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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Feb 2, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                Feb 01           Change         US Market                                Feb 01             Change
SET Index                                        959.69              -4.41       Dow Jones                             12,040.16                +148.23
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                      23,708.62           +2,416.38       Nasdaq                                 2,751.19                 +51.11
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                 +1,039.08           +1,922.72       S&P 500                                1,307.59                 +21.47
Thai Bond Market                                 Feb 01           Change         US 10 yr T-note (%)                         3.44                  +6 bp
Total Return Index                               200.55              +0.05       US 2yr T-note (%)                           0.61                  +5 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                    NYMEX crude ($/b)                         90.77                    -1.42
Change (bp)               1m        3m        6m         1yr           2yr         3yr       5yr        7yr       10yr       12yr        14yr        18yr
Feb 01 (%)               2.03      2.10      2.27       2.56          2.96        3.22      3.40       3.63       3.84       4.04        4.14        4.21
Change (bp)                 -2       -1           0         2            0           1         0          0         -1         -1          -1          -1
Interbank Rates           Feb 02       Jan 31              BIBOR             1w          1m          2m         3m        6m           9m         1yr
Overnight (%)               2.25    2.050-2.270            Feb 01         2.26250      2.28891 2.34750 2.40000 2.50000 2.57750 2.67625
Repurchase Rates           1-day          7-day            14-day              1m             SIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Feb 01                    2.25000        2.25000               -                -             Feb 01       0.27100         0.30900           0.46550
THBFIX (Ref.)        1m          2m        3m          6m           9m         1yr            LIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Feb 01             0.79581     0.83360 1.09497 1.43662 1.71374               1.94324          Feb 01       0.26300         0.31050           0.46075
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                   1yr              2yr               3yr              4yr             5yr              7yr              10yr
Feb 02        Bid/Ask                 1.93/1.96        2.65/2.68         3.11/3.15       3.45/3.49        3.71/3.73       3.98/4.03         4.24/4.28
KBank Counter Rates                                 Buying                                Selling                  Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                         Sight Bill                 T/T                         T/T                             Export/Import
USD                                     30.57                  30.67                       30.92                                 0.25/2.70
EUR                                    42.2150                42.3525                     42.8850                               -2.26/1.33
GBP                                    49.2413                49.4025                     49.9925                               -0.72/2.22
JPY                                    0.3735                 0.3746                       0.3816                               -0.24/4.16
KBank Technical Analysis                    Feb 02            Feb 01           Support        Resistance         Trend                 Strategy
THB (Onshore)                                30.78             30.90             30.70           30.90          Sideway        Buy USD near support
JPY                                          81.47             81.31             81.30           82.60          Sideway        Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                     1.3840            1.3833            1.3800           1.3880         Sideway        Buy EUR near support



                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    Manufacturing sector continues to see positive signs in Europe, the U.S. and several economies
                        in Asia, helping to boost the rise in stock markets yesterday
                   •    Thailand’s headline inflation rate was little changed, at 3.03% compared to December’s 3.00%.
                        Core inflation rate edged down slightly from 1.4% to 1.3%
                   •    Inflation rate continued to rise in South Korea and Indonesia, adding to concerns for inflationary
                        pressure in Asia


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD rose to its highest level in about 6 weeks’ time at 1.3844 as positive manufacturing
                        data in both the U.S. and Europe boosted investors’ risk appetite
                    •   USD/THB was little changed at 30.90 and it should continue to remain in range amid the mixed
                        picture – local politics is a negative for THB assets but economic data remained positive


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    The national oil palm policy committee today approved a proposal to import an extra 120,000
                        tonnes of crude palm oil within in the next two months to ease the cooking oil shortage




                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 2, 2011

                                                                                                                                 Elsewhere in Asia, inflation continued to be among the
                    Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                     headlines. Indonesia’s inflation rate rose slightly from
    S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to                                                                         6.96% in December to 7.02% in January. However, the
    their new highs once again since before the financial crisis                                                                 market still expects the central bank to remain pat on policy
                                                                                                                                                         th
    in 2008. While political uncertainties remained in the Arab                                                                  rate on February 4 although it continued to reduce
    nations, the market viewed that situations in Egypt should                                                                   liquidity in the financial market. Meanwhile, South Korea’s
    have a limited impact for the near-term. It would depend                                                                     inflation accelerated from 3.5% to 4.1%.
    also on how things evolve after Mubarak announced his
    plan to step down. Meanwhile, political situation locally is                                                                 Bloomberg news - Asian central banks may need to raise
    not a positive factor for the stock market as well, especially                                                               interest rates further to limit the risk of overheating in their
    after the Cambodian court sentenced two Thai citizens to 6                                                                   economies and prevent a “hard landing,” International
    and 8 years of imprisonment for claimed espionage and                                                                        Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-
    PAD activists, nick-named yellow-shirts, continued to press                                                                  Kahn said yesterday.
    the government for more actions to help the two Thais.

