Introduction to technology roadmapping and the T-Plan method Best Practice Workshop: Technology Roadmapping Brno, 5 February 2013 Dr Robert Phaal (Centre for Technology Management)

1. Best Practice Workshop:
Technology Roadmapping
Brno, 5 February 2013
Introduction to technology
roadmapping and the T-Plan method
Dr Robert Phaal
Centre for Technology Management
Topics
• History and concept of roadmapping
• Example roadmaps
• Generalisation and customisation
• Workshop methods

2. 2014
Business Premier Database,
Beeton, D (2007)
2500
?
2003
UN
1997
Philips,
EIRMA
1991
ITRS
1945
Motorola 1987
0
CTM research
•‘Fast-start’
‘
’
• Customisation
• Integration
• Visualisation
1952
2005
Roadmaps as ‘strategic lenses’
’
Business /
strategic issue
Roadmap
‘lens’
’
Information
structure
Graphical
style
Understanding &
communication

3. Motorola Roadmap Matrix
Year
Tuning
Selectivity
1982
1983
Push button
Display
Vehicular LAN
Digital modulation
1985
1986
LEDs
Maps
1u CMOS
Liquid crystal
Fluorescence
Single wire
Glass fibre
500 kHz bandwidth
RECEIVER 2
RECEIVER 3
Stereo
Plus:
Plus:
Seek
1991
Voice actuated
Data
3u CMOS
Consensus-based roadmap +
‘minority report’
’
Report + summary graphic
Updated frequently
Scan
1990
Digital signal processors
Paging
5u CMOS
1989
Touch pad - Synthesizers
RECEIVER 1
PRODUCTS
1988
SAWs
Stereo
Linear
1987
Push button - Synthesizers
Ceramic resonators
Subcarrier function
IC technology
1984
Personal
paging
NEXT GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION
Plus:
A NEW SERVICE
Stock market
Road information
Remote
amplifiers
Remote controls
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
Source: Willyard & McClees, 1987
Lucent Technologies technology roadmap
Albright & Kappel (2003)

4. Lucent Technologies technology roadmapping approach
Source: Richard Albright The Albright Strategy Group, www.albrightstrategy.com
Philips (modern ‘standard’ format)
’
EIRMA, 1997

5. International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, 2003
http://public.itrs.net/
‘Red brick wall’
Sony DRAM Roadmap #1
http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html

6. Sony DRAM Roadmap #2
http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol34/featuring1.html
Japanese METI roadmap

7. www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadma
pping
Panasonic Mobile Communications Roadmap
http://panasonic.co.jp/pmc/company/en/cc_0005.html

8. Display technology roadmap
www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm
Technology convergence roadmap
“Untangling the future”, Paul
Saffo, Business2.0, June 2002,
www.business2.com

9. Particle physics roadmap
“Particle physics – roadmap to the future”, F. Giman, SLAC Summer Institute on Particle Physics, Aug. 2-13 2004.
Roadmapping: a general-purpose ‘strategic lens’
’
Roadmap framework
(Supports integrated and aligned
strategic and innovation planning)
Functional perspectives
(Roadmap
architecture)
Typical
viewpoints
Commercial &
strategic
perspectives
Design,
development &
production
perspectives
Past
Market
Short-term
Medium-term
Long-term
Time
Knowledge
types
When?
Information
types
Vision
Route(s) forward
Why?
Business
Drivers
Strategy
Needs
Pull
Product
What?
Service
Form
Function
Performance
System
Push
Technology &
research
perspectives
Technology
How?
Science
Resources
Key questions:
2) Where are
we now?
3) How can we
get there?
1) Where do
we want to go?
Solutions
Capabilities
Resources

10. “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?” – Alice
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to” – Cheshire Cat
"I don't much care where” – Alice
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go” – Cheshire Cat
Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland, 1865
Fundamental questions
(When?)
Time
a) Why do we
need to act?
?
?
?
b) What should
we do?
?
?
?
c) How can
we do it?
?
?
?
3) How can we
get there?
1) Where do we
want to go?
2) Where are
we now?

