LE, Doan Phac Deputy Director General Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency (VAEA) Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) Email: ldphac@most.gov.vn IAEA/INPRO Consultants’ Meeting on Socio- and Macroeconomic Issues in National Nuclear Energy Decision Making Vienna, 19-21 March 2012

1. IAEA/INPRO Consultants’ Meeting on Socio- and Macroeconomic Issues
in National Nuclear Energy Decision Making
Vienna, 19-21 March 2012
__________________________________________________________
Vietnam’s Way to Nuclear Energy
LE, Doan Phac
Deputy Director General
Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency (VAEA)
Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST)
1

2. Outline
1. Overall status of Vienam’s nuclear programme
2. Main challenges
3. Factors considered when contemplating on the
nuclear power option
4. Main benefits and drawbacks of nuclear power
5. Role of the public and public relation activities
2

3. 1. Overall status of nuclear power
programme in Vienam
3

4. 1.1. Growth Rate, Capacity, and Generation
2001 - 2010
• Average Commercial Electricity Growth Rate
• Period 2001-2010 14.5%/year
• Period 2006-2010 13.7%/year
• Average Electricity Generation Growth Rate
• Period 2006-2010 13.3%/year
In 2010
• Installed Capacity & Import 21,297 MW
• Available Capacity 19,713 MW
• Pmax 15,416 MW
• Electricity Generation 100.07 TWh
• Commercial Electricity 87.7 TWh
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5. 1.2. Structure of Electricity Generating Mix in 2010
Import Diesel
4.7% 2.5% Hydro
Gas Turbine 38.0%
31.4%
Oil-fired
2.7% Gas-fired
Coal-fired 2.2%
18.5%
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6. 1.3. Projection on Electricity Demand
2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
High Scenario
Com. Elect. 70,046 86,756 184,284 318,511 494,126 739,928
(GWh)
Elect. Gen. 87,109 100,007 210,852 361,945 561,506 833,817
(GWh)
Capacity 13,867 16,048 33,426 57,180 88,401 132,201
(MW)
Base Scenario
Com. Elect. 70,046 86,756 169,821 289,882 430,867 615,205
(GWh)
Elect. Gen. 87,109 100,007 194,304 329,412 489,621 695,147
(GWh)
Capacity 13,867 16,048 30,803 52,040 77,048 110,215
(MW)
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7. 1.4. Installed Capacity Structure (2010 – 2030)
Base Scenario (MW)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Hydro & 7,416 14,006 17,701 20,401 22,501
Pump (34,8%) (32,6%) (26,4%) (21,1%) (16,4%)
Storage
Oil % Gas - 7,724 10,912 12,595 17,285 17,285
fired (36,3%) (25,4%) (18,7%) (17,9%) (12,6%)
Coal-fired 3,940 15,255 30,765 44,790 76,310
(18,5%) (35,5%) (45,9%) (46,3%) (55,7%)
Import 1,000 1,073 1,839 3,509 5,259
(4,7%) (2,5%) ( 2,7%) (3,6%) (3,8%)
Renewable 678 1,679 3,129 4,829 4,929
(3,2%) (3,9%) (4,7%) (5,0%) (3,6%)
Nuclear 1,000 6,000 10,700
(1,5%) (6,2%) (7,8%)
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8. 1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme
in Vienam (1/2)
• November, 2009 Vietnam's National Assembly approved the
Government Plan on the implementation of the Ninh Thuan Nuclear
Power Project composed of Ninh Thuan 1 and Ninh Thuan 2 NPPs.
• June 2010, the Prime Minister approved Master Plan for the
Implementation of the Strategy for Peaceful Utilization of Atomic
Energy up to 2020, of which Ministry of Construction was assigned to
conduct a Project on “Planning Site for Radioactive Waste Disposal”
and submit to Prime Minister for approval by end of 2015.
• October 2010, Vietnam and Russia signed an Inter-governmental
Agreement on Cooperation in Construction of NPP in Vietnam.
• October 2011, Vietnam and Japan signed an Arrangement on
Cooperation in Construction of Ninh Thuan 2 NPP.
• July 2011, the Vietnam’s Prime Minister approved Master Plan on
Electricity Development, period 2011-2020 with vision to 2030.
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9. 1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme
in Vienam (2/2)
According the Master Plan:
• Ninh Thuan 1 consists of 4 units x 1000 MW; the first unit
construction planned to start by the end of 2014; Units 1 & 2 will be
put into operation in the 2020-2021; Units 3 & 4 in 2024-2025;
• Ninh Thuan 2 consists of 4 units x 1,000 MW, the first unit
construction start by end of 2015; Units 1 & 2 will be put into
operation in 2021-2022; Units 3 & 4 in 2026-2027.
• From 2020 to 2027, every year, there will be about 1,000 MW of NP
to be added to national electricity system; 2 units x 1,350 MW will be
added in 2028-2029. By 2030, there will be 10 units with total
capacity of 10,700 MW.
• Vietnam’s NP capacity will increase from 1,000 MW (1.5%) in 2020 to
6,000 MW (6.2%) in 2025 and 10,700 MW (7.8%) in 2030.
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10. Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP Sites
Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPPs is located
at Ninh Thuan Province
• Ninh Thuan NPP 1
Site: Phuoc Dinh Commune
Ninh Phuoc District
• Ninh Thuan NPP 2
Vinh Hai
Site: Vinh Hai Commune
Ninh Hai District
Phuoc Dinh
10

