As the SNP gathers for its first conference s a majority government, Ipsos MORI looks at the rise in support for the party in recent times and considers key challenges for the future.

1. SNP Party Conference 2011
An Ipsos MORI briefing
October 2011
Contacts:
Mark.Diffley@ipsos.com
0131 240 3269

2. Voting intention

3. After securing a majority in the Scottish Parliament,
the SNP has a commanding lead in our latest poll
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you
use your first vote?
Others – 3%
Lib Dem
7%
SNP
13%
Conservative
49%
28%
Labour
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

4. The party’s share of voting intention has increased
steadily over the last six years
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
Scottish Parliament Election Scottish Parliament Election
Result Result
50 49%
40
30 28%
20
13%
10
7%
0 3%
Mar- Jun- Sep- Mar- Jun- May- 2008 Aug- Nov- Feb- Aug- Nov- Feb- Apr- May- Aug-
05 05 05 06 06 07 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI

5. SNP support is higher among men and older people
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you
use your first vote?
SNP Labour Lib Dem Conservative
Men 54% 23% 13% 6%
Women 45% 32% 12% 8%
18-24 41% 35% 13% 7%
25-34 45% 33% 12% 7%
35-54 52% 28% 6% 9%
55+ 50% 24% 18% 5%
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

6. It is also stronger among those in work
Q. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you
use your first vote?
SNP Labour Lib Dem Conservative
Urban 49% 32% 11% 5%
Rural 51% 13% 17% 13%
Working 51% 29% 6% 6%
Not working 48% 33% 8% 8%
Retired 47% 22% 23% 4
Base: All certain to vote = 60% (611).
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

7. Over the last 18 months, the SNP has gained support
across all groups – particularly among older people
Percentage point change since February 2010 (+/-)
18 20
15 15
12 11 12 11
7 6
3
e
an
ng
al
+
ng
e
4
4
4
d
al
al
55
-2
-3
-5
ire
ur
rb
ki
ki
M
m
18
25
35
R
et
or
or
U
Fe
R
w
W
ot
N
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, February 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

8. Satisfaction with Alex Salmond

9. Almost two thirds of Scots are satisfied with the way
Alex Salmond is doing his job as First Minister
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way Alex Salmond is doing his
job as First Minister?
Don’t know
9%
28%
Dissatisfied Satisfied
62%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

10. His satisfaction rating is considerably higher than
any of the other main UK party leaders
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as
Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/leader of the Labour party?
Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction
Alex Salmond 62% 28% +34
David Cameron 30% 61% -31
Nick Clegg 26% 62% -36
Ed Milliband 35% 49% -14
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

11. The First Minister’s satisfaction rating is consistently
strong and has never been higher
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First
Minister of Scotland/Leader of Scottish Liberal Democrats/leader of the Labour
Party/Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister?
Alex Salmond Willie Rennie Ed Milliband David Cameron Nick Clegg
% satisfied
62%
60
50
40
35%
30 30%
Gordon Brown Tavish Scott 26%
20
Ed Milliband
17%
10 Willie Rennie
0
Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI

12. Satisfaction is highest among SNP supporters but is
also drawn from other parties’ voters
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job
as First Minister of Scotland?
% Satisfied % Dissatisfied
90
45 52
34
36 6
58 47
Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

13. The First Minister is popular across all groups
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Alex Salmond is doing his job
as First Minister of Scotland?
% Satisfied % Dissatisfied
65 60 71 60 62 61 63 63 60 61 65
28 29 19 21 27 27 27
31 31 32 30
an
g
al
en
en
d
ng
4
4
4
+
in
ire
55
-2
-3
-5
ur
rb
M
om
ki
k
18
25
35
R
et
or
or
U
W
R
w
W
ot
N
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

14. Over the last 18 months, Alex Salmond has gained
support across all groups – particularly young people
Percentage point change since February 2010 (+/-)
25
21 19 19
18 16
15 13 15 15
12
e
an
ng
al
+
ng
e
4
4
4
d
al
al
55
-2
-3
-5
ire
ur
rb
ki
ki
M
m
18
25
35
R
et
or
or
U
Fe
R
w
W
ot
N
Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults 18+, February 2010 and August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

15. Important issues

16. The economy and unemployment are currently
the most important issue facing Scots
Q. What do you see as the most important issue facing Scotland today?
Q. What do you see as other important issues facing Scotland today?
SNP
(Most + others) supporters
Economy/economic situation 33% 37%
Unemployment/factory closure 31% 32%
/ lack of industry
Education/schools 26% 29%
Public spending cuts 20% 21%
NHS/hospitals/health care 17% 19%
Crime/law and order/ASB 14% 12%
Scottish independence/devolution 12% 14%
Immigration/immigrants
9% 10%
(race relations)
Sectarianism 7% 8%
Housing 7% 8%
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

17. Independence has increased in importance since the
Scottish Parliament elections
Q. What do you see as the most important/other issue facing Scotland today?
50
40
Economy 33%
30 Unemployment 31%
Education 26%
20 Public sector cuts 20%
NHS 17%
Crime 14%
10
Independence 12%
0
Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone Source: Ipsos MORI

