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Axis Bank 
July 23, 2014 
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that 
the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report 
 
Q1FY15 Result Update 
Reasonable performance; valuations still favourable ‐ BUY
Pritesh Bumb 
priteshbumb@plindia.com 
+91‐22‐66322232 
  
  
  
Rating  BUY 
Price  Rs2,016 
Target Price  Rs2,200 
Implied Upside   9.1% 
Sensex   26,026 
Nifty  7,768 
(Prices as on July 22, 2014) 
Trading data 
Market Cap. (Rs bn)  947.3 
Shares o/s (m)  469.8 
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m)  5025.8 
Major shareholders 
Promoters   29.17% 
Foreign   48.38% 
Domestic Inst.  11.15% 
Public & Other   11.30% 
Stock Performance 
 (%)  1M  6M  12M 
Absolute  8.0  69.6  68.0 
Relative   4.4  47.6  38.9 
How we differ from Consensus 
EPS (Rs)  PL  Cons.  % Diff. 
2015  150.5  151.1  ‐0.4 
2016  180.9  180.3  0.4 
 
Price Performance (RIC: AXBK.BO, BB: AXSB IN) 
 
Source: Bloomberg 
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jul‐13
Sep‐13
Nov‐13
Jan‐14
Mar‐14
May‐14
Jul‐14
(Rs)
Axis  bank’s  Q1FY15  performance  has  been  in  line  with  expectations  barring  for 
sluggish  other  income  which  has  de‐grown  by  5%  YoY.  Asset  quality  showed  a 
slight blip but was well within guidance. FY15 PPOP growth challenges remain on 
fees and margins sustainability, but we believe Axis bank’s valuations at 1.7x Mar‐
16 book are still favourable and could move to 2x considering well diversified asset 
book now, best in class liability franchise and better underwriting standards.  
 Sluggish  fees drags  down  PPOP  performance:  Axis  bank’s  PPOP  performance 
was almost flat on sluggish fees driven down by slowdown in large corporate 
loan book resulting in lower fee growth. NII growth of 15% YoY has been up to 
expectations as NIMs held up well at ~3.9% in Q1FY15. Margins sustainability 
now  looks  questionable  but  management  has  guided  NIMs  to  remain  above 
3.5% going ahead and expected fees recovery to only come at end of FY15 which 
creates challenge for higher PPOP growth in FY15. We expect PPOP growth of 
16% in FY15.  
 Asset quality – Some blips but well within guidance: Bank’s Gross slippages and 
restructuring at ~Rs11bn was well within guidance (Rs65bn FY15 guidance which 
remains  unchanged)  leading  to  ~70bps  of  specific  credit  losses.  Bank  clarified 
largely  mid‐corporate  segment  contributed  to  slippages  in  Q1FY15.  It  has 
provided  about  Rs470m  for  un‐hedged  forex  exposures  and  SMA  accounts, 
while it has ~Rs8.0bn of specific provisions buffer on its books (not included in 
credit costs) which provides comfort on credit losses. As highlighted from our 
previous  updates,  we  have  been  buoyant  on  Axis  Bank’s  asset  quality  and 
continue to do so on better underwriting and now tilt towards secured assets.  
 Valuations still reasonable; Remains preferred sector pick: Axis has been able 
to  successfully  diverse  its  business  mix  from  ~25%  to  38%  retail  (after 
reclassification of agri book) in last 2 years which has offset the corporate book 
slowdown.  Upbeat  liability  franchise,  better  underwriting  and  stable  asset 
quality has been reason for multiples to rerate from 1.1x in FY13 to 1.7x in FY14 
on 1yr fwd book, but we believe valuations are still reasonable and could move 
upto 2x 1yr fwd book and hence maintain BUY with increased PT of Rs2,200.
Key financials ( Y/e March)                     2013 2014  2015E 2016E
Net interest income (Rs m)  96,663 119,516  136,138 157,739
     Growth (%)  20.6 23.6  13.9 15.9
Operating profit (Rs m)  93,031 114,561  132,904 153,935
PAT (Rs m)  51,794 62,177  70,688 85,002
EPS (Rs)  110.7 132.3  150.5 180.9
     Growth (%)  7.8 19.6  13.7 20.2
Net DPS (Rs)  18.0 20.0  23.0 26.5
 
 Profitability & Valuation                        2013 2014  2015E 2016E
NIM (%)  3.09 3.30  3.24 3.14
RoAE (%)  18.5 17.4  17.2 17.9
RoAA (%)  1.65 1.72  1.68 1.69
P / BV (x)  2.8 2.5  2.2 1.9
P / ABV (x)  2.8 2.5  2.2 1.9
PE (x)  18.2 15.2  13.4 11.1
Net dividend yield (%)  0.9 1.0  1.1 1.3
Source: Company Data; PL Research 
   
July 23, 2014  2
  Axis Bank 
Exhibit 1: Q1FY15  –  PPOP  performance  dragged  by  de‐growth  in  other  income;  asset 
quality remains relatively stable 
1Q14 4Q14  1Q15  YoY QoQ
Interest income  72,778 79,652  82,894  13.9% 4.1%
Interest expenses  44,126 47,995  49,789  12.8% 3.7%
Net interest income  28,652 31,658  33,105  15.5% 4.6%
Other income  17,813 22,134  16,911  ‐5.1% ‐23.6%
Operating expenses  18,030 21,314  21,059  16.8% ‐1.2%
Pre prov profit  28,436 32,477  28,957  1.8% ‐10.8%
Provisions  7,122 5,052  3,866  ‐45.7% ‐23.5%
Profit before tax  21,313 27,425  25,091  17.7% ‐8.5%
Provision for tax  7,224 9,002  8,423  16.6% ‐6.4%
Profit after tax  14,089 18,423  16,668  18.3% ‐9.5%
  
NIM  3.86% 3.89%  3.88%  0.02% ‐0.01%
Cost to Income  38.8% 39.6%  42.1%  3.30% 2.48%
Tax rate  33.9% 32.8%  33.6%  ‐0.32% 0.75%
  