11. Ky Xuan
(Ha Tinh)
Potential NPP Sites: 8
Duc Thang
(Source: Planning Orientation on Nuclear (Quang Ngai)
Power Development in Vietnam up to 2030 Duc Chanh
(Quang Ngai)
Hoai My
(Binh Dinh)
Xuan Phuong
(Phu Yen)
Binh Tien
(Ninh Thuan)
Vinh Hai
(Ninh Thuan)
Phuoc Dinh
(Ninh Thuan)
11 11

12. Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP Projects
• Russia and Japan have been chosen as partners of the Ninh Thuan 1
and Ninh Thuan 2 NPP Projects, respectively.
• In 2010, established State Steering Committee for Ninh Thuan NP
Project led by a Deputy Prime Minister.
• In 2011, established State Steering Committee for Project on Training
and Developing of Human Resources in the Field of Atomic Energy up
to 2020 led by a Deputy Prime Minister.
• The Investor (EVN) is selecting Consultants for establishing the
Dossiers for Sites approval, and Dossiers for Feasibility Study (FS) of
Ninh Thuan 1&2 NPPs.
• According to the Milestones approach, Vietnam is standing at the
Phase 2: Preparatory work for the construction of a nuclear power
plant to reach Mileston 2: Ready to invite bids for the first NPP.
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13. 2. Main challenges
13

14. 2. Main Challenges (1/2)
As a newcomer-country embarking to NP, Vietnam is facing
many challenges
1. Infrastructure needed for a NPP on both the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’,
especially legal framework, education and training system is still
at low level;
2. Shortage of human resources in almost aspects relevant to NPP
project implementation;
3. Investment capital for NPP project is mainly based on low-
interest and preferential loans from partners (as mentioned in
the six criteria/requests of Vietnamese Government for
cooperation partners of the NPP Projects); and
4. Capabilities of R&D organizations, TSOs, as well as domestic
industries… are limited;
14

15. 2. Main Challenges (2/2)
5. Assuring safety, security, and non – proliferation requires to
become parties of some international instruments (AP,
CPPNM and the Amendment, Vienna Convention, Joint
Convention)…;
6. Fukushima accident raises more public concern, requests re-
view of nuclear safety and related issues, at the results ,
licensing time and construction period will be prolonged and
project cost will increase…; and
7. Implementing two projects with two partners of different
technical regulations and standards on sitting, technologies,
operation… also causes difficulties to formulation of
regulatory documents.
15