18. Economic optimism

19. Scots are slightly more optimistic about the prospects for
the Scottish economy than they are for the UK economy
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same
or get worse over the next 12 months?
UK economy Scottish economy
Don’t know, 2% Don’t know, 4%
Improve Improve
18%
22%
Worsen 42%
49%
Worsen
30% Stay the
same
Stay the 32%
same
Base: All asked about UK economy (508); all asked about Scottish economy (494) Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

20. Optimism has dipped slightly since April, though it is
not as low as this time last year
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same
or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
UK economy Scotland's economy
% Net UK General Election Comprehensive Scottish Scottish
improve Spending budget Parliament
Review approved Election
30
20
10
0
Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11
-10
-20 -20%
-30
-31%
-40
-50
Data collected among c.1,000 Scottish adults 18+ by telephone (half were asked about UK economy
and half about Scottish economy) Source: Ipsos MORI

21. SNP supporters are least pessimistic about the
Scottish economy
Q. Do you think that the general economic condition will improve, stay the same
or get worse over the next 12 months? (% improve minus % worse)
% Improve % Worsen
28 24
15 15
48 44 33
53
Conservative supporters Labour supporters Lib Dem supporters SNP supporters
Base: 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

22. Independence

23. The majority of Scots back more powers for the
Scottish Parliament
Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask
whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish
Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland
remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or
disagree with the proposal:
All who are certain
All
to vote
Undecided/Don’t know Undecided/Don’t know
8% 5%
Disagree Disagree
26% 28%
66% 67%
Agree Agree
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

24. Support for more powers is higher among younger
people
Q. The referendum is likely to contain two separate questions. The first question will ask
whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish
Parliament to include more laws and duties and all tax raising powers, while Scotland
remains part of the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or
disagree with the proposal:
% Support % Oppose
68 66 74 72 66 64 69 75 57 68 64 68 62
28 29 19 23 29 28 18 26 27
31 37 32 34
ng
l
n
e
ed
g
ed
+
ed
4
4
4
e
a
a
n
al
55
-2
-3
-5
al
ur
ki
riv
rb
ki
ir
riv
M
m
18
25
35
R
et
or
or
U
ep
ep
Fe
R
w
W
td
td
ot
os
as
N
M
Le
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

25. However, only around a third of Scots support full
independence
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the
powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country,
separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or
disagree with this proposal:
All who are certain
All
to vote
Undecided/Don’t know Undecided/Don’t know
7% 5%
35% Agree 35% Agree
58% 60%
Disagree Disagree
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011

26. Support for independence is higher among young
people and those living in more deprived areas
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the
powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an independent country,
separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or
disagree with this proposal: % Support % Oppose
48 49 45
38 31 32 34 33 33 29 35 32
25
49 45 52
58 63 65 59 62 62 67 61 61
70
g
l
n
ng
ed
ed
e
+
ed
4
4
4
e
a
n
a
al
55
-2
-3
-5
al
ur
ki
riv
rb
ki
riv
ir
M
m
18
25
35
R
et
or
or
U
ep
ep
Fe
R
w
W
td
td
ot
os
as
N
M
Le
Base: All (1,002); All certain to vote (703). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

27. However, those groups are less likely to vote
in a referendum
Q. And, how likely would you be to vote in a referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10
means would be absolutely to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Certain to vote in a referendum(%)
Men 74
Women 63
18-24 49
25-34 58
35-54 71
55+ 76
Working 70
Not working 60
Retired 71
Most deprived 63
Least deprived 72
Urban 67
Rural 71
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

28. Just under half of those who would vote yes to more
powers, would also vote yes to independence
Q. The second question will ask whether you agree or disagree with a proposal to
extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to enable Scotland to become an
independent country, separate from the UK. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would
you vote to agree or disagree with this proposal:
Those supporting first proposal
Undecided (6%)
44%
Oppose Support
independence independence
50%
Base: All supporting more powers and certain to vote (458). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+,
25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

29. The majority of SNP supporters would vote yes to
both questions
Q. If the referendum was held tomorrow, would you vote to agree or disagree with this
proposal:
Full fiscal powers Independence
Oppose
Support
17% Support
Oppose 40%
60%
83%
Base: All voting SNP in Scottish Parliament election (414). Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+,
25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

30. The majority of Scots would like the referendum to
be held earlier than the SNP plans
Q. When do you think the referendum should be held?
Don’t know – 3%
Never/shouldn’t
be held
6%
As soon as
28% possible
Between 2 and 5
years from now
37% 55%
27%
Within the next
2 years
Base: All certain to vote = 68% (703).
Data collected among 1,002 Scottish adults 18+, 25-29 August 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

31. Thank you
For further information contact
mark.diffley@ipsos.com on 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com 0131 240 3264
Follow us on Twitter @IpsosMORIScot
© 2009 Ipsos MORI – all rights reserved