Balance sheet data 
Advances  1,981,513 2,300,668  2,305,352  16.3% 0.2%
Deposits  2,384,406 2,798,768  2,720,042  14.1% ‐2.8%
Credit to Deposit  83.1% 82.2%  84.8%  1.7% 2.6%
CASA Ratio  42.4% 45.2%  42.4%  0.0% ‐2.8%
  
Asset Quality 
Gross NPA  24,897 31,464  34,633  39.1% 10.1%
Net NPA  7,897 10,246  11,135  41.0% 8.7%
NPA coverage (%)  68.3% 67.4%  67.8%  ‐0.4% 0.4%
Gross NPA (%)  1.10 1.22  1.34  0.24 0.12
Net NPA (%)  0.35 0.40  0.44  0.09 0.04
LLP/Loans  1.20 1.06  0.70  (0.50) (0.37)
Gross slippages  6810 3,010  6260  ‐8.1% 108.0%
Recoveries+ Up gradations 720 1,490  970  34.7% ‐34.9%
Write offs  5130 140  2120  ‐58.7% 1414.3%
Gross Slippages  1.37% 0.52%  1.09%  ‐0.3% 0.6%
O/s Restructured Loans  42,110 60,790  62,890  49.3% 3.5%
% of Loans  2.13% 2.64%  2.73%  0.6% 0.1%
Additions in the Qtr  6,860 11,150  4,800  ‐30.0% ‐57.0%
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Upbeat NIM performance has resulted in 
NII growth of ~16% YoY
Core fee income was weak mainly from
slowing corporate loan book. Retail fees
has been sole contributor to growth –
Management indicated corporate fees
growth of 15‐20% in Q3‐Q4 onwards which
will help overall fee growth of 10‐13% YoY
Opex growth up slightly  on employee
expenses – There are enough levers to
control costs as per the management
Balance sheet growth has largely been 
aided by retail growth with corporate book
slowdown continuing. Adjusting to FCNR
core retail grew at 28% YoY
Slippages + incremental restructuring at 
Rs11bn for Q1 (within guidance of run‐
rate) was in line with expectation –
Slippages of Rs6bn (lower from Q1FY14)
were largely from mid‐corporate segment
   
July 23, 2014  3
  Axis Bank 
Key Q1FY15 Concall Highlights: 
Growth: 
 Reported  loan  growth  at  16.3%  driven  by  retail  book  growth  of  ~35%  YoY. 
Adjusted to FCNR loans core retail advances have grown by 28% YoY. 
 Corporate loan book growth can grow in lower double digits by end of FY15. 
Assets & Liability franchise: 
 Retail book – Now 38% of advances is retail book adjusted to FCNR loans (incl 
Agri reclassification) with desire to take it to 45% of advances in next 3‐4 years 
 Have  re‐organized  existing  agri  business  into  retail  &  SME.  Shifted  Rs133bn 
loans to retail advances and Rs29bn loans to SME from Agri loans segment 
 Housing loans/LAP – Has been decent and seeing no large pressures. 40% of 
portfolio qualifies for affordable housing and of this two‐third is PSL (of 40%) 
 Auto loans – Market share improving but overall disbursement has been in 12‐
14% range 
 Existing liability customers contribute to two‐thirds of business. Average CASA 
has been very stable in Q1FY15 
NIMs: 
 Better asset‐liability mix has resulted in better margins in Q1. Maintain NIMs to 
remain +3.5% going ahead also. 
 Composition ‐ Domestic  at 4.18% and International NIMs at 1.62% 
Fees: 
 Lower  projects/capex  has  impacted  corporate  fees.  Expect  corporate  fees  to 
pick  up  by  Q4FY15,  which  will  also  support  for  10‐12%  growth  in  overall  fee 
income 
 Miscellaneous income had repatriation of profits in Q1FY14 which was not done 
in Q1FY15. Surplus profits for repatriation have not been exhausted yet from 
overseas branches. 
 Enough diversification there in retail fees for growth. Only some products are 
loan growth linked but other are payment driven from cards, remits etc. 
Opex & Branches:  
 Opex growth at 16% YoY. Have enough room for bringing down costs ahead also 
but will have to look at right avenues to cut costs.  
 Planning to add 200‐300 branches in FY15. Branch composition will be more on 
metro & urban as RBI’s dispensation has been exhausted on rural branches.  
   
July 23, 2014  4
  Axis Bank 
Asset Quality: 
 Slippages  ‐  Rs6.26bn,  Recoveries  &  Upgrades  Rs970m  and  Write‐offs  – 
Rs2.12bn. Mid‐corporate mainly contributed to slippages in Q1FY15  
 Provisions  break‐up  –  NPA  ‐  Rs3.35bn,  Invt  Depreciation  Rs  (150)m  and  Std 
Assets –Rs680m of which Rs470m provided for Un‐hedged forex exposure and 
Rs170m  for  SMA  accounts.  Cumulative  provisions  of  Rs9.5bn  held  against 
restructured assets. Also have ~Rs8bn of provision buffer on specific provisions  
 Guidance for stressed assets remains at Rs65bn for FY15 as there has been no 
change in credit environment. Will review after H2FY14. 
 Reported Credit cost – 58bps in Q1FY15 v/s 115bps in Q1FY14 
 Sold Rs110m to ARCs but on absolute cash basis 
Others: 
 Tier I capital at 16.1% (incl profits of Q1FY15). Un‐hedged exposure impact of 
18bps on Tier I.  
Exhibit 2: Retail/SME/Agri drives loan growth; corporate book growth remains muted  
  1Q14 4Q14*  1Q15  YoY QoQ
Total Advances  1,981,513 2,300,668  2,305,352  16.3% 0.2%
Large Corporate  990,756 1,022,380  1,018,410  2.8% ‐0.4%
SME  307,139 355,020  374,710  22.0% 5.5%
Retail  676,240 707,450  912,230  34.9% 28.9%
‐  Housing loan  493,655 509,364  556,460  12.7% 9.2%
‐  Personal loans  54,099 56,596  65,681  21.4% 16.1%
‐  Cards  13,525 14,149  16,420  21.4% 16.1%
‐  Auto loans  81,149 84,894  91,223  12.4% 7.5%
‐  Retail Agri  109,180 0  136,835  25.3% ‐
‐ Others  33,812 42,447  45,612  34.9% 7.5%
Source: Company Data, PL Research  * on reclassification of Agri loans, QoQ not comparable 
Exhibit 3: Retail fees supporting overall fee growth, corporate fees sluggish 
Fees breakdown  1Q14* 4Q14  1Q15*  YoY QoQ
Retail banking  3,951 5,950  5,099  29.0% ‐14.3%
Business banking  1,317 1,424  1,378  4.6% ‐3.2%
Agri & SME banking  659 1,424  490  ‐25.6% ‐65.6%
Treasury  3,293 3,560  3,307  0.4% ‐7.1%
Large & Mid corp  3,819 5,380  3,445  ‐9.8% ‐36.0%
Total  13,170 17,800  13,780  4.6% ‐22.6%
Source: Company Data, PL Research   *reclassified Agri fees in retail & SME fees 
Fees picked up in Q4FY14 but disappointed 
in Q1FY15 on slowing corporate fees. Retail
fees have been sole contributor to growth.
Bank has adjusted Agri & SME fees on
reclassification
   
