa's citizens on a self-reliance basis by 2025.
4. Climate change adaptation strongly integrated in agric.
investment plans & strengthened by resilience mechanisms

27. About FARA
• Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa
• Technical arm of the African Union Commission on
agricultural research and development
Core function:
Facilitating collective actions for the promotion of
Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) to enhance
broad-based productivity, competitiveness and markets
in Africa
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28. How FARA contributes to CAADP results
2.1
Increased
agricultural
production and
productivity
2.2
Better functioning
national & regional
agriculture markets &
trade
2.3
Expanded local agro-industry
and value
addition
2.4
Improved management
and governance of
natural resources for
sustainable agricultural
production
The Science Agenda for
Agriculture in Africa (S3A)
The Science, Technology
and Innovation Strategy
for Africa (STISA)
FARA’s Strategic
Priorities
(2014-2018)

29. Concluding Remarks
• Vision for accelerated economic and social transformation of Africa
will not be realised without transformation in all agriculture
subsectors incl. livestock
• Essential to map out how each agric. sub-sector incl. livestock will
effectively contribute to realisation of the future Africa wants
• FARA to support efforts aimed at assuring that livestock gets the
policy attention it deserves
• ILRI and other CGIAR Centers/CRPs to align livestock programmes to
CAADP framework
• Enough blah blah; let us concetrate on the do do
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30. Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa
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Celebrating FARA
26-28 November 2014
Johannesburg, South Africa
…Innovating for Africa’s well being

31. Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa
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