11. Technology roadmapping
Two extremes
1. Market ‘pull’
’
2. Technology ‘push’
’
- How to reach a goal?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Planning
Market focus
Assumes product market opportunity
Deterministic
Convergent
Customer driven
- What opportunities could arise?
•
•
•
•
Technology focus
Looking for opportunities
Open ended
Divergent
Two styles of technology roadmapping
• Intensive - Short term attack strategy
• Prompted by new business start, major strategic change or new competitive
threat
• Multidiscipline team meet several times to “complete” roadmap (and make
strategic decisions)
• Part of the Business Fabric - Culture driven
• Develop and maintain roadmaps as part of periodic team meetings
• Review roadmaps at periodic strategy checks and updates
• Use roadmaps to monitor and run ongoing business
Source:
Richard Albright
ex-Lucent Technologies

12. Uncertainty / risk of
prediction / investment
Planning horizon
Long term
Medium term
Short term
New (?):
- Markets
- Products
- Technologies
- Capabilities
- Organisational structures
- Distribution channels
- Competition
Operations
Innovation
What to manufacture?
How many of each model?
What materials to order?
Strategy
Which products?
Which markets?
What cost?
Time
Which technologies?
qualitative focus
quantitative focus
Roadmaps provide a consistent framework throughout the
strategic planning / innovation process
Process funnel (e.g. strategy, new product development)
Market-Technology, Summary-Detail
Iteration
Requirements fluid
Concepts fuzzy
Many unknowns
Many options
Many assumptions
Few constraints
Scenarios
Effort
Time
Requirements clear, stable
Concepts clear, stable
Fewer unknowns, risks understood
Fewer options, greater constraints
Year
1982
Tuning
?
?
?
?
Selectivity
?
IC technology
Display
?
?
?
?
?
1984
1985
1986
Push button - Synthesizers
Linear
1987
1988
Data
?
?
Vehicular LAN
1u CMOS
Fluorescence
Single wire
?
?
?
?
RECEIVER 2
RECEIVER 3
Stereo
Plus:
Plus:
Scan
PRODUCTS
Personal
paging
Seek
Divergent process
Convergent process
Explore
Plan
Shape
Implement
Glass fibre
500 kHz bandwidth
RECEIVER 1
?
1991
Maps
3u CMOS
Liquid crystal
Digital modulation
?
1990
Voice actuated
Digital signal processors
Paging
5u CMOS
LEDs
1989
Touch pad - Synthesizers
SAWs
Stereo
Subcarrier function
?
?
1983
Push button
Ceramic resonators
NEXT GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION
Plus:
A NEW SERVICE
Stock market
Road information
Remote
amplifiers
Remote controls
Super Hi Fi
Local maps

13. Roadmapping & decision support tools
STEEPI
Porter’s
’
Five Forces
(Social, Technological,
Economic, Environmental,
Political, Infrastructural
Trends & Drivers)
SWOT
(Strengths,
Weaknesses,
Opportunities,
Threats)
Foresight
Technology Intelligence
Scenario
t
Innovation
System
Structure
(taxonomy)
Scaleable
(hierarchy)
Market
Business
Product
Service
System
Technology
Resources
Portfolio
Linking
grids
Valuation /
Balanced scorecard
Management tool resources
Matrix tools
www2.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/t_cat/index.htm
Decision support
www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/dstools/
Design management
www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/dmg/tools/
New product development
www.npd-solutions.com/bok.html#anchor2114450)
Value based management
www.valuebasedmanagement.net
Innovation management
www.managing-innovation.com
Change management
www.change-management-toolbook.com/mod/book/view.php?id=74
Continuous improvement
www.systems2win.com
Visualisation methods
www.roxanneoconnell.com/VIZ/index.html
Visualisation methods
www.visual-literacy.org/periodic_table/periodic_table.html

