Report on Doha COP18 from ISciences

Kyoto and Beyond

Report
on
DOHA COP18
The 11th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements
related to climate change

www.isciences.com April 5, 2013

Introduction
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international
climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.

Report on Doha is a summary of the negotiations that transpired at COP18, the 18th
session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the
Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol,
which was held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.

Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*:
 2008 Kyoto and Beyond  2011 Road to Durban COP17
 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update  2012 Report on Durban COP17
 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15  2012 Road to Rio+20
 2010 Road to Cancun COP16  2012 Report on Rio+20
 2011 Report on Cancun COP16  2012 Road to Doha COP18

* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html

Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 2

Contents

Overview

Outcomes

Climate Science

Looking Ahead

This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text.


Overview: Timeline
1997
Kyoto Protocol
1992 adopted 2001 2007
UN Framework IPCC 3rd IPCC 4th
Convention on Assessment Report Assessment Report
Climate Change 2010
Cancun Agreements
2005 drafted at COP16
Kyoto Protocol
enters into force

1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012

1995
IPCC 2nd
Assessment Report 2011
Durban Platform
1990 adopted at COP17
IPCC 1st
Assessment Report 2009
released Copenhagen
Accord drafted at
COP15
2012
Doha Climate
Arctic Sea Ice Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Sept. 1999 Sept. 2011 Gateway
adopted at
COP18
(Image Credit: NASA)


Overview: Global Conditions
Increasingly, the global community has issued urgent warnings about the need
for action on climate change.
“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure
to do so would betray our children and future generations.” – US President
Barack Obama, inaugural speech Jan. 21, 2013

(Image Credit: Center for American Progress
“We’re on track for a 4°C warmer world marked by extreme heat-waves, declining global
Action Fund via Wikimedia Commons) food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise.”–
World Bank and Potsdam Institute Report, Nov. 2012, Turn Down the Heat

"I got it wrong on climate change - it's far, far worse … Do we want to play Russian roulette with
two bullets or one? These risks for many people are existential … What we're talking about then is
extended world war.“ – Lord Nicholas Stern, economist, at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23,
2013

“Unless we take action on climate change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled” –
Christine Lagarde, managing director International Monetary Fund at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013

"There will be water and food fights everywhere.“ - Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, at the
World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013

Overview: Objectives
COP18’s objectives were to: finalize KP2, close the Long-
term Cooperative Action strand, and advance discussions
on the new post-KP 2020 treaty.
 Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and
rules. (AWG-KP*)
 Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the Bali Action Plan and retire the Ad
Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action. (AWG-LCA*)
 Create a new treaty. Begin a process to translate the all-inclusive directive of the
Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will
have emissions reduction targets. (ADP*)

At its conclusion COP18 closed the working groups on the Kyoto Protocol and on
Long-term Cooperative Action. Henceforth, the Durban Platform will be the single
negotiating forum.
* AWG-KP Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; AWG-LCA Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative
Action under the Convention; ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action.


Outcomes: Doha Climate Gateway
The term "Doha Climate Gateway,” coined by COP18 President al-Attiyah,
refers to the package of outcomes from COP18 in Doha.
"Doha has opened up a
new gateway to bigger
After 13 lackluster yet contentious days, a package of ambition and to greater
action - the Doha Climate
decisions called the “Doha Climate Gateway” was delivered, Gateway” – Abdullah bin
Hamad al-Attiyah,
accompanied by sighs of relief but no fanfare. President COP 18 (Image Credit: UNFCCC)

Al-Attiyah, whose advisors included oil company lawyers, eventually enlisted the help of
Brazil’s Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado, a force at Rio+20, and South Africa’s Maite
Nkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President.

In the final plenary, Al-Attiya quickly gaveled through all the decisions and
overruled a serious objection from Russia on carry-over of surplus allowances in
the Kyoto Protocol.


Outcomes: KP2 Transition
“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not
here, then where?”