    Manufacturing sector update – U.S. ISM manufacturing
                                                                                                                                            US Treasuries and Thai rates
    index rose to 60.8 from 58.5 in the January’s reading,
    recording the fastest pace of increase in 6 years’ time                                                                      Treasury yields were near a one-month high as the U.S.
    (consensus 58.0). In Europe, the euro zone’s PMI                                                                             prepared to announce today how much it plans to sell in 3-,
    manufacturing index rose from 56.9 to 57.3. In the                                                                           10- and 30-year auctions next week.
    Scandinavia, Sweden’s and Norway’s indices also rose                                                                         The difference between the Federal Reserve’s target for
    higher in January. Even in the U.K where growth is                                                                           overnight loans between banks and 30-year yields widened
    deemed one of the weakest in the region, PMI index                                                                           to 4.37 percentage points, the most in nine months. The
    increased from 58.7 to 62.0, an unexpectedly high rise.                                                                      spread expanded as some economists said jobs reports
                                                                                                                                 today and on Feb. 4 will show employment isn’t growing
    In the larger Emerging Markets, Russia and India’s PMI for                                                                   enough to lead the Fed to increase interest rates, though it
    the manufacturing sector were little changed but China’s                                                                     may lead to faster inflation later.
    index declined in January, likely due to government’s
    measures such as stricter credit rules and liquidity                                                                         Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.44 percent as of 10
    reduction.                                                                                                                   a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data.
      % YoY                                                                                                                      The U.S. will sell $32 billion of 3-year notes, $24 billion of
       10.5                                                                                                60                    10-year debt and $16 billion of 30-year bonds next week,
          10                                                                                               55                    according to 12 of the Fed’s 18 primary dealers, which are
         9.5                                                                                                                     required to bid in Treasury auctions. (Source: Bloomberg)
                                                                                                           50
           9
                                                                                                           45
         8.5                                                                                                                      S&P Index                                                                                              (% )
                                                                                                           40
           8                                                                                                                      1500                                                                                                    4.5
         7.5                                                                                               35                     1400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4.0
           7                                                                                              30                      1300
            Jan-07      Jul-07    Jan-08     Jul-08     Jan-09     Jul-09        Jan-10   Jul-10    Jan-11                        1200                                                                                                    3.5
                                                                                                                                  1100
                     Eurozone unemployment rate (LHS)                Eurozone PMI manufacturing (RHS)                                                                                                                                     3.0
                                                                                                                                  1000
                                                                                                                                    900
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2.5
                                                                                                                                    800
    Thai economic data update – consumer price index                                                                                700                                                                                                   2.0
    increased by 0.5% from December to January, an                                                                                    Mar-08          Sep-08          Mar-09          Sep-09         Mar-10          Sep-10
    acceleration compared to the increase of 0.2% mom from
                                                                                                                                                                 S&P Index                     10yr Treasury yield
    November. This was mainly a result of higher food and
    energy prices. Nevertheless, the headline inflation rate was
                                                                                                                                 Thai interest rate: The market’s concern for unrests in
    little changed, at 3.03% compared to December’s 3.00%.
    Core inflation rate edged down slightly from 1.4% to 1.3%.                                                                   Egypt eased somewhat, gearing the short-dated USD/THB
    Still, we expect an up trend in inflation rates going forward.                                                               forward points slightly further away from zero and into the
    Global commodity prices remained on an up trend and                                                                          positive territory. IRS rates edged up as a result, with the 1-
    continued expansion of the Thai economy is likely to                                                                         year yield testing 1.91% level. Yesterday’s auction of 3-
    warrant continued growth in consumption and investment                                                                       and 6-month BoT bills saw little demand compared to the
    demand.                                                                                                                      1-month bills on the back of policy rate hike expectation.
                                                                                                                                 Bond market was rather quiet but investors continue to
                                                                                                                                 check market pricing for mid-curve bonds.
       10%
         8%                                                                                                                           %                                        THB fixing rates and IRS
         6%                                                                                                                          3.00
         4%                                                                                                                          2.50
         2%                                                                                                                          2.00
         0%
                                                                                                                                     1.50
        -2%
                                                                                                                                     1.00
        -4%
        -6%                                                                                                                          0.50
               05            06              07             08              09             10             11                         0.00
                                                                                                                                               1Wk        1M        2M         3M         6M        9M         1Y      IRS 1Y     IRS 2Y
                                      CPI yoy                                Core CPI yoy
                                                                                                                                                               current                  5-day ago                    3-m ago



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 2, 2011

                                             FX Wrap                                                                                                                    Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                 Tue 01-Feb-11               Mon 31-Jan-11                  % Change
       1.42
       1.40                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       30.90                      30.87                       +0.10
       1.38                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                       81.32                      82.07                        -0.91
       1.36                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                        1.383                      1.369                       +1.04
       1.34
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                       1.6140                     1.6014                       +0.79
       1.32
       1.30                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9354                     0.9440                        -0.91
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                       1.2706                     1.2790                        -0.66
       1.26                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.03                      29.03                        -0.02
          Aug-10          Sep-10          Oct-10        Nov-10         Dec-10          Jan-11         Feb-11
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,114.3                     1,119.3                       -0.44
                                                           EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       44.16                      44.22                        -0.14
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                       9,005                      9,043                        -0.42
    EUR/USD rose to its highest level in about 6 weeks’ time
    at 1.3844 as positive manufacturing data in both the U.S.                                                                           USD/MYR                        3.063                      3.060                       +0.10
    and Europe boosted investors’ risk appetite. The pair                                                                               USD/CNY                        6.594                      6.602                        -0.12
    closed at 1.383, about a per cent higher compared to the                                                                       Source: Reuters
    previous day. At the same time, S&P also reaffirmed                                                                                                              .FX Consensus Forecast
    Spain’s credit rating at AA, citing the government’s
                                                                                                                                                                        Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011
    conviction to bring budget deficit under control.
                                                                                                                                        USD/THB                        30.79                            29.50                   29.00