July 23, 2014  5
  Axis Bank 
Exhibit 4: Margins remain upbeat at ~3.9% 
3.10
3.20
3.30
3.40
3.50
3.60
3.70
3.80
3.90
4.00
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Net Interest Margin (%)
 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 5: CASA performance has been stable especially SA 
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 6: Opex growth remains under control 
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Staff Expense Other Opex
 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 7: Stressed assets accretion of Rs11bn in Q1FY15 was lower than that of Q4FY14 
3Q13 4Q13 1Q14  2Q14  3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Gross slippages  5,410 3,980 6,810  6,180  5,890  3,010 6,260
Recoveries+ Up gradations 1,800 2,050 720  2,660  1,220  1,490 970
Write‐offs  2,800 750 5,130  1,070  1,930  1,40 2,120
Slippages (%)  1.23% 0.85% 1.38%  1.24%  1.14% 0.52% 1.09%
O/s Restructured book  42,570  43,680  42,110  48,070  49,000  60,790  62,890
Addition in the qtr  3,680  7,910  6,860  10,310  6,700  11,150 4,800
% of loan book  2.37% 2.22% 2.13%  2.41%  2.37% 2.64%  2.73%
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Opex leverage still available with the Bank,
but have balance for right avenues to cut
cost
   
July 23, 2014  6
  Axis Bank 
Exhibit 8: GNPAs inch up on slippages from mid‐corporate but well within guidance 
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
% of Gross NPAs % of Net NPAs
 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 9: Improvement in AAA rating by 1bps but increase in <BBB rating by 2bps 
6% 8% 6% 7% 7% 9% 12% 11% 11% 11%
23% 19% 18% 16% 16% 16% 14% 15% 14% 15%
41% 40% 40% 39% 38% 37% 37% 36% 37% 35%
27% 30% 33% 34% 34% 32% 31% 32% 31% 30%
3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
AAA AA A BBB <BBB or unrated
 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 10: Some rating downgrade at lower level in SME 4‐7 ratings 
5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6%
18% 18% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 16%
57% 57% 59% 56% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 56%
12% 12% 10% 10% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 14%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
SME 1 SME 2 SME 3 SME 4 SME 5‐7
 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
   
July 23, 2014  7
  Axis Bank 
Exhibit 11: Qtrly ROE tree – ROAs impacted mainly from slowdown in fees/assets 
ROA Tree  4Q13 1Q14  2Q14  3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Net Interest Income/Assets  3.23% 3.42%  3.45%  3.36% 3.41% 3.47%
Fees/Assets  2.15% 1.60%  2.07%  1.81% 2.15% 1.50%
Investment profits/Assets  0.29% 0.52%  0.01%  0.04% 0.23% 0.27%
Net revenues/Assets  5.67% 5.54%  5.52%  5.21% 5.79% 5.25%
Operating Expense/Assets  ‐2.27% ‐2.15%  ‐2.29%  ‐2.27% ‐2.30% ‐2.21%
Provisions/Assets  ‐0.72% ‐0.85%  ‐0.81%  ‐0.23% ‐0.54% ‐0.41%
Taxes/Assets  ‐0.79% ‐0.86%  ‐0.82%  ‐0.91% ‐0.97% ‐0.88%
Total Costs/Assets  ‐3.78% ‐3.86%  ‐3.92%  ‐3.40% ‐3.81% ‐3.50%
ROA  1.89% 1.68%  1.60%  1.81% 1.98% 1.75%
Equity/Assets  9.00% 10.14%  10.44%  10.39% 10.22% 10.26%
ROE  20.96% 16.56%  15.31%  17.37% 19.43% 17.04%
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 12: Raise Mar‐15 PT to Rs2200/share valued implied at 2x FY16 ABV 
Risk free rate  8.0%
Equity Risk Premium  6.0%
Beta  1.20
Cost of Equity  15.2%
Terminal growth  5.0%
Normalised ROE  21.1%
Stage 2 growth  19.0%
Mar‐15 PT  2200
Implied Mar‐16 P/B  2.02
Implied Mar‐16 P/E  12.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 13: Valuations still have significant upside on historical basis 
0.50 
1.50 
2.50 
3.50 
4.50 
Jul‐05
Jan‐06
Jul‐06
Jan‐07
Jul‐07
Jan‐08
Jul‐08
Jan‐09
Jul‐09
Jan‐10
Jul‐10
Jan‐11
Jul‐11
Jan‐12
Jul‐12
Jan‐13
Jul‐13
Jan‐14
Jul‐14
 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
   
