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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Feb 8, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                                            US Market
                                                                         Feb 07                    Change             Feb 07             Change
SET Index                                                                985.63
                                                                             Dow Jones                +0.85        12,161.63                 +69.48
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                               24,267.71
                                                                             Nasdaq               -8,448.65         2,783.99                 +14.69
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                                          -2,972.24
                                                                             S&P 500              -3,251.34         1,319.05                   +8.18
Thai Bond Market                                                         Feb 07
                                                                             US 10 yr T-note (%)   Change                3.64                   -1 bp
Total Return Index                                                       200.53
                                                                             US 2yr T-note (%)        +0.00              0.76                  +1 bp
                                                                             NYMEX crude ($/b)                         87.48                    -1.55
Change (bp)             1m        3m        6m        1yr          2yr         3yr       5yr        7yr       10yr       12yr        14yr        18yr
Feb 07 (%)             2.04      2.12      2.29      2.58         2.98        3.22      3.47       3.64       3.86       4.05        4.15        4.21
Chng 1D (bp)               0        0          0         0           2           0         7          2          1           1          0           0
Chng 5D (bp)              -1        1          2         4           2           1         7          1          1           0          0          -1
Interbank Rates         Feb 08       Feb 04             BIBOR            1w          1m          2m         3m        6m           9m         1yr
Overnight (%)             2.25    2.000-2.210           Feb 07        2.26250      2.29016 2.35375 2.40500 2.52891 2.59875 2.69875
Repurchase Rates         1-day          7-day           14-day             1m             SIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Feb 07                  2.25000        2.25000              -               -             Feb 07       0.26625         0.30125           0.46188
THBFIX (Ref.)       1m         2m        3m         6m          9m         1yr            LIBOR          1m               3m               6m
Feb 07            1.02840    1.06334 1.24500 1.57140 1.84154             2.04292          Feb 07       0.26375         0.31200           0.46285
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                 1yr             2yr              3yr              4yr             5yr              7yr              10yr
Feb 08       Bid/Ask                1.98/2.02       2.71/2.75        3.20/3.24       3.53/3.57        3.78/3.82       4.08/4.12         4.33/4.37
KBank Counter Rates                              Buying                               Selling                  Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                       Sight Bill                T/T                        T/T                             Export/Import
USD                                   30.44                 30.54                      30.79                                 0.50/3.24
EUR                                  41.2325               41.3675                    41.8925                               -0.72/2.26
GBP                                  48.9650               49.1263                    49.7138                                0.03/2.60
JPY                                  0.3679                0.3690                      0.3758                                0.32/4.63
KBank Technical Analysis                  Feb 08           Feb 07          Support        Resistance         Trend                 Strategy
THB (Onshore)                              30.66            30.72            30.60           30.75          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                        82.29            82.31            82.00           82.60          Sideway        Buy USD near support
EUR/USD                                   1.3604           1.3586           1.3510           1.3620         Sideway       Sell EUR near resistance




                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    Global stocks closed higher on Monday while expectations on increased M&A activities and
                        positive earning results in the U.S. also helped to push the stock indices to near 2.5-year highs
                   •    Crude oil price fell $1.5/barrel yesterday to close near its 2-week low after there had been no
                        disruptions of the fuel’s transport in the Middle East
                   •    European economic data were mixed – Sentix investor confidence for euro zone rose to the
                        highest level in 3 years’ time while Germany’s industrial orders fell unexpectedly


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD was little changed at 1.358. The euro rebounded during Asian hours, but closed lower
                        again after Germany showed weaker-than-expected industrial orders
                    •   USD/THB closed slightly lower to 30.71, in line with the strengthening of Asian currencies after
                        economic data in the U.S. lifted risk appetite


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    Businesspeople are worried the border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia in Si Sa Ket
                        province will hurt trade and investment sentiment as well as dim the tourism recovery


