Douglas Gollin, ISPC Council Member "Farm Size, Urbanization and the Links to Agriculture, Nutrition and Health: economic perspectives"

Farm Size, Urbanization
and the Links from Agriculture to Nutrition and Health:
Economic Perspectives
Douglas Gollin
Oxford University
Chair, CGIAR Standing Panel on Impact Assessment
CGIAR Science Forum 2013
Bonn, September 23-25
D. Gollin (Oxford) Economic Perspectives CGIAR Science Forum 1 / 23

Farm Size, Urbanization, Nutrition, and Health

Outline
1 Background and Motivation
2 Trends and Implications
3 Health and Nutrition Consequences
4 The Role of Agricultural Research?

1. Background

An Economist's Perspective: Evolution of Marketing
Systems
The changes in farm size and urbanization that the study foresees will
imply major changes in food markets.
This presentation focuses on these changes in the marketing system
and some potential impacts on health and nutrition:
Emphasizes channels of food quality and food safety.
Touches on issues of dietary-related disease, including metablic
syndromes.
Challenges for agricultural science (and the CGIAR):
Potential shifts in research emphasis

Background: Conclusions of the Study
In sub-Saharan Africa, rural populations will continue to grow,
although urban populations will grow more in both absolute and
relative terms.
Diets will shift towards meat and higher value foods, especially in
urban areas but demand for starch staples will continue to grow in
the poorest countries.
Dynamic areas and hinterlands may experience diverging patterns of
growth and consumption.

Background: Agriculture and Nutrition
Recent research challenges much of what we used to think about the
links between agriculture and nutrition:
In the short run, the relationship between household food baskets and
nutrition outcomes is a weak one.
The link between household income and nutrition outcomes is also
relatively weak.
Nutrition outcomes are not closely related to what (how much)
households produce or even what (how much) they consume.
Much more research needed to understand these linkages; e.g., this
Science Forum!
Long-run relationships are almost certaintly dierent; in the long run
and at a global scale, food production must be related to human
nutrition outcomes.
Where does this leave agricultural research?
What role for the CGIAR?

2. Trends and Implications

Rural Food Systems
Most rural people in sub-Saharan Africa will remain smallholders, and
most farms will remain smallholder farms.
Non-farm employment opportunities will emerge, but these
opportunities are limited and do not exist everywhere.
Many rural households will remain largely self-sucient in food
production.
Sell small quantities of surplus and/or cash crops.
Purchase foods (e.g., vegetable oil) that they cannot readily produce.
With limited scope for expanding area under cultivation, we will see a
footrace between shrinking farm size and rising productivity.
Welfare of the rural poor will depend on this outcome.

Urban Food Systems
Increasing urban populations and rising incomes will lead to higher
demand for starch staples as well as growing demand for high value
foods.
Massive increases in total demand for agricultural production.
Changes in food marketing, as well.
Demand for food away from home; demand for processed food;
demand for convenience food.

How Will Urban Food Demand Be Met?
Increasing role for imports of food into many cities.
Opportunities for commercial farming in well-connected urban
peripheries.
Growing consolidation and formalization of supply chains, including:
The growth of supermarkets.
The growth of markets for branded consumer products (especially with
processed foods).
The increasing reach of contract farming and commercial production
aimed for urban markets.

Parenthesis: Large Farms
Sometimes misconstrued as a debate over the relative merits of family
farms and investor-owned farms.
Not much to debate: family farms almost always win out, with the
exception of a few crops and activities...
But family farms can come in many sizes!
Large commercially oriented family farms, using mechanization, are the
norm in much of the world.
Not obvious why there would not be a niche for these farms in Africa
as well as the rest of the world.
Expansion of some farms implies shrinking farm size for others.
Potential emergence of a dualism in African farm size.

Implications for Urban Food Supply
Increasing importance of commercial channels:
Very large family farms selling directly to supermarkets.
Large farms selling to large-scale traders.
Increasing role for food processors:
Local production of processed convenience foods, fast foods.
Growth in local chains and brands.

Shifting Social Norms
Integrity of existing food supply chains at present relies on social
proximity and social relationships to guarantee quality.
People may buy from (and sell to) individuals with whom they share
some social capital.
Trust and repeated games provide some protection.
Goods are also sold in minimally processed form; with processing taking
place in the home, less risk.
Lengthening supply chains and formalization of processing alters the
relationship between people and their food.

3. Health and Nutrition Consequences

Potential Benets for Health and Nutrition
Consolidation of urban food supplies creates a number of possible
opportunities to improve health and nutrition.
Supplementation and fortication of foods becomes far easier.
Regulation and control of food supply becomes more feasible (e.g.,
pasteurization, management of abbatoires).

Potential Dangers for Health and Nutrition
Increased potential for food safety and health hazards to spread on far
wider scale than previous; e.g.,
a breakdown in cold chain in a poultry production plant
contamination of water supplies from concentrated animal feeding
operations
large quantities of chemically contaminated foods reaching market
Problems that might at present be isolated and sporadic have the
potential to emerge at far wider scale.
Potential for disasters.

Adulteration of Food Supplies
Not all potential food safety concerns are the result of accidents.
Incentives for adulteration of food supply; e.g., dilution of milk.
Incentives for corrupt use of contaminated products.
Pirating of brands and sale of knock-os.

Regulatory and Political Capacity
Limited regulatory capacity in many countries to inspect or manage
food supplies.
Lack of trained personnel and equipment.
Not necessarily a priority for governments.
Limited political capacity to enforce regulations on powerful
commercial interests.
Examples of rich countries do not inspire condence.

4. The Role of Agricultural Research

A Shift in the Research Agenda
The CGIAR's Strategy and Results Framework lists four system-level
objectives, of which one is improving nutrition and health.
If we take this mandate seriously, and if we are accept the ndings of
recent research, we need to look seriously about the mapping from
this SLO into research priorities.
Perhaps we are over-investing in research aimed at production and
nutritional enhancement.
Perhaps we are under-investing in research aimed at other food-related
health issues.
Perhaps not... Or perhaps the CGIAR has no comparative advantage in
these other areas.
But there are emerging issues related to urban food supply and
agricultural commercialization, and good science is needed.

What Role for Science?
What role for the CGIAR and/or international scientic community?
Rapid and context-appropriate tests for various food safety issues:
bacterial and chemical contamination, including tampering and
adulteration
Context-appropriate measures to deal with livestock waste.
Management of animal agriculture to reduce risks of zoonoses.
Advice in designing regulatory regimes, sampling frameworks, etc.
Other??

Conclusions
If the CGIAR seeks to apply agricultural science to improve health and
nutrition of poor people in developing countries, production is only one
of the possible topics to be addressed.
Urbanization and changes in the size and structure of farms will raise
numerous challenges for health and nutrition.
They will also bring potential benets.
Perhaps a good moment to think whether there are targets here that
the CGIAR might usefully hit...
A possibility of moving into some new areas of research.

Douglas Gollin, ISPC Council Member "Farm Size, Urbanization and the Links to Agriculture, Nutrition and Health: economic perspectives"

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Douglas Gollin, ISPC Council Member "Farm Size, Urbanization and the Links to Agriculture, Nutrition and Health: economic perspectives"