Britons give UKIP as much chance of winning the European elections as finding life on Mars according to Ipsos MORI’s Predictions Poll for 2014.

1. 1
2014 Predictions Poll
January 2014
Contacts:
© Ipsos MORI
Version 1 | Public
Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com
Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com
020 7347 3000

2. Predictions 2014
2
I’d now like to ask you some questions about what you think might happen in 2014. For each of the following,
please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen
% Likely
% Unlikely
65%
A current Premiership footballer will come out as gay
England will be knocked out of the World Cup by
losing on penalties
61%
China will overtake the United States as the world’s
largest economy
24%
58%
At least one country will leave the European Union
45%
Prince Harry will get engaged
44%
39%
UKIP will win (be the largest party at) the European
Elections
29%
The NASA Mars Rover will find evidence of life on
Mars
28%
Base: 954 British adults 18+, 10th - 16th January 2014
36%
55%
There will be a hosepipe ban in parts of Britain
There will be more riots throughout the UK similar to
those in August 2011
27%
40%
47%
43%
55%
58%
62%
Source: Ipsos MORI
Ladbrokes
odds
n/a
6/1
50/1
2/1
10/1
4/6
n/a
Evens
12/1

3. Economic predictions for 2014
3
In 2013/2014, do you think that each of the following will rise, fall, or stay about the same level?
Prediction
year
2014
% Rise
52%
Mortgage interest rates
2013
2014
19%
2013
18%
Your own standard of living
Base: 954 British adults 18+, 10th - 16th January 2014.
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12th - 14th January 2013
27%
56%
2014
10%
36%
44%
2013
4%
36%
56%
51%
5%
29%
27%
63%
% Fall
4%
51%
52%
2014
The number of people unemployed
in this country
39%
38%
2013
The rate of inflation
% Stay about the same
15%
17%
31%
Source: Ipsos MORI