Before breathing last gasps of life into the Kyoto Protocol by
adopting terms of its 2nd period, negotiators witnessed this
impassioned plea from Philippine representative Naderev Sano. (Image and Video Credit: DavidLeeWilsonYT;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY)

Duration. The 2nd KP commitment period is 8 years, Jan. 1, 2013-Dec. 31, 2020.
Ratification. Parties may provisionally apply the amendment , pending its entry into
force through national ratification.
Players. Japan, New Zealand, and Russia will not participate. Canada left the Protocol in
2011. What's left will have limited impact as the KP now represents only 15% of
carbon emissions.
Global reactions included both relief that the troubled Protocol would bridge the
gap until a 2020 treaty and disappointment that the Protocol would never fulfill
the destiny envisioned at its inception.

Outcomes: KP2 “Hot Air”
Agreement was reached on KP2’s “hot air” details – new emissions targets and
carry-over of surplus carbon credits.
 Emissions targets. KP2 Annex I parties committed to emissions reductions
averaging 18% below 1990 levels and will review commitments by 2014 to
increase ambition to at least 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020.
 Flexibility mechanisms. KP2 Annex I parties will be able to trade carbon credits
generated by flexibility mechanisms. Non-KP2 parties (Canada, Japan, Russia, New
Zealand) may participate in CDM* projects but cannot acquire or transfer credits.
 Carbon credits. KP2 parties are allowed limited, conditional carry-over of surplus
credits from KP1. Credits will be held in a new account (“Previous Period Surplus
Reserve”) and can be traded if a country exceeds its new target and if that target is
more ambitious than KP1. The number of credits countries can trade is limited.

Currently, the new targets trail significantly behind the IPCC’s recommendation of
25%-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to 2C.
* CDM-Clean Development Mechanism Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 9

Outcomes: KP2 Dissent
One of the most vocal dissents at COP18 came from Russia over restrictions on
carbon credit carry-over.
Russia
Belarus
For some time now Russia has declared that it will not Ukraine Kazakhstan

participate in KP2, but now may take other countries with it.
Russia and several other Eastern European countries had
amassed a huge cache of carbon credits from closure of state-
owned industrial enterprises and fought to retain these.

A month after COP18, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan met to discuss an amendment
to the KP that requires industrialized countries to not exceed 2008-10 emissions levels. They
contend that they should not be required to meet the goal as they continue to industrialize.

There is speculation that Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan could refuse to
ratify the extension of Kyoto.


Outcomes: LCA & Bali Action Plan
Negotiators in Doha retired the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative
Action under the Bali Action Plan (AWG-LCA) and channeled remaining issues into
ongoing UNFCCC subsidiary bodies.

Issues:
 Shared Vision
 Mitigation
 Adaptation
 Loss and Damage
 Technology
 Finances
 Economies in Transition

Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Dec. 8, 2012

Doha’s actions on these issues were rendered in the outcome document
“Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan.”

Outcomes: Shared Vision
COP18 asserted the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities principle
(CBDR) as Parties “urgently work towards the deep reduction in global
greenhouse gas emissions.”
This “shared vision” includes attainment of global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as
possible, consistent with science and the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section I, Dec. 8, 2012

COP18 reaffirmed that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing
countries and that their efforts will be based on “respective capabilities.”


Outcomes: Mitigation
Much of the oversight responsibility for mitigation efforts was transferred
to UNFCCC subsidiary bodies.
Mitigation outcomes for developed countries focused on ambition and targets.
 Work to increase ambitions in line with the IPCC AR4*;
 Clarify emissions targets through a work program to be established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for
Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA*); countries must submit clarification of their targets by Mar. 25, 2013.
NAMAs
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
Mitigation outcomes for developing countries focused on Introduced as a new mechanism in the Bali
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). Action Plan 2007, NAMAs recognize
individual country actions defined on the
 Advance the understanding of NAMAs through a work program to be basis of economic and social development
established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI*); needs, and thereby make them eligible for
international support in the form of
 The Secretariat will organize regional technical workshops on NAMAs. capacity building, technology and financial
assistance.

The NAMA Partnership – a coalition of UN agencies, development banks, and
bilateral organizations - was launched on the sidelines of COP18 to share
information and coordinate NAMA activities
* IPCC AR4-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation

Outcomes: REDD+
Little progress was made on REDD+ at COP18. Negotiations
centered on results-based finance.