   
July 23, 2014  8
  Axis Bank 
Income Statement (Rs m) 
Y/e March   2013  2014  2015E 2016E
Int. Earned from Adv.  191,662  219,504  257,039 295,076
Int. Earned from Invt.  77,470  83,431  89,228 103,291
Others  2,694  3,476  3,838 4,272
Total Interest Income  271,826  306,412  350,105 402,638
Interest expense  175,163  186,895  213,967 244,900
NII  96,663  119,516  136,138 157,739
     Growth (%)  20.6  23.6  13.9 15.9
Treasury Income  5,818  3,133  6,000 6,000
NTNII  59,693  70,919  80,890 93,520
Non Interest Income  65,511  74,052  86,890 99,520
Total Income  337,337  380,464  436,995 502,159
     Growth (%)  23.0  12.8  14.9 14.9
Operating Expense  69,142  79,008  90,125 103,323
Operating Profit  93,031  114,561  132,904 153,935
     Growth (%)  25.2  23.1  16.0 15.8
NPA Provisions  14,799  17,810  27,398 27,066
Investment Provisions  (1,039)  (1,003)  — —
Total Provisions  17,501  21,070  27,398 27,066
PBT  75,531  93,490  105,505 126,869
Tax Provisions  23,736  31,313  34,817 41,867
     Effective Tax Rate (%)  31.4  33.5  33.0 33.0
PAT  51,794  62,177  70,688 85,002
     Growth (%)  22.1  20.0  13.7 20.2
 
Balance Sheet (Rs m) 
Y/e March        2013  2014  2015E 2016E
Par Value  10  10  10 10
No. of equity shares  468  470  470 470
Equity  4,680  4,698  4,698 4,698
Networth   331,079  382,205  440,250 510,712
Adj. Networth  324,037  371,959  424,297 489,878
Deposits  2,526,136  2,809,446  3,278,077 3,951,677
     Growth (%)  14.8  11.2  16.7 20.5
Low Cost deposits  1,120,998  1,264,623  1,490,321 1,814,344
     % of total deposits  44.4  45.0  45.5 45.9
Total Liabilities  3,405,607  3,832,449  4,582,717 5,456,212
Net Advances  1,969,660  2,300,668  2,691,781 3,230,137
     Growth (%)  16.0  16.8  17.0 20.0
Investments  1,137,375  1,135,484  1,290,492 1,508,690
Total Assets  3,405,607  3,832,449  4,582,717 5,456,212
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
   
Quarterly Financials (Rs m) 
Y/e March       Q2FY14  Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15
Interest Income  76,090  77,891 79,652 82,894
Interest Expense  46,723  48,051 47,995 49,789
Net Interest Income  29,367  29,840 31,658 33,105
Non Interest Income  17,661  16,444 22,134 16,911
     CEB  14,320  14,560 17,800 13,780
     Treasury  50  350 2,170 2,600
Net Total Income  47,028  46,284 53,792 50,015
Operating Expenses  19,530  20,134 21,314 21,059
     Employee Expenses  6,439  6,551 6,593 7,517
     Other Expenses  13,090  13,583 14,722 13,541
Operating Profit  27,498  26,150 32,477 28,957
Core Operating Profit  27,448  25,800 30,307 26,357
Provisions  6,875  2,025 5,052 3,866
     Loan loss provisions  —  — — —
     Investment Depreciation  —  — — —
Profit before tax  20,623  24,125 27,425 25,091
Tax  7,000  8,084 9,002 8,423
PAT before EO  13,623  16,041 18,423 16,668
Extraordinary item  —  — — —
PAT  13,623  16,041 18,423 16,668
 
Key Ratios 
Y/e March     2013  2014 2015E 2016E
CMP (Rs)  2,016  2,016 2,016 2,016
Equity Shrs. Os. (m)  468  470 470 470
Market Cap (Rs m)  943,537  947,348 947,348 947,348
     M/Cap to AUM (%)  27.7  24.7 20.7 17.4
EPS (Rs)  110.7  132.3 150.5 180.9
Book Value (Rs)  708  813 937 1,087
Adj. BV (75%) (Rs)  708  812 934 1,083
P/E (x)  18.2  15.2 13.4 11.1
P/BV (x)  2.8  2.5 2.2 1.9
P/ABV (x)  2.8  2.5 2.2 1.9
DPS (Rs)  18.0  20.0 23.0 26.5
     Dividend Yield (%)  0.9  1.0 1.1 1.3
 
Profitability (%) 
Y/e March       2013  2014 2015E 2016E
NIM  3.1  3.3 3.2 3.1
RoAA  1.7  1.7 1.7 1.7
RoAE  18.5  17.4 17.2 17.9
 
Efficiency 
Y/e March       2013  2014 2015E 2016E
Cost‐Income Ratio (%)  42.6  40.8 40.4 40.2
C‐D Ratio (%)  78.0  81.9 82.1 81.7
Business per Emp. (Rs m)  129  127 129 135
Profit per Emp. (Rs lacs)  14.8  15.5 15.3 16.0
Business per Branch (Rs m)  2,435  2,407 2,445 2,558
Profit per Branch (Rs m)  28  29 29 30
 
Asset Quality 
Y/e March      2013  2014 2015E 2016E
Gross NPAs (Rs m)  23,934  31,460 48,982 63,968
Net NPAs (Rs m)  7,041  10,246 15,953 20,834
Gr. NPAs to Gross Adv. (%)  1.2  1.4 1.8 2.0
Net NPAs to Net Adv. (%)  0.4  0.4 0.6 0.6
NPA Coverage (%)  70.6  67.4 67.4 67.4
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
   
July 23, 2014  9
  Axis Bank 
                                               
                                     
 
 
 
 
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India 
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209 
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage   
29.0%
51.4%
19.6%
0.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell
% of Total Coverage
 
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature     
BUY   :  Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months  Accumulate  :  Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months 
Reduce  :  Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months  Sell  :  Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months 
Trading Buy  :  Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month  Trading Sell  :  Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month 
Not Rated (NR)  :  No specific call on the stock  Under Review (UR)  :  Rating likely to change shortly 
This  document  has  been  prepared  by  the  Research  Division  of  Prabhudas  Lilladher  Pvt.  Ltd.  Mumbai,  India  (PL)  and  is  meant  for  use  by  the  recipient  only  as 
information and is not for circulation.  This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be 
considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. 
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy 
or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, 
statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. 
Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The 
suitability  or  otherwise  of  any  investments  will  depend  upon  the  recipient's  particular  circumstances  and,  in  case  of  doubt,  advice  should  be  sought  from  an 
independent expert/advisor. 
Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or 
engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. 
We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. 