                    Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 8, 2011

                                                                                                                                 Nov). The Sentix index rose to 16.7 from 10.6 in January,
                    Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                     recording its highest since September 2007.
       1100                                                                                                600
                                                                                                                                 Asia update – Indonesia’s economy expanded by 6.9%
       1000
                                                                                                           550
                                                                                                                                 yoy in Q4, more than the market’s forecast of 6.2%.
                                                                                                                                 meanwhile, India’s authorities said the economy may
         900
                                                                                                                                 expand by 8.6% for the four quarters ending in March
                                                                                                           500
         800                                                                                                                     2011.
                                                                                                           450
         700                                                                                                                     This week – apart from the end-week economic data, 4 of
                                                                                                                                 Federal Reserve Open-Market committee voting members
         600                                                                                              400
                                                                                                                                 are scheduled to speak this week. The market is likely to
           Aug-09         Nov-09         Feb-10        May-10           Aug-10        Nov-10        Feb-11
                                                                                                                                 focus on U.S. economic outlook and the more details of the
                               SET Index (LHS)                  MSCI Asia ex Japan Index (RHS)                                   progress on Q.E. 2 due to light economic releases this
    Global stocks closed higher on Monday, boosted by                                                                            week. Also, look out for comments from the BOE with
    optimism concerning the U.S. economic recovery,                                                                              regards to inflation concerns in the U.K.
    especially after unemployment rate was shown to be at
    9.0% last Friday, a decline from 9.4% a month earlier.
    Expectations on increased M&A activities and positive                                                                                   US Treasuries and Thai rates
    earning results in the U.S. also helped to push the Dow
    and S&P 500 to near their 2.5-year highs. Asian stocks
    climbed after having closed for many days for Chinese                                                                        Treasury yields were near a nine-month high as the U.S.
    New Year. The SET Index managed to gain slightly despite                                                                     prepared to sell $32 billion of 3-year notes today, to be
    net-selling by foreigners yesterday.                                                                                         followed by offerings 10-year securities tomorrow and 30-
                                                                                                                                 year bonds on Feb. 10.
    CNBC News: U.S. outstanding consumer installment credit                                                                      Investors have pushed rates up for four months on signs
    shot upward in December as shoppers boosted their credit-                                                                    ofgrowth in the U.S. economy , including a drop in the
    card debt for the first time in more than two years,                                                                         unemployment rate to a 21-month low in January. Reports
    according to the Federal Reserve. Total credit outstanding                                                                   this week will show consumer confidence climbed and
    climbed $6.1 billion, nearly triple the $2.3 billion that Wall                                                               initial claims for jobless benefits fell, economists said.
    Street economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast, after
    an upwardly revised $2 billion increase in November.                                                                         Ten-year notes yielded 3.64 percent at 9:25 a.m. in Tokyo,
     $/ounce                                                                                          $/barrel                   according to BGCantor Market Data. The 2.625 percent
                                                                                                                                 security maturing in November 2020 traded at a price of 91
       1500                                                                                              95.0
       1450
                                                                                                                                 23/32. The rate climbed to 3.69 percent yesterday, the
       1400
                                                                                                         90.0                    most since May 4. (Source: Bloomberg)
       1350                                                                                              85.0                    Thai interest rate:
       1300
       1250                                                                                              80.0
                                                                                                                                   %                                                 Interest rate swaps
       1200
                                                                                                         75.0                        4.0
       1150
       1100                                                                                              70.0                        3.5
          Jun-10      Jul-10    Aug-10     Sep-10     Oct-10    Nov-10 Dec-10         Jan-11    Feb-11                               3.0
                                  Gold prices (LHS)                  WTI oil price (RHS)                                             2.5