REDD+* donor countries, led by Norway, asserted that payments
should be tied to quantified emissions reductions, and urged
Mangrove Forest
independent verification. Credit: Arunchristopher via Wikimedia Commons

Developing countries, led by Brazil, want results-based finance to include social and
environmental benefits, and argue that they are already required to submit GHG
inventories to receive climate finance.
COP18 concluded with no agreement on the issues. The SBSTA* and SBI* will initiate a
process to improve the coordination and support for REDD+ activities.

Some believe that REDD+ will move in the direction of forest carbon trading.

* REDD+- Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation


Outcomes: Markets
Tasks related to the use of markets and of “new market mechanisms” in
mitigation were passed on to the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technical Advice.
COP18 requested the SBSTA* to conduct separate work programs to elaborate a
framework for using markets and non-market approaches, and to establish
procedures for “new market-based mechanisms.”
New Market Mechanisms
New market mechanisms might cover a whole sector in Building on the success of the Clean
Development Mechanism, the UNFCCC
a developing country rather than individual projects as intends to establish new market-based
instruments within the international climate
the CDM* does. policy framework that would generate carbon
credits which can be used to meet part of
developed countries targets.
Concepts include sectoral trading (cap-and-trade) and
sectoral crediting (a baseline-and-credit approach).
Parties also agreed to recognize mechanisms established outside the UNFCCC, such
as national or bilateral offsets.
* SBSTA - SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; CDM-Clean Development Mechanism


Outcomes: Adaptation
The COP made decisions on two important adaptation matters: National
Adaptation Plans and the Adaptation Committee.
COP18 approved guidelines to help Parties develop National
Adaptation Plans (NAPs) – long-term, flexible, and iterative
planning processes to help build adaptive capacity and respond to
climate change. Monsoon floods in Ambala, India 2010
Credit: Harsh Mangal via Wikimedia Commons

This is a departure from National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) – short-term,
highly project-based, limited to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Both LDCs and non-
LDC developing countries will receive funding to develop NAPs from the Global
Environment Facility.

A 3-yr work plan of the Adaptation Committee to unite various adaptation
workstreams under the UNFCCC and outside the Convention was also approved.

The Adaptation Committee will hold an annual forum in conjunction with the
COP to improve global exchange on adaptation.

Outcomes: “Loss & Damage”
One surprise at Doha was the emergence of a strong movement to articulate
the UNFCCC’s role in addressing loss and damage associated with climate
change.
Under pressure from LDCs* and island states
Parties agreed to establish institutional
arrangements to help vulnerable, developing
countries deal with losses and damages from Draft decision-/CP.18, Approaches to address loss and damage, para 9

climate change.
This could provide means to address rehabilitation, reconstruction, and compensation for
damages from extreme and slow-onset weather events such as storms, heavy rainfall,
hurricanes, flooding, and drought. However, interpreting this declaration into action was
left to future COPs.
Some developed countries voiced objections to any articulation in the loss and
damage concept that implied liability by countries with historically high GHG
emissions.
*LDCs-Least Developed Countries

Outcomes: Technology
Doha did not advance the conversation on technology transfer or the
contentious issue of intellectual property rights.
The UNFCCC has evolved several conduits for development and transfer of technology.*
In Doha Parties agreed to clarify at upcoming COPs the relationships between these
bodies, particularly between the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate
Technology and Network Centre (CTNC). UNEP was selected to lead a consortium and
develop the CTCN.

The contentious issue of intellectual property rights (IPR), one of the most controversial
issues in Doha, generated spirited discussion. Developing countries supported further
consideration of IPR, while developed countries were opposed.

There is no reference to IPR in the outcome
document, rendering IPR’s relation to technology
transfer in the UNFCCC decidedly vague. Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action
Plan, Section IV, Dec. 8, 2012

* See: UNFCCC Technology Work, http://unfccc.int/focus/technology/items/7000.php

Outcomes: Finances
At COP18 countries were urged to scale up climate finance since many have not
begun to fulfill commitments made in Copenhagen to mobilize US$100 billion
per year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation.
The Doha agreement called on them to pledge a portion specifically
for 2013-15 to prevent a gap between the “fast start finance”
period (which ended in 2012) and 2020.
Germany, UK, France, Denmark, Sweden and the
Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section V, Dec. 8, 2012
EU Commission pledged $10 billion USD up to 2015.

Economies-in-Transition (EITs) will be allowed some flexibility until 2020 with regard to
the provision of financial resources to non-Annex I parties. EITs are Parties officially
recognized by the UNFCCC as transitioning to a market economy.