14. Software for technology roadmapping
www.sopheon.com
Accolade Roadmapping
www.sharpcloud.com
www.lets-focus.com
Technology roadmapping process
Benefits
• Facilitate development and integration of new technology
• Support for strategy and planning processes
• Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology
• Provide top level information on the technological direction
• Support communication and co-operation
• Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge
• Support sourcing, resource allocation, risk management
and exploitation decisions

15. Useful references & resources
Willyard and McClees (1987), ‘Motorola's Technology Roadmap process’, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
’
Groenveld (1997) ‘Roadmapping integrates business and technology’, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
’
EIRMA (1997) ‘Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision’, Working Group Report No 52, European Industrial Research
’
Management Association, www.eirma.org
de Laat and McKibbin (2003), ‘The effectiveness of technology road mapping - building a strategic vision’, Technopolis, Dutch
’
Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Special journal editions on roadmapping (multiple company cases and academic perspectives):
• Research Technology Management, Part 1 - Vol. 42, No. 2, March 2003; Part 2 - Vol. 47, No. 2, 2004 (5 papers, including experience
from Domino Printing Sciences, General Motors, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, Roche, Rockwell Automation and Royal Mail)
• Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 71, No. 1-2 , 2004, nine papers
• International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2007, six papers, including Philips & Siemens
Guidance notes:
• Industry Canada: ‘Technology roadmapping in Canada: A development guide’ & ‘Evaluating technology roadmaps - a framework
’
for
monitoring and measuring results’, http://www.ic.gr.ca/eic/site/trm-crt.nsf/eng/home
’
• US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,
July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/guide.pdf
www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/research/ctm/trm
Questions?

16. ‘Fast-start’ workshop methods
and T-Plan approach
Roadmapping challenges
50
Response (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Starting up
the TRM
process
Developing a
robust TRM
process
Roll-out of
the TRM
process
Keeping the
TRM process
'alive' on an
ongoing
basis
Other
Source: CTM survey, 1999

17. Roadmapping applications (250+)
Sector / product
Aims
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
-
Industrial coding (x3)
Postal services (x10)
Security / access systems
Labelling software
Surface coatings
Medical packaging (x2)
Automotive sub-systems
Power transmission
Railway infrastructure (x3)
National infrastructure
Building controls
Road transport (x2)
Technical consulting (x15)
Automotive / Aerospace
Academic (x3)
Biochemicals
Satellite navigation
Food processing (x5)
Pneumatic systems
Emerging technologies
Automotive (x2)
Retail
Construction
Chemicals
Defence
Packaging (x4)
Packaging
Energy distribution (x2)
Defence
Satellites
Food processing
Sustainable development
Personal
Packaging (x2)
Energy systems
Aerospace
Metrology
Packaging
Biofuels
Consulting (x4)
Computational science
Electronic displays
Printing
Cognitive science
Product / technology planning
Integration of R&D into business; business planning
Product / technology planning
Product / technology planning
New product development process
Business reconfiguration
Service development & planning
Business opportunities of new technology
Capital investment planning and technology insertion
Research programme planning
New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration
Defining the national research agenda for the sector
New product / service development, strategy
Corporate co-operation and synergy
Strategic planning
Research priorities / network development
Research priorities / network development
Research priorities / network development
Innovation strategy
Research priorities
Innovation opportunities
Business and product strategy
Global production strategy
Research priorities
Technology valuation
Technology development & exploitation, innovation, strategy
Sector level trends
Asset management strategy / technology strategy
Development of roadmapping system
Innovation opportunities & synergy
Product / technology planning
Regional network development (technology transfer & skills)
Life planning
Breakthrough cost reduction and innovation strategy
R&D strategy & system development
Manufacturing technology strategy development
Research prioritisation
Sector trends and priorities
Regional research and policy prioritisation
Regional network development, research and infrastructure prioritisation
Research prioritisation
Technology strategy
Development of roadmapping system
Identification of application and innovation opportunities
Variety of sectors, company
sizes and types, products and
services and technologies
Variety of strategic
business goals and
contexts
S-Plan and T-Plan ‘fast-start’ workshop methods
’
Level
Portfolio
Landscape
1a
1c
Option
1b
Time
Topic
2
S-Plan
T-Plan

