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International Summit
  of Cooperatives
   The retail coop’s guide
   to industry trends

   October 2012
Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
Six key trends will redefine the retail sector over the next decade
                               Retailers will provide a seamless multichannel customer
   The “all-channel”           experience and differentiate themselves by having a clear value
 1
   experience                  proposition

   Strategies and              Retailers will invest in advanced analytical capabilities to
 2 operations driven by        improve customer segmentation and strategic positioning
   big data

                               The consumer revolution currently underway will move power
 3 Power to the people         away from retailers


                               Growth will be strong and sustained in emerging markets, and
   Growth in emerging          these markets will represent a much larger share of the world’s
 4
   markets                     retail revenue

   Pressure on margins         Stagnant growth and a highly competitive environment will put
   and capital productivity    pressure on retailers’ margins and force them to cut costs
 5
   in developed
   economies
                               Retailers will face higher volatility of input costs and of the
 6 Volatility in input costs   economic and political environments in which they operate


                                                                                   McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                             | 1
                                                                     Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
Five key questions arise for cooperative retailers



 1 How can coops keep their physical store networks relevant?


 2 How can coops maintain an edge in customer satisfaction?


 3 How can coops use the internet and social media to improve member relations?


 4 How will coops grow?


 5 Are there opportunities for alliances among non-competing cooperatives?




                                                                      McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                | 2
                                                        Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
Contents




           Overview of key trends



           Detailed questions for coop retailers




                                                                 McKinsey & Company
                                                                                           | 3
                                                   Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
1 Customers will demand a seamless multichannel experience – the
     “all-channel” experience
                          Context                                   Implications
    The “all-channel”
1                         ▪ The online channel is growing and       ▪ The boundary between brick-and-
    experience
                            becoming increasingly important in        mortar and online stores is blurring
                            driving offline sales                     – Multichannel integration has the
  Strategies and            – In fact, consumers highly value the         potential to bridge the growing gap
2 operations driven by         ability to use multiple channels           between the physical and the
  big data                     throughout the shopping                    virtual world
                               experience                           ▪ Physical stores must differentiate
                          ▪ Retailers are adopting new                themselves by offering distinctive
                            technologies to support or work           value to customers
3 Power to the people
                            alongside store associates              ▪ Big-box stores, in particular, have
                            – For example: in-store kiosks,           an advantage in distribution
                               mobile devices, and tablets            compared to their smaller rivals,
    Growth in emerging    ▪ Many product and service                  including coops
4
    markets                 categories are moving more clearly
                            into the digital battleground, and
                            online research is rapidly becoming a
  Pressure on margins       key trigger in the customer journey
  and capital
5
  productivity in
                            – For example: clothing, footwear,
                               furniture, and home improvement
  developed economies
                               are moving into the digital
                               battleground
    Volatility in input
6
    costs


                                                                                            McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                      | 4
                                                                              Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
1 The online channel is growing and becoming                                                                                    Online sales
        increasingly important in driving offline sales                                                                          Online-influenced sales
                                                                                                                                 Offline sales not influenced
                                                                                                                                 by online presence


     Total US retail sales                                                                                                       CAGR 2006-2011
     USD Billions, percentage of total                                                                                           Percent

                                                                                                                  3.053                    +3
                                                                                          2.886       2.968
                                                                  2.728       2.806
                                           2.616       2.648                                            14          16                     +15
                               2.500                                             11         13
       2.370       2.407                     8           9         10
                     6           7
         6
        16            20         25          33          33          36          40         45          50          56                    +21



          78          74         68          59          58          54          49         42          36
                                                                                                                    28                      -5


        2006        2007       2008        2009        2010        2011       20121 20131 20141 20151

1 Assumes that online sales and online-influenced sales will increase at the rate of 15% per year and that total sales will increase at their historical rate
  of 3% per year

                                                                                                                                McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: Forrester; McKinsey analysis                                                                                                                      | 5
                                                                                                                  Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
1 Consumers highly value the ability to use multiple                                            Not important
      channels throughout the shopping experience                                                Somewhat important
                                                                                                 Important or extremely
                                                                                                 important

   Importance of multichannel functions among survey participants

   Percentage of respondents; N = 3,738          Percent using
                                                 service         Importance to those using service

   Check online to see if the store has
                                                            69    15          32                    54
   a certain item available

   Print coupons online, use them in a store                62    17              32                 51

   Buy online, but pick up in the store                43          23                  36               41

   Buy online and return the item to the store        29          14         24                   62

   Access enhanced online content for
                                                      28           23                  35               41
   product research, purchase in store
   Use an online website to customize
                                                 15                     41                  27            32
   the products they buy

   Book in-store appointments online             11                     38                  33             29


                                                                                                                100%

                                                                                            McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: iConsumer 2011 - RT16bb                                                                                       | 6
                                                                              Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
1 Retailers are adopting technologies ranging from in-store kiosks to
       mobile devices and tablets for store associates

   In-store kiosks for consumers to order              Mobile devices and tablets for store associates to
   items or sizes online when not available            access customer purchase history, create outfits,
   in the store                                        checkout, etc.




                                                       Quick Response code tags that consumers can scan to
                                                       obtain more product information




                                                                                                 McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: CBRE Econometric Advisors; Internet Retailer                                                                       | 7
                                                                                   Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
1 Many product and service categories are moving more clearly into the
          digital battleground, and online research is rapidly gaining in importance
                                                                                                                                                     2010
 Research online                                                                                                                                     2009
 Percentage of respondents
 75
 70
                                                                         Moved
 65                                                                      to digital                            Computer
                                                                                                   Electronics hardware/
 60
                                                                                                               software
 55
 50
                                                                                              Videogames
 45                                                       Furniture
 40                                  Home
                                     improvement
 35
 30          Still in                  Home                                                              Books
             stores                    decor
 25                                                                                        DVD/videos
                                                         Footwear
 20
                                                 Office supplies Clothing
 15                             HBA
                        Household                                                     Digital
 10                     products                                                      battleground
  5                 Grocery
  0
      0       5         10      15       20       25       30       35        40      45          50    55        60       65       70       75         80
                                                                                                                               Purchased online1
1 As a percentage of those who bought a product in the respective category in the past 6 months                          Percentage of respondents

                                                                                                                           McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: iConsumer                                                                                                                                     | 8
                                                                                                             Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
1     As a result, the boundary between brick-and-mortar and online stores
       is blurring
     Tesco’s virtual store in Korean subway                       Adidas’ virtual footwear wall




     ▪ In August 2011, Tesco started testing a virtual store in   ▪ In collaboration with Intel, Adidas developed adiVerse,
       the subway in Seoul, South Korea. Commuters can              a virtual footwear wall
       shop on the go using their smartphones                       – Customers can access expanded online inventory
       – Using Tesco’s local Homeplus banner app,                   – They can view each item in 3D and rotate it to any
          commuters can scan barcodes of 500+ popular                   angle, zoom it, get more product information (price,
          products, and the app will automatically order them           customer reviews, etc.), and make a purchase
       – Orders placed before 1 pm are delivered to homes           –   Built-in anonymous video analytics provide metrics
          the same evening                                              on shopper trends and shopping patterns, enabling
                                                                        Adidas to provide a more personalized experience

                                                                                                            McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: Press search                                                                                                                  | 9
                                                                                              Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
2 Retailers will invest in advanced analytical capabilities to identify and
     capture value
                          Context                                     Implications
  The “all-channel”
1                         ▪ During the next decade, businesses        ▪ Consumers now seek specific,
  experience
                            will leverage the growth of available       tailored items that online retailers
                            data and computational capacity to          have the ability to deliver
                            inform strategy and influence               – Customers are increasingly
  Strategies and            operations                                      expecting such low-volume niche
2 operations driven by      – Data is available for analysis in all         products
  big data                      key functions, such as                  – The long tail of the product mix is
                                merchandising, marketing, supply            becoming more accessible to
                                chain, and human resources                  retailers
3 Power to the people       – Some retailers have already used        ▪ Demand for deep analytical talent
                                big data to create a significant        in the United States could exceed
                                competitive advantage for               supply by ~50% in the next few
                                themselves; for example, Tesco          years
    Growth in emerging          leverages shopper and loyalty
4                               data to better target, market, and      – The market has a general
    markets
                                price products                              shortage of qualified statisticians
                                                                            and data analysts
  Pressure on margins
  and capital
5
  productivity in
  developed economies


