Ben Page's presentation at our fringe event at the 2011 Conservative Party Conference

1. Conservative Conference 2011
Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

2. Is 2015 in the bag?

3. Reasons to be
cheerful

4. Although Labour have a lead, you have broadly 4
kept your core support
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
2010
General
Election
37%
35%
13%
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5. Labour’s support has mainly come from dissatisfied 5
LibDems
Base: British adults 18+ voting/with voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Election/Monitor aggregates

6. And satisfaction is falling – though not 6
unusually so
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?
1997
Net satisfied
1987
1983
2001
2010
1979
2005
1992
General Election
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Note: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

7. Cameron is a
strong leader

8. Half are dissatisfied with his performance – 8
though again that’s not unusual
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
CAMERON BLAIR
Net satisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
BROWN MAJOR THATCHER
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

9. And he leads on key Prime Ministerial qualities 9
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Cameron Miliband Clegg
59%
A capable leader 37%
31%
47%
Good in a crisis 24%
22%
45%
Has sound judgement 38%
31%
Understands the problems 54%
52%
facing Britain 49%
Likeable 57%
43%
58%
Puts the interest of the country above 39%
those of his own party 33%
37%
57%
Has a clear vision for Britain 37%
33%
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10. (although also seen as most out of touch – as 10
was Blair…)
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Cameron Miliband Clegg
63%
Out of touch with ordinary
people 43%
52%
52%
More style than
substance 41%
52%
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

11. And the party is also seen as most fit to govern…. 11
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party
50%
Understands the problems
facing Britain 50%
45%
44%
Has a good team of leaders 34%
30%
50%
Fit to govern 38%
23%
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12. But also some negatives – you are seen as 12
extreme
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party
24%
Keeps its promises 24%
16%
64%
Will promise anything to
win votes 64%
65%
49%
Divided 55%
65%
28%
Extreme 22%
16%
Looks after the interests of 32%
41%
people like me 32%
42%
Out of date 45%
41%
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13. Potential banana
skins
1. The economy

14. The economy is the number one issue 14
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Economy
Unemployment
Crime
Immigration
NHS
Europe
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

15. The British are among the world’s leading 15
pessimists…
Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger,
somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor, 19,755 online
*Note that the total global average does not include this month’s two ad-hoc countries: Greece and Ireland.
interviews with16/18–64 yr olds August 2011

16. Widespread concern about the effects of cuts 16
And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12
months?
Not at all concerned Don’t know
Very concerned
Not very
concerned
Fairly concerned
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17. And most prefer cuts to be slow rather than fast 17
And which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about reducing the
deficit?
It is important to cut spending quickly
even if this means immediate job March 2011
losses, because it will be better for
the economy in the long term
It is better to cut spending
more slowly, to reduce the
impact on public services and
the economy
Neither
Don’t know
Base:1,000 British adults 18+, 11-13 March 2011 Source: Economist/Ipsos MORI

18. And yet you do hold the lead on the number 18
one issue
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Why no party won
the GE outright?
33%
23%
8%
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19. …and will get some credit if it improves 19
If the British economy improves in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly responsible?
The Conservative Party
The Liberal Democrat Party 33%
Conservatives and Lib Dems together
The state of the global economy
The previous Labour government
The banks
Don’t know
Other
Base: 505 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

20. - But share the blame if it gets worse 20
If the British economy gets worse in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly to blame?
The Conservative Party
27%
The Liberal Democrat Party
Conservatives and Lib Dems together
The state of the global economy
The previous Labour government
The banks
Don’t know
Other
Base: 503 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

21. 2. The Coalition

22. Brits haven’t fallen in love with the idea of 22
coalitions
Do you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority?
May 2010 April 2011
Don’t know Good thing Don’t know
Good thing
Bad thing
Bad thing
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23. Tensions in the Coalition? 23
From what you know so far, which of these comes closes to your view?
The new government is a
genuine coalition in which
Con voters
decisions are made jointly in 2010
between the Conservatives
and the Liberal Democrats
The Conservatives are
making most of the
decisions in the new
government
Neither
LibDem
Don’t know voters in
2010
Base: 1000 British adults 18+, 15th-17th April 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Political Monitor

24. 3. Still the nasty
party?

25. The party is the most disliked…. 25
Conservative Labour LibDem
Like the party
Don’t like the party
Base: 1,162 British adults 18+, 21st - 24th January 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

26. Debate on reform didn’t help trust on the NHS 26
Which party do you think has the best policies on health care, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats
or some other party?
March 2010 June 2011
Conservatives Conservatives
Labour Labour
March 2010 - Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th - 22nd June 2010
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
June 2011 - Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 17th - 19th June 2011

27. People don’t think ‘we are all in it together’ 27
Do you think that the government’s plans to reduce the national deficit will hit rich people or poor people
hardest, or will they affect everyone equally?
Don’t Know Will hit rich people hardest
Will affect everyone
equally
Will hit poor people hardest
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th - 13th March 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

28. While you have your traditional strengths…. 28
Which party do you trust most to… the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party
Restore faith in the political 27%
22%
system
10%
Encourage individuals to take
46%
22%
responsibility for themselves
7%
42%
Preserve law and order 25%
6%
37%
Promote family values 28%
8%
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

29. So Labour has theirs….. 29
Which party do you trust most to…the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party
22%
Heal the divisions in British
society 28%
13%
20%
Be fair to all sections of society 34%
18%
23%
Give children and young
people a good start in life 39%
11%
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

30. And women are particularly critical – less likely 30
to mention good points…..
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party?
Men Women
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

31. …and more likely to mention negative ones 31
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party?
Men Women
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Out of date
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

32. Reasons to be cheerful? 32
Credible as party of government, best leader,
and traditional strengths – appealing to heads
rather than hearts right for this time?
Despite concerns, people still trust you to
make the decisions on the economy (so far)
But all depends on the economy: if it gets
worse and cuts really start to bite – or even if
it just takes a long time - what other positives
do you have to offer?

33. Thank you
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI
ben.page@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000