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Axis Bank Q1FY15: Reasonable performance; valuations still favourable

  • 1.     Axis Bank  July 23, 2014  Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that  the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.  Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report    Q1FY15 Result Update  Reasonable performance; valuations still favourable ‐ BUY Pritesh Bumb  priteshbumb@plindia.com  +91‐22‐66322232           Rating  BUY  Price  Rs2,016  Target Price  Rs2,200  Implied Upside   9.1%  Sensex   26,026  Nifty  7,768  (Prices as on July 22, 2014)  Trading data  Market Cap. (Rs bn)  947.3  Shares o/s (m)  469.8  3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m)  5025.8  Major shareholders  Promoters   29.17%  Foreign   48.38%  Domestic Inst.  11.15%  Public & Other   11.30%  Stock Performance   (%)  1M  6M  12M  Absolute  8.0  69.6  68.0  Relative   4.4  47.6  38.9  How we differ from Consensus  EPS (Rs)  PL  Cons.  % Diff.  2015  150.5  151.1  ‐0.4  2016  180.9  180.3  0.4    Price Performance (RIC: AXBK.BO, BB: AXSB IN)    Source: Bloomberg  0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jul‐13 Sep‐13 Nov‐13 Jan‐14 Mar‐14 May‐14 Jul‐14 (Rs) Axis  bank’s  Q1FY15  performance  has  been  in  line  with  expectations  barring  for  sluggish  other  income  which  has  de‐grown  by  5%  YoY.  Asset  quality  showed  a  slight blip but was well within guidance. FY15 PPOP growth challenges remain on  fees and margins sustainability, but we believe Axis bank’s valuations at 1.7x Mar‐ 16 book are still favourable and could move to 2x considering well diversified asset  book now, best in class liability franchise and better underwriting standards.    Sluggish  fees drags  down  PPOP  performance:  Axis  bank’s  PPOP  performance  was almost flat on sluggish fees driven down by slowdown in large corporate  loan book resulting in lower fee growth. NII growth of 15% YoY has been up to  expectations as NIMs held up well at ~3.9% in Q1FY15. Margins sustainability  now  looks  questionable  but  management  has  guided  NIMs  to  remain  above  3.5% going ahead and expected fees recovery to only come at end of FY15 which  creates challenge for higher PPOP growth in FY15. We expect PPOP growth of  16% in FY15.    Asset quality – Some blips but well within guidance: Bank’s Gross slippages and  restructuring at ~Rs11bn was well within guidance (Rs65bn FY15 guidance which  remains  unchanged)  leading  to  ~70bps  of  specific  credit  losses.  Bank  clarified  largely  mid‐corporate  segment  contributed  to  slippages  in  Q1FY15.  It  has  provided  about  Rs470m  for  un‐hedged  forex  exposures  and  SMA  accounts,  while it has ~Rs8.0bn of specific provisions buffer on its books (not included in  credit costs) which provides comfort on credit losses. As highlighted from our  previous  updates,  we  have  been  buoyant  on  Axis  Bank’s  asset  quality  and  continue to do so on better underwriting and now tilt towards secured assets.    Valuations still reasonable; Remains preferred sector pick: Axis has been able  to  successfully  diverse  its  business  mix  from  ~25%  to  38%  retail  (after  reclassification of agri book) in last 2 years which has offset the corporate book  slowdown.  Upbeat  liability  franchise,  better  underwriting  and  stable  asset  quality has been reason for multiples to rerate from 1.1x in FY13 to 1.7x in FY14  on 1yr fwd book, but we believe valuations are still reasonable and could move  upto 2x 1yr fwd book and hence maintain BUY with increased PT of Rs2,200. Key financials ( Y/e March)                     2013 2014  2015E 2016E Net interest income (Rs m)  96,663 119,516  136,138 157,739      Growth (%)  20.6 23.6  13.9 15.9 Operating profit (Rs m)  93,031 114,561  132,904 153,935 PAT (Rs m)  51,794 62,177  70,688 85,002 EPS (Rs)  110.7 132.3  150.5 180.9      Growth (%)  7.8 19.6  13.7 20.2 Net DPS (Rs)  18.0 20.0  23.0 26.5    Profitability & Valuation                        2013 2014  2015E 2016E NIM (%)  3.09 3.30  3.24 3.14 RoAE (%)  18.5 17.4  17.2 17.9 RoAA (%)  1.65 1.72  1.68 1.69 P / BV (x)  2.8 2.5  2.2 1.9 P / ABV (x)  2.8 2.5  2.2 1.9 PE (x)  18.2 15.2  13.4 11.1 Net dividend yield (%)  0.9 1.0  1.1 1.3 Source: Company Data; PL Research 
  • 2.     July 23, 2014  2   Axis Bank  Exhibit 1: Q1FY15  –  PPOP  performance  dragged  by  de‐growth  in  other  income;  asset  quality remains relatively stable  1Q14 4Q14  1Q15  YoY QoQ Interest income  72,778 79,652  82,894  13.9% 4.1% Interest expenses  44,126 47,995  49,789  12.8% 3.7% Net interest income  28,652 31,658  33,105  15.5% 4.6% Other income  17,813 22,134  16,911  ‐5.1% ‐23.6% Operating expenses  18,030 21,314  21,059  16.8% ‐1.2% Pre prov profit  28,436 32,477  28,957  1.8% ‐10.8% Provisions  7,122 5,052  3,866  ‐45.7% ‐23.5% Profit before tax  21,313 27,425  25,091  17.7% ‐8.5% Provision for tax  7,224 9,002  8,423  16.6% ‐6.4% Profit after tax  14,089 18,423  16,668  18.3% ‐9.5%    NIM  3.86% 3.89%  3.88%  0.02% ‐0.01% Cost to Income  38.8% 39.6%  42.1%  3.30% 2.48% Tax rate  33.9% 32.8%  33.6%  ‐0.32% 0.75%    Balance sheet data  Advances  1,981,513 2,300,668  2,305,352  16.3% 0.2% Deposits  2,384,406 2,798,768  