Emerging technology shifts that are beginning to reshape the reality and perceptions of our lifestyles and workstyles.

1. Twilight Session: September 2010 Emerging Trends Mark Fowler Act On Insight markf@actoninsight +64 21 76 5556

2. A ct O n I nsight (BETA) future state catalysts Scanning the emerging future Strategy transformation Facilitation

3. FUTURE NOW! APPLE avalanche ANDROID attach SOCIAL MEDIA Shapers New BUSINESS MODELS x x x x x x x

4. time return on effort Discontinuity entrepreneurial harvest trouble

5. APPLE avalanche ANDROID attack SOCIAL MEDIA Shapers New BUSINESS MODELS

7. Global smartphone market to grow 55.4% in 2010 Source: “ Worldwide Converged Mobile Device Market Projections Raised 10% for the Year, Says IDC ” IDC – 7 September 2010 55.4%

8. Heads roll as Nokia prepares for iPhone war Nokia has been thrown into disarray, with its top two executives announcing they will be leaving the company on the eve of its biggest event of the year, Nokia World in London REPLACED RESIGNED 16 June 2010: Profit Warning. Stock lost 9% in one day 26 June 2010: MeeGo to replace Symbian on SmartPhones CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo EVP Mobile Solution Unit Anssi Vanjoki New CEO Stephen Elop Former president of Microsoft's business software group

9. With iPad, Apple is No. 3 in portables “ When including the iPad as part of the notebook market Apple leapt over Asus, Lenovo, Toshiba and Dell in terms of global unit share” Source” “With iPad, Apple is No. 3 in portables” – Fortune – 2 August 2010 Chris Whitmore Deutsche Bank

10. The iPad is cannibalizing notebook demand Remarkably, Apple's traditional MacBook business posted accelerated unit growth on a Y/Y basis in 2Q despite the launch of the iPad while every other Top 5 vendor slowed. Source” “With iPad, Apple is No. 3 in portables” – Fortune – 2 August 2010

11. With iPad, Apple is No. 3 in portables The iPad is directly cannibalizing demand for other vendors' notebook products Source” “With iPad, Apple is No. 3 in portables” – Fortune – 2 August 2010

12. iPad WiFi 3 rd April 2010 iPhone 4 24 th June 2010 Strong Apple share price growth momentum over the last 12 months

13. $254.52 $121.33 $140.85 $169.38 $39.09 $115.29 $49.18 $34.33 $39.34 $22.11 $167.01 $26.55 $55.27 $94.48 $123.98 $48.22 $32.55 $36.44 $59.76 $55.36 $11.50 $189.51 $217.29 $86.81 $120.93 $153.70 $24.33 $103.33 $37.57 $29.99 $35.42 $18.51 $163.47 $23.94 $55.18 $96.64 $126.21 $51.08 $36.95 $41.81 $65.81 $64.97 $33.70 $243.96 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Microsoft Hewlett Packard Cisco Google RIM Intel Nokia Sony Nintendo Yahoo IBM Dell SAP Samsung Electronics Oracle Taiwan Semiconductor Ericsson EMC Qualcomm Amazon Facebook * Apple $54.45 USD Billion Market Capitalisation for selected technology companies Share price times the number of shares outstanding = Value gainers and losers over the last six months: * Facebook secondary market transactions 3 rd March 2010 and 24 August 2010 -$37.23 -$19.92 -$15.68 -$14.76 -$11.96 -$11.61 -$4.34 -$3.92 -$3.60 -$3.54 -$2.61 -$0.09 $2.16 $2.23 $2.86 $4.40 $5.37 $6.05 $9.61 $22.20 -$34.52 USD Billion 13 Sept 2010 1 Mar 2010

14. ANDROID attack SOCIAL MEDIA Shapers New BUSINESS MODELS APPLE avalanche

15. Android has nosed past Apple’s iOS in the last quarter to grab a 27% share of those recent US smartphone subscribers. Source: “ Android Soars, but iPhone Still Most Desired as Smartphones Grab 25% of U.S. Mobile Market ” Nielsen Wire – 2 August 2010

16. 2Q 2010: Google’s Android passed Apple’s iOS to become the World's 3rd most popular smartphone OS Source: “ Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Device Sales Grew 13.8 Percent in Second Quarter of 2010 ” Gartner – 12 August 2010

