Presentation from HSE Foresight conference October 2013

1. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
The Future for Services
Ian Miles
Higher School of Economics Moscow 2013
www.hse.ru

2. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
The Future for Services
• The Future for Service(s) versus the Futures is Service(s)
• Service versus Services
• Trends “we all know”
• Transformations of Service
• Challenges
• Foresight work ignores service developments at its risk.
• Importance of:
• Grasping trends and transformations
• Seeing services as users of Foresight
• Seeing Foresight as service

3. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Common Knowledge: Expansion of
Service Industries
World Bank, 2000,
Beyond Economic
Growth at:
www.worldbank.org
/depweb/beyond/
global/chapter9.ht
ml

4. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
20
30
40
50
60
70
1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*
World
Developed Economies and
European Union
Central and South Eastern
Europe (non-EU) & CIS
East Asia
South-East Asia and the
Pacific
South Asia
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Middle East
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source:
ILO, Global
Employment
Trends,
January 2009
http://www.ilo.org/wcms
p5/groups/public/@dgre
ports/@dcomm/docume
nts/publication/wcms_10
1461.pdf
Service Sector Employment growing in all
regions Services-Dominated Economies

5. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Common Knowledge: Services are
a Global Force
• Service Transnationals
• Service Offshoring

6. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Common Knowledge: Services are
being Transformed through IT use
• Service Industries as Major Consumers of new
IT
• New IT as Technological and Industrial
Revolution in Service Industries
• Service Innovation in Process and Products

7. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Information Technology
evolution
70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s?
Inspired by Marc Weiser et al: - cf: I Miles (2005) “Be Here Now”, INFO Vol.
7 No. 2, pp49-71
Mainframe
 mini
VANs
Experts
Centralised
Numbers
Micro
 PC
LANs
Profess-
ionals
“End-
User”
Text/
graphics
Networks
& laptops
Web
Public
Content
Commun-
ication
Tablet, sm
artphone
WiFi, 3G
Wide
public
Web2.0,
P2P
Multimedia
Sensors, A
ctuators
WiMax, 4
G,cloud
Ubiquit-
ous
Internet of
things, loc
ations
Control
Biodevice
+ + +
Ambient
Semantic
web
Enhance-
ment

8. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Mainframe
 mini
VANs
Experts
Centralised
Numbers
Micro
 PC
LANs
Profess-
ionals
“End-
User”
Text/
graphics
Networks
& laptops
Web
Public
Content
Commun-
ication
Tablet, sm
artphone
WiFi, 3G,
Wide
public
Web2.0,
P2P
Multimedia
Sensors, A
ctuators
WiMax, 4
G,cloud
Ubiquit-
ous
Internet of
things, loc
ations
Control
Biodevice?
+ + +
Ambient
Semantic
web
Enhance-
ment
Information Society
70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s?
One for
Many People
One for a
Few People
One for Each
Person/Place
A Few for Each
Person/Place
Many for Each
Person/Place
Isolation Connectivity Networking Ubiquity
Island Archipelago Continent Ecosystem
Sottware
unbundling:
new KIBS
industry
Network
and new
Online
Services
Apps Everyday
services:
health and
lifestyleLocational
Services

9. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Mainframe
 mini
VANs
Experts
Centralised
Numbers
Micro
 PC
LANs
Profess-
ionals
“End-
User”
Text/
graphics
Networks
& laptops
Web
Public
Content
Commun-
ication
Tablet, sm
artphone
WiFi, 3G,
Wide
public
Web2.0,
P2P
Multimedia
Sensors, A
ctuators
WiMax, 4
G,cloud
Ubiquit-
ous
Internet of
things, loc
ations
Control
Biodevice?
+ + +
Ambient
Semantic
web
Enhance-
ment
Information Technology Use is
one shaper of Service Economy
70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s?
One for
Many People
One for a
Few People
One for Each
Person/Place
A Few for Each
Person/Place
Many for Each
Person/Place
Service
Economy
1.0
Service
Economy
2.0
Service
Economy
3.0
Evolving Views of Service Economy (and Service Innovation)

10. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Service
Economy
1.0
Service Economy 1.0
“Post-Industrial Society” - 1960s-’80s
• Economy of services sector(s)
• Growth driven by consumer demand, welfare state
provision, low productivity growth
• Innovation relatively low, supplier-driven; MoT seen
as adoption of technology from elsewhere
• Industries are pre- or post-industrial - too complicated
or particularised for mass production
• Industrialisation of services via scale and
modularisation
• Examples: Bell, Fuchs,Levitt, Touraine

11. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Service
Economy
2.0
Service Economy 2.0
Knowledge-Based Economy: 1980s-2000s
• New Information Technology widely adopted in
service organisations- especially back-office in large
organisations.
• New IT-related services assisting this - supporting
business processes and innovation across the
economy.
• New services and service delivery, new e-services.
• Information Society, Knowledge Economy
• Examples: Barras, Gershuny, Quinn.

12. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Service
Economy
3.0
Service Economy 3.0
Economy of Service(s) 2010s-
• Service orientation (Service-Dominant Logic) to
forefront: Synthesis viewpoint
• Continuing Emergence of Processes and Practices–
will be invigorated by use of new technologies like
sensors, data analytics, etc.
• Manufacturing – servicisiation and beyond.
• Product-service solutions and Grand Challenges
• Examples: Gallouj, Spohrer, Vargo/Lusch.

13. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Received wisdom is evolving...
• But may still fail to adequately deal with
several important factors and forces:
– Diversity of services
– Service is not necessarily upgraded
– New technologies may play major roles
– Manufacturing may be further transformed
– New tools for design of service systems.

14. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Three Transformational Types
Physical
Transformations
e.g Cleaning,
Transport
Often much manual,
sometimes low-skill work
Environmental
sustainability, “self-service”
Power and engine systems;
technologies under repair
etc.
Business model change
Human
Transformations
e.g. Health, Personal
Services
High presence, often high
involvement of
Consumer/User
Human
diversity, Interpersonal
relations
Many specialised, from very
low to very high-tech
Changing role of public
sector
Informational
Transformations
e.g
Finance, Communicati
ons
Range of mass and
customised services
Keeping apace of platforms
and users,IP
IT and supporting systems
(e.g. Batteries)
New functionality (e.g.
Location) and knowledge
(e.g. Neuro...)
Manual Activity Knowledge-intensive activity
Examples
Features
Challenges
Technologie
s
Trends
Many activities, and most service industries, involve some mixture of all three

15. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Services Innovation =/= Service
Improvement
• Industrialisation and standardisation
• Mass customisation and (a) choice dilemmas
(b) personal distance – overfamiliarity
• Scope for using social media, etc.

16. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Manufacturing-Services
• Beyond servicsiation
• Communications systems linking
manufacturing production processes with
customers...
• ...and consumption processes with producers.
• Plus new modes of factoryless manufacturing,
including 3-D printing, nanomanufacturing

17. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Product-Service Systems
• Complex systems to analyse and model:
• Need for new tools and new design
approaches.
• Service design as critical for Future for
Services – and Future in general...
• Innovation and innovation management for
tools.

18. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
New Service Technologies
• Neurotechnology/cognitive science
• Information and biotechnologies for health,
sports, etc.

19. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
Conclusions
• Service thinking has evolved alongside growth
of “service economy” (-> economy of services)
• Services need Foresight
• Foresight is a service process and should be
approached as such
• Foresight exercises and activities need to take
into account growth and changing nature of
services.

20. © Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2013
End of Presentation