    Volatility in input
6
    costs


                                                                                              McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                        | 10
                                                                                Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
2 During the next decade, businesses will leverage the explosive growth
        of available data and of computational capacity

  Data generated worldwide                                                          Computational capacity of the world’s fastest computers
  Exabytes (= 1 billion gigabytes)                                                  FLOPS,1 2 log scale
                                                                    35,000             16
          All the information stored inside the
          US Library of Congress amounts to                                         1E+19          Today’s fastest computers are
                    < 0.00025 exabytes                                              1E+17          more than 10 trillion times
                                                                                    1E+15          faster than those of 1960
                                                                                    1E+13
                                                                                    1E+11
                                                     7,900                           1E+9
                                         1,300                                       1E+7
         50             110
                                                                                     1E+5
       2000            2005              2010        2015            2020               1960           1970        1980        1990       2000        2010


           Available data will be characterized by its scale, distribution, diversity, and timeliness

           ▪ Scale: data sets will be massive, > 1 multipetabyte (1 million gigabytes) in size, and built to be easily
               scaled up
           ▪ Distribution: data will come from and be distributed both within and outside the organization
           ▪ Diversity: data will be semi-structured, unstructured, or a combination of different types
           ▪ Timeliness: data will be captured and analyzed in real time, allowing for immediate response

1 Floating-point operations per second
2 Rmax FLOPS

SOURCE: IDC Digital universe study 2011 and 2010; Hilbert and López, “The world’s technological capacity to store, communicate,     McKinsey & Company
     and compute information,” Science, 2011; www.vetta.org; McKinsey analysis; McKinsey Global Institute
                                                                                                                                                              | 11
                                                                                                                      Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
2 Consumers now seek specific, tailored items that online retailers have
              the ability to deliver


                Mass                   The long tail: low-volume     The long tail of the product mix is
                products               niche products                becoming more accessible
                                                                     ▪   The long tail refers to the large
                                                                         portion of products that have
                                                                         little mass appeal
                                                                     ▪   The reduced overhead costs of
                                                                         online retailers allow them to carry
                                                                         more niche products than
                                                                         traditional stores
 Popularity




                                                                         – Amazon.com currently offers
                                                                              a selection of more than 35
                                                                              million books, whereas brick-
                                                                              and-mortar stores are limited
                                                                              to ~100,000 books
                                                                     ▪   Consequently, customers are
                                                                         increasingly expecting that
                                                                         products on the long tail will be
                                                                         available and are demanding such
                                                                         products
                                                          Products



                                                                                               McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                         | 12
                                                                                 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
2 In the next few years, demand for deep analytical talent in the United
        States could exceed supply by ~50%

        Supply and demand of deep analytical talent by 2018
        Thousands of people
                                                                                                         140-190                  440-490



                                        180                     30
                                                                                      300

                                                                                                      ~50% gap
                 150                                                                                  relative to
                                                                                                         2018
                                                                                                        supply


            2008       Graduates                          Other1                 2018                   Talent                    2018
            employment with deep                                                 supply                 gap                       projected
                       analytical                                                                                                 demand
                       talent

1 Other supply drivers include attrition (-), immigration (+), and reemploying previously unemployed deep analytical talent (+)

                                                                                                                       McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; US Census; Dun & Bradstreet; interviews; McKinsey Global Institute analysis                               | 13
                                                                                                         Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
3 The retail sector is undergoing a consumer revolution that will move
     power away from retailers
                           Context                                    Implications
   The “all-channel”
 1
   experience              ▪ Consumers are gaining in                 ▪ Consumers are leveraging the
                             bargaining power as they                   capabilities of their smartphones to
                             increasingly visit retailers’ websites     get product information and
   Strategies and            before making purchases                    shopping aid on the go – for
 2 operations driven by    ▪ Consumers increasingly trust and           example, using smartphones to scan
   big data                  use social media and community             barcodes in brick-and-mortar stores,
                             input such as other users on retail        consumers instantly receive relevant
                             websites, site-generated                   information
                             recommendations, and user-               ▪ Transparency of information
 3 Power to the people       generated product reviews                  creates purer competition, which
                           ▪ Mobile research puts information           means retailers must explore
                             on product features                        capabilities to respond with more
                             and prices at consumers’                   agility and create distinctive
     Growth in emerging      fingertips, even within stores             offerings that competitors are unable
 4                                                                      to match
     markets


   Pressure on margins
   and capital
 5
   productivity in
   developed economies


     Volatility in input
 6
     costs


                                                                                           McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                     | 14
                                                                             Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
US EXAMPLE
 3 Consumers are gaining in bargaining power as they
       increasingly visit retailers’ websites before making purchases

   Consumers visiting a retailer’s website before purchasing in its store
   Percent
                                                  2009                            2010                           Difference
      Electronics (e.g., TV, digital
                                                                    49                                 67               18
      camera, gaming console)

      Footwear                                                 32                            44                       12

      Office supplies                                     20                                 41                           21

      Books                                               19                                       58                            39

      Clothing (not
                                                         14                                 35                            21
      including footwear)

      Health and beauty products                      9                                     38                               29

      Grocery (e.g., food)                           6                                      34                              27


                                                                                                                McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: iConsumer retail survey, November 2010; US Internet users aged 13 years and older                                                 | 15
                                                                                                  Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
3 Today, consumers increasingly trust and use social media and
       community input

     Recommendations that consumers trust                             Consumer recommendation rate
     Consumers that trust, or somewhat trust, reviews1                Consumers leaving comments or
     Percent, N = 3,738                                               recommendations1
                                                                      Percent, N > 3,7382
     Other users on
                                                                 57                       21                20
     retail websites
                                                                           18
     Site-generated
                                                            47
     recommendations

     User-generated
                                                       42
     product reviews

     Recommendations
                                                      37
     generated from SNS3


     User-generated videos                       31
                                                                         2009           2010              2011

1 As a share of all respondents
2 N = 3,738 (2011), 3,970 (2010), 4,168 (2009)
3 Social networking service

                                                                                              McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: iConsumer 2011 – RT9L, RT9K                                                                                     | 16
                                                                                Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
3 Because mobile research puts information on product features
      and prices at consumers’ fingertips, even within stores…                                   US EXAMPLE




   Place of mobile research                 Mobile activity penetration

   Percentage of respondents using          Share of population in any category           2010            2011
   mobile research, N = 853 (2011)          N = 375 (2011)
                                                                                                 28
                                            Visited same store website
                                                                                                           43
    At home                            78                                                            32
                                            Visited different store website                               40
                                                                                                       37
                                            Used price comparison app
                                                                                                        38
                                                                                                     33
    In store                 44             Texted
                                                                                                26
                                                                                          17
                                            Used mobile coupon
                                                                                               25
                            Increase                                                    15
                            from 33%        Scanned barcode                              17
    Other                26 in 2010
                                                                                          18
                                            Took photo of product
                                                                                         16




                                                                                     McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: iConsumer 2011                                                                                         | 17
                                                                       Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
3 …consumers are leveraging the capabilities of their smartphones to
       get product information and shopping aid on the go

        Mobile devices are enabling consumers to       Consumers are leveraging mobile tools to
        compare prices when they are in stores         support offline shopping

                                                       ▪ Apps such as
                                                         GroceryIQ help
                                                         consumers organize
                               RedLaser                  shopping lists and
        ▪ Using smartphones to scan barcodes in          prioritize needs
           brick-and-mortar stores, consumers          ▪ Barcode scanning
           instantly receive relevant information        allows users to quickly
        ▪ Consumers can compare online and offline       add items they are
           inventory, pricing, and time-to-delivery/     running out of or
           distance                                      remove items
                                                         purchased from lists




                                                                                           McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: Gartner; press searches; RedLaser; GroceryIQ                                                                 | 18
                                                                             Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
4 Growth will be strong and sustained in emerging markets, which will
     represent a much larger share of the world’s retail revenue
                           Context                                  Implications
   The “all-channel”
 1                         ▪ Emerging markets will continue to      ▪ More than half of the growth in
   experience
                             drive retail growth in the next          global retail revenue will come
                             decade                                   from emerging markets during the
                             – While retail markets are               next decade
   Strategies and
 2 operations driven by         stagnating or growing very slowly     – China and other emerging
   big data                     in most developed countries,              markets will account for 31% of
                                emerging markets are showing              the world’s retail sales in 2020, up
                                growth in excess of 5% per                from 25% in 2010
                                annum                                 – Emerging markets will account for
 3 Power to the people
                             – The fastest growth will be in              more than half of the absolute
                                Southeast Asia                            growth in retail sales worldwide in
                           ▪ Emerging markets will add more               the next decade
                             than 160 million middle-class
   Growth in emerging        households by 2020
 4
   markets
                             – GDP growth will be twice as fast
                                in emerging countries as in
                                developed economies
   Pressure on margins
   and capital               – The growing middle class will
 5
   productivity in              rapidly drive up internal
   developed economies          consumption


