The document discusses the future of European security in a globalized world. It outlines three potential scenarios for Europe's future: 1) fragmentation and failure leading to economic depression, 2) further integration and fiscal union making Europe a powerful global actor, and 3) "muddling through" with some crisis management but growing anti-European sentiment. Major challenges ahead include defense budget cuts, NATO burden sharing, the future of US commitment to Europe, and potential "wild cards" like conflicts drawing Europe into conflict.

1. Managing European Security in
a Globalised World: What
Future?
16 October 2012
Ambassador Dr Fred Tanner
Director, Geneva Centre for Security Policy
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2. Outline
1. Geneva Centre for Security Policy
2. Europe in the World
3. Europe's Security Environment
4. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic”
5. Europe's Future – 3 Scenarios
6. European Security Institutions - Major
Challenges Ahead
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3. Geneva Centre for Security Policy
• Foundation with international membership (to date 44
member states and the Canton of Geneva)
• Founded 1995 as Swiss contribution to PfP
• Training: Assisting current and future leaders to
translate knowledge into action
• 3 Principal Courses (ITC, ETC, NISC), 40 short courses/year
• Academic Year 2011/2012: 791 participants from 112 nations
• Research and dialogue in the field of peace and
international security
• Recognised platform for public discussions
• Intercultural dialogue and building bridges
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4. Europe in the World
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5. Marginalisation of Europe
• Power shifts from Atlantic to Pacific
• Europe used to be the focus of world attention
during the Cold War
• “ Rise of the rest” (emerging powers such as
China)
• Europe is facing recession and sovereign debt
crises
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6. Economic Growth Rates
Source: Data from World Bank and IMF, April 2012
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7. Europe’s Debts
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8. Youth Unemploymment
’
Source: ILO Report “Global Employment Trends for Youth 2012”, May 2012
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9. Source: IISS Report “The Military Balance 2012”, March 2012
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10. Military spending is concentrated in North
America, Europe, and increasingly, Asia
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11. World Military Expenditure
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12. Europe’s Security Environment
Europe is embedded in a dynamic and complex
global environment characterized by:
• Emergence of new powerful states and power shifts in
the international structure
• Europe’ s role as a “civilian power”
• Diversification of the spectrum of international actors
with a rise of non-state actors
• Major technological advancements (including laser
weapons, UVAs, cyberwarfare, social media)
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13. European Threat Assessment
Potential threat % of people who
consider it to be serious
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 70
Al-Qaeda type Terrorism 72
Global Climate Change 55
Financial „Meltdown“ 51
Resource Scarcity 49
Cultural / Religious Conflicts 43
Overpopulation and Migration 33
Source: Gallup poll „Europeans on Global Security“, December 2010
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14. The main concerns for European
citizens (Eurobarometer 2012)
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15. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)
• Conflicts in Europe’s neighbourhood (e.g.
between Turkey and Syria)
• Cuts in military spending due to economic
crisis (since 2008 Greece: 26%, Spain 18%,
Italy 16%)
• Crisis of multilaterism (G 20, 4 European
countries, plus EU)
• Relations with Russia
• Need to transform and demilitarise strategic
relations between the US/NATO and Russia
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16. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)
• Growing “enlargement fatigue” (countries
preparing to join the EU: BiH, Croatia, FYRM,
Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Iceland and
Turkey; 2004 with ten new member states
largest enlargement so far)
• Continuous euroscepticism (falling trust in EU
institutions, image problems)
• Territorial issues still not settled (Europe’s
“frozen conflicts”)
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17. Europe’s “Frozen Conflicts”
• Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia
and Abkhazia re-escalated in 2008
• Division of Cyprus has been frozen since
more than 40 years
• Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-
Karabakh territory
• Kosovo and Serbia over Kosovo’s
independence
• Moldova over Transnistria breakaway
region
• Catalonia, Scotland
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18. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)
• EU played a very important role for the promotion
of democracy after the Cold War (especially
through enlargements, but also in trade relations)
• Democratisation not linear, danger of regression
• Continuous efforts include, the EU’s “Eastern
Partnership” to enhance relations and promote
democracy in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
• EU’s engagement with the Arab transition
countries
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19. Europe’s Future – Scenarios (1)
C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg
Europe’s fragmentation and failure
• No implosion, but slow decline, economic
depression in Europe and globally
• Departure of Greece from Eurozone, eventually
collapse of Eurozone
• EU still exists but recession, more as customs
union and less as single market
• Return of trade barriers
• Re-nationalisation of Europe: Germany seeks
export markets in Asia
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20. Europe’s Future – Scenarios (2)
C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg
Further integration (Federal big bang)
• Marginalisation can only be avoided by creating a
strong union, fiscal union, federal taxation goes with
political and constitutional unity
• EU would emerge as a powerful actor on the global
stage
• “Federalise” as few powers as possible (Germany)
vs. Europeanisation of debt (Italy) – role of the UK?
• NATO as future umbrella of European defence
• Europe without UK, future candidates loose
perspective of short or mid-term membership
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21. Europe’s Future - Scenarios (3)
C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg
“Reculer pour mieux sauter”, muddling
through, “drifting” (Heisbourg)
• Crisis management, no time for strategy
• Eurozone saved, some doses of federalism
(European Stability Mechanism), anti-European
sentiment will radicalise and grow among the
younger generations hard hit by unemployment
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22. 4 September 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 22

23. European Security Institutions: Major
Challenges Ahead
● www.gcsp.ch ●

24. NATO: Preparing for the “Eurodämmerung”
•Major cuts of defence budgets across the board
•Fair sharing of burdens of common security
•NATO: A “service provider” instead of a “security
community”?
•Alliance coherence-“Collective defenders” vs.
“Expeditionaries”
•US future commitment to Europe – about to pivot?
•Smart defence : limits of pooling and sharing
… The way forward lies not in spending more but in
spending better“
A.F. Rasmussen, FA 2011
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25. Wild cards
• Russia
• Missile defence, Post-Soviet space, energy strategy,
nuclear weapons
• Turkey
• Emerging power
• Fixation on US rather than EU
• “Hot spots” (Iran, Syria, Sahel, South Asia,
Korea) could draw Europe (NATO) into a
conflict
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26. Reports and Projects
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2012:
Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative (EASI).
• Francois Heisbourg 2012: In the Shadow of the Euro
Crisis, Survival, 54(4), 25-32.
• Constanze Stelzenmüller 2012: Europe on its Own.
How the Crisis-Ridden Continent will Respond to a
Decade of U.S. Retrenchment: Three Scenarios, The
Euro-Future Project, Paper Series, June 2012.
• IISS, The International Institute for Strategic Studies
2012: Strategic Survey 2012: The Annual Review of
World Affairs, Routledge.
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27. 4 September 2012 ● www.gcsp.ch ● 27