2,720,042  14.1% ‐2.8% Credit to Deposit  83.1% 82.2%  84.8%  1.7% 2.6% CASA Ratio  42.4% 45.2%  42.4%  0.0% ‐2.8%    Asset Quality  Gross NPA  24,897 31,464  34,633  39.1% 10.1% Net NPA  7,897 10,246  11,135  41.0% 8.7% NPA coverage (%)  68.3% 67.4%  67.8%  ‐0.4% 0.4% Gross NPA (%)  1.10 1.22  1.34  0.24 0.12 Net NPA (%)  0.35 0.40  0.44  0.09 0.04 LLP/Loans  1.20 1.06  0.70  (0.50) (0.37) Gross slippages  6810 3,010  6260  ‐8.1% 108.0% Recoveries+ Up gradations 720 1,490  970  34.7% ‐34.9% Write offs  5130 140  2120  ‐58.7% 1414.3% Gross Slippages  1.37% 0.52%  1.09%  ‐0.3% 0.6% O/s Restructured Loans  42,110 60,790  62,890  49.3% 3.5% % of Loans  2.13% 2.64%  2.73%  0.6% 0.1% Additions in the Qtr  6,860 11,150  4,800  ‐30.0% ‐57.0% Source: Company Data, PL Research  Upbeat NIM performance has resulted in  NII growth of ~16% YoY Core fee income was weak mainly from slowing corporate loan book. Retail fees has been sole contributor to growth – Management indicated corporate fees growth of 15‐20% in Q3‐Q4 onwards which will help overall fee growth of 10‐13% YoY Opex growth up slightly  on employee expenses – There are enough levers to control costs as per the management Balance sheet growth has largely been  aided by retail growth with corporate book slowdown continuing. Adjusting to FCNR core retail grew at 28% YoY Slippages + incremental restructuring at  Rs11bn for Q1 (within guidance of run‐ rate) was in line with expectation – Slippages of Rs6bn (lower from Q1FY14) were largely from mid‐corporate segment
  • 3.     July 23, 2014  3   Axis Bank  Key Q1FY15 Concall Highlights:  Growth:   Reported  loan  growth  at  16.3%  driven  by  retail  book  growth  of  ~35%  YoY.  Adjusted to FCNR loans core retail advances have grown by 28% YoY.   Corporate loan book growth can grow in lower double digits by end of FY15.  Assets & Liability franchise:   Retail book – Now 38% of advances is retail book adjusted to FCNR loans (incl  Agri reclassification) with desire to take it to 45% of advances in next 3‐4 years   Have  re‐organized  existing  agri  business  into  retail  &  SME.  Shifted  Rs133bn  loans to retail advances and Rs29bn loans to SME from Agri loans segment   Housing loans/LAP – Has been decent and seeing no large pressures. 40% of  portfolio qualifies for affordable housing and of this two‐third is PSL (of 40%)   Auto loans – Market share improving but overall disbursement has been in 12‐ 14% range   Existing liability customers contribute to two‐thirds of business. Average CASA  has been very stable in Q1FY15  NIMs:   Better asset‐liability mix has resulted in better margins in Q1. Maintain NIMs to  remain +3.5% going ahead also.   Composition ‐ Domestic  at 4.18% and International NIMs at 1.62%  Fees:   Lower  projects/capex  has  impacted  corporate  fees.  Expect  corporate  fees  to  pick  up  by  Q4FY15,  which  will  also  support  for  10‐12%  growth  in  overall  fee  income   Miscellaneous income had repatriation of profits in Q1FY14 which was not done  in Q1FY15. Surplus profits for repatriation have not been exhausted yet from  overseas branches.   Enough diversification there in retail fees for growth. Only some products are  loan growth linked but other are payment driven from cards, remits etc.  Opex & Branches:    Opex growth at 16% YoY. Have enough room for bringing down costs ahead also  but will have to look at right avenues to cut costs.    Planning to add 200‐300 branches in FY15. Branch composition will be more on  metro & urban as RBI’s dispensation has been exhausted on rural branches.  
  • 4.     July 23, 2014  4   Axis Bank  Asset Quality:   Slippages  ‐  Rs6.26bn,  Recoveries  &  Upgrades  Rs970m  and  Write‐offs  –  Rs2.12bn. Mid‐corporate mainly contributed to slippages in Q1FY15    Provisions  break‐up  –  NPA  ‐  Rs3.35bn,  Invt  Depreciation  Rs  (150)m  and  Std  Assets –Rs680m of which Rs470m provided for Un‐hedged forex exposure and  Rs170m  for  SMA  accounts.  Cumulative  provisions  of  Rs9.5bn  held  against  restructured assets. Also have ~Rs8bn of provision buffer on specific provisions    Guidance for stressed assets remains at Rs65bn for FY15 as there has been no  change in credit environment. Will review after H2FY14.   Reported Credit cost – 58bps in Q1FY15 v/s 115bps in Q1FY14   Sold Rs110m to ARCs but on absolute cash basis  Others:   Tier I capital at 16.1% (incl profits of Q1FY15). Un‐hedged exposure impact of  18bps on Tier I.   Exhibit 2: Retail/SME/Agri drives loan growth; corporate book growth remains muted     1Q14 4Q14*  1Q15  YoY QoQ Total Advances  1,981,513 2,300,668  2,305,352  16.3% 0.2% Large Corporate  990,756 1,022,380  1,018,410  2.8% ‐0.4% SME  307,139 355,020  374,710  22.0% 5.5% Retail  676,240 707,450  912,230  34.9% 28.9% ‐  Housing loan  493,655 509,364  556,460  12.7% 9.2% ‐  Personal loans  54,099 56,596  65,681  21.4% 16.1% ‐  Cards  13,525 14,149  16,420  21.4% 16.1% ‐  Auto loans  81,149 84,894  91,223  12.4% 7.5% ‐  Retail Agri  109,180 0  136,835  25.3% ‐ ‐ Others  33,812 42,447  45,612  34.9% 7.5% Source: Company Data, PL Research  * on reclassification of Agri loans, QoQ not comparable  Exhibit 3: Retail fees supporting overall fee growth, corporate fees sluggish  Fees breakdown  1Q14* 4Q14  1Q15*  YoY QoQ Retail banking  3,951 5,950  5,099  29.0% ‐14.3% Business banking  1,317 1,424  1,378  4.6% ‐3.2% Agri & SME banking  659 1,424  490  ‐25.6% ‐65.6% Treasury  3,293 3,560  3,307  0.4% ‐7.1% Large & Mid corp  3,819 5,380  3,445  ‐9.8% ‐36.0% Total  13,170 17,800  13,780  4.6% ‐22.6% Source: Company Data, PL Research   *reclassified Agri fees in retail & SME fees  Fees picked up in Q4FY14 but disappointed  in Q1FY15 on slowing corporate fees. Retail fees have been sole contributor to growth. Bank has adjusted Agri & SME fees on reclassification