     Volatility in input
 6
     costs


                                                                                          McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                    | 19
                                                                            Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
4 Emerging markets will continue to drive retail growth in the next
       decade
       Real retail revenue CAGR for 2011-2020, by country, percent       0              3.5-4.0         > 5.0
                                                                         0-3.5          4.0-5.0         No data



                                                                                     ▪ All the fast-
                                                                                        growing retail
                                                                                        markets are in
                                                                                        the emerging
                                                                                        world
                                                                                     ▪ In particular,
                                                                                        most Southeast
                                                                                        Asian countries
                                                                                        will experience
                                                                                        phenomenal
                                                                                        growth of over
                                                                                        5% per year
                                                                                        during the next
                                                                                        decade
                                                                                     ▪ Most developed
                                                                                        markets will
                                                                                        experience
                                                                                        relatively
                                                                                        sluggish growth




                                                                                   McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: Global Insights World Industry Service                                                               | 20
                                                                     Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
4 Emerging markets will grow more than twice as fast                                                        Emerging countries

       as developed economies and add more than                                                              Developed countries

       160 million middle-class households by 2020
                                                Equivalent
                                                annual real
         Evolution of world real GDP            growth from     Evolution of households income
         by region                              2010 to 2020    distribution in emerging markets1
         Real 2005 USD Trillions                Percent         Millions of households

                                                                                                      ▪ There will be more
                           19.3          70.5                                           1,206            than 160 million
                           11.1                                                1,085                     new middle-class
                                                                Household
                                                                                         306             households in
                                         26.2          5.7%     income         139
             51.2           8.2                                                                          emerging
                                                                ≥ USD 25,000
                                                                                                         countries, which is
             15.1                                                                                        more than the
                                                                                                         current total
                                                                                                         number of house-
                                                                Household
                                                                                                         holds in the US
                                                                income         945       900
                                         44.3          2.1%     < USD 25,000                          ▪ This rising middle
             36.1                                                                                        class will rapidly
                                                                                                         drive up internal
                                                                                                         consumption

           2010         2010-2020 2020                                         2011     2020
                        growth

Note: Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding
1 Income categories defined per annual income in USD PPP

                                                                                                       McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: IHS Global Insight; Global Insight; McKinsey analysis                                                                    | 21
                                                                                         Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
4 As a result, more than half of the growth in global retail revenue will
       come from emerging markets during the next decade


     Retail total sales                                             Origin of the absolute change in retail sales
     USD Trillions, 2010-2020                                       Percent, 2010-2020
     Percent
                 100% =     3.2                          4.2                                            China
     China                   3                            5                   US                      12
      Other emerging                 22                                            23
                                                         26

      Other developed1               16
                                                         15

      Western Europe                 31                             Western 12
                                                         26         Europe                                       40
                                                                                                                       Other
                                                                                                                       emerging
                                                                                    12
      US                             28                  27               Other
                                                                          developed
                                   2010                 2020



1 Includes Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea

                                                                                                       McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: Global Insights World Industry Service                                                                                   | 22
                                                                                         Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
5 Stagnant growth and a highly competitive environment will put
        pressure on retailers’ margins and force them to cut costs
                                   Context                                      Implications
      The “all-channel”
    1
      experience                   ▪ To achieve significant cost                ▪ Since the crisis, retailers are
                                     savings, retailers are turning to            moving toward smaller store
                                     technology such as mobile points of          formats, with major retailers reducing
      Strategies and                 sale, electronic shelf labels, and           their average store sizes by up to
    2 operations driven by           planograms, all of which can reduce          50% in some cases
      big data                       costs while improving the customer         ▪ Some retailers are experimenting with
                                     experience or increasing flexibility for     store formats
                                     retailers
                                                                                  – Smallbox stores are used to
                                   ▪ Retail operations are transformed                expand in urban areas where
    3 Power to the people            through massive improvements in                  larger footprints are difficult or
                                     the handling and tracking of goods               expensive to install
                                     by both retailers and consumers
                                                                                  – Online supporter locations and
                                     – Retailers can improve their                    pop-ups allow retailers to add
        Growth in emerging               operational efficiency by using
    4                                                                                 capacity quickly while using
        markets                          RFID1 and similar signal                     alternative or temporary
                                         technologies                                 distribution channels
                                     – Embedding signal technology for            – Market research centres are
      Pressure on margins                all items in a retail store will
      and capital                                                                     used to test new formats and
    5                                    improve the customer experience              examine retail behaviours
      productivity in                    and avoid missed sales because
      developed economies                items can’t be located within the
                                         store (e.g., misplaced clothing
        Volatility in input              items at Bloomingdale’s)
    6
        costs


                                                                                                       McKinsey & Company
1 Radio frequency identification                                                                                                 | 23
                                                                                         Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
Low
5 To achieve significant cost savings, retailers are turning to                                          Medium
  technology                                                                                             High

Examples of new technologies with cost-saving potential
                                                                                             Cost-saving
Technology         Description                  Benefits                                     potential
Mobile points of   Handheld POS in the store    Breaks bottleneck at checkout at
sale               to supplement checkout       busiest times, in a cost-effective
                   stations                     way




Electronic         Programmable wireless        No manual price changes
shelf label        devices on store shelves     necessary, increased pricing
                                                flexibility




                   Software for product         Increased sales and profits, fewer
Planograms
                   placement on store shelves   stockouts, and decreased
                                                administrative and labour costs




                                                                                      McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                | 24
                                                                        Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
5 Retail operations are transformed through massive improvements in
      the handling and tracking of goods by both retailers and consumers
        Using RFID and similar signal technologies,       Embedding signal technology for all items in
        retailers can improve their operational           a retail store will improve the customer
        efficiency                                        experience




        ▪ Retailers can optimize inventory                ▪ Apparel retailers, where goods are easily
           management and automate the purchasing           misplaced, are using RFID to locate and count
           process using RFID to track all incoming and     goods in stores
           outgoing stock                                 ▪ Bloomingdale’s recently implemented RFID
        ▪ Walmart pioneered RFID in inventory, leading      tags for individual items, improving stock
           to an estimated ~USD 290 million in savings      accuracy and location for customers




                                                                                             McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: PCWorld; RFID Journal                                                                                          | 25
                                                                               Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
5 Since the crisis, retailers are moving away from large                                                                   2008
       store formats                                                                                                        2011


                     Average new store size                                               2011 vs. 2008
                     Thousands of square feet                                             Percent
                                                         49                                        -12
                                                        43
                                                                          134
                                                                                                    -3
                                                                         130

                                                                                  162
                                                                                                    -6
                                                                                152

                                                       33
                                                 16                                                -51

                                                                                  168
                                                                         131                       -22

                                                              68
                                                                                                   -17
                                                            56
                                                                                  166
                                                                   111                             -33



                                                                                                      McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: CBRE Econometric Advisors; Internet Retailer                                                                            | 26
                                                                                        Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
5 Retailers are experimenting with new and innovative store formats and
      concepts in test markets to address pressure on margins
    Emerging store Example
    format category companies            Selected examples
                                         ▪ Tesco and Walmart use smaller formats to expand into more
                                             urban markets where real estate is limited or at a premium
                                             – Tesco launched Fresh & Easy Express in November 2011,
                                                with stores one third the size of normal formats
     Smallbox
                                             – Walmart Express stores, launched in 2011, are already
                                                profitable and are being deployed in dense, as well as
                                                in smaller, markets


                                         ▪ Walmart temporarily opened pop-up stores during the 2011
                                             holiday season to direct consumer traffic to its website
     Online                              ▪   In-store goods used for display purposes for customers
     supporter                               to purchase items online
                                         ▪   Customers can access the website in the store through
                                             tablets and PCs to make purchases