       38.50                                                                                                80                          USD/JPY                        81.50                            86.00                   89.00
       38.00                                                                                                                            EUR/USD                         1.38                             1.30                    1.30
                                                                                                            82
       37.50                                                                                                                            GBP/USD                         1.61                             1.55                    1.60
       37.00
                                                                                                            84                          USD/CNY                         6.57                             6.45                    6.29
       36.50
                                                                                                                                        USD/SGD                         1.27                             1.27                    1.24
       36.00
                                                                                                            86
       35.50
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                       9,020                            8,900                   8,825
       35.00                                                                                                88                          USD/MYR                         3.04                             3.03                    2.97
            1-Nov                        1-Dec                         1-Jan                        1-Feb                               USD/PHP                        44.05                            42.70                   41.50
                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                   USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)                                           USD/KRW                        1,104                            1,090                   1,050
                                                                                                                                        USD/TWD                        28.94                            29.05                   28.55
    USD/JPY broke lower than previous low near 81.80 to
    81.32 as the dollar weakened against major currencies                                                                               AUD/USD                         1.01                             0.99                    0.97
    yesterday. Today, the yen may weaken slightly as demand                                                                             NZD/USD                         0.78                             0.77                    0.75
    for safe assets decline after Egypt’s unrests sees a more                                                                      Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    positive turn.
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
                                                                                                                                                                               Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
    USD/THB was little changed at 30.90, possibly kept low
    due to the appreciation in the Chinese yuan lately. The                                                                                  USD/THB                           30.79                    29.5                     29.0
    USD/THB should continue to remain in range amid the                                                                                      EUR/THB                           42.61                    40.0                     37.0
    mixed picture on the economy – local politics is a negative                                                                              JPY/THB                           37.78                   34.70                     29.5
    for THB assets but economic data remained positive.
                                                                                                                                             GBP/THB                           49.69                   47.40                     43.7
       31.30                                                                                                                                 CNY/THB                           4.67                     4.78                      4.2
       31.10
       30.90
                                                                                                                                             AUD/THB                           31.15                    27.4                     26.0
       30.70                                                                                                                                 CHF/THB                           32.89                    29.6                     27.7
       30.50                                                                                                                       Source: KBank, Bloomberg
       30.30
       30.10                                                                                                                     KBank NEER Index
       29.90
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         97.99
       29.70
       29.50                                                                                                                     YTD                                                                           + 5.23%
            1-Nov          16-Nov         1-Dec         16-Dec        31-Dec         15-Jan        30-Jan                        vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 4.16%
                                                           USD/THB                                                               vs 1mth ago                                                                   - 2.51%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                 + 0.37%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.00%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                         + 10.17%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 2, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT Bonds                                                                                        Feb 01
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
         LB113A               2.10      2.12           2.14         2.16           2.18              2.20        2.21            2.23         2.00                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
           LB116A             2.70      2.61           2.51         2.42           2.32              2.23        2.14            2.04         1.70
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11303D                          0.08              25,000                      2.04/2.10           2.079380       2.39
          LB11NA              3.59      3.33           3.06         2.79           2.53              2.26        1.99            1.72         1.21
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11506C                          0.25              22,000                     2.1139/2.200         2.159380       1.17
           LB123A             4.18      3.81           3.44         3.07           2.70              2.33        1.96            1.59         0.97
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11804B                          0.50              15,000                      2.28/2.36           2.318630       0.92
          LB12NA              5.36      4.75           4.13         3.52           2.91              2.30        1.69            1.08         0.22
           LB133A             6.02      5.28           4.54         3.80           3.06              2.32        1.58            0.84        -0.14                     CB12202A                          1.00              50,000                     2.6295/2.700         2.682780       1.07
           LB137A             6.58      5.72           4.86         4.00           3.14              2.27        1.41            0.55        -0.56                     Source: ThaiBMA

