Antonio Pratelli, Massimiliano Petri, Corrado Rindone and Francescalberto de Bari on "A feasibility study for new transport connections between Italia and Algeria"

1. A feasibility study for new transport
connections between Italia and Algeria
Prof. Antonio Pratelli
Eng. Massimiliano Petri
Doct. Corrado Rindone
Doct. Francescalberto de Bari
Polo Sistemi Logistici di Livorno - Laboratorio LOGIT,
University of Pisa
Seventh International Conference on
Informatics and Urban and Regional Planning
10-12 May 2012
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Archit., Univ.of Cagliari (Italy)

2. INTRODUCTION
The present study is part of the Executive Scientific Project 2 in the
ItalMed Project which aim is to elaborate feasibility studies for new
transport connections between Italia and Algeria.
AIM
The main objective of the study is to increase the degree of economic
integration of the two countries’ production systems through
improving commercial exchanges and direct investments by Italian
companies in Algeria.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

3. INTRODUCTION
THE STUDY
The analysis is divided in four parts:
1) Definition of hypothesis of scheduled services between Italian
ports/airports and Algeria;
2) Comparative analysis of the competitiveness of hypothetical
scheduled services in relation to existing services;
3) Estimation of the potential demand for the scheduled services
envisaged in the project;
4) Analysis of present and future constraints to the development of the
proposed routes.
In this presentation only the first and third part where described for
their geographical and modeling approach.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

4. INTRODUCTION
ALGERIAN ECONOMY
Algerian economy is nowadays based on production and manufacture of
hydrocarbons (natural gas and oil).
Natural gas fields are almost inexhaustible so that they ensure the future
continuity of the most important item in the budget of the country.
In the last years the value of italian export to Algeria is increasing while import
of Algerian goods to Italy is fluctuating.
Among Italian exports to Algeria there are thermal and hydraulic turbines and
other machines that produce mechanical energy.
The Algerian government is generally committed to open the country's
economy and attract more foreign investment, particularly in areas not related
to hydrocarbons. The expansion of the construction sector should be guided
by the government program to improve infrastructure and building economic
expansion for the growing young population.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

5. INTRODUCTION
ALGERIAN ECONOMY
A large part of the active population works in agriculture and the Government
is committed to this area, strongly rooted in the culture of the country, trying
to increase their yields through programs for the expansion of irrigated areas.
Despite the efforts of the Algerian government, the country is still heavily
dependent on other countries by importing large quantities of food and
agricultural products. This is another outlet for many Italian farms.
The success of the ‘Made in Italy’ in the algerian market (usually characterized
by the 4 A – Agroalimentare -Food, Arredamento-furniture, Abbigliamento-
clothing, Automazione industriale-industrial automation) occurs mainly
through the industrial automation sector, which represents over 75% of the
Algerian demand of Italian goods, confirming its status as a priority sector for
our exports.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

6. INTRODUCTION
ACTUAL IMPORT-EXPORT TRENDS
Data of European section of ISTAT (Italian Statistical Agency) called COWEB.
Total import and export
between Italy and Algeria
in the years 2009 and 2010
The import market from
Algeria is limited to only
20 Italian provinces
where the first 4 cover
more than 98% of the
total. The result is a very
concentrated market
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

7. INTRODUCTION
ACTUAL IMPORT-EXPORT TRENDS
Exports from Algeria has
a greater geographical
spread, but smaller
quantities of goods (5.5%
of imports, that’s to say
21.6 mil. vs. € 394 mil. €).
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

8. INTRODUCTION
PASSENGERS TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR ALGERIA
Data from the European In the central-southern Italy the only area with a number of
project DATELINE were Long Distance Journeys to Africa not low is Lazio region.
collected to evaluate the The European Countries with more LD journeys are France,
demand from passengers Germany, United Kingdom and Spain; the proposed routes
transport from EU to Algeria. must create a network with these Countries with marittime
this project has elaborated a ro-ro types or air connections.
survey to European citizens
(interviews with a sample of
more than 86,000 residents in
the European Union and their
journeys with distance greater
than 100 km) and it was
reconstructed the O/D Matrix
for all Long Distance Journey
and relative to all transport
modes.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

9. DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
EXISTING SERVICES
This first part consisted in the
research and analysis of data and
information related to existing
connections and about the actual
The analysisof goods exported and
quantities of existing routes
showed that the Algeria so to allow
imported from connections are
prevalent to the area north-central of
linking transport supply with
Italy, while the central area between
demand. of Tuscany and Lazio is
the south
With regard to information onthis
totally absent of links. In practice
existing routes between the two
area is comprised in the center
countries, information from
Tyrrhenian-Adriatic Logistics Platform
specialized journals have been
(as called in the National Logistics
Plan).
collected (Messaggero Marittimo
and Avvisatore Marittimo of
September 2011).
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

10. DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
EXISTING SERVICES
In the central Italy Pisa Airport is one of the more important with many links with
France, Germany and France.
60
Links with Pisa Galilei Airport
50
40
30
20
10
0
Spain Germany England France * Others
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

11. In terms of air traffic the company with the largest number of links between these four
After Milan and Rome airports, the biggest number
34 34
Valencia (Spagna)
Tenerife (Spagna)
of connections are linked to Pisa Airport
49
Stoccolma (Svezia)
DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
37
Siviglia (Spagna)
28
Reus (Spagna)
48
Malaga (Spagna)
42
Madrid (Spagna)
31 28
Ibiza (Spagna)
10-12 May 2012
Gran Canaria (Spagna)
46
Girona (Spagna)
18
Fuerteventura (Spagna)
28
Barcelona (Spagna)
56
Alicante (Spagna)
18
Bratislava (Slovacchia)
31 29
Faro (Portogallo)
Porto (Portogallo)
22
Cracovia (Polonia)
Countries and Italy is Ryanair that has its Hub in Pisa Airport.
15
Breslavia (Polonia)
28
Eindhoven (Paesi Bassi)
22
Malta
16 20
Kaunas (Lituania)
Riga (Lettonia)
Seventh International Conference INPUT
63
Dublino (Irlanda)
EXISTING SERVICES
26
Manchester (UK)
136
Londra (UK)
Ryanair Network
41
Liverpool (UK)
23 23
Leeds (UK)
Glasgow (UK)
Airport
34
East Midlands (UK)
29
Bristol (UK)
12
Bournemouth (UK)
23
Brimingham (UK)
12 15 13
Rodi (Grecia)
Monaco (Germania)
Karlsruhe-Baden…
53
Francoforte (Germania)
46 Dusseldorf (Germania)
23
Brema (Germania)
46
Parigi (Francia)
22
Marsiglia (Francia)
14 11 13
Tampere (Finlandia)
Talllinn (Estonia)
Billund (Danimarca)
73
Bruxelles (Belgio)
12
Fez (Marocco)
24
Marrakesh (Marocco)
48
Oslo (Norvegia)
19
Venezia (Italia)
34
Trapani (Italia)
49
Roma (Italia)
12
Palermo (Italia)
69
Milano (Italia)
26
Cagliari (Italia)
14
Brindisi (Italia)
31
Bologna (Italia)
21 22
Bari (Italia)
Alghero (Italia)
46
PISA (Italia)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Links number

12. DEFINITION OF TRANSPORT SERVICES
PROPOSED SERVICES
The proposed services are four, one with air and three maritime links.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

13. DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
A transport cost/time model was elaborated
for italian and algerian territory.
Moreover, by means of cost functions, the
travel impedance for each arc was evaluated so
to construct the gravitational area of each port
both for Italy side than Algeria one.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

14. DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
Time cost functions
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

15. DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
Monetary cost
functions
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

16. DEMAND ESTIMATION
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR THE PROPOSED SERVICES
The first results of the model
with the gravitational area
analysis show how the demand
Italy-side, intercepted from the
port of Livorno, is mainly
regional, due to the
conformation of the Italian road
network with a possible
expansion to Emilia Romagna
and Veneto regions. Instead, the
Civitavecchia and Naples ports
have a greater gravitational
basin so, therefore, to fully
justify the suggested routes.
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

17. DEMAND ESTIMATION
WORKING IN PROGRESS
A Stated Preferences Survey was elaborated with an interview (always
ongoing) to some companies that have been identified as possible users of the
shipping services designed or that currently trades with Algeria.
The first results of the survey show that the potential attractiveness is very
high for both imports than exports to Algeria, but, at present, this possibility is
limited by high port costs (eg. cost of goods handling) and excessive
bureaucracy impact (eg. number of documents and others).
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

18. DEMAND ESTIMATION
SOME PROBLEMS
Shipping cost (euro) comparison for some African Countries
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012

19. DEMAND ESTIMATION
SOME PROBLEMS
Shipping time (days) comparison for some African Countries
Seventh International Conference INPUT 10-12 May 2012