                                         ▪ Nordstrom launched Treasure & Bond in August 2011 and
                                             currently has one location in Manhattan
     Market                              ▪ The store is much smaller than traditional Nordstrom stores
     research                                and offers different products
     centres                             ▪   The store is used to gain market insights on the shopping
                                             habits of the population. Profits from the store are donated
                                             to local charities



                                                                                                           McKinsey & Company
SOURCE: Reuters; Los Angeles Times; New York Times                                                                                   | 27
                                                                                             Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
6 Retailers will face higher volatility from their input costs and from the
     economic and political environments in which they operate
                          Context                                    Implications
  The “all-channel”
1
  experience              ▪ Recent spikes in food prices reflect     ▪ Retailers now must understand the
                            the volatility of costs that retailers     risks to which they are exposed
                            face                                     ▪ Cooperatives are equally exposed
  Strategies and            – The food price spike and                 to many of these risks as their
2 operations driven by          economic downturn reversed a           traditional competitors
  big data                      historical trend of decreasing
                                poverty and hunger prior to 2008,    ▪ Retailers must take action to mitigate
                                with 925 million still hungry in       these risks, including ensuring that
                                2010                                   they have suitable risk
3 Power to the people                                                  measurement and management
                          ▪ Some factors that contributed to the       capabilities, especially in
                            crises are still relevant, for example     – Finance
                            – Slowing growth in agricultural           – Contracting
                                production
    Growth in emerging                                                 – Operations
4                           – Population growth and rising meat
    markets                                                            – Strategy
                                consumption
                            – Mandates incentivizing biofuel
  Pressure on margins           production
  and capital               – Rising crude oil price
5
  productivity in           – Adverse weather
  developed economies       – Export restrictions
                            – Civil strife

    Volatility in input
6
    costs


                                                                                              McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                        | 28
                                                                                Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
6 Recent spikes in food prices reflect the volatility of costs that retailers
       must face
Food price index
2003-2004 = 100

 240                                       The food price spike and                                                            Factors that
                                           economic downturn                                                                   contributed to the
                                           reversed a historical trend                                                         crises and that are
 200                                       of decreasing poverty and                                                           still relevant
                                           hunger prior to 2008, with                                                          ▪   Slowing growth in
                                           925 million still hungry                                                                agricultural
 160                                       by 2010                                                                                 production
                                                                                                                               ▪   Population growth
                                                                                                                                   and rising meat
 120                                                                                                                               consumption
                                                                                                                               ▪   Mandates
                                                                                                                                   incentivizing
  80
                                                                                                                                   biofuel production
                                           2nd peak in February 2011
                                           pushed > 45 million
                                                                                                                               ▪   Rising crude oil
  40                                                                                                                               price
                                           people into extreme
                                           poverty                                                                             ▪   Adverse weather
                                                                                                                               ▪   Export restrictions
   0
       90                      95                       00                        05                       10                  ▪   Civil strife


SOURCE:     Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations food-price index; Ronald Trostle, US Department
                                                                                                                                  McKinsey & Company
            of Agriculture; Peter Timmer, Agriculture and Pro-Poor Growth: An Asian Perspective, Centre for                                                 | 29
            Global Development Working Paper No. 63, July 2005; World Bank                                          Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
To mitigate risks associated with high volatility, retailers can use a variety
of levers beyond traditional financial instruments

                                                                           Strategic
                                                                           ▪   Integrate vertically
                                                 Operational/                  to balance buy-
                                                 merchandising                 side/sell-side
                                                 ▪ Develop alternative     ▪   Develop
                                                   product                     partnerships
                            Contracting (sales     formulations/
                            and purchasing)                                ▪   Invest in pure
                                                   wider specifications        plays or counter-
                            ▪ Align purchasing   ▪ Redesign products           cyclical
                              and sales
   Financial                                     ▪ Use substitutes             businesses
                              contracts in
   ▪ Leverage traditional     timing/terms       ▪ Optimize pack size/
     financial                                     price/quality across
     instruments            ▪ Use escalator
                              clauses and/or       channels/
   ▪ Seek structured          formula pricing      geography
     products                                    ▪ Optimize go-to-
                                                   market strategies
                                                 ▪ Optimize trade
                                                   spend/marketing
                                                   dollars

                                                                               McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                         | 30
                                                                 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
Contents




           Overview of key trends



           Detailed questions for coop retailers




                                                                 McKinsey & Company
                                                                                           | 31
                                                   Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
1 How can coops keep their physical store networks relevant?

Context                    Questions to ponder
▪ The advent of               How can the geographical proximity of your physical network still give you a
  e-commerce makes            significant advantage as social and business interactions go virtual? How can you build
  consumers less            A
                              stronger relationships with your customers and the communities you serve to improve loyalty?
  likely to visit brick-      How can the physical network differentiate your offer and better engage your members?
  and-mortar stores
                              How can you provide a distinct and significant reason for the customer to enter your
▪ Physical networks           physical store (e.g., expertise or convenience)? How can you maximize your multichannel
  of stores have            B
                              strategy to provide interaction between online, mobile, and your physical network of retail
  become less
                              stores?
  central to the
  customer
  relationship                Should the role of the network evolve to preserve the traditional advantage of
                              geographical proximity while remaining profitable? How can your network be made less
                            C
▪ Coops are dispro-           costly? How can you leverage your network by adding new services needed by your
  portionately                members? Which new member needs are you best able to serve?
  affected because of
  their unusually             How can you use local knowledge and managers’ entrepreneurial nature to optimize
  large network               store formats offered in different communities? How much flexibility should store
                            D managers and local staff have to experiment with store formats based on their knowledge of
▪ The links to the            the local market? How can you effectively disseminate the information on optimal formats
  community on                throughout your network?
  which coops have
  historically relied
                              How can you make product offering a point of differentiation through physical stores?
  are disappearing
                              How can you source more products locally, and will this please your customer base? How
                            E
                              can you use knowledge of local tastes and preferences to tailor offerings on a store-by-store
                              basis? What advantages do you have to tailor product assortment to local preferences?


                                                                                                      McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                                | 32
                                                                                        Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
2 How can coops maintain an edge in customer satisfaction?

Context                 Questions to ponder
▪ Historically, coop      What key elements do your customers truly care about and consider when deciding
  retailers tend to       where to shop? How are you stronger or weaker than your competitors on these dimensions?
                        A
  prioritize customer     What elements would be easiest to improve upon in your cooperative – and would they make a
  service                 significant difference?

▪ By leveraging           What investments could ensure that customers feel that there is something distinctly
  technology,             different about shopping in your cooperative? Do customers feel that their input is valued
  competition             and that they help shape the direction of your cooperative? For consumer coops, how much do
  integrates a multi-   B your members feel like owners? How can you create an atmosphere where consumers feel
  channel approach        more important than in your competitors’ stores? How can you play a leading role in protecting
  to satisfy              and promoting customer rights and interests (e.g., by ensuring the quality of all your products
  customers               meets certain standards, by always being transparent and fair in your offering to members)?

                          Where are competitors cutting or lacking in customer service? Where are there
▪ Thus, coops need      C opportunities for you to fill gaps your competitors leave and to attract consumers on that
  to redefine their
                          platform, while at the same time fulfilling your cooperative mission?
  customer
  experience to           What should be the general guiding strategy to improve customer satisfaction in an
  remain relevant         environment in which costs need to be cut and operations need to be more efficient?
  and competitive in    D To what extent can you improve customer service by harnessing technology, big data, and the
  the market              transformation to multichannel, while also controlling costs? Will you require more labour and
                          will the current workforce need more training, or will you need to have a leaner labour force?

                          Given the resources available, what specific investments and initiatives should you
                          prioritize to satisfy customer needs? How can you strike the appropriate balance between
                        E dimensions of service that are most feasible and economical and those that customers
                          appreciate the most, and between initiatives that will yield more tangible payoffs in the short
                          term and those that offer more delayed benefits?

                                                                                                     McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                               | 33
                                                                                       Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
3 How can coops use the internet and social media to improve member
  relations?
Context                 Questions to ponder
▪ Coops traditionally     How will the “virtualization” of business and social interactions affect cooperatives’
  relied on physical      traditional proximity advantage and how should your coop adjust? As customers spend
  presence to engage    A more time online and as attachment with their local communities is weakening, how will you still
  with members            be able to engage them via your branch network? What novel ways can you use to engage
                          members?
▪ Now, the internet
  and social media
  are connecting          How can you harness the power of new online media and the internet to deepen
  communities of all    B relationships with your customers and better understand their needs? How can you
  kinds                   engage customers online to know them better and to elicit their input?