    Crude oil price fell $1.5/barrel yesterday to close near its 2-                                                                  2.0
    week low after there had been no disruptions of the fuel’s                                                                       1.5
    transport in the Middle East despite the ongoing political                                                                       1.0
    unrest in Egypt and increased political risks in several other                                                                      1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan 30-Jan
    Arab nations. Gold price seems to be stabilizing somewhat,
                                                                                                                                                                        1Y                       2Y                              3Y                          5Y
    still capped by investors’ stronger appetite for risky assets
    such as equities as signs of U.S. recovery accumulate.
                                                                                                                                 In Asia, the market continues to price in further rate hikes
                                                                                                                                 by the central banks. Economies with the least rate hikes
                                              Eurozone Confidence Indicators
                                                                                                                                 since the 2008 financial crisis are deemed to raise their
         50                                                                                              120
         40
                                                                                                                                 interest rates by the largest amount this year (Indonesia,
         30
                                                                                                         110                     Philippines, South Korea). Consumer price inflation has
         20                                                                                                                      firmed while economic growth outlook remained positive.
                                                                                                         100
         10
          0                                                                                              90                            bp                                                                                                                                             %
        -10                                                                                                                       200                                                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                         80                       175
        -20
                                                                                                                                  150                                                                                                                                                     7.5
        -30
                                                                                                         70                       125
        -40            Sentix Investor confidence (left axis)
                       European Commission Economic confidence (right axis)                                                       100                                                                                                                                                     5
        -50                                                                                              60
                                                                                                                                   75
               03       04         05         06        07         08            09        10       11                             50                                                                                                                                                     2.5
                                                                                                                                   25
    European economic data yesterday were mixed – Sentix                                                                            0                                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           South Korea




    (Germany-based research institute) investor confidence for
                                                                                                                                                                                      Thailand




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Singapore




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Indonesia
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Philippines
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Hong Kong
                                                                                                                                            Japan




                                                                                                                                                                         Australia
                                                                                                                                                    Taiwan




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              India
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     China
                                                                                                                                                             Malaysia




    euro zone rose to the highest level in 3 years’ time in
    February while Germany’s industrial orders fell
    unexpectedly by 3.4% mom in December (+5.2% mom in                                                                                      1-year forward short-term rate (LHS)                               Change in policy rate                               CPI yoy (RHS)



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 8, 2011

                                             FX Wrap                                                                                                                    Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                 Mon 07-Feb-11                Fri 04-Feb-11                 % Change
       1.42
       1.40                                                                                                                              USD/THB                       30.71                      30.77                        -0.19
       1.38                                                                                                                              USD/JPY                       82.31                      82.17                       +0.17
       1.36                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                        1.358                      1.359                        -0.01
       1.34
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                       1.6106                     1.6099                       +0.04
       1.32
       1.30                                                                                                                              USD/CHF                      0.9554                     0.9553                       +0.01