18. 3 Ps
People
to provide knowledge
experience and insight
Paper
to organise process
and capture knowledge
Post-it notes
and other stationery to
facilitate knowledge sharing
Planning
(customisation checklist)
• Context: focus, scope, aims and resources
• Roadmap architecture
• Process, including other tools
• Participants
• Workshop scheduling
• Integration: systems, tools, processes & information
• Preparatory work

19. Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process
Focus, scope, aims
Plan
Business need
Domain
knowledge
dialogue
Business
owner
Architecture
TRM process
owner
Process
Typical S-Plan workshop

20. Aligning central R&D with business
innovation in global packaging firm
BU 1
(Europe Region 1,
Category A)
BU General
BU 3
manager
(USA,
Category B)
BU General
manager
BU 4
(USA,
Category C)
BU General
manager
Central
Research
Group
(Europe)
BU General
manager
BU 2
(Europe Region 2,
Category C)
Interface
managers
BU General
manager
Roadmapping used to
align R&D portfolio with
business unit
innovation strategy
BU 5
(Europe Region 2,
Category A)
T-Plan aims
• To support the start-up of company-specific
TRM processes
• To establish key linkages between technology
resources and business drivers
• To identify important gaps in market,
product and technology intelligence
• To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology roadmap
• To support technology strategy and planning
initiatives in the firm
• To support communication between
technical and commercial functions

21. T-Plan reference process
Workshop 1
Market
• Performance
dimensions
• Market / business
drivers
• Prioritisation
• SWOT
• Gaps
• Setting up
the process
Workshop 2
Product
• Product feature
concepts
• Grouping
• Impact ranking
• Product strategy
• Gaps
Workshop 3
Technology
Workshop 4
Roadmapping
• Technology
solutions
• Grouping
• Impact ranking
• Gaps
• Linking
technology
resources to
future market
opportunities
• Gaps
• Following on
from the process
• Managing the process
T-Plan guide
Japanese
German
Chinese (Modern)
Spanish
Chinese (Traditional)

22. Roadmap structuring and prioritisation
Technology
Roadmap
time
Technology /
Resources
Technology solutions
Product /
Service /
Production
Product features
Product features
Business / Market drivers
Business /
Market
Step 1
Step 4
Step 2
Step 3
Analysis
Grids
Softco case example
• Small (25 staff) software firm
• Used T-Plan to explore the development of a new
niche software product aimed at the Pharmaceuticals
sector

23. Example Market-Product grid (Softco)
Market
Softco
Ranking:
5
7
5
7
9
6
10
=1
= -1
Σ Cell scores x Driver priority
Normalised: max score = 10
4.7
4.2
1.1
8.7
8.3
4.9
4. Globalisation
3. Cost of trial
B. No. 1
2. Validated software
A. Reusability
4.5
8. Future proof
4.8
7. Connectivity
5.5
5. Leading edge
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
6. Ease of use
Softco
6
7
CRO
2
4
Major
Pharmaceutical
1
8
1 year after release
6
2
D. Motivation of staff
7
10
E. Improving bottom line
10
10
C. Time to market
Market /
Business
Drivers
9
9
1. Time to market of drug
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
2. Integrity of trial
Prioritisation:
(scale of 10)
*
3. Compliance
4. Services
5.0
4.1
3.8
5. Data management
10.0
10.0
3.0
9.6
9.9
9.5
5.9
5.8
2.5
8. Flexible implementation
6.8
7.5
10.0
9. Softco requirements
0.7
0.8
2.7
3.2
4.2
5.2
6. Printing
**
7. Global solution
10. User friendly
* 1 for difficulty, 2 for size ** Payback later
0.7
0.8
2.7
3.2
4.2
5.2
Ranking:
=1
= -1
Σ Cell scores x Driver priority
Normalised: max score = 10
CRO
Softco
6.8
7.5
10.0
Major
Pharmaceutical
5.9
5.8
2.5
10. User friendly
9.6
9.9
9.5
9. Softco requirements
10.0
10.0
3.0
8. Flexible implementation
5.0
4.1
3.8
6. Printing
*
8.7
8.3
4.9
5. Data management
Technology
Areas
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
*
4.7
4.2
1.1
3. Compliance
5.5
4.8
4.5
4. Services
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
Sofco
2. Validated software
*
Prioritisation:
- from Grid 1
(scale of 10)
7. Global solution
Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)
1. Alliances
7.8
7.6
7.2
2. System architecture
10.0
10.0
10.0
3. Design
7.1
7.2
7.1
4. ‘Soft’ technologies
’
6.9
6.8
6.5
5. Output technologies
6.4
6.4
6.3
8.6
8.4
7.6
8.3
8.2
7.5
6. Securing technologies
7. Core technologies (re-use)
**
* must have
** -ve re-use past, + re-use future