Recognizing that financial tracking has been problematic, Doha scheduled
accounting issues to be addressed by 2014.


Outcomes: 2020 Treaty
Parties agreed to work speedily toward a universal climate change agreement
covering all countries from 2020 to be adopted by 2015, and to scale up efforts
before 2020 beyond existing emissions reduction pledges.
Discussions on the Durban Platform will proceed under two
workstreams: pre-2020 and post-2020.
 Meetings and workshops will be held in 2013 to prepare the
new agreement. Image: UN Flags
Credit: Aotearoa via Wikimedia Commons
 Proposals to enhance ambition must be submitted by governments by Mar. 1, 2013.
 To mobilize political will world leaders will convene in 2014 at the request of UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
 Elements of a negotiating text must be available at the end of 2014 and a draft text
must be available before May 2015.
To work speedily toward a new treaty, a second session of the ADP* may be held
Apr. 29-May 3, 2013 in Bonn, Germany if funding is available.
* ADP-Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

Science: Emerging Issues
But while the multilateral negotiating process slowly grinds on, climate
science supports more aggressive efforts.
Current KP2 emissions reduction commitments from Annex I countries average 18%*. A
new study** suggests that Annex I countries will need to reduce emissions by 50% for a
“medium chance of achieving 2C.”
“One of the main findings is that
new BAU emission projections
According to the report, the contribution to the global CO2 have led to about 2.5 GtCO2eq
budget reduction from non-Annex I countries is tracking in higher emission levels expected
from pledges by non-Annex I
figures low enough to necessitate a significant jump in the countries…This implies that for a
medium chance of achieving 2 C,
target for Annex I countries. Annex I countries would need to
reduce its emissions by about 50%
below 1990 levels by 2020”
Though COP18 articulated that Annex I commitments - Michel G. J. den Elzen, et al, Analysing
the greenhouse gas emission reductions of
must increase to 25-40% by 2020, as recommended in the the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I
countries by 2020.Netherlands , 2013
IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, this may not be enough.
* average of 18% emission reduction by Annex I parties below 1990 levels by 2020; BAU-business as usual
** den Elzen, Michel G.J., Andries F. Hof,Mark Roelfsema. Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020.Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Department of Climate, Air and Energy, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Science: Balancing the Budget
Many scientists believe that 2C is too lenient a target, and that the window of
opportunity to constrain that trajectory is quickly closing.
Current scientific estimates place our global “carbon budget” at
no more than about 565 gigatons of CO2 by 2050 to still have a
reasonable chance of staying within the 2C target.

Average global temperature is up 0.8C, and models indicate that
“With a twenty-year delay, you
even if CO2 levels stabilized immediately the increase would continue. can throw as much money as you
have at the problem, and the best
outcome you can get is a fifty-fifty
chance of keeping temperature
At current rates (2011 emissions were 31.6 gigatons, up 3.2% from rise below two degrees.” – Keywan
Riahi, IIASA* energy program
2010) we are projected to expend that budget by 2024. leader

Tough targets could force sequestration of 80% of an estimated 2,795 gigatons of
untapped fossil fuel reserves.

* IIASA – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Report on Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) 22

Ahead: COP19 Warsaw
The UNFCCC will reconvene at COP19 in Warsaw, Poland Nov.11-22, 2013.

Poland, like Qatar, has work to do to convince the global forum that it can
lead an effective climate summit. During COP18 Poland argued over
carbon credits and held the EU back from greater emissions cuts.

The larger issue is whether the UNFCCC’s lumbering and What’s Next?
Nov. 11-22, 2013: COP19 Warsaw,
beleaguered brand can produce effective multilateral 19th Session of the Conference of the
action. Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change and the 9th
Session of the Conference of the Parties
serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the
Failing that, will any strong bi- or tri-lateral coalitions Kyoto Protocol
emerge in time?

Watch for future installments of ISciences’ “Kyoto and Beyond” series at
http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html.

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Final Thought

“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?”
Naderev Sano,
Philippine representative at COP18 Doha,
Dec. 2012


Citation
When referencing this presentation please use the following citation.

ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Doha COP18. A slideshow; 11th installment in the
series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate
Change. April 5, 2013. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.


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