       1.28                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                       1.2732                     1.2745                        -0.10
       1.26                                                                                                                             USD/TWD                        29.04                      29.03                       +0.05
           Oct-10                Nov-10                Dec-10               Jan-11                Feb-11
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,103.6                     1,113.6                       -0.90
                                                           EUR/USD
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                       43.63                      43.65                        -0.06
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                       8,950                      8,990                        -0.44
    EUR/USD was little changed at 1.358. The euro
    rebounded during Asian hours, boosted by investors’                                                                                 USD/MYR                        3.036                      3.042                        -0.20
    appetite for risky assets. However, euro closed lower again                                                                         USD/CNY                        6.560                      6.561                        -0.02
    after Germany showed weaker-than-expected industrial                                                                           Source: Reuters
    orders, sending worries concerning a waning import                                                                                                               .FX Consensus Forecast
    demand from overseas.
                                                                                                                                                                        Spot                          Jun 2011                Dec 2011
    USD/JPY remained in range trade while BOJ’s governor                                                                                USD/THB                        30.69                                -                   29.00
    said Japanese economy continues to show signs of
    strengthening and expect the deceleration to end in Q1                                                                              USD/JPY                        82.31                            86.00                   89.00
    with economic expansion expected during the next few                                                                                EUR/USD                         1.36                             1.30                    1.30
    quarters.
                                                                                                                                        GBP/USD                         1.61                             1.55                    1.60
       31.30
                                                                                                                                        USD/CNY                         6.59                             6.45                    6.30
       31.10
       30.90                                                                                                                            USD/SGD                         1.27                             1.27                    1.23
       30.70
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                       8,931                            8,900                   8,825
       30.50
       30.30                                                                                                                            USD/MYR                         3.03                             3.02                    2.96
       30.10
                                                                                                                                        USD/PHP                        43.51                            42.80                   42.00
       29.90
       29.70                                                                                                                            USD/KRW                        1,105                            1,090                   1,050
       29.50                                                                                                                            USD/TWD                        28.98                            28.80                   28.40
            1-Sep             1-Oct            1-Nov            1-Dec            1-Jan             1-Feb
                                                                                                                                        AUD/USD                         1.01                             1.00                    0.99
                                                           USD/THB
                                                                                                                                        NZD/USD                         0.77                             0.77                    0.76
    USD/THB closed slightly lower to 30.71, in line with the                                                                       Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    strengthening of Asian currencies after economic data in
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
    the U.S. lifted risk appetite.
                                                                                                                                                                               Spot                  Jun 2011                 Dec 2011
    Asian stock markets were bolstered by the U.S.                                                                                           USD/THB                           30.69                       -                     29.0
    unemployment rate reduction on Monday. The MSCI Asia-
                                                                                                                                             EUR/THB                           41.69                    40.0                     37.0
    Pacific also rose to test its 3-year high level. The Korean
    won strengthened to a high not seen since November last                                                                                  JPY/THB                           37.28                   34.70                     29.5
    year near 1,104 won per dollar after financial markets re-                                                                               GBP/THB                           49.43                   47.40                     43.7
                                             st
    opened for the first day since Feb 1 . South Korean’s
    foreign reserves was also showed to be at an all-time high                                                                               CNY/THB                           4.66                     4.78                      4.2
    at $296bn yesterday. The Malaysian ringgit touched a new                                                                                 AUD/THB                           31.08                    27.4                     26.0
    high, surpassing 3.034 ringgit per dollar after markets
                                                                                                                                             CHF/THB                           32.10                    29.6                     27.7
    reopened as well.                                                                                                              Source: KBank, Bloomberg