17. Smartphone OS shares in 2014: Symbian 33%, Android 25%, Apple iOS 11%

18. SOCIAL MEDIA shapers New BUSINESS MODELS APPLE avalanche ANDROID attack

20. US research: What do you check first: E-mail (58%) Facebook (11%)

21. August 2010: US Web users More hours clocked up on Facebook than Google 41.1 million minutes (9.9% of total) 39.8 million minutes (9.6% of total) 37.7 million minutes (9.1% of total) “ More hours clocked up on Facebook than Google ” Stuff.co.nz – AP – 10 September 2010 Source:

22. Top U.S. Search Sites for July 2010 Google YOY share steady at 64.2% - Bing jumps up to 13.6% Source: “ Top U.S. Search Sites for July 2010 ” Nielsen Wire – 25 August 2010

23. 11 Sept 2010 20 Jun 2009 New Zealand’s top 15 websites (all Websites) for the industry 'All Categories’ ranked by visits for the week ending 11 September The data samples featured are from the Hitwise Online Competitive Intelligence Service, which bases its daily insights on the online usage and search behaviour of over 460,000 NZ Internet users. What a difference a year makes

24. http://empire-20.ny.gov New York State launches Empire 2.0 Centre of Excellence Website Source: “ New York State Continues Initiatives to Connect, Create and Collaborate ” New York State Office for Technology – 20 August 2010

25. New BUSINESS MODELS APPLE avalanche ANDROID attack SOCIAL MEDIA shapers

26. FREE or “FREEMIUM” Digital electronics have revolutionized free For almost all digital products, the marginal cost of reproduction is zero 1. Today companies can profit more by giving things away free than they can by charging for them The future of a radical price

27. FREE Abundance thinking is becoming a far more powerful engine for commerce than scarcity thinking 1.

28. FREE examples 1. Producer Consumer Consumer 2 $ C. Freemium A free version (product 1) is made available to anyone who wants it in the hope some users will then choose to upgrade to the paid premium version (product 2) which has more features. Only some pay for the full version + Producer Consumer 2 A. Direct cross-subsidies The producer gives the consumer product 1 for free in the hope this will then entice the consumer to subsequently purchase product 2. $ Get one thing free, then buy another Producer Consumer 2 D. Non-monetary markets In some markets, no money changes hands at all. People gift/give things to each other (for various motivations…reputation, attention…) without ulterior motives or expectation of future payment whatsoever. “ Gift economy” give away for non-monetary rewards 1 1 Producer Advertiser Consumer 2 3 $ $ B. Three-party markets The producer provides product 1 free-of-charge to consumers. Advertisers buy advertising 2 to be included in product 1, in the hope they will be able to sell product 3 to the consumer. Advertising, Sponsors & Paid Media Search AdSense 1 An open-source hardware company 1

30. The Fidelity vs. Convenience trade-off Why some things catch on, and others don't 2.

31. $254.52 $121.33 $140.85 $169.38 $39.09 $115.29 $49.18 $34.33 $39.34 $22.11 $167.01 $26.55 $55.27 $94.48 $123.98 $48.22 $32.55 $36.44 $59.76 $55.36 $11.50 $189.51 $217.29 $86.81 $120.93 $153.70 $24.33 $103.33 $37.57 $29.99 $35.42 $18.51 $163.47 $23.94 $55.18 $96.64 $126.21 $51.08 $36.95 $41.81 $65.81 $64.97 $33.70 $243.96 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Microsoft Hewlett Packard Cisco Google RIM Intel Nokia Sony Nintendo Yahoo IBM Dell SAP Samsung Electronics Oracle Taiwan Semiconductor Ericsson EMC Qualcomm Amazon Facebook * Apple $54.45 USD Billion * Facebook secondary market transactions 3 rd March 2010 and 24 August 2010 APPLE avalanche ANDROID attach SOCIAL MEDIA Shapers New BUSINESS MODELS -$37.23 -$19.92 -$15.68 -$14.76 -$11.96 -$11.61 -$4.34 -$3.92 -$3.60 -$3.54 -$2.61 -$0.09 $2.16 $2.23 $2.86 $4.40 $5.37 $6.05 $9.61 $22.20 -$34.52 USD Billion 13 Sept 2010 1 Mar 2010

32. A ct O n I nsight (BETA) future state catalysts Scanning the emerging future Strategy transformation Facilitation