Video and slides synchronized, mp3 and slide download available at URL http://bit.ly/19tYCtB. Giff Constable shares 4 tactics for thinking holistically about an idea and clearly identifying, prioritizing and tackling assumptions.Filmed at qconnewyork.com. Giff Constable is a Managing Director for Neo's New York City practice. He is an early-stage specialist with 17 years of startup experience and a cross-functional skill set. Giff has built and marketed consumer applications, games, and enterprise software, and has created digital experiences for many of the biggest companies in the world.

1. The Assassin’s Mindset
Identifying Assumptions to De-Risk Your Idea
Giff Constable
MD, Neo NYC
@giffco
Creative Commons: Koen Muurling http://www.flickr.com/photos/koenmuurling/

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Watch the video with slide
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www.infoq.com/presentations/holys
tic-assumption

3. Presented at QCon New York
www.qconnewyork.com
Purpose of QCon
- to empower software development by facilitating the spread of
knowledge and innovation
Strategy
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change and innovation in your teams
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Highlights
- attended by more than 12,000 delegates since 2007
- held in 9 cities worldwide

4. Creative Commons: Paul VanDerWerf http://www.flickr.com/photos/pavdw/

5. Creative Commons: Gary Eyring on flickr http://www.flickr.com/photos/geyring/

6. Creative Commons: Wildlife Wanderer http://www.flickr.com/photos/wildlifewanderer/

7. Creative Commons: Smithsonian's National Zoo http://www.flickr.com/photos/nationalzoo/

8. Creative Commons: Hazel Owen http://www.flickr.com/photos/24289877@N02/

9. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
Case Study: Garden Center

10. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
My primary customer will be:
Homeowners with property
around the house

11. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
The problem / need my customer
wants to solve:
It is a headache to keep track of
paperwork for your property,
both logistics and creative ideas

12. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
My customer need can be solved
with this solution:
A mobile app that acts as a record
and inspiration keeper

13. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
The measurable outcome my
customer wants to achieve is:
50% less time hunting for
paperwork; more confidence they
will remember creative plans

14. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
My primary customer acquisition
tactic will be:
Newsletter promotions for base;
SEM for newcomers

15. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
My earliest adopters will be:
Affluent suburban owners;
subscribers and website visitors

16. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
I will make money by:
Freemium model, with customers
paying to store images a la Flickr

17. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
My primary competition will be:
Pen and paper / kitchen drawer;
evernote and note taking apps

18. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
I will beat my competitors primarily
because of:
Offering a targeted solution;
value-added content

19. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
My biggest risk to financial viability
is:
Enough people will hit their free
limit and convert to paid before
we run out of funds

20. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
My biggest technical / engineering
risk is:
Compelling functionality, not
engineering risk

21. Assumptions
Customer Problem Solution
Customer
Outcome
Customer
Acquisition
Early Adopter
Business
Model
Competition Differentiator
Financial Risk Technical Risk ?

22. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
What assumptions, if proven wrong, would
cause this to fail?
• People will input data and photos
• We can provide instant gratification
• People will input enough to convert to paid
• Parent co will fund through breakeven
• SEM will be profitable within 12 mo
• Engagement will be frequent enough to stay
top of mind
• Enough people have the problem to make
market worthwhile

23. High Impact
low impact
KnownUnknown

24. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
Our scariest assumptions:
­ It is a headache to keep track of paperwork for
your property, both logistics and creative ideas
­ A targeted solution and value-added content is
enough of a competitive differentiator
­ Enough people will pay to store images
­ Parent co will fund through breakeven
­ SEM will be profitable within 12 mo
­ People will input data and photos

25. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
Experiments
&
Learning

26. Experiment
Design Studio

27. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
Qualitative Interviews
• Offered $25 gift card in email newsletter
• 900 people took pre-qualification survey
• picked best 30
• created interview guide
• hopped on the phone with a caller + note taker
giffconstable.com for tips on customer development interviews

28. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
Results
• Pain point was not top of mind
• Had to iterate our language to get interviewees
focused on right area
• Hearing a lot of the same answers after 12
people

29. Adwords
Landing Page Test: Funnel
Value test Price test Email test

33. Visits Initial Clicks Subscribe Learn More Email
143
30
75
40% 4% 5% 1%
60% 20%Goal:

34. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
Tips for Landing Page Tests
• Don’t optimize design for conversion, but
rather for learning
• Look at daily conversions and cross-check
against recruiting methods
• Use query strings to track specific ads and
segment out your team
http://example.com/home?id=101
• Make sure landing page performance is high

35. Creative Commons: Bruce Fingerhood http://www.flickr.com/photos/springfieldhomer/
DECISION: PIVOT

36. Three Charts
Creative Commons: Wildlife Wanderer http://www.flickr.com/photos/wildlifewanderer/

37. Pay Risk Down As You Go
Diagram concept: @clevergirl
Risk
Time

38. High Impact
low impact
KnownUnknown

39. Conversation
PaperTest
Prototype
LiveProduct
Fantasy
TruthofLearning

40. What We’ve Covered
• Think holistically about your idea
• Prioritize the risks
• Design and run experiments
• Filter against your vision and judgment
Creative Commons: Wildlife Wanderer http://www.flickr.com/photos/wildlifewanderer/

41. @giffco / giff@neo.com
Creative Commons: Koen Muurling http://www.flickr.com/photos/koenmuurling/

42. Watch the video with slide synchronization on
InfoQ.com!
www.infoq.com/presentations/holystic-
assumption