  • 5.     July 23, 2014  5   Axis Bank  Exhibit 4: Margins remain upbeat at ~3.9%  3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.90 4.00 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Net Interest Margin (%)   Source: Company Data, PL Research  Exhibit 5: CASA performance has been stable especially SA  25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15   Source: Company Data, PL Research  Exhibit 6: Opex growth remains under control  0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Staff Expense Other Opex   Source: Company Data, PL Research  Exhibit 7: Stressed assets accretion of Rs11bn in Q1FY15 was lower than that of Q4FY14  3Q13 4Q13 1Q14  2Q14  3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Gross slippages  5,410 3,980 6,810  6,180  5,890  3,010 6,260 Recoveries+ Up gradations 1,800 2,050 720  2,660  1,220  1,490 970 Write‐offs  2,800 750 5,130  1,070  1,930  1,40 2,120 Slippages (%)  1.23% 0.85% 1.38%  1.24%  1.14% 0.52% 1.09% O/s Restructured book  42,570  43,680  42,110  48,070  49,000  60,790  62,890 Addition in the qtr  3,680  7,910  6,860  10,310  6,700  11,150 4,800 % of loan book  2.37% 2.22% 2.13%  2.41%  2.37% 2.64%  2.73% Source: Company Data, PL Research  Opex leverage still available with the Bank, but have balance for right avenues to cut cost
  • 6.     July 23, 2014  6   Axis Bank  Exhibit 8: GNPAs inch up on slippages from mid‐corporate but well within guidance  0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 % of Gross NPAs % of Net NPAs   Source: Company Data, PL Research  Exhibit 9: Improvement in AAA rating by 1bps but increase in <BBB rating by 2bps  6% 8% 6% 7% 7% 9% 12% 11% 11% 11% 23% 19% 18% 16% 16% 16% 14% 15% 14% 15% 41% 40% 40% 39% 38% 37% 37% 36% 37% 35% 27% 30% 33% 34% 34% 32% 31% 32% 31% 30% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 AAA AA A BBB <BBB or unrated   Source: Company Data, PL Research  Exhibit 10: Some rating downgrade at lower level in SME 4‐7 ratings  5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 18% 18% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 16% 57% 57% 59% 56% 58% 58% 58% 58% 58% 56% 12% 12% 10% 10% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 14% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 SME 1 SME 2 SME 3 SME 4 SME 5‐7   Source: Company Data, PL Research 
  • 7.     July 23, 2014  7   Axis Bank  Exhibit 11: Qtrly ROE tree – ROAs impacted mainly from slowdown in fees/assets  ROA Tree  4Q13 1Q14  2Q14  3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Net Interest Income/Assets  3.23% 3.42%  3.45%  3.36% 3.41% 3.47% Fees/Assets  2.15% 1.60%  2.07%  1.81% 2.15% 1.50% Investment profits/Assets  0.29% 0.52%  0.01%  0.04% 0.23% 0.27% Net revenues/Assets  5.67% 5.54%  5.52%  5.21% 5.79% 5.25% Operating Expense/Assets  ‐2.27% ‐2.15%  ‐2.29%  ‐2.27% ‐2.30% ‐2.21% Provisions/Assets  ‐0.72% ‐0.85%  ‐0.81%  ‐0.23% ‐0.54% ‐0.41% Taxes/Assets  ‐0.79% ‐0.86%  ‐0.82%  ‐0.91% ‐0.97% ‐0.88% Total Costs/Assets  ‐3.78% ‐3.86%  ‐3.92%  ‐3.40% ‐3.81% ‐3.50% ROA  1.89% 1.68%  1.60%  1.81% 1.98% 1.75% Equity/Assets  9.00% 10.14%  10.44%  10.39% 10.22% 10.26% ROE  20.96% 16.56%  15.31%  17.37% 19.43% 17.04% Source: Company Data, PL Research  Exhibit 12: Raise Mar‐15 PT to Rs2200/share valued implied at 2x FY16 ABV  Risk free rate  8.0% Equity Risk Premium  6.0% Beta  1.20 Cost of Equity  15.2% Terminal growth  5.0% Normalised ROE  21.1% Stage 2 growth  19.0% Mar‐15 PT  2200 Implied Mar‐16 P/B  2.02 Implied Mar‐16 P/E  12.0 Source: Company Data, PL Research  Exhibit 13: Valuations still have significant upside on historical basis  0.50  1.50  2.50  3.50  4.50  Jul‐05 Jan‐06 Jul‐06 Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08 Jan‐09 Jul‐09 Jan‐10 Jul‐10 Jan‐11 Jul‐11 Jan‐12 Jul‐12 Jan‐13 Jul‐13 Jan‐14 Jul‐14   Source: Company Data, PL Research     
  • 8.     July 23, 2014  8   Axis Bank  Income Statement (Rs m)  Y/e March   2013  2014  2015E 2016E Int. Earned from Adv.  191,662  219,504  257,039 295,076 Int. Earned from Invt.  77,470  83,431  89,228 103,291 Others  2,694  3,476  3,838 4,272 Total Interest Income  271,826  306,412  350,105 402,638 Interest expense  175,163  186,895  213,967 244,900 NII  96,663  119,516  136,138 157,739      Growth (%)  20.6  23.6  13.9 15.9 Treasury Income  5,818  3,133  6,000 6,000 NTNII  59,693  70,919  80,890 93,520 Non Interest Income  65,511  74,052  86,890 99,520 Total Income  337,337  380,464  436,995 502,159      Growth (%)  23.0  12.8  14.9 14.9 Operating Expense  69,142  79,008  90,125 103,323 Operating Profit  93,031  114,561  132,904 153,935      Growth (%)  25.2  23.1  16.0 15.8 NPA Provisions  14,799  17,810  27,398 27,066 Investment Provisions  (1,039)  (1,003)  — — Total