▪ Increasingly,           How can you use new media and the internet to revitalize the democratic dimension of
  members are
                          your governance structure? How can you allow members to vote and engage in the
  expecting their
                        C democratic process over the internet? How can you leverage social media to energize an
  coop to connect
                          already open communication channel with members (e.g., let a special committee interact via
  with them virtually
                          social media)?


                          Should you review and redesign your organizational structure to better adapt to the
                          virtualization of interactions? Is your decentralized structure revolving around local branches
                        D
                          still optimal? Should you consider structures in which members interact directly with the broader
                          cooperative and not via their branch?




                                                                                                    McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                              | 34
                                                                                      Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
4 How will coops grow?

Context                Questions to ponder
▪ Growth plays a         How is growth essential to a cooperative’s business model, or how can it be successful
  different role in      without continued growth? How is continuous growth necessary (or not) for you to remain
                       A
  coops than in          relevant and to fulfill your mission to members? What are the implications of a no-growth
  traditional            business for your members?
  corporations
                         Should you look for growth opportunities outside your domestic market (e.g., emerging
▪ Today, some            markets)? How do your members stand to benefit from the growth in emerging markets? How
  markets are          B could your cooperative suffer competitively in its home market in the future if it does not expand
  saturated and some     abroad (e.g., through lack of scale)? How difficult would it be to seize growth opportunities in
  environments are       emerging markets?
  recessionary
                         How can you add new products or services to the retail offering? To what extent are there
▪ What will be the       growth opportunities through new products that would complement the current mix? How can
                       C
  next development       you add unrelated products in which your customers have gained an interest? How would such
  path for coops in      a move affect your image and position in your traditional market?
  that context?
                         How can your cooperative grow by filling some of the gaps left by the shrinking of the
                         welfare state? How can you leverage your brand, your physical network, and your financial
                       D resources to grow in some of the areas left unoccupied by the withdrawing welfare state? How
                         can your cooperative build the credibility and the capabilities to fill some of the gaps? How
                         would these new ventures benefit your members and affect your positioning?

                         Why should you focus (or not) on taking market shares from competitors in the
                         domestic market to fuel growth? How can you build a platform to gain market shares from
                       E the competition (e.g., better customer service)? How competitive is the landscape – are your
                         competitors likely to retaliate and attempt to attract your customer base, or is their attention
                         focused elsewhere?

                                                                                                     McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                               | 35
                                                                                       Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
5 Are there opportunities for alliances among non-competing
  cooperatives?

Context                  Questions to ponder
▪ Retail cooperatives        What are the most promising areas for collaboration with other non-competing
  face larger, more      A
                             cooperatives, both in retailing (in other regions) and in other sectors? How can you form
  powerful                   alliances to pool purchasing power or to develop private labels? How can you form a joint private
  competitors                label that would be more cost-effective and create a stronger brand? How can synergies be
                             exploited to optimize international supply chain logistics? How can you establish cooperative
▪ Larger competitors         academies to jointly train workers? How can you exploit M&A opportunities in core and adjacent
  enjoy economies            businesses (e.g., discount, pharma, travel)? How can you undertake joint ventures with other co-
  of scale that are          ops to tackle a new market or a new product?
  not attainable by
  coops
                         B How can you create a forum with other cooperatives to discuss the challenges you face,
▪ Alliances and joint      identify best practices, and educate policymakers? How could you work together to help
  ventures offer the       improve your public image and make policymakers more aware of the unique aspects of your
  potential to access      model? How can you initiate a benchmarking effort across cooperatives to identify and share
  the benefits of size     best practices?


                         C What are the main obstacles to collaboration and how can they be overcome? What has
                           prevented you from collaborating more with other cooperatives until now? What steps could
                           you take to overcome these obstacles? How favourable are your members to the possibility of
                           joining forces with other coops?


                         D What strategic next steps should leaders take in the short term to help foster
                           collaboration between cooperatives? Which non-competing cooperatives should you contact
                           to jointly explore possible avenues for collaboration?


                                                                                                      McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                                | 36
                                                                                        Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved

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Mc kinsey on cooperatives the retail coop's guide to industry trends