                                                                                                                                 KBank NEER Index
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         97.74
                                                                                                                                 YTD                                                                            + 4.96%
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                                + 3.79%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1mth ago                                                                    - 2.99%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                  + 0.10%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                   + 0.18%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                           + 9.88%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 8, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                           Auction results of BoT Bonds                                                                                      Feb 04
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20          -10              0               +10         +20             +30          +40                      No auctions on Monday Feb 7th
         LB113A               2.07      2.09           2.12         2.14           2.17              2.19        2.22            2.24         2.02                                                                                                                                        Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
           LB116A             2.66      2.57           2.48         2.40           2.31              2.22        2.13            2.05         1.71                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ratio
          LB11NA              3.56      3.30           3.04         2.78           2.52              2.26        1.99            1.73         1.22
                                                                                                                                                                       CB11222A                          0.04              80,000                     2.040/2.114          2.091900       1.12
           LB123A             4.17      3.81           3.45         3.08           2.72              2.36        1.99            1.63         1.02
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
          LB12NA              5.33      4.72           4.12         3.51           2.91              2.31        1.70            1.10         0.24
           LB133A             6.00      5.27           4.53         3.80           3.07              2.34        1.60            0.87        -0.11                     Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB137A             6.57      5.71           4.85         4.00           3.14              2.29        1.43            0.58        -0.53                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
          LB13OA              7.00      6.05           5.10         4.15           3.20              2.25        1.30            0.35        -0.85                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB143A             7.35      6.34           5.32         4.31           3.29              2.28        1.26            0.25        -1.02                     CB11310C                          0.08              25,000                     08-Feb-11            11-Mar-11       -
           LB145A             7.93      6.79           5.65         4.51           3.37              2.23        1.10            -0.04 -1.43                           CB11512B                          0.25              22,000                     08-Feb-11           12-May-11        -
           LB145B             7.93      6.79           5.65         4.51           3.37              2.23        1.10            -0.04 -1.43                           CB118011A                         0.50              15,000                     08-Feb-11            11-Aug-11       -
          LB14DA              8.73      7.40           6.08         4.75           3.43              2.10        0.78            -0.55 -2.12                           BOT142A                           3.00              15,000                     11-Feb-11            15-Feb-14       -
           LB155A             9.51      8.00           6.49         4.98           3.47              1.95        0.44            -1.07 -2.83                           BOT132A                           2.00              30,000                     15-Feb-11            17-Feb-13
           LB157A             9.37      7.90           6.42         4.95           3.48              2.00        0.53            -0.94 -2.66                                                                                                                                               -
                                                                                                                                                                       BOT152A                           4.00              15,000                     22-Feb-11            24-Feb-15
          LB15DA              10.37 8.66               6.94         5.22           3.50              1.78        0.06            -1.65 -3.62
                                                                                                                                                                       Source: ThaiBMA
           LB167A             10.95 9.10               7.26         5.41           3.56              1.72       -0.13 -1.97 -4.07
                                                                                                                                                                       Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
          LB16NA              11.52 9.54               7.57         5.59           3.62              1.64       -0.33 -2.31 -4.53
           LB171A             11.58 9.59               7.61         5.63           3.65              1.67       -0.31 -2.29 -4.52                                                                        Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                       Symbol                                                                     Auction Date           Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB175A             12.10 9.99               7.88         5.77           3.66              1.55       -0.55 -2.66 -5.02
                                                                                                                                                                       LB15DA                            5.32              10,000                     09-Feb-11            11-Dec-15       -
           LB183A             13.17 10.80 8.43                      6.06           3.69              1.32       -1.05 -3.41 -6.03
           LB183B             12.87 10.58 8.28                      5.98           3.69              1.39       -0.90 -3.19 -5.74                                      LB416A                            30.65             5,000                      16-Feb-11            14-Jun-41       -
           LB191A             13.85 11.31 8.78                      6.24           3.71              1.18       -1.35 -3.88 -6.66                                      LB25DA                            15.05             8,000                      23-Feb-11            12-Dec-25       -
           LB196A             14.79 12.02 9.25                      6.48           3.72              0.95       -1.82 -4.58 -7.59                                      Source: ThaiBMA
           LB198A             14.62 11.91 9.20                      6.49           3.79              1.08       -1.63 -4.33 -7.28
          LB19DA              14.91 12.14 9.37                      6.60           3.84              1.07       -1.69 -4.46 -7.47
           LB213A             16.04 13.00 9.97                      6.94           3.92              0.89       -2.14 -5.16 -8.44
                                                                                                                                                                       * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
           LB214A             15.94 12.95 9.96                      6.97           3.98              0.99       -1.99 -4.98 -8.21
                                                                                                                                                                       during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
          LB22NA              18.02 14.53 11.04 7.56                               4.08              0.60       -2.88 -6.36 -10.09                                     cash balance.
           LB233A             18.07 14.58 11.09 7.60                               4.11              0.62       -2.87 -6.35 -10.09
           LB236A             19.53 15.68 11.83 7.98                               4.13              0.28       -3.56 -7.40 -11.50
           LB244A             19.65 15.77 11.90 8.03                               4.16              0.30       -3.57 -7.43 -11.54
          LB24DA              20.26 16.24 12.22 8.21                               4.20              0.18       -3.82 -7.83 -12.09
           LB267A             20.76 16.62 12.48 8.35                               4.22              0.09       -4.03 -8.16 -12.53
           LB283A             22.00 17.56 13.12 8.68                               4.25          -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.71
           LB296A             23.71 18.85 13.98 9.12                               4.26          -0.59 -5.45 -10.29 -15.39
           LB383A             27.94 22.03 16.13 10.23 4.34                                       -1.55 -7.43 -13.30 -19.43
           LB396A             29.28 23.04 16.80 10.58 4.35                                       -1.86 -8.07 -14.28 -20.73
          Average             12.98 10.63 8.28                      5.94           3.59              1.25       -1.10 -3.44 -6.03
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                    30.00