Provisions  17,501  21,070  27,398 27,066 PBT  75,531  93,490  105,505 126,869 Tax Provisions  23,736  31,313  34,817 41,867      Effective Tax Rate (%)  31.4  33.5  33.0 33.0 PAT  51,794  62,177  70,688 85,002      Growth (%)  22.1  20.0  13.7 20.2   Balance Sheet (Rs m)  Y/e March        2013  2014  2015E 2016E Par Value  10  10  10 10 No. of equity shares  468  470  470 470 Equity  4,680  4,698  4,698 4,698 Networth   331,079  382,205  440,250 510,712 Adj. Networth  324,037  371,959  424,297 489,878 Deposits  2,526,136  2,809,446  3,278,077 3,951,677      Growth (%)  14.8  11.2  16.7 20.5 Low Cost deposits  1,120,998  1,264,623  1,490,321 1,814,344      % of total deposits  44.4  45.0  45.5 45.9 Total Liabilities  3,405,607  3,832,449  4,582,717 5,456,212 Net Advances  1,969,660  2,300,668  2,691,781 3,230,137      Growth (%)  16.0  16.8  17.0 20.0 Investments  1,137,375  1,135,484  1,290,492 1,508,690 Total Assets  3,405,607  3,832,449  4,582,717 5,456,212 Source: Company Data, PL Research.      Quarterly Financials (Rs m)  Y/e March       Q2FY14  Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Interest Income  76,090  77,891 79,652 82,894 Interest Expense  46,723  48,051 47,995 49,789 Net Interest Income  29,367  29,840 31,658 33,105 Non Interest Income  17,661  16,444 22,134 16,911      CEB  14,320  14,560 17,800 13,780      Treasury  50  350 2,170 2,600 Net Total Income  47,028  46,284 53,792 50,015 Operating Expenses  19,530  20,134 21,314 21,059      Employee Expenses  6,439  6,551 6,593 7,517      Other Expenses  13,090  13,583 14,722 13,541 Operating Profit  27,498  26,150 32,477 28,957 Core Operating Profit  27,448  25,800 30,307 26,357 Provisions  6,875  2,025 5,052 3,866      Loan loss provisions  —  — — —      Investment Depreciation  —  — — — Profit before tax  20,623  24,125 27,425 25,091 Tax  7,000  8,084 9,002 8,423 PAT before EO  13,623  16,041 18,423 16,668 Extraordinary item  —  — — — PAT  13,623  16,041 18,423 16,668   Key Ratios  Y/e March     2013  2014 2015E 2016E CMP (Rs)  2,016  2,016 2,016 2,016 Equity Shrs. Os. (m)  468  470 470 470 Market Cap (Rs m)  943,537  947,348 947,348 947,348      M/Cap to AUM (%)  27.7  24.7 20.7 17.4 EPS (Rs)  110.7  132.3 150.5 180.9 Book Value (Rs)  708  813 937 1,087 Adj. BV (75%) (Rs)  708  812 934 1,083 P/E (x)  18.2  15.2 13.4 11.1 P/BV (x)  2.8  2.5 2.2 1.9 P/ABV (x)  2.8  2.5 2.2 1.9 DPS (Rs)  18.0  20.0 23.0 26.5      Dividend Yield (%)  0.9  1.0 1.1 1.3   Profitability (%)  Y/e March       2013  2014 2015E 2016E NIM  3.1  3.3 3.2 3.1 RoAA  1.7  1.7 1.7 1.7 RoAE  18.5  17.4 17.2 17.9   Efficiency  Y/e March       2013  2014 2015E 2016E Cost‐Income Ratio (%)  42.6  40.8 40.4 40.2 C‐D Ratio (%)  78.0  81.9 82.1 81.7 Business per Emp. (Rs m)  129  127 129 135 Profit per Emp. (Rs lacs)  14.8  15.5 15.3 16.0 Business per Branch (Rs m)  2,435  2,407 2,445 2,558 Profit per Branch (Rs m)  28  29 29 30   Asset Quality  Y/e March      2013  2014 2015E 2016E Gross NPAs (Rs m)  23,934  31,460 48,982 63,968 Net NPAs (Rs m)  7,041  10,246 15,953 20,834 Gr. NPAs to Gross Adv. (%)  1.2  1.4 1.8 2.0 Net NPAs to Net Adv. (%)  0.4  0.4 0.6 0.6 NPA Coverage (%)  70.6  67.4 67.4 67.4 Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
  • 9.     July 23, 2014  9   Axis Bank                                                                                                Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.  3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India  Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209  Rating Distribution of Research Coverage    29.0% 51.4% 19.6% 0.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell % of Total Coverage   PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature      BUY   :  Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months  Accumulate  :  Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months  Reduce  :  Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months  Sell  :  Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months  Trading Buy  :  Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month  Trading Sell  :  Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month  Not Rated (NR)  :  No specific call on the stock  Under Review (UR)  :  Rating likely to change shortly  This  document  has  been  prepared  by  the  Research  Division  of  Prabhudas  Lilladher  Pvt.  Ltd.  Mumbai,  India  (PL)  and  is  meant  for  use  by  the  recipient  only  as  information and is not for circulation.  This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be  considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.  The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy  or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information,  statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.  Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The  suitability  or  otherwise  of  any  investments  will  depend  upon  the  recipient's  particular  circumstances  and,  in  case  of  doubt,  advice  should  be  sought  from  an  independent expert/advisor.  Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or  engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication.  We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.