16. 3. Factors considered when
contemplating on the nuclear power
option
16

17. 3. Factors considered (1/3)
Pre-FS Report on the Construction of NPPs in Vietnam submitted
to the Government and approved by the National Assembly in
November 2009 included 14 chapters covering almost aspects
(Factors) to be considered when deciding Ninh Thuan NPP
Project:
 Chapter 1. NP Necessity: Projections on energy demand, the ability
of the exploitation of energy resources, calculating the possible
alternatives and giving agurments for the necessity of building
NPPs in Vietnam;
 Chapter 2. NP Technologies: Overview of the NPP technologies,
focusing primarily on three technology types: PWR, BWR and
CANDU, as well as possibility on fuel supply for each type; thence
establishing their comparision criteria serving to select the
appropriate technology type;
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18. 3. Factors considered (2/3)
 Chapter 3. NPP Sites: Survey and site selection results, including
economic, natural and social conditions of Ninh Thuan NPP sites;
 Chapter 4. Technical Solutions: Main parameters of the reference
NPPs with PWR and BWR technologies and unit capacity of 1000
MW;
 Chapter 5. Radioactive Waste: Measures for radioactive waste
treatment and management; providing criteria for preliminary site
selection and a few of candidate sites for low and medium level
radioactive waste storage;
 Chapter 6. Building and Organizing Construction: characteristics
and construction solutions for Ninh Thuan NPP project;
 Chapter 7. Operation, Maintenance, and Training: Operaration
and maitance of a NPP; current status and needs of manpower for
Ninh Thuan NPP project as well as NP programme;
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19. 3. Factors considered (3/3)
 Chapter 8. Nuclear Safety: Introducing technical and technological
solutions to ensure NPP safety; legal aspects of nuclear safety;
 Chapter 9. Environment: Environment status and Environment
Impact Assessment of Ninh Thuan NPP Project;
 Chapter 10. Preliminary total investment: Preliminarily estimating
total investment for Ninh Thuan NPP Project;
 Chapter 11. Modes of investment, Mobilizing capital and Finance
Analysis for NP projects;
 Chapter 12. Public Communication and Relation: Results of the
public opinion survey through the polls, seminars and exhibitions, as
well as proposed implementation plans in the near future;
 Chapter 13. International Cooperation; and
 Chapter 14. Security of Ninh Thuan NPP projects.
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20. 4. Main benefits and drawbacks of
nuclear power
20