                                    20.00

                                    10.00

                                     0.00

                                   -10.00

                                   -20.00

                                   -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                             3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Now
                                   -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB296A
                                              LB113A

                                                        LB116A
                                                                 LB11NA

                                                                          LB123A

                                                                                   LB133A
                                                                                            LB137A

                                                                                                      LB145B

                                                                                                               LB14DA
                                                                                                                        LB155A

                                                                                                                                 LB15DA

                                                                                                                                          LB167A
                                                                                                                                                   LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                            LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                     LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                              LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                       LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                                LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                        The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 8, 2011

                                                                                                                                 "But after a new round of fighting yesterday morning, the
                      Economic News Update                                                                                       government has to evaluate whether to go ahead with a
    Border clashes may hit tourism,                                                                                              planned Thai trade fair in Phnom Penh from Feb 17-20 as
                                                                                                                                 private operators are concerned about their safety," he
    investment: Businesspeople are worried the border                                                                            said.
    clashes between Thailand and Cambodia in Si Sa Ket
    province will hurt trade and investment sentiment as well                                                                    The Department of Export Promotion said 90% of 61
    as dim the tourism recovery.                                                                                                 entrepreneurs registered for the trade fair wanted to
    Kongkrit Hiranyakit, chairman of the Tourism Council of                                                                      postpone the event.
    Thailand (TCT), said the clashes between Thai and
    Cambodian troops are making a number of tourists stay                                                                        The Board of Investment of Thailand reports since
    away from nearby areas. He expects they will have a long-                                                                    Cambodia allowed foreign investment in 1994, there have
    term impact on Thai tourism as the country may lose the                                                                      been 1,628 project investments by Thai businessmen
    opportunity to be a tourism hub when the Asean Economic                                                                      through 2008, worth about US$8.1 billion of investment
    Community integration takes place in 2015.                                                                                   capital. The latest figures released by the Cambodia
                                                                                                                                 Investment Board reported that 101 investment projects
    "The ongoing clashes can make other Asean member                                                                             from Thailand were approved in 2008 involving $260
    nations turn their attention from Thailand to other countries.                                                               million.
    Our rivals like Malaysia and Singapore may take this
    opportunity to promote themselves," he said.                                                                                 The garment industry had 38 projects worth $48.7 million,
                                                                                                                                 followed by tourism with 20 projects worth over $100
    Border clashes could mean other neighbouring countries                                                                       million. Agro-industry and energy were also big sectors.
    like Laos and Burma may not trust Thailand, and Thai
    investors may be reluctant to invest in these countries, he                                                                  Payungsak Chartsutthipol, chairman of the Federation of
    added.                                                                                                                       Thai Industries, said a committee should be set up to jointly
                                                                                                                                 solve the problem without military force.
    As for short-term impact, the number of Thai visitors to
    Cambodia will drop. Also foreign tourists who stop over in                                                                   "We think [the two countries] will be able to sort out the
    Thailand before travelling to Angkor Wat will decrease, with                                                                 problems without a prolonged fight," he said.
    Japanese and Koreans likely stopping over in Vietnam                                                                         (Source: Bangkok Post)
    instead. This is tens of thousands of tourists annually, he
    noted.

    Niyom Waiyaratchpanich, chairman of the Thai Chamber of
    Commerce committee on neighbouring countries, urged
    the government to quickly quash the conflict as a
    prolonged flare-up may lead to losses in trading value of up
    to 1 billion baht.

    Bilateral trade has gradually declined from 59 billion baht in
    2008 to 50 billion baht in 2009 and 2010, with estimates
    this year of 45 billion baht.

    Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said the closure of
    four checkpoints in the past four days has docked trading
    value by about 100 million baht.

    Deputy Commerce Minister Alongkorn Ponlaboot said
    border trade between Thailand and Cambodia accounted
    for 80% of bilateral trade for the countries last year. More
    than half of the total exports to Cambodia were shipped
    through checkpoints in Sa Kaew province.

    Mr Alongkorn believed the trade decline would not exceed
    5% of total border trade, but that assumes no prolonged
    fighting.