          LB13OA              7.02      6.06           5.11         4.15           3.19              2.24        1.28            0.32        -0.88                     Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB143A             7.38      6.36           5.34         4.31           3.29              2.27        1.25            0.23        -1.04                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
           LB145A             7.93      6.79           5.64         4.49           3.35              2.20        1.06            -0.09 -1.48                                                              (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB145B             7.93      6.78           5.64         4.49           3.35              2.20        1.06            -0.09 -1.48                           CB11310C                          0.08              25,000                      08-Feb-11           11-Mar-11       -
          LB14DA              8.73      7.39           6.06         4.73           3.40              2.07        0.74            -0.60 -2.18                           CB11512B                          0.25              22,000                      08-Feb-11          12-May-11        -
           LB155A             9.50      7.98           6.46         4.94           3.42              1.90        0.38            -1.14 -2.90                           CB118011A                         0.50              15,000                      08-Feb-11           11-Aug-11       -
           LB157A             9.36      7.88           6.40         4.92           3.44              1.96        0.48            -1.00 -2.73                                                                                                                                               -
                                                                                                                                                                       BOT142A                           3.00              15,000                      11-Feb-11           15-Feb-14
          LB15DA              10.33 8.60               6.88         5.15           3.43              1.70       -0.02 -1.75 -3.72
                                                                                                                                                                       BOT152A                           4.00              15,000                      22-Feb-11           24-Feb-11       -
           LB167A             10.93 9.07               7.22         5.36           3.51              1.66       -0.20 -2.05 -4.15
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
          LB16NA              11.49 9.51               7.52         5.54           3.56              1.57       -0.41 -2.39 -4.62
           LB171A             11.58 9.59               7.60         5.61           3.62              1.63       -0.35 -2.34 -4.58                                      Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
           LB175A             12.11 9.99               7.87         5.76           3.64              1.53       -0.59 -2.70 -5.06                                                                        Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
           LB183A             13.19 10.82 8.44                      6.06           3.69              1.31       -1.06 -3.44 -6.06                                                                         (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB183B             12.90 10.59 8.29                      5.99           3.69              1.38       -0.92 -3.22 -5.77                                      LB316A                            20.62             6,000                       02-Feb-11           20-Jun-31       -
           LB191A             13.86 11.32 8.78                      6.24           3.71              1.17       -1.37 -3.91 -6.69                                      LB15DA                            5.32              10,000                      09-Feb-11           11-Dec-15       -
           LB196A             14.82 12.04 9.27                      6.49           3.72              0.95       -1.82 -4.59 -7.61                                      LB416A                            30.65             5,000                       16-Feb-11           14-Jun-41       -
           LB198A             14.63 11.91 9.20                      6.48           3.77              1.06       -1.66 -4.37 -7.33                                      LB25DA                            15.05             8,000                       23-Feb-11           12-Dec-25       -
          LB19DA              14.92 12.14 9.36                      6.59           3.81              1.04       -1.73 -4.51 -7.53                                      Source: ThaiBMA
           LB213A             16.05 13.01 9.97                      6.94           3.90              0.87       -2.17 -5.20 -8.48
           LB214A             15.93 12.93 9.93                      6.93           3.94              0.94       -2.05 -5.05 -8.29
          LB22NA              18.04 14.54 11.05 7.56                               4.07              0.58       -2.91 -6.39 -10.13
           LB233A             18.10 14.60 11.10 7.60                               4.11              0.61       -2.88 -6.37 -10.11                                     * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
                                                                                                                                                                       during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
           LB236A             19.55 15.69 11.83 7.98                               4.12              0.27       -3.58 -7.43 -11.53
                                                                                                                                                                       cash balance.
           LB244A             19.67 15.79 11.91 8.03                               4.16              0.29       -3.58 -7.45 -11.57
          LB24DA              20.28 16.26 12.23 8.21                               4.19              0.18       -3.84 -7.85 -12.11
           LB267A             20.79 16.64 12.50 8.36                               4.23              0.09       -4.04 -8.17 -12.55
           LB283A             22.03 17.58 13.14 8.69                               4.26          -0.18 -4.62 -9.05 -13.73
           LB296A             23.74 18.87 14.00 9.13                               4.27          -0.59 -5.45 -10.31 -15.41
           LB383A             27.97 22.05 16.14 10.24 4.34                                       -1.56 -7.45 -13.33 -19.46
           LB396A             29.30 23.06 16.82 10.58 4.35                                       -1.87 -8.09 -14.31 -20.76
          Average             12.99 10.63 8.28                      5.93           3.58              1.23       -1.12 -3.47 -6.07
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 2, 2011

                      Economic News Update
    120,000 tonne palm oil import approved:
    The national oil palm policy committee today approved a
    proposal to import an extra 120,000 tonnes of crude palm
    oil within in the next two months to ease the cooking oil
    shortage.

    The first batch of 30,000 tonnes of imported palm oil
    previously approved failed to meet the shortfall, Deputy
    Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said after the
    committee’s meeting on Tuesday.

    Mr Suthep, the committee’s chairman, said the extra
    120,000 tonnes of palm oil should help end the shortage as
    fresh domestic palm oil supplies should be available from
    around the end of next month.

    He believed the Commerce Ministry should be able to
    manage the new import quota to ensure it helped both
    consumers and businesses, especially in the food industry.

    The committee would continue to monitor oil palm supplies
    and re-assess the situation every 15 days.

    Energy Minister Wannarat Channukul said over the next
    month or so the government would slow down the
    production of bio-diesel using palm oil, to ensure a larger
    amount was available for refining as household cooking oil
    and for the (Source: Bangkok Post)




                                                                                                                                                            Market Strategists:
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 2, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       02/01/2011 06:00                      SK             Consumer Price Index (MoM)                                             JAN                  0.70%                  0.90%                  0.60%                      --
       02/01/2011 06:00                      SK             Consumer Price Index (YoY)                                             JAN                  3.80%                  4.10%                  3.50%                      --
       02/01/2011 06:00                      SK             Core Consumer Price Index(YoY)                                         JAN                     --                  2.60%                  2.00%                      --
       02/01/2011 07:00                      SK             HSBC Manufacturing PMI                                                 JAN                     --                   53.5                   53.9                      --
       02/01/2011 07:30                      AU             House Price Index QoQ                                                   4Q                  -0.20%                 0.70%                  0.10%                   -0.30%
       02/01/2011 07:30                      AU             House Price Index YoY                                                   4Q                  5.60%                  5.80%                 11.50%                   10.80%