  • 1. International Summit of Cooperatives The retail coop’s guide to industry trends October 2012 Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 2. Six key trends will redefine the retail sector over the next decade Retailers will provide a seamless multichannel customer The “all-channel” experience and differentiate themselves by having a clear value 1 experience proposition Strategies and Retailers will invest in advanced analytical capabilities to 2 operations driven by improve customer segmentation and strategic positioning big data The consumer revolution currently underway will move power 3 Power to the people away from retailers Growth will be strong and sustained in emerging markets, and Growth in emerging these markets will represent a much larger share of the world’s 4 markets retail revenue Pressure on margins Stagnant growth and a highly competitive environment will put and capital productivity pressure on retailers’ margins and force them to cut costs 5 in developed economies Retailers will face higher volatility of input costs and of the 6 Volatility in input costs economic and political environments in which they operate McKinsey & Company | 1 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 3. Five key questions arise for cooperative retailers 1 How can coops keep their physical store networks relevant? 2 How can coops maintain an edge in customer satisfaction? 3 How can coops use the internet and social media to improve member relations? 4 How will coops grow? 5 Are there opportunities for alliances among non-competing cooperatives? McKinsey & Company | 2 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 4. Contents Overview of key trends Detailed questions for coop retailers McKinsey & Company | 3 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 5. 1 Customers will demand a seamless multichannel experience – the “all-channel” experience Context Implications The “all-channel” 1 ▪ The online channel is growing and ▪ The boundary between brick-and- experience becoming increasingly important in mortar and online stores is blurring driving offline sales – Multichannel integration has the Strategies and – In fact, consumers highly value the potential to bridge the growing gap 2 operations driven by ability to use multiple channels between the physical and the big data throughout the shopping virtual world experience ▪ Physical stores must differentiate ▪ Retailers are adopting new themselves by offering distinctive technologies to support or work value to customers 3 Power to the people alongside store associates ▪ Big-box stores, in particular, have – For example: in-store kiosks, an advantage in distribution mobile devices, and tablets compared to their smaller rivals, Growth in emerging ▪ Many product and service including coops 4 markets categories are moving more clearly into the digital battleground, and online research is rapidly becoming a Pressure on margins key trigger in the customer journey and capital 5 productivity in – For example: clothing, footwear, furniture, and home improvement developed economies are moving into the digital battleground Volatility in input 6 costs McKinsey & Company | 4 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 6. 1 The online channel is growing and becoming Online sales increasingly important in driving offline sales Online-influenced sales Offline sales not influenced by online presence Total US retail sales CAGR 2006-2011 USD Billions, percentage of total Percent 3.053 +3 2.886 2.968 2.728 2.806 2.616 2.648 14 16 +15 2.500 11 13 2.370 2.407 8 9 10 6 7 6 16 20 25 33 33 36 40 45 50 56 +21 78 74 68 59 58 54 49 42 36 28 -5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121 20131 20141 20151 1 Assumes that online sales and online-influenced sales will increase at the rate of 15% per year and that total sales will increase at their historical rate of 3% per year McKinsey & Company SOURCE: Forrester; McKinsey analysis | 5 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 7. 1 Consumers highly value the ability to use multiple Not important channels throughout the shopping experience Somewhat important Important or extremely important Importance of multichannel functions among survey participants Percentage of respondents; N = 3,738 Percent using service Importance to those using service Check online to see if the store has 69 15 32 54 a certain item available Print coupons online, use them in a store 62 17 32 51 Buy online, but pick up in the store 43 23 36 41 Buy online and return the item to the store 29 14 24 62 Access enhanced online content for 28 23 35 41 product research, purchase in store Use an online website to customize 15 41 27 32 the products they buy Book in-store appointments online 11 38 33 29 100% McKinsey & Company SOURCE: iConsumer 2011 - RT16bb | 6 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 8. 1 Retailers are adopting technologies ranging from in-store kiosks to mobile devices and tablets for store associates In-store kiosks for consumers to order Mobile devices and tablets for store associates to items or sizes online when not available access customer purchase history, create outfits, in the store checkout, etc. Quick Response code tags that consumers can scan to obtain more product information McKinsey & Company SOURCE: CBRE Econometric Advisors; Internet Retailer | 7 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 9. 1 Many product and service categories are moving more clearly into the digital battleground, and online research is rapidly gaining in importance 2010 Research online 2009 Percentage of respondents 75 70 Moved 65 to digital Computer Electronics hardware/ 60 software 55 50 Videogames 45 Furniture 40 Home improvement 35 30 Still in Home Books stores decor 25 DVD/videos Footwear 20 Office supplies Clothing 15 HBA Household Digital 10 products battleground 5 Grocery 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Purchased online1 1 As a percentage of those who bought a product in the respective category in the past 6 months Percentage of respondents McKinsey & Company SOURCE: iConsumer | 8 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 10. 1 As a result, the boundary between brick-and-mortar and online stores is blurring Tesco’s virtual store in Korean subway Adidas’ virtual footwear wall ▪ In August 2011, Tesco started testing a virtual store in ▪ In collaboration with Intel, Adidas developed adiVerse, the subway in Seoul, South Korea. Commuters can a virtual footwear wall shop on the go using their smartphones – Customers can access expanded online inventory – Using Tesco’s local Homeplus banner app, – They can view each item in 3D and rotate it to any commuters can scan barcodes of 500+ popular angle, zoom it, get more product information (price, products, and the app will automatically order them customer reviews, etc.), and make a purchase – Orders placed before 1 pm are delivered to homes – Built-in anonymous video analytics provide metrics the same evening on shopper trends and shopping patterns, enabling Adidas to provide a more personalized experience McKinsey & Company SOURCE: Press search | 9 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 11. 2 Retailers will invest in advanced analytical capabilities to identify and capture value Context Implications The “all-channel” 1 ▪ During the next decade, businesses ▪ Consumers now seek specific, experience will leverage the growth of available tailored items that online retailers data and computational capacity to have the ability to deliver inform strategy and influence – Customers are increasingly Strategies and operations expecting such low-volume niche 2 operations driven by – Data is available for analysis in all products big data key functions, such as – The long tail of the product mix is merchandising, marketing, supply becoming more accessible to chain, and human resources retailers 3 Power to the people – Some retailers have already used ▪ Demand for deep analytical talent big data to create a significant in the United States could exceed competitive advantage for supply by ~50% in the next few themselves; for example, Tesco years Growth in emerging leverages shopper and loyalty 4 data to better target, market, and – The market has a general markets price products shortage of qualified statisticians and data analysts Pressure on margins and capital 5 productivity in developed economies Volatility in input 6 costs McKinsey & Company | 10 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 12. 2 During the next decade, businesses will leverage the explosive growth of available data and of computational capacity Data generated worldwide Computational capacity of the world’s fastest computers Exabytes (= 1 billion gigabytes) FLOPS,1 2 log scale 35,000 16 All the information stored inside the US Library of Congress amounts to 1E+19 Today’s fastest computers are < 0.00025 exabytes 1E+17 more than 10 trillion times 1E+15 faster than those of 1960 1E+13 1E+11 7,900 1E+9 1,300 1E+7 50 110 1E+5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Available data will be characterized by its scale, distribution, diversity, and timeliness ▪ Scale: data sets will be massive, > 1 multipetabyte (1 million gigabytes) in size, and built to be easily scaled up ▪ Distribution: data will come from and be distributed both within and outside the organization ▪ Diversity: data will be semi-structured, unstructured, or a combination of different types ▪ Timeliness: data will be captured and analyzed in real time, allowing for immediate response 1 Floating-point operations per second 2 Rmax FLOPS SOURCE: IDC Digital universe study 2011 and 2010; Hilbert and López, “The world’s technological capacity to store, communicate, McKinsey & Company and compute information,” Science, 2011; www.vetta.org; McKinsey analysis; McKinsey Global Institute | 11 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 13. 2 Consumers now seek specific, tailored items that online retailers have the ability to deliver Mass The long tail: low-volume The long tail of the product mix is products niche products becoming more accessible ▪ The long tail refers to the large portion of products that have little mass appeal ▪ The reduced overhead costs of online retailers allow them to carry more niche products than traditional stores Popularity – Amazon.com currently offers a selection of more than 35 million books, whereas brick- and-mortar stores are limited to ~100,000 books ▪ Consequently, customers are increasingly expecting that products on the long tail will be available and are demanding such products Products McKinsey & Company | 12 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 14. 2 In the next few years, demand for deep analytical talent in the United States could exceed supply by ~50% Supply and demand of deep analytical talent by 2018 Thousands of people 140-190 440-490 180 30 300 ~50% gap 150 relative to 2018 supply 2008 Graduates Other1 2018 Talent 2018 employment with deep supply gap projected analytical demand talent 1 Other supply drivers include attrition (-), immigration (+), and reemploying previously unemployed deep analytical talent (+) McKinsey & Company SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; US Census; Dun & Bradstreet; interviews; McKinsey Global Institute analysis | 13 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 15. 3 The retail sector is undergoing a consumer revolution that will move power away from retailers Context Implications The “all-channel” 1 experience ▪ Consumers are gaining in ▪ Consumers are leveraging the bargaining power as they capabilities of their smartphones to increasingly visit retailers’ websites get product information and Strategies and before making purchases shopping aid on the go – for 2 operations driven by ▪ Consumers increasingly trust and example, using smartphones to scan big data use social media and community barcodes in brick-and-mortar stores, input such as other users on retail consumers instantly receive relevant websites, site-generated information recommendations, and user- ▪ Transparency of information 3 Power to the people generated product reviews creates purer competition, which ▪ Mobile research puts information means retailers must explore on product features capabilities to respond with more and prices at consumers’ agility and create distinctive Growth in emerging fingertips, even within stores offerings that competitors are unable 4 to match markets Pressure on margins and capital 5 productivity in developed economies Volatility in input 6 costs McKinsey & Company | 14 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 16. US EXAMPLE 3 Consumers are gaining in bargaining power as they increasingly visit retailers’ websites before making purchases Consumers visiting a retailer’s website before purchasing in its store Percent 2009 2010 Difference Electronics (e.g., TV, digital 49 67 18 camera, gaming console) Footwear 32 44 12 Office supplies 20 41 21 Books 19 58 39 Clothing (not 14 35 21 including footwear) Health and beauty products 9 38 29 Grocery (e.g., food) 6 34 27 McKinsey & Company SOURCE: iConsumer retail survey, November 2010; US Internet users aged 13 years and older | 15 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 17. 