    So far, the ministry has not received any complaints from
    Thai investors working on construction and infrastructure
    projects in Cambodia, but Thailand already suspended the
    export of bandages and medical supplies to the                                                                                                          Market Strategists:
    neighbouring country.
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham
    The latest government assessment showed the economic                                                                                                    Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
    impact was limited to border trade, sparing investment
    sentiment.                                                                                                                                              Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Feb 8, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       02/07/2011 04:00                      SK             Foreign Exchange Reserve USD                                           JAN                     --                $295.96B               $291.57B                     --
       02/07/2011 05:30                      AU             AiG Perf of Construction Index                                         JAN                     --                   40.2                   43.8                      --
       02/07/2011 06:50                      JN             Official Reserve Assets                                                JAN                     --                $1093.0B               $1096.2B                     --
       02/07/2011 07:30                      AU             ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)                                           JAN                     --                  2.40%                  2.00%                    1.20%
       02/07/2011 07:30                      AU             Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)                                                DEC                  0.50%                  0.20%                  0.30%                    0.40%
       02/07/2011 07:30                      AU             Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ)                                          4Q                  -0.30%                 -0.30%                 0.70%                    0.50%

       02/07/2011 09:30                      HK             Purchasing Managers Index                                              JAN                     --                   55.2                    55                       --
       02/07/2011 10:22                      ID             Foreign Reserves                                                       JAN                     --                 $95.33B               $96.21B                      --
       02/07/2011 10:22                      ID             Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)                                           JAN                     --                 827.04T                829.32T                     --
       02/07/2011 11:09                      ID             GDP Constant Price (YoY)                                                4Q                  6.30%                  6.90%                  5.80%                      --
       02/07/2011 11:09                      ID             GDP Constant Price (QoQ)                                                4Q                  -1.98%                 -1.40%                 3.45%                      --
       02/07/2011 12:00                      JN             Coincident Index CI                                                  DEC P                   103.1                  103.1                 102.4                      --
       02/07/2011 12:00                      JN             Leading Index CI                                                     DEC P                   101.4                  101.4                 100.6                      --
       02/07/2011 12:30                      AU             Foreign Reserves                                                       JAN                     --                  40.8B                  41.6B                      --
       02/07/2011 12:30                      IN             FY11 Annual GDP Constant YoY%                                         1Q A                  8.60%                  8.60%                  8.00%                      --
       02/07/2011 14:11                      ID             Danareksa Consumer Confidence                                          JAN                     --                   82.3                   84.3                      --
       02/07/2011 14:30                      PH             Foreign Reserves                                                       JAN                     --                  $63.6B                $62.1B                      --
       02/07/2011 16:00                      SI             Foreign Reserves                                                       JAN                     --                $227.11B               $225.75B                $225.75B
       02/07/2011 16:30                      EC             Sentix Investor Confidence                                             FEB                     14                   16.7                   10.6                      --
       02/07/2011 18:00                      GE             Factory Orders YoY (nsa)                                               DEC                 21.30%                 19.70%                 20.60%                      --
       02/07/2011 18:00                      GE             Factory Orders MoM (sa)                                                DEC                  -1.50%                 -3.40%                 5.20%                      --
       02/07/2011 20:30                      CA             Building Permits MoM                                                   DEC                  2.50%                  2.40%                 -11.20%                 -10.50%
       02/08/2011 03:00                      US             Consumer Credit                                                        DEC                 $2.400B                $6.099B               $1.346B                  $2.000B
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Japan Money Stock M2 YoY                                               JAN                  2.30%                  2.30%                  2.30%                      --
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Japan Money Stock M3 YoY                                               JAN                  1.80%                  1.80%                  1.80%                      --
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Bank Lending Banks Adjust YoY                                          JAN                     --                  -1.60%                -1.80%                      --
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY                                             JAN                  -2.10%                 -1.90%                -2.10%                      --
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY)                                         JAN                  -1.80%                 -1.80%                -1.90%                   -2.00%
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Current Account Total                                                  DEC                ¥1130.0B               ¥1195.3B               ¥926.2B                      --
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Adjusted Current Account Total                                         DEC                ¥1530.8B               ¥1555.9B               ¥1145.1B                     --
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Current Account Balance YOY%                                           DEC                 24.20%                 30.50%                -15.70%                      --
       02/08/2011 06:50                      JN             Trade Balance - BOP Basis                                              DEC                 ¥779.7B                ¥768.8B               ¥259.7B                      --
       02/08/2011 07:01                      UK             BRC Retail Sales Monitor                                             Apr-23
       02/08/2011 07:01                      UK             RICS House Price Balance                                               JAN                   -38%                   -31%                   -39%                      --
       02/08/2011 07:30                      AU             NAB Business Confidence                                                JAN                     --                     4                      -3                      --
       02/08/2011 07:30                      AU             NAB Business Conditions                                                JAN                     --                     -6                     6                       --
       02/08/2011 11:30                      JN             Bankruptcies (YoY)                                                     JAN                     --                     --                 -3.00%                      --
       02/08/2011 12:00                      JN             Eco Watchers Survey: Current                                           JAN                    45.5                    --                   45.1                      --
       02/08/2011 12:00                      JN             Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook                                           JAN                     --                     --                   43.9                      --
       02/08/2011 14:30                      FR             Bank of France Bus. Sentiment                                          JAN                    108                     --                    108                      --
       02/08/2011 14:45                      FR             Central Govt. Balance (Euros)                                          DEC                     --                     --                 -140.7B                     --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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K bank daily feb 8