21. 4.1. Main benefits (or Necessity) of Nuclear Power
Development in Vietnam (1/5)
Backgroud
 Vietnam’s energy policy is based on a harmonious solution for
sustainable development by taking into account full capabilities of
new energy resources in the country, and combining together with
power import, coal and gas import, and renewable energy.
 According to the Base Scenarios, up to 2015 Vietnam is still a net
primary energy export country. But the energy shortage will be about
53 million TOE by 2020 and up to 143 million TOE by 2030. Taking
into consideration all possibilities of mobilizing local natural
resources and electricity import from neighbor countries, the likely
fuel shortage for power generation after 2020 is remarkable. If there
will be no new resources added, the Ratio of External Dependency
will be 36% in 2020 and up to 57% in 2030 and continues to increase.
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22. 4.1. Main benefits… (2/5)
 On 17 August 2004, the Government of Viet Nam decided to issue The
Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development in Viet Nam (Viet
Nam Agenda 21) with the folowing objectives:
 The overall objective of the sustainable development is to create a
materially, culturally and spiritually plentiful life for the people, quality
of life for all citizens, the consensus of society and harmony between
the people and the nature. The development is to be a tight,
reasonable and harmonious combination of three elements: economic
development, social equity and environmental protection.
 The objective of sustainable development in economic terms is to
obtain a stable economic growth rate with an appropriate economic
structure, satisfy the people’s demands for living standards
improvement, avoid economic depressions and stagnation in the future
and avoid leaving heavy burdens of debts to future generations.
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23. 4.1. Main benefits… (3/5)
 The objective of the sustainable development in social terms is to obtain
high results in the implementation of social progress and equality, ensure
ever improved nutrition and quality of health care for the people, ensure
opportunities of education and employment for all people, reduce hunger
and the poverty ratio and lessen economic disparity among different social
classes and groups, reduce social evils, improve equality in rights and
duties of members and generations in a society, maintain and develop the
diversity and identity of natural culture, constantly upgrade the
civilizations levels in the material and spiritual life.
 The objective of the sustainable development in environmental terms is
to appropriately exploit and thriftily and effectively utilise natural
resources; effectively prevent, stop, solve and control environmental
pollution, protect the living environment protect national parks, natural
protected areas, biosphere reserve areas, preserved biodiversity;
overcome environment deterioration and improve the environment’s
quality.
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24. 4.1. Main benefits… (4/5)
Therefore, NP development is an optimal solution. The benefits (or
necessity) of NP are considered in the following aspects:
1) Economic aspect
Being competitive with electricity generation used imported fuel,
contributing to meeting electricity demand when the capability on
exploitation of indigenous resources limited, NP development is a
component of national energy development strategy on diversification
of primary energy sources, reduction of dependence on imported
energy, and ensuring energy security.
2) Social aspect
NP is affordable. It provides public with more possibilities on access
to electricity, especially in the rural and remote areas. Therefore, NP
contributes to raising people’s living qualities.
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25. 4.1. Main benefits… (5/5)
Especially, material and spirit life of local people in the NPP areas will be
improved due to investment and supports of the Government and
utilities, as the results, new jobs created, infrastructure (including
housing, roads, schools, hospitals, entertainment centers…) developed,
and local incomes increased. In addition, NP power development
contributes to enhancement of national capabilities on science and
technology, development of infrastructure, promoting development of
variety of domestic industries and other economics.
3) Environment aspect
Contribution to reduction of environmental pollution by reducing of
fossil fuel using and to the implementation of national strategy on
rational and sustainable exploitation, conservation of national
resources.
Nuclear power contributes to the implementation of Vietnam’s
Sustainable Development Plan.
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26. 4.2. Main drawbacks of nuclear power
 Problems on radioactive waste and spent fuels treatment,
management, and storage;
 High requirements of Infrastructure development;
 High requirement of man-power;
 High requirement of ensuring nuclear safety, security, and non-
prolefiration;
 High requirements of accession and implementation of nuclear
internation instruments;
 International relation, especially in the region.
 Requirement of huge investment capital with a long-time
construction period;
 High risk may be caused by many reasons.
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27. 5. Role of the public and
Public relation activities
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28. 5. Role of the public and
Public relation activities (1/2)
• Public, including many scientists, managers, social activists, local
people at NPP sites, have participated in the national debate on
nuclear power. Most Vietnamese people agreed with the approval of
the National Assembly on Ninh Thuan nuclear power project
• Since 1996 with the cooperation of nuclear power - related foreign
companies and institutions, a great deal of international nuclear
power seminars, workshops, and exhibitions have been organized
around the country, in particular, in Ninh Thuan province.
• The public education activities have been continuously conducting
under many different forms such as mass media, publication of
documents and booklets on nuclear power, organizing the visits of
high-ranking officials, members of National Assembly, representative
of local people and government to NPPs in foreign countries.
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29. 5. Role of the public and
Public relation activities (2/2)
• Government is launching a Project on Public Communication on
Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam.
• Together information dissemination and propagation, support for
people in area to build NPPs, Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is deploying
Project on Establishment of Public Relation Center in Ninh Thuan
province.
• At the same time, Ninh Thuan Province People's Committee is
implementing Project on Migration and Resettlement for the people
living in the NPP project area.
• The aforementioned projects are very important for creating the
consensus and supports of the public in general and local people in
the project area inparticular, especially after the Fukushima accident
in Japan.
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30. Thank you for your attention
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