       02/01/2011 08:00                      CH             PMI Manufacturing                                                      JAN                    53.5                  52.9                   53.9                      --
       02/01/2011 08:00                      SK             Ext Trade - Export (YoY)                                               JAN                  39.20%                46.00%                 23.10%                   22.60%
       02/01/2011 08:00                      SK             Ext Trade - Imports (YoY)                                              JAN                  26.60%                32.90%                 23.30%                   21.70%
       02/01/2011 08:00                      SK             Ext Trade - Balance in US$ Mln                                         JAN                   2520                   2962                   3743                     4089
       02/01/2011 08:30                      JN             Labor Cash Earnings YoY                                                DEC                  1.00%                  -0.40%                -0.20%                    0.20%
       02/01/2011 09:30                      CH             HSBC Manufacturing PMI                                                 JAN                     --                   54.5                   54.4                      --
       02/01/2011 10:30                      AU             RBA CASH TARGET                                                      Feb-01                 4.75%                  4.75%                  4.75%                      --
       02/01/2011 10:30                      TH             Consumer Price Index (YoY)                                             JAN                  3.00%                  3.03%                  3.00%                      --
       02/01/2011 10:30                      TH             Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM)                                         JAN                  0.50%                  0.54%                  0.20%                      --
       02/01/2011 10:30                      TH             Core CPI (YoY)                                                         JAN                  1.40%                  1.32%                  1.40%                      --
       02/01/2011 11:00                      ID             Total Trade Balance                                                    DEC                 $2098M                 $3694M                 $2267M                  $2626M
       02/01/2011 11:00                      ID             Inflation (YoY)                                                        JAN                  6.81%                  7.02%                  6.96%                      --
       02/01/2011 11:00                      ID             Exports (YoY)                                                          DEC                  16.60%                25.70%                 42.30%                   45.10%
       02/01/2011 11:00                      ID             Core Inflation (YoY)                                                   JAN                  4.30%                  4.18%                  4.28%                      --
       02/01/2011 11:00                      ID             Total Imports (YoY)                                                    DEC                  29.00%                27.10%                 48.30%                   47.60%
       02/01/2011 12:30                      AU             RBA Commodity Price Index Au                                           JAN                     --                    100                   94.6                     95.3
       02/01/2011 12:30                      AU             RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY%                                           JAN                     --                 48.70%                 47.70%                   48.80%
       02/01/2011 12:30                      IN             Exports YoY%                                                           DEC                     --                 36.40%                 26.50%                      --
       02/01/2011 12:30                      IN             Imports YoY%                                                           DEC                     --                 -11.10%                11.20%                      --
       02/01/2011 14:00                      UK             Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM)                                         JAN                  -0.40%                 -0.10%                 0.40%                      --
       02/01/2011 14:00                      UK             Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY)                                         JAN                  -1.00%                 -1.10%                 0.40%                      --
       02/01/2011 14:45                      FR             Producer Prices (MoM)                                                  DEC                  0.60%                  1.00%                  0.40%                      --
       02/01/2011 14:45                      FR             Producer Prices (YoY)                                                  DEC                  5.00%                  5.40%                  4.50%                      --
       02/01/2011 15:45                       IT            PMI Manufacturing                                                      JAN                    54.8                  56.6                   54.7                      --
       02/01/2011 15:50                      FR             PMI Manufacturing                                                     JAN F                   54.3                  54.9                   54.3                      --
       02/01/2011 15:55                      GE             Unemployment Rate (s.a)                                                JAN                  7.50%                  7.40%                  7.50%                      --
       02/01/2011 15:55                      GE             PMI Manufacturing                                                     JAN F                   60.2                  60.5                   60.2                      --
       02/01/2011 16:00                       IT            Unemployment Rate (SA)                                               DEC P                  8.70%                  8.60%                  8.70%                    8.60%
       02/01/2011 16:00                      EC             PMI Manufacturing                                                     JAN F                   56.9                  57.3                   56.9                      --
       02/01/2011 16:30                      UK             PMI Manufacturing                                                      JAN                     58                     62                   58.3                     58.7
       02/01/2011 17:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate                                            DEC                  10.10%                10.00%                 10.10%                   10.00%
       02/01/2011 20:30                      SI             Purchasing Managers Index                                              JAN                    50.3                  50.5                   50.7                      --
       02/01/2011 22:00                      US             Construction Spending MoM                                              DEC                  0.10%                  -2.50%                 0.40%                   -0.20%
       02/01/2011 22:00                      US             ISM Manufacturing                                                      JAN                     58                   60.8                    57                      58.5
       02/01/2011 22:00                      US             ISM Prices Paid                                                        JAN                    73.5                  81.5                   72.5                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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K bank daily feb 2