3 Today, consumers increasingly trust and use social media and community input Recommendations that consumers trust Consumer recommendation rate Consumers that trust, or somewhat trust, reviews1 Consumers leaving comments or Percent, N = 3,738 recommendations1 Percent, N > 3,7382 Other users on 57 21 20 retail websites 18 Site-generated 47 recommendations User-generated 42 product reviews Recommendations 37 generated from SNS3 User-generated videos 31 2009 2010 2011 1 As a share of all respondents 2 N = 3,738 (2011), 3,970 (2010), 4,168 (2009) 3 Social networking service McKinsey & Company SOURCE: iConsumer 2011 – RT9L, RT9K | 16 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 18. 3 Because mobile research puts information on product features and prices at consumers’ fingertips, even within stores… US EXAMPLE Place of mobile research Mobile activity penetration Percentage of respondents using Share of population in any category 2010 2011 mobile research, N = 853 (2011) N = 375 (2011) 28 Visited same store website 43 At home 78 32 Visited different store website 40 37 Used price comparison app 38 33 In store 44 Texted 26 17 Used mobile coupon 25 Increase 15 from 33% Scanned barcode 17 Other 26 in 2010 18 Took photo of product 16 McKinsey & Company SOURCE: iConsumer 2011 | 17 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 19. 3 …consumers are leveraging the capabilities of their smartphones to get product information and shopping aid on the go Mobile devices are enabling consumers to Consumers are leveraging mobile tools to compare prices when they are in stores support offline shopping ▪ Apps such as GroceryIQ help consumers organize RedLaser shopping lists and ▪ Using smartphones to scan barcodes in prioritize needs brick-and-mortar stores, consumers ▪ Barcode scanning instantly receive relevant information allows users to quickly ▪ Consumers can compare online and offline add items they are inventory, pricing, and time-to-delivery/ running out of or distance remove items purchased from lists McKinsey & Company SOURCE: Gartner; press searches; RedLaser; GroceryIQ | 18 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 20. 4 Growth will be strong and sustained in emerging markets, which will represent a much larger share of the world’s retail revenue Context Implications The “all-channel” 1 ▪ Emerging markets will continue to ▪ More than half of the growth in experience drive retail growth in the next global retail revenue will come decade from emerging markets during the – While retail markets are next decade Strategies and 2 operations driven by stagnating or growing very slowly – China and other emerging big data in most developed countries, markets will account for 31% of emerging markets are showing the world’s retail sales in 2020, up growth in excess of 5% per from 25% in 2010 annum – Emerging markets will account for 3 Power to the people – The fastest growth will be in more than half of the absolute Southeast Asia growth in retail sales worldwide in ▪ Emerging markets will add more the next decade than 160 million middle-class Growth in emerging households by 2020 4 markets – GDP growth will be twice as fast in emerging countries as in developed economies Pressure on margins and capital – The growing middle class will 5 productivity in rapidly drive up internal developed economies consumption Volatility in input 6 costs McKinsey & Company | 19 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 21. 4 Emerging markets will continue to drive retail growth in the next decade Real retail revenue CAGR for 2011-2020, by country, percent 0 3.5-4.0 > 5.0 0-3.5 4.0-5.0 No data ▪ All the fast- growing retail markets are in the emerging world ▪ In particular, most Southeast Asian countries will experience phenomenal growth of over 5% per year during the next decade ▪ Most developed markets will experience relatively sluggish growth McKinsey & Company SOURCE: Global Insights World Industry Service | 20 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 22. 4 Emerging markets will grow more than twice as fast Emerging countries as developed economies and add more than Developed countries 160 million middle-class households by 2020 Equivalent annual real Evolution of world real GDP growth from Evolution of households income by region 2010 to 2020 distribution in emerging markets1 Real 2005 USD Trillions Percent Millions of households ▪ There will be more 19.3 70.5 1,206 than 160 million 11.1 1,085 new middle-class Household 306 households in 26.2 5.7% income 139 51.2 8.2 emerging ≥ USD 25,000 countries, which is 15.1 more than the current total number of house- Household holds in the US income 945 900 44.3 2.1% < USD 25,000 ▪ This rising middle 36.1 class will rapidly drive up internal consumption 2010 2010-2020 2020 2011 2020 growth Note: Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding 1 Income categories defined per annual income in USD PPP McKinsey & Company SOURCE: IHS Global Insight; Global Insight; McKinsey analysis | 21 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 23. 4 As a result, more than half of the growth in global retail revenue will come from emerging markets during the next decade Retail total sales Origin of the absolute change in retail sales USD Trillions, 2010-2020 Percent, 2010-2020 Percent 100% = 3.2 4.2 China China 3 5 US 12 Other emerging 22 23 26 Other developed1 16 15 Western Europe 31 Western 12 26 Europe 40 Other emerging 12 US 28 27 Other developed 2010 2020 1 Includes Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea McKinsey & Company SOURCE: Global Insights World Industry Service | 22 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 24. 5 Stagnant growth and a highly competitive environment will put pressure on retailers’ margins and force them to cut costs Context Implications The “all-channel” 1 experience ▪ To achieve significant cost ▪ Since the crisis, retailers are savings, retailers are turning to moving toward smaller store technology such as mobile points of formats, with major retailers reducing Strategies and sale, electronic shelf labels, and their average store sizes by up to 2 operations driven by planograms, all of which can reduce 50% in some cases big data costs while improving the customer ▪ Some retailers are experimenting with experience or increasing flexibility for store formats retailers – Smallbox stores are used to ▪ Retail operations are transformed expand in urban areas where 3 Power to the people through massive improvements in larger footprints are difficult or the handling and tracking of goods expensive to install by both retailers and consumers – Online supporter locations and – Retailers can improve their pop-ups allow retailers to add Growth in emerging operational efficiency by using 4 capacity quickly while using markets RFID1 and similar signal alternative or temporary technologies distribution channels – Embedding signal technology for – Market research centres are Pressure on margins all items in a retail store will and capital used to test new formats and 5 improve the customer experience examine retail behaviours productivity in and avoid missed sales because developed economies items can’t be located within the store (e.g., misplaced clothing Volatility in input items at Bloomingdale’s) 6 costs McKinsey & Company 1 Radio frequency identification | 23 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 25. Low 5 To achieve significant cost savings, retailers are turning to Medium technology High Examples of new technologies with cost-saving potential Cost-saving Technology Description Benefits potential Mobile points of Handheld POS in the store Breaks bottleneck at checkout at sale to supplement checkout busiest times, in a cost-effective stations way Electronic Programmable wireless No manual price changes shelf label devices on store shelves necessary, increased pricing flexibility Software for product Increased sales and profits, fewer Planograms placement on store shelves stockouts, and decreased administrative and labour costs McKinsey & Company | 24 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 26. 5 Retail operations are transformed through massive improvements in the handling and tracking of goods by both retailers and consumers Using RFID and similar signal technologies, Embedding signal technology for all items in retailers can improve their operational a retail store will improve the customer efficiency experience ▪ Retailers can optimize inventory ▪ Apparel retailers, where goods are easily management and automate the purchasing misplaced, are using RFID to locate and count process using RFID to track all incoming and goods in stores outgoing stock ▪ Bloomingdale’s recently implemented RFID ▪ Walmart pioneered RFID in inventory, leading tags for individual items, improving stock to an estimated ~USD 290 million in savings accuracy and location for customers McKinsey & Company SOURCE: PCWorld; RFID Journal | 25 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 27. 5 Since the crisis, retailers are moving away from large 2008 store formats 2011 Average new store size 2011 vs. 2008 Thousands of square feet Percent 49 -12 43 134 -3 130 162 -6 152 33 16 -51 168 131 -22 68 -17 56 166 111 -33 McKinsey & Company SOURCE: CBRE Econometric Advisors; Internet Retailer | 26 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 28. 5 Retailers are experimenting with new and innovative store formats and concepts in test markets to address pressure on margins Emerging store Example format category companies Selected examples ▪ Tesco and Walmart use smaller formats to expand into more urban markets where real estate is limited or at a premium – Tesco launched Fresh & Easy Express in November 2011, with stores one third the size of normal formats Smallbox – Walmart Express stores, launched in 2011, are already profitable and are being deployed in dense, as well as in smaller, markets ▪ Walmart temporarily opened pop-up stores during the 2011 holiday season to direct consumer traffic to its website Online ▪ In-store goods used for display purposes for customers supporter to purchase items online ▪ Customers can access the website in the store through tablets and PCs to make purchases ▪ Nordstrom launched Treasure & Bond in August 2011 and currently has one location in Manhattan Market ▪ The store is much smaller than traditional Nordstrom stores research and offers different products centres ▪ The store is used to gain market insights on the shopping habits of the population. Profits from the store are donated to local charities McKinsey & Company SOURCE: Reuters; Los Angeles Times; New York Times | 27 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 29. 6 Retailers will face higher volatility from their input costs and from the economic and political environments in which they operate Context Implications The “all-channel” 1 experience ▪ Recent spikes in food prices reflect ▪ Retailers now must understand the the volatility of costs that retailers risks to which they are exposed face ▪ Cooperatives are equally exposed Strategies and – The food price spike and to many of these risks as their 2 operations driven by economic downturn reversed a traditional competitors big data historical trend of decreasing poverty and hunger prior to 2008, ▪ Retailers must take action to mitigate with 925 million still hungry in these risks, including ensuring that 2010 they have suitable risk 3 Power to the people measurement and management ▪ Some factors that contributed to the capabilities, especially in crises are still relevant, for example – Finance – Slowing growth in agricultural – Contracting production Growth in emerging – Operations 4 – Population growth and rising meat markets – Strategy consumption – Mandates incentivizing biofuel Pressure on margins production and capital – Rising crude oil price 5 productivity in – Adverse weather developed economies – Export restrictions – Civil strife Volatility in input 6 costs McKinsey & Company | 28 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 30. 