Ipsos MORI’s final Scottish referendum poll shows the No campaign with a very narrow lead, in line with other polls in recent days. Among those certain to vote, 50% say they will vote No, with 45% saying they will vote Yes and 4% still undecided. Excluding those undecided, 53% of certain voters say they intend to vote No, with 47% to vote Yes. Some 95% of Scots say they are certain to vote today, including 90% of those aged 16-24.Both sides, though, include supporters for whom this is their first time registered to vote: 13% of Yes supporters and 10% of No voters.

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Scottish Independence Referendum Poll for Evening Standard
September 2014

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Should Scotland be an independent country? Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote (excluding don’t know/refused)
Base: All registered and certain to vote (excluding don’t know and refused) (886). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes 47%
No 53%
All certain to vote (excluding don’t know and refused)

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Should Scotland be an independent country? Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All registered to vote (980); all certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes 44%
No 50%
Don’t know/ refused 6%
All voters
Yes 45%
No 50%
Don’t know/
refused 4%
Certain to vote

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Voting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
51%
45%
Yes
Don’t know/refused
No
40%
3%
6%
55%

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47%
50%
4%
Voting intention by age group
Yes
No
Don’t know/refused
53%
46%
70%
25%
5%
31%
63%
6%
16-24
25-34
35-54
55+
Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014

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Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you think the result will be? Do you think…?
Outcome
Base: All registered to vote (980). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes will win 30%
No will win 46%
Don't know 24%
Outcome

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Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because you are hopeful for the future if the Yes/No side wins, or because you are fearful for the future if the Yes/No side loses?
Factors behind vote – fear or hope?
All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Hopeful 57%
Fearful 38%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Hopeful 80%
Fearful 16%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Hopeful 36%
Fearful 58%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Overall
Yes supporters
No supporters

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Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because of the practical consequences of the result, or because of your feelings of national identity?
Factors behind vote – practical consequences or national identity?
All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Practical consequences 74%
National identity 19%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Practical consequences 70%
National identity 24%
Neither 4%
Don't know 2%
Practical consequences 78%
National identity 15%
Neither 2%
Don't know 5%
Overall
Yes supporters
No supporters

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As far as you know, are you registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum?
Voter registration
Base: All (991). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes 99%
No 1%
Don't know *%
Registered to vote?
Registered before 89%
First time registered 11%
Registered before?
Base: All registered to vote (980). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014

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Technical details
•This presents the topline results from the final Ipsos MORI Scottish Referendum poll for the Evening Standard.
•Results are based on a survey of 991 adults aged 16+, including 980 respondents registered to vote, conducted by telephone.
•Fieldwork dates: 16th September – 17th September 2014
•Data are weighted by: age, sex, region and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public- private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data
•Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories
•Results are based on all respondents registered to vote (980) unless otherwise stated.

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Thank you
mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com | 020 7347 3260 @IpsosMORIScot
@IpsosMORI