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Feb 2, 2011 Thai Stock Market Feb 01 Change US Market Feb 01 Change SET Index 959.69 -4.41 Dow Jones 12,040.16 +148.23 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 23,708.62 +2,416.38 Nasdaq 2,751.19 +51.11 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +1,039.08 +1,922.72 S&P 500 1,307.59 +21.47 Thai Bond Market Feb 01 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.44 +6 bp Total Return Index 200.55 +0.05 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.61 +5 bp Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 90.77 -1.42 Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Feb 01 (%) 2.03 2.10 2.27 2.56 2.96 3.22 3.40 3.63 3.84 4.04 4.14 4.21 Change (bp) -2 -1 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 Interbank Rates Feb 02 Jan 31 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.270 Feb 01 2.26250 2.28891 2.34750 2.40000 2.50000 2.57750 2.67625 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 01 2.25000 2.25000 - - Feb 01 0.27100 0.30900 0.46550 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 01 0.79581 0.83360 1.09497 1.43662 1.71374 1.94324 Feb 01 0.26300 0.31050 0.46075 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Feb 02 Bid/Ask 1.93/1.96 2.65/2.68 3.11/3.15 3.45/3.49 3.71/3.73 3.98/4.03 4.24/4.28 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.57 30.67 30.92 0.25/2.70 EUR 42.2150 42.3525 42.8850 -2.26/1.33 GBP 49.2413 49.4025 49.9925 -0.72/2.22 JPY 0.3735 0.3746 0.3816 -0.24/4.16 KBank Technical Analysis Feb 02 Feb 01 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.78 30.90 30.70 30.90 Sideway Buy USD near support JPY 81.47 81.31 81.30 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.3840 1.3833 1.3800 1.3880 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Manufacturing sector continues to see positive signs in Europe, the U.S. and several economies in Asia, helping to boost the rise in stock markets yesterday • Thailand’s headline inflation rate was little changed, at 3.03% compared to December’s 3.00%. Core inflation rate edged down slightly from 1.4% to 1.3% • Inflation rate continued to rise in South Korea and Indonesia, adding to concerns for inflationary pressure in Asia FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD rose to its highest level in about 6 weeks’ time at 1.3844 as positive manufacturing data in both the U.S. and Europe boosted investors’ risk appetite • USD/THB was little changed at 30.90 and it should continue to remain in range amid the mixed picture – local politics is a negative for THB assets but economic data remained positive Economic News Update • The national oil palm policy committee today approved a proposal to import an extra 120,000 tonnes of crude palm oil within in the next two months to ease the cooking oil shortage Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Elsewhere in Asia, inflation continued to be among the Macro and Market Outlook headlines. Indonesia’s inflation rate rose slightly from S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 6.96% in December to 7.02% in January. However, the their new highs once again since before the financial crisis market still expects the central bank to remain pat on policy th in 2008. While political uncertainties remained in the Arab rate on February 4 although it continued to reduce nations, the market viewed that situations in Egypt should liquidity in the financial market. Meanwhile, South Korea’s have a limited impact for the near-term. It would depend inflation accelerated from 3.5% to 4.1%. also on how things evolve after Mubarak announced his plan to step down. Meanwhile, political situation locally is Bloomberg news - Asian central banks may need to raise not a positive factor for the stock market as well, especially interest rates further to limit the risk of overheating in their after the Cambodian court sentenced two Thai citizens to 6 economies and prevent a “hard landing,” International and 8 years of imprisonment for claimed espionage and Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss- PAD activists, nick-named yellow-shirts, continued to press Kahn said yesterday. the government for more actions to help the two Thais. Manufacturing sector update – U.S. ISM manufacturing US Treasuries and Thai rates index rose to 60.8 from 58.5 in the January’s reading, recording the fastest pace of increase in 6 years’ time Treasury yields were near a one-month high as the U.S. (consensus 58.0). In Europe, the euro zone’s PMI prepared to announce today how much it plans to sell in 3-, manufacturing index rose from 56.9 to 57.3. In the 10- and 30-year auctions next week. Scandinavia, Sweden’s and Norway’s indices also rose The difference between the Federal Reserve’s target for higher in January. Even in the U.K where growth is overnight loans between banks and 30-year yields widened deemed one of the weakest in the region, PMI index to 4.37 percentage points, the most in nine months. The increased from 58.7 to 62.0, an unexpectedly high rise. spread expanded as some economists said jobs reports today and on Feb. 4 will show employment isn’t growing In the larger Emerging Markets, Russia and India’s PMI for enough to lead the Fed to increase interest rates, though it the manufacturing sector were little changed but China’s may lead to faster inflation later. index declined in January, likely due to government’s measures such as stricter credit rules and liquidity Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.44 percent as of 10 reduction. a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. % YoY The U.S. will sell $32 billion of 3-year notes, $24 billion of 10.5 60 10-year debt and $16 billion of 30-year bonds next week, 10 55 according to 12 of the Fed’s 18 primary dealers, which are 9.5 required to bid in Treasury auctions. (Source: Bloomberg) 50 9 45 8.5 S&P Index (% ) 40 8 1500 4.5 7.5 35 1400 4.0 7 30 1300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 1200 3.5 1100 Eurozone unemployment rate (LHS) Eurozone