Status, Trends and Impact on Technology Industry: Presentation by Barry Kirk of CAVCOE given at IoT613 on Friday, September 30, 2016.

1. Autonomous
Vehicles:
Status, Trends
and Impact on
Technology
Industry
Barrie Kirk, P.Eng.
Executive Director, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence
Presentation to IoT613
September 30, 2016

2. CAVCOE
2

3. CAVCOE Partners
3

4. Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and
deployment
• Trends and general impacts of AVs
• Impact on technology industry
• Conclusions
4

5. First Generation of AVs are Here
• Semi-autonomous cars: Tesla Model S,
Infiniti Q50, Mercedes S-Class
– Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and
braking)
– Lane-keeping
– Automatic parking
– Pedestrian avoidance / automatic braking
• Fully-autonomous, special purpose vehicles
– Usually low-speed, controlled environment
5

6. 6
Navya

7. Trial of RDM’s fully-
automated taxis,
Milton Keynes, UK
7

8. 8
Suncor: Fully-Automated Heavy Hauler

9. AV Rollout
• Rollout will be incremental; two versions
• Technology companies: Google, RDM, Navya
– Start with low-speed, electric, fully-automated,
controlled environment
– Add speed, capability to drive on public roads
• Most major car manufacturers
– Add Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
(ADAS) to existing models: intelligent cruise
control, lane-keeping, pedestrian avoidance, auto
parking
– Add more capability and evolve to full automation
9

10. Timeline and Predictions
10
Now First commercial, semi-autonomous,
highway-capable cars
First commercial, 2nd generation,
fully-automated shuttle bus services
2020 Automakers launch fully autonomous
cars
2025 AV usage significant part of total
Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs)

11. Fewer Collisions
• AVs have the
potential
to be much safer
than human
drivers
• 93% of collisions
involve driver error
• Hopefully, we can
reduce collisions
by 80%
11
Ottawa Citizen

12. “Crash Proof Cars”
• There is no such thing !!!
• All hardware, software fails occasionally
• 7% of collisions have nothing to do with the
driver
– Will happen whether a human or computer is
driving
• There will be collisions, fatalities, injuries
– But far fewer
12

13. Development Challenges
13
• Reversing
• Extreme weather
• Work zones
• Traffic signals AND
police officer
• Road alterations
• Pedestrian prediction
• Facial reading
• Rare events

14. Regulatory and other Challenges
• Regulatory frameworks:
– AV testing
– Vehicle standards
• Municipal planning for AVs
• Insurance
• Legal
14

15. Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and
deployment
• Trends and general impacts of AVs
• Impact on technology industry
• Conclusions
15

16. 16
Automated
Vehicles
Connected
Vehicles
Electric
Vehicles
ACE Vehicles

17. 17
Automated
Vehicles
Connected
Vehicles
Electric
Vehicles
Driverless
TaxisSharing
Economy

18. Impacts on Private Sector
• Corporate business plans
– Auto industry: OEMs, Tier 1 and 2s,
– Auto insurance
– Electricity generation, distribution
– Forest products
– Oil industry
– Parking
– Resource industry
– Taxis, rental cars
– Technology industry
– Trucking: long-haul and local
18

19. Direct Employment Displacement
• Auto-body repair
• Auto insurance
• Bus drivers
• Courier service drivers
• Driving instructors / trainers
• Health staff involved with organ and tissue donation
• Lawyers, staff involved with car collision litigation
• Medical staff involved in car crash victim rehabilitation
• Road safety professionals
• Taxi drivers / chauffeurs
• Tow-truck drivers
• Traffic police
• Transport truck drivers
• Trauma surgeons
19

20. Impacts on Government
• All levels / most departments
– Finance, economy and GDP
– Health-care
– Hydro
– National security
– Policies on technology, industry, R&D
– Policing
– Transit including transit infrastructure
– Transportation policies and regulations
– Urban planning, housing
20

21. Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS)
• “Mobility as a service”
• “Personalized mass transit”
• Trend away from car ownership
– To use of fully-automated taxis
– Merging of regular taxis, car rental and transit
business models
• Significant mode of transportation in future
• Call one via smartphone
• Slightly more expensive than premium transit
ticket
21

22. Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and
deployment
• Trends and general impacts of AVs
• Impact on technology industry
• Conclusions
22

23. Impact on Auto Industry
• AVs will be highly disruptive
• Value of technology in cars, now 4-5% to
increase to 40-60%
• The auto industry will change more in the
next five to 10 years than it has in the last 50
– GM CEO Mary Barra
• Market for personally-owned cars will
decrease substantially in 2020s
23

24. 24

25. Lines of Code
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Space Shuttle 787 Jetliner F-35 Car
Max
Min
25

26. Impact on Auto Industry (2)
• Morgan Stanley predicts the death of the auto
industry as we now know it
– Business Insider
• Forecasts the end of private ownership of
automobiles in favor of rentals, along with the
advent of cars without steering wheels -- or drivers
Ford, GM doomed to diminished status "or worse"
without a radical "re-evaluation or strategic
realignment"
– Adam Jonas, head of global auto research at Morgan
Stanley
26

27. CV: Current Applications
• Infotainment for humans:
– Traffic updates, weather, restaurants, concierge
service
– Streaming music, movies, on-line games, social
networking
• Internet of Things (IoT):
– Vehicle remote access
– Uploading vehicle health reports
– Uploading Usage Based Insurance (UBI) data
– Fleet management
27

28. CV: Future Applications
• IoT:
– Safety / collision avoidance
– Fleet management of driverless taxis
– Updating car’s software: OS, AV control, HMI
– Scanning web for conditions on road ahead
– Road-trains / platooning
– Uploading road, traffic, weather data
• For humans and computers:
– Calling a driverless taxi
– Enhanced integration of smartphones into
vehicles
– Updating maps
28

29. Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): status and
deployment
• Trends and general impacts of AVs
• Impact on technology industry
• Conclusions
29

30. Conclusions
• AVs will lead to huge, disruptive changes to
our personal lives and society
– In 2030, our cities and our world will look very
different
– Key benefit: computers will be much better
drivers than humans
• Substantial opportunities for technology
companies in a very large market
30

31. Follow-up
• Barrie Kirk
bkirk@cavcoe.com
613-271-1657
• www.cavcoe.com
– Latest issue of AV Update, a free monthly
newsletter with news on AVs from around the
world
– Subscription link
31