Agricultural Water Management: The Key to Food Security in a Changing World - David Molden, Deputy Director General, International Water Management Institute

1. Agricultural Water Management: The Key to Food Security in a Changing World David Molden International Water Management Institute

2. Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007

3. Drivers of Water Use Other Water Pressures Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025 Agriculture – Water fuels production increases Population & Diet– food grain production projected to increase by 100% by 2050 Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water availability – potential yields decline in Africa

4. Limits – Reached or Breached River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets Fisheries– ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production

5. ASIA: High Numbers of Poor, AFRICA: High Percentage Poor 1.7M poor, 960M undernourished people (12/2008, FAO)

6. Policy Concerns Food self-sufficiency – increase food production to meet growing population needs (need more water) Save water from agriculture – to meet needs of growing cities and environment (less water for ag) Water to fight poverty (more water) IS THERE ENOUGH WATER?

7. Will there be enough water?

8. Will there be enough water? More People – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs double Something has to change More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, double water needs This equation doesn’t work – something has to change

9. Water Use – Today and 2050 Today 2050 No Water Productivity Gains Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains, Crop ET doubles by 2050

10. Climate Change

11. Some areas will be wetter, others drier, more rainfall variability, all hotter Source: Arnell, 2003.

12. Water Scarcity and Climate Change Some areas wetter, some areas drier Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007.

13. Climate Change, Water, Agriculture3 Critical Concerns Glacial Snowmelt – Himalayas, Andes, African Highlands Rising Sea Levels - River delta systems Mekong, Egypt’s Nile Delta Climate Variability – across sub-Saharan Africa

14. Water implications of mitigation measures? Biofuels Afforestation

15. Water Management Solutions Olivia Molden

16. Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands Invest in rainfed agriculture Invest in irrigation Improve productivity of existing systems Expand irrigation Promote trade from highly productive to less productive regions Manage demand, consume and waste less

17. Consider the Full Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services

18. 1. Water to Fight Poverty –what is potential?

19. Where are the rural poor in SSA ? Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty

20. Poverty reduction potential of AWM solutions across livelihood zones Source: FAO, 2008: Water and Rural Poverty

21. Who could benefit from Agricultural Water Management Solutions? This Project (Gates funded Ag Water Management Solutions): 65M rural poor livelihoods improved in 15 years

22. 2. Transform water governance Poverty, hunger, gender inequality, and ecosystem degradation continue - not because of technical failings but because of political and institutional failings Water availability has changed, but our actions have not No blueprints - need to craft local solutions

24. Form Coalitions Emerging interest of private sector Important to trigger policy change

25. 6150 7,000 4729 6,000 5,000 3255 4,000 2486 3,000 1406 1287 2,000 746 1,000 43 4 0 China Laos Brazil South Africa Kenya Ethiopia North Thailand America Australia Water storage mitigates variability 3. Water Storage – a safeguard against climate variability But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater “groundwater banking” and soil moisture. And beyond: insurance, local trade Cubic meters per capita Source: World Bank data from ICOLD

26. MAKING STORAGE “SMARTER” –storage continuum ACCESS SURFACE SUBSURFACE Increasing capital costs Increasing complexity of management Increasing environmental and social cost Reservoirs large small Ponds and Tanks Boreholes, deep /shallow wells Aquifers deep shallow Soil Moisture Natural wetlands Increasing resilience Increasing resilience Dam outlets, pumps, off-take towers Direct, Buckets, pumps Planting crops All of the above

27. 4. Manage Water Demand Reducing withdrawals mitigates – half of India’s irrigation is from groundwater requiring pumps Put in place innovative incentives, allocation, pricing policies to curtail water demands Food waste is water waste

28. 5. Grow more food per unit of water

30. Beef 5000 to 20000 liters/kgIPCC – crop yields in SSA could decline by 50%, but Comprehensive Assessment says could more than double with investment and management

31. Number of publications related to water productivity from 1990 to 2007 (The result is from Google Scholar search using fixed term “water productivity” )

32. Opportunities in RainfedAgriculture Largest opportunities to build resilience and improve water productivity are in rainfed landscapes – low water productivity, high poverty Technology water harvesting, supplemental irrigation Field water conservation to reduce nonproductive evaporation Improved nutrients Drought resistance varieties Expand Policiesto includeupgrading rainfedsystems

34. Food security

35. EnvironmentLarge scope to improve Performance Water productivity variations

36. It won’t be easy Adoption rates are low– water productivity not necessarily a farmer concern, markets may not be in place, need to understand political-economy of water useScale effects- Farm water productivity gains can increase basin depletion, not save water Need to understand tradeoffsand align incentivesof different actors by a variety of means (economic incentives, allocation)

37. Water Use – Today and 2050 Today No Water Productivity Gains 2050 CA Scenario CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can further reduce water needs Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA

38. Summary - Water Agenda Change national perceptions Water access and productivity – high poverty reduction potential Transform water governance Data, monitoring, modeling and feedback to support adaptive management Rethink water storage – (eg groundwater banking) Manage water demand Grow more food per unit of water Revitalize irrigation, upgrade rainfed agriculture