PMI manufacturing (RHS) 3.0 1000 900 2.5 800 Thai economic data update – consumer price index 700 2.0 increased by 0.5% from December to January, an Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 acceleration compared to the increase of 0.2% mom from S&P Index 10yr Treasury yield November. This was mainly a result of higher food and energy prices. Nevertheless, the headline inflation rate was Thai interest rate: The market’s concern for unrests in little changed, at 3.03% compared to December’s 3.00%. Core inflation rate edged down slightly from 1.4% to 1.3%. Egypt eased somewhat, gearing the short-dated USD/THB Still, we expect an up trend in inflation rates going forward. forward points slightly further away from zero and into the Global commodity prices remained on an up trend and positive territory. IRS rates edged up as a result, with the 1- continued expansion of the Thai economy is likely to year yield testing 1.91% level. Yesterday’s auction of 3- warrant continued growth in consumption and investment and 6-month BoT bills saw little demand compared to the demand. 1-month bills on the back of policy rate hike expectation. Bond market was rather quiet but investors continue to check market pricing for mid-curve bonds. 10% 8% % THB fixing rates and IRS 6% 3.00 4% 2.50 2% 2.00 0% 1.50 -2% 1.00 -4% -6% 0.50 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 0.00 1Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y IRS 1Y IRS 2Y CPI yoy Core CPI yoy current 5-day ago 3-m ago 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Tue 01-Feb-11 Mon 31-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.90 30.87 +0.10 1.38 USD/JPY 81.32 82.07 -0.91 1.36 EUR/USD 1.383 1.369 +1.04 1.34 GBP/USD 1.6140 1.6014 +0.79 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9354 0.9440 -0.91 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2706 1.2790 -0.66 1.26 USD/TWD 29.03 29.03 -0.02 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 USD/KRW 1,114.3 1,119.3 -0.44 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.16 44.22 -0.14 USD/IDR 9,005 9,043 -0.42 EUR/USD rose to its highest level in about 6 weeks’ time at 1.3844 as positive manufacturing data in both the U.S. USD/MYR 3.063 3.060 +0.10 and Europe boosted investors’ risk appetite. The pair USD/CNY 6.594 6.602 -0.12 closed at 1.383, about a per cent higher compared to the Source: Reuters previous day. At the same time, S&P also reaffirmed .FX Consensus Forecast Spain’s credit rating at AA, citing the government’s Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 conviction to bring budget deficit under control. USD/THB 30.79 29.50 29.00 38.50 80 USD/JPY 81.50 86.00 89.00 38.00 EUR/USD 1.38 1.30 1.30 82 37.50 GBP/USD 1.61 1.55 1.60 37.00 84 USD/CNY 6.57 6.45 6.29 36.50 USD/SGD 1.27 1.27 1.24 36.00 86 35.50 USD/IDR 9,020 8,900 8,825 35.00 88 USD/MYR 3.04 3.03 2.97 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb USD/PHP 44.05 42.70 41.50 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/KRW 1,104 1,090 1,050 USD/TWD 28.94 29.05 28.55 USD/JPY broke lower than previous low near 81.80 to 81.32 as the dollar weakened against major currencies AUD/USD 1.01 0.99 0.97 yesterday. Today, the yen may weaken slightly as demand NZD/USD 0.78 0.77 0.75 for safe assets decline after Egypt’s unrests sees a more Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB positive turn. Currency Pair Targets Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 USD/THB was little changed at 30.90, possibly kept low due to the appreciation in the Chinese yuan lately. The USD/THB 30.79 29.5 29.0 USD/THB should continue to remain in range amid the EUR/THB 42.61 40.0 37.0 mixed picture on the economy – local politics is a negative JPY/THB 37.78 34.70 29.5 for THB assets but economic data remained positive. GBP/THB 49.69 47.40 43.7 31.30 CNY/THB 4.67 4.78 4.2 31.10 30.90 AUD/THB 31.15 27.4 26.0 30.70 CHF/THB 32.89 29.6 27.7 30.50 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 30.30 30.10 KBank NEER Index 29.90 Current 97.99 29.70 29.50 YTD + 5.23% 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan vs 52 weeks ago + 4.16% USD/THB vs 1mth ago - 2.51% vs 1 week ago + 0.37% vs 1 day ago + 0.00% vs long term average + 10.17% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Feb 01 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.21 2.23 2.00 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.70 2.61 2.51 2.42 2.32 2.23 2.14 2.04 1.70 CB11303D 0.08 25,000 2.04/2.10 2.079380 2.39 LB11NA 3.59 3.33 3.06 2.79 2.53 2.26 1.99 1.72 1.21 CB11506C 0.25 22,000 2.1139/2.200 2.159380 1.17 LB123A 4.18 3.81 3.44 3.07 2.70 2.33 1.96 1.59 0.97 CB11804B 0.50 15,000 2.28/2.36 2.318630 0.92 LB12NA 5.36 4.75 4.13 3.52 2.91 2.30 1.69 1.08 0.22 LB133A 6.02 5.28 4.54 3.80 3.06 2.32 1.58 0.84 -0.14 CB12202A 1.00 50,000 2.6295/2.700 2.682780 1.07 LB137A 6.58 5.72 4.86 4.00 3.14 2.27 1.41 0.55 -0.56 Source: ThaiBMA LB13OA 7.02 6.06 5.11 4.15 3.19 2.24 1.28 0.32 -0.88 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB143A 7.38 6.36 5.34 4.31 3.29 2.27 1.25 0.23 -1.04 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB145A 7.93 6.79 5.64 4.49 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.48 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB145B 7.93 6.78 5.64 4.49 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.48 CB11310C 0.08 25,000 08-Feb-11 11-Mar-11 - LB14DA 8.73 7.39 6.06 4.73 3.40 2.07 0.74 -0.60 -2.18 CB11512B 0.25 22,000 08-Feb-11 12-May-11 - LB155A 9.50 7.98 6.46 4.94 3.42 1.90 0.38 -1.14 -2.90 CB118011A 0.50 15,000 08-Feb-11 11-Aug-11 - LB157A 9.36 7.88 6.40 4.92 3.44 1.96 0.48 -1.00 -2.73 - BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 LB15DA 10.33 8.60 6.88 5.15 3.43 1.70 -0.02 -1.75 -3.72 BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 - LB167A 10.93 9.07 7.22 5.36 3.51 1.66 -0.20 -2.05 -4.15 Source: ThaiBMA LB16NA 11.49 9.51 7.52 5.54 3.56 1.57 -0.41 -2.39 -4.62 LB171A 11.58 9.59 7.60 5.61 3.62 1.63 -0.35 -2.34 -4.58 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB175A 12.11 9.99 7.87 