24. Example first-cut roadmap (Softco)
Year 0
1. Security
Year 1
Phase 1
Market /
Business
Competitor
threat
Time out
security levels
User
rights
Legislation?
Digitally
signed labels TA6
Phase 3 Year 2
Phase 2
Phase 4
Phase 5 Year 3
Version 1
release Price: £10
-15K/seat
Competitor
threat? Market
launch
Audit
trail
Digital signatured
audit trail TA6
Watermarked
forms & reports
Product Features
TA5 TA6
2.Validated
Software
3. Compliance
Form TA5
printing
Validated protocol
design module
Multi-language
database
TA7
6. Printing
Labelling
Printer
XML data
libraries independent format
TA2
7. Global
Solution
TA2
Software
protection
User
documentation
2. Sys. Arch.
3. Design
4. ‘Soft’ Tech.
’
5. Output Tech.
Legal
expertise
Web
enabled
User-docs Far East TA1
XML data
WAP
language
import / export (Far East)
TA1
modules for UI
Multiple
platform
support
Database partners
(harmonised phrases
& legislation)
CH / JAVA / CORBA
component architecture
A
Platform inde- Modular design
spec. pendent design
UML / OOD
Develop
Validatable Build
Dev.
Mngmnt
Test
eChem
sales
Team
team GNP procedures from
plan
tech.
model
(FDA)
source
stability leader
Report
generation
Protocol
design wizards
Enhanced
network of
contacts
Appoint
distributors
outside UK
Internet
compatible
On-line
tutorials
ERP
link
TCP / IP
CGI / ISAPI
ISO 9000
TickIT
Internet
updates
24 hour
support
Enhanced
development
team stability
Enhanced
report generation
Write once
technology
6. Securing Tech.
Scanning &
storage of
hand-written forms
Rapid &
Pipe ++
7. Core Tech.
Other
Resources
TA1
TA2
10. User
Friendly
Network of
contacts
Global
support
Label set
libraries
Windows
platform
TA2
support
Customisable
Domain expert
partner
Other bar- TA7
code types
Inter-site User-docs EU lang Email
security (EU lang) modules notifications
TA1 for UI
UNICODE
9. Company
Requirements
1. Alliances
Label
design
module
User group
& conference
Graphic
User formatrepresentation
ting tool
of R&S phrases for forms
Billing &
inventory
management
Statistical
analysis
Secure
archiving
Windows
Code 39 & 128 Blinded
printers:
PDF 417
labels
PS / PCLS / PDF
barcodes TA7
Enhanced
randomisation
Upgrade path
for existing
users
Multi-level
training
8. Flexible
Implementation
Technology Areas
Advanced
automation
4. Services
5. Data
Management
Validated
Ver. 330
Validated
Ver. 2
Validated
Ver. 1
Protocol
Randomised
design module design package
Database
escrow TA6
Biometric
passwords
Raise
£ x million
Recruitment
software &
management
TAx = link to Technology
Area x
New
building
Thank you
Questions?