Scottish Independence Poll Shows Dead Heat
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On the eve of the independence referendum Ipsos MORI’s new poll for STV News has shown significant gains for the Yes campaign, putting the outcome of the vote in the balance. Among those who said that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote tomorrow, 49% say they intend to vote No (down five percentage points from August), 47% say they will vote Yes (up by seven points), while 5% remain undecided.
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Scottish Independence Poll Shows Dead Heat
- 1. 1 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor September 2014
- 2. 2 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Voting intention amongst those certain to vote (excluding undecided) Base: All certain to vote (excluding undecided) (1230). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 Yes 49% No 51% All certain to vote (excluding undecided)
- 3. 3 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention excluding undecided – recent trend Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided (1230) . Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 No Yes
- 4. 4 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention Base: All (1377); all certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 Yes 42% No 45% Undecided 13% All voters Yes 43% No 45% Undecided 12% Certain to vote
- 5. 5 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum voting intention – recent trend Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 No Yes Undecided
- 6. 6 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Voting intention by gender Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 50% 40% Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Men Women % voting Yes 36% 50%
- 7. 7 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI 47% 38% 13% Voting intention by age group Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 Yes No 54% 43% 47% 39% 13% 34% 55% 9% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+ *Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds % voting Yes
- 8. 8 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Voting intention by levels of deprivation Base: All certain to vote (1313). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 59% 36% 56% Most deprived areas Least deprived areas Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Most deprived areas Least deprived areas % voting Yes 30%
- 9. 9 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Which way are you most inclined to vote? Which way are undecided voters leaning? Base: All undecided (163). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 Yes 27% No 24% Undecided 49% All undecided voters
- 10. 10 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Regardless of how you intend to vote in the referendum, what do you think the result will be? Do you think…? Outcome Base: All (1377). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 Yes will win 31% No will win 44% Don't know 25% Outcome
- 11. 11 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI How likely would you be to vote in the referendum on Thursday, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote Turnout is likely to be high Base: All. Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 55+ All 16-24 % Absolutely certain to vote
- 12. 12 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI As far as you know, are you registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum? Voter registration Base: All (1397). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014 Yes 98% No 1% Don't know 1% Registered to vote? Registered before 88% First time registered 12% Registered before? Base: All (1377). Data collected among 1377 Scottish adults 16+, September 15th – 16th 2014
- 13. 13 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Technical details •This presents the topline results from the Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Wave 21 •Results are based on a survey of 1,377 respondents (adults aged 16+ who are registered to vote, 1,397 including those not registered to vote) conducted by telephone •Fieldwork dates: 15th September – 16th September 2014 •Data are weighted by: age, sex, and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data •Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories •Results are based on all respondents (1,377) unless otherwise stated
- 14. 14 Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269 @IpsosMORIScot