5.76 3.64 1.53 -0.59 -2.70 -5.06 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB183A 13.19 10.82 8.44 6.06 3.69 1.31 -1.06 -3.44 -6.06 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB183B 12.90 10.59 8.29 5.99 3.69 1.38 -0.92 -3.22 -5.77 LB316A 20.62 6,000 02-Feb-11 20-Jun-31 - LB191A 13.86 11.32 8.78 6.24 3.71 1.17 -1.37 -3.91 -6.69 LB15DA 5.32 10,000 09-Feb-11 11-Dec-15 - LB196A 14.82 12.04 9.27 6.49 3.72 0.95 -1.82 -4.59 -7.61 LB416A 30.65 5,000 16-Feb-11 14-Jun-41 - LB198A 14.63 11.91 9.20 6.48 3.77 1.06 -1.66 -4.37 -7.33 LB25DA 15.05 8,000 23-Feb-11 12-Dec-25 - LB19DA 14.92 12.14 9.36 6.59 3.81 1.04 -1.73 -4.51 -7.53 Source: ThaiBMA LB213A 16.05 13.01 9.97 6.94 3.90 0.87 -2.17 -5.20 -8.48 LB214A 15.93 12.93 9.93 6.93 3.94 0.94 -2.05 -5.05 -8.29 LB22NA 18.04 14.54 11.05 7.56 4.07 0.58 -2.91 -6.39 -10.13 LB233A 18.10 14.60 11.10 7.60 4.11 0.61 -2.88 -6.37 -10.11 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB236A 19.55 15.69 11.83 7.98 4.12 0.27 -3.58 -7.43 -11.53 cash balance. LB244A 19.67 15.79 11.91 8.03 4.16 0.29 -3.58 -7.45 -11.57 LB24DA 20.28 16.26 12.23 8.21 4.19 0.18 -3.84 -7.85 -12.11 LB267A 20.79 16.64 12.50 8.36 4.23 0.09 -4.04 -8.17 -12.55 LB283A 22.03 17.58 13.14 8.69 4.26 -0.18 -4.62 -9.05 -13.73 LB296A 23.74 18.87 14.00 9.13 4.27 -0.59 -5.45 -10.31 -15.41 LB383A 27.97 22.05 16.14 10.24 4.34 -1.56 -7.45 -13.33 -19.46 LB396A 29.30 23.06 16.82 10.58 4.35 -1.87 -8.09 -14.31 -20.76 Average 12.99 10.63 8.28 5.93 3.58 1.23 -1.12 -3.47 -6.07 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Economic News Update 120,000 tonne palm oil import approved: The national oil palm policy committee today approved a proposal to import an extra 120,000 tonnes of crude palm oil within in the next two months to ease the cooking oil shortage. The first batch of 30,000 tonnes of imported palm oil previously approved failed to meet the shortfall, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said after the committee’s meeting on Tuesday. Mr Suthep, the committee’s chairman, said the extra 120,000 tonnes of palm oil should help end the shortage as fresh domestic palm oil supplies should be available from around the end of next month. He believed the Commerce Ministry should be able to manage the new import quota to ensure it helped both consumers and businesses, especially in the food industry. The committee would continue to monitor oil palm supplies and re-assess the situation every 15 days. Energy Minister Wannarat Channukul said over the next month or so the government would slow down the production of bio-diesel using palm oil, to ensure a larger amount was available for refining as household cooking oil and for the (Source: Bangkok Post) Market Strategists: Nalin Chutchotitham Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Consumer Price Index (MoM) JAN 0.70% 0.90% 0.60% -- 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.80% 4.10% 3.50% -- 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Core Consumer Price Index(YoY) JAN -- 2.60% 2.00% -- 02/01/2011 07:00 SK HSBC Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 53.5 53.9 -- 02/01/2011 07:30 AU House Price Index QoQ 4Q -0.20% 0.70% 0.10% -0.30% 02/01/2011 07:30 AU House Price Index YoY 4Q 5.60% 5.80% 11.50% 10.80% 02/01/2011 08:00 CH PMI Manufacturing JAN 53.5 52.9 53.9 -- 02/01/2011 08:00 SK Ext Trade - Export (YoY) JAN 39.20% 46.00% 23.10% 22.60% 02/01/2011 08:00 SK Ext Trade - Imports (YoY) JAN 26.60% 32.90% 23.30% 21.70% 02/01/2011 08:00 SK Ext Trade - Balance in US$ Mln JAN 2520 2962 3743 4089 02/01/2011 08:30 JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY DEC 1.00% -0.40% -0.20% 0.20% 02/01/2011 09:30 CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 54.5 54.4 -- 02/01/2011 10:30 AU RBA CASH TARGET Feb-01 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% -- 02/01/2011 10:30 TH Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.00% 3.03% 3.00% -- 02/01/2011 10:30 TH Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM) JAN 0.50% 0.54% 0.20% -- 02/01/2011 10:30 TH Core CPI (YoY) JAN 1.40% 1.32% 1.40% -- 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Total Trade Balance DEC $2098M $3694M $2267M $2626M 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Inflation (YoY) JAN 6.81% 7.02% 6.96% -- 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Exports (YoY) DEC 16.60% 25.70% 42.30% 45.10% 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Core Inflation (YoY) JAN 4.30% 4.18% 4.28% -- 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Total Imports (YoY) DEC 29.00% 27.10% 48.30% 47.60% 02/01/2011 12:30 AU RBA Commodity Price Index Au JAN -- 100 94.6 95.3 02/01/2011 12:30 AU RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY% JAN -- 48.70% 47.70% 48.80% 02/01/2011 12:30 IN Exports YoY% DEC -- 36.40% 26.50% -- 02/01/2011 12:30 IN Imports YoY% DEC -- -11.10% 11.20% -- 02/01/2011 14:00 UK Nat'wide House prices sa (MoM) JAN -0.40% -0.10% 0.40% -- 02/01/2011 14:00 UK Nat'wide House prices nsa(YoY) JAN -1.00% -1.10% 0.40% -- 02/01/2011 14:45 FR Producer Prices (MoM) DEC 0.60% 1.00% 0.40% -- 02/01/2011 14:45 FR Producer Prices (YoY) DEC 5.00% 5.40% 4.50% -- 02/01/2011 15:45 IT PMI Manufacturing JAN 54.8 56.6 54.7 -- 02/01/2011 15:50 FR PMI Manufacturing JAN F 54.3 54.9 54.3 -- 02/01/2011 15:55 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) JAN 7.50% 7.40% 7.50% -- 02/01/2011 15:55 GE PMI Manufacturing JAN F 60.2 60.5 60.2 -- 02/01/2011 16:00 IT Unemployment Rate (SA) DEC P 8.70% 8.60% 8.70% 8.60% 02/01/2011 16:00 EC PMI Manufacturing JAN F 56.9 57.3 56.9 -- 02/01/2011 16:30 UK PMI Manufacturing JAN 58 62 58.3 58.7 02/01/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate DEC 10.10% 10.00% 10.10% 10.00% 02/01/2011 20:30 SI Purchasing Managers Index JAN 50.3 50.5 50.7 -- 02/01/2011 22:00 US Construction Spending MoM DEC 0.10% -2.50% 0.40% -0.20% 02/01/2011 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing JAN 58 60.8 57 58.5 02/01/2011 22:00 US ISM Prices Paid JAN 73.5 81.5 72.5 -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.