6 Recent spikes in food prices reflect the volatility of costs that retailers must face Food price index 2003-2004 = 100 240 The food price spike and Factors that economic downturn contributed to the reversed a historical trend crises and that are 200 of decreasing poverty and still relevant hunger prior to 2008, with ▪ Slowing growth in 925 million still hungry agricultural 160 by 2010 production ▪ Population growth and rising meat 120 consumption ▪ Mandates incentivizing 80 biofuel production 2nd peak in February 2011 pushed > 45 million ▪ Rising crude oil 40 price people into extreme poverty ▪ Adverse weather ▪ Export restrictions 0 90 95 00 05 10 ▪ Civil strife SOURCE: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations food-price index; Ronald Trostle, US Department McKinsey & Company of Agriculture; Peter Timmer, Agriculture and Pro-Poor Growth: An Asian Perspective, Centre for | 29 Global Development Working Paper No. 63, July 2005; World Bank Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 31. To mitigate risks associated with high volatility, retailers can use a variety of levers beyond traditional financial instruments Strategic ▪ Integrate vertically Operational/ to balance buy- merchandising side/sell-side ▪ Develop alternative ▪ Develop product partnerships Contracting (sales formulations/ and purchasing) ▪ Invest in pure wider specifications plays or counter- ▪ Align purchasing ▪ Redesign products cyclical and sales Financial ▪ Use substitutes businesses contracts in ▪ Leverage traditional timing/terms ▪ Optimize pack size/ financial price/quality across instruments ▪ Use escalator clauses and/or channels/ ▪ Seek structured formula pricing geography products ▪ Optimize go-to- market strategies ▪ Optimize trade spend/marketing dollars McKinsey & Company | 30 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 32. Contents Overview of key trends Detailed questions for coop retailers McKinsey & Company | 31 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 33. 1 How can coops keep their physical store networks relevant? Context Questions to ponder ▪ The advent of How can the geographical proximity of your physical network still give you a e-commerce makes significant advantage as social and business interactions go virtual? How can you build consumers less A stronger relationships with your customers and the communities you serve to improve loyalty? likely to visit brick- How can the physical network differentiate your offer and better engage your members? and-mortar stores How can you provide a distinct and significant reason for the customer to enter your ▪ Physical networks physical store (e.g., expertise or convenience)? How can you maximize your multichannel of stores have B strategy to provide interaction between online, mobile, and your physical network of retail become less stores? central to the customer relationship Should the role of the network evolve to preserve the traditional advantage of geographical proximity while remaining profitable? How can your network be made less C ▪ Coops are dispro- costly? How can you leverage your network by adding new services needed by your portionately members? Which new member needs are you best able to serve? affected because of their unusually How can you use local knowledge and managers’ entrepreneurial nature to optimize large network store formats offered in different communities? How much flexibility should store D managers and local staff have to experiment with store formats based on their knowledge of ▪ The links to the the local market? How can you effectively disseminate the information on optimal formats community on throughout your network? which coops have historically relied How can you make product offering a point of differentiation through physical stores? are disappearing How can you source more products locally, and will this please your customer base? How E can you use knowledge of local tastes and preferences to tailor offerings on a store-by-store basis? What advantages do you have to tailor product assortment to local preferences? McKinsey & Company | 32 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 34. 2 How can coops maintain an edge in customer satisfaction? Context Questions to ponder ▪ Historically, coop What key elements do your customers truly care about and consider when deciding retailers tend to where to shop? How are you stronger or weaker than your competitors on these dimensions? A prioritize customer What elements would be easiest to improve upon in your cooperative – and would they make a service significant difference? ▪ By leveraging What investments could ensure that customers feel that there is something distinctly technology, different about shopping in your cooperative? Do customers feel that their input is valued competition and that they help shape the direction of your cooperative? For consumer coops, how much do integrates a multi- B your members feel like owners? How can you create an atmosphere where consumers feel channel approach more important than in your competitors’ stores? How can you play a leading role in protecting to satisfy and promoting customer rights and interests (e.g., by ensuring the quality of all your products customers meets certain standards, by always being transparent and fair in your offering to members)? Where are competitors cutting or lacking in customer service? Where are there ▪ Thus, coops need C opportunities for you to fill gaps your competitors leave and to attract consumers on that to redefine their platform, while at the same time fulfilling your cooperative mission? customer experience to What should be the general guiding strategy to improve customer satisfaction in an remain relevant environment in which costs need to be cut and operations need to be more efficient? and competitive in D To what extent can you improve customer service by harnessing technology, big data, and the the market transformation to multichannel, while also controlling costs? Will you require more labour and will the current workforce need more training, or will you need to have a leaner labour force? Given the resources available, what specific investments and initiatives should you prioritize to satisfy customer needs? How can you strike the appropriate balance between E dimensions of service that are most feasible and economical and those that customers appreciate the most, and between initiatives that will yield more tangible payoffs in the short term and those that offer more delayed benefits? McKinsey & Company | 33 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 35. 3 How can coops use the internet and social media to improve member relations? Context Questions to ponder ▪ Coops traditionally How will the “virtualization” of business and social interactions affect cooperatives’ relied on physical traditional proximity advantage and how should your coop adjust? As customers spend presence to engage A more time online and as attachment with their local communities is weakening, how will you still with members be able to engage them via your branch network? What novel ways can you use to engage members? ▪ Now, the internet and social media are connecting How can you harness the power of new online media and the internet to deepen communities of all B relationships with your customers and better understand their needs? How can you kinds engage customers online to know them better and to elicit their input? ▪ Increasingly, How can you use new media and the internet to revitalize the democratic dimension of members are your governance structure? How can you allow members to vote and engage in the expecting their C democratic process over the internet? How can you leverage social media to energize an coop to connect already open communication channel with members (e.g., let a special committee interact via with them virtually social media)? Should you review and redesign your organizational structure to better adapt to the virtualization of interactions? Is your decentralized structure revolving around local branches D still optimal? Should you consider structures in which members interact directly with the broader cooperative and not via their branch? McKinsey & Company | 34 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 36. 4 How will coops grow? Context Questions to ponder ▪ Growth plays a How is growth essential to a cooperative’s business model, or how can it be successful different role in without continued growth? How is continuous growth necessary (or not) for you to remain A coops than in relevant and to fulfill your mission to members? What are the implications of a no-growth traditional business for your members? corporations Should you look for growth opportunities outside your domestic market (e.g., emerging ▪ Today, some markets)? How do your members stand to benefit from the growth in emerging markets? How markets are B could your cooperative suffer competitively in its home market in the future if it does not expand saturated and some abroad (e.g., through lack of scale)? How difficult would it be to seize growth opportunities in environments are emerging markets? recessionary How can you add new products or services to the retail offering? To what extent are there ▪ What will be the growth opportunities through new products that would complement the current mix? How can C next development you add unrelated products in which your customers have gained an interest? How would such path for coops in a move affect your image and position in your traditional market? that context? How can your cooperative grow by filling some of the gaps left by the shrinking of the welfare state? How can you leverage your brand, your physical network, and your financial D resources to grow in some of the areas left unoccupied by the withdrawing welfare state? How can your cooperative build the credibility and the capabilities to fill some of the gaps? How would these new ventures benefit your members and affect your positioning? Why should you focus (or not) on taking market shares from competitors in the domestic market to fuel growth? How can you build a platform to gain market shares from E the competition (e.g., better customer service)? How competitive is the landscape – are your competitors likely to retaliate and attempt to attract your customer base, or is their attention focused elsewhere? McKinsey & Company | 35 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved
  • 37. 5 Are there opportunities for alliances among non-competing cooperatives? Context Questions to ponder ▪ Retail cooperatives What are the most promising areas for collaboration with other non-competing face larger, more A cooperatives, both in retailing (in other regions) and in other sectors? How can you form powerful alliances to pool purchasing power or to develop private labels? How can you form a joint private competitors label that would be more cost-effective and create a stronger brand? How can synergies be exploited to optimize international supply chain logistics? How can you establish cooperative ▪ Larger competitors academies to jointly train workers? How can you exploit M&A opportunities in core and adjacent enjoy economies businesses (e.g., discount, pharma, travel)? How can you undertake joint ventures with other co- of scale that are ops to tackle a new market or a new product? not attainable by coops B How can you create a forum with other cooperatives to discuss the challenges you face, ▪ Alliances and joint identify best practices, and educate policymakers? How could you work together to help ventures offer the improve your public image and make policymakers more aware of the unique aspects of your potential to access model? How can you initiate a benchmarking effort across cooperatives to identify and share the benefits of size best practices? C What are the main obstacles to collaboration and how can they be overcome? What has prevented you from collaborating more with other cooperatives until now? What steps could you take to overcome these obstacles? How favourable are your members to the possibility of joining forces with other coops? D What strategic next steps should leaders take in the short term to help foster collaboration between cooperatives? Which non-competing cooperatives should you contact to jointly explore possible avenues for collaboration? McKinsey & Company | 36 Copyright © 2012. All rights reserved