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Feb 8, 2011 Thai Stock Market US Market Feb 07 Change Feb 07 Change SET Index 985.63 Dow Jones +0.85 12,161.63 +69.48 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 24,267.71 Nasdaq -8,448.65 2,783.99 +14.69 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -2,972.24 S&P 500 -3,251.34 1,319.05 +8.18 Thai Bond Market Feb 07 US 10 yr T-note (%) Change 3.64 -1 bp Total Return Index 200.53 US 2yr T-note (%) +0.00 0.76 +1 bp NYMEX crude ($/b) 87.48 -1.55 Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Feb 07 (%) 2.04 2.12 2.29 2.58 2.98 3.22 3.47 3.64 3.86 4.05 4.15 4.21 Chng 1D (bp) 0 0 0 0 2 0 7 2 1 1 0 0 Chng 5D (bp) -1 1 2 4 2 1 7 1 1 0 0 -1 Interbank Rates Feb 08 Feb 04 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 2.000-2.210 Feb 07 2.26250 2.29016 2.35375 2.40500 2.52891 2.59875 2.69875 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 07 2.25000 2.25000 - - Feb 07 0.26625 0.30125 0.46188 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Feb 07 1.02840 1.06334 1.24500 1.57140 1.84154 2.04292 Feb 07 0.26375 0.31200 0.46285 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Feb 08 Bid/Ask 1.98/2.02 2.71/2.75 3.20/3.24 3.53/3.57 3.78/3.82 4.08/4.12 4.33/4.37 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.44 30.54 30.79 0.50/3.24 EUR 41.2325 41.3675 41.8925 -0.72/2.26 GBP 48.9650 49.1263 49.7138 0.03/2.60 JPY 0.3679 0.3690 0.3758 0.32/4.63 KBank Technical Analysis Feb 08 Feb 07 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.66 30.72 30.60 30.75 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 82.29 82.31 82.00 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near support EUR/USD 1.3604 1.3586 1.3510 1.3620 Sideway Sell EUR near resistance Macro and Market Outlook • Global stocks closed higher on Monday while expectations on increased M&A activities and positive earning results in the U.S. also helped to push the stock indices to near 2.5-year highs • Crude oil price fell $1.5/barrel yesterday to close near its 2-week low after there had been no disruptions of the fuel’s transport in the Middle East • European economic data were mixed – Sentix investor confidence for euro zone rose to the highest level in 3 years’ time while Germany’s industrial orders fell unexpectedly FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD was little changed at 1.358. The euro rebounded during Asian hours, but closed lower again after Germany showed weaker-than-expected industrial orders • USD/THB closed slightly lower to 30.71, in line with the strengthening of Asian currencies after economic data in the U.S. lifted risk appetite Economic News Update • Businesspeople are worried the border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia in Si Sa Ket province will hurt trade and investment sentiment as well as dim the tourism recovery Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Feb 8, 2011 Nov). The Sentix index rose to 16.7 from 10.6 in January, Macro and Market Outlook recording its highest since September 2007. 1100 600 Asia update – Indonesia’s economy expanded by 6.9% 1000 550 yoy in Q4, more than the market’s forecast of 6.2%. meanwhile, India’s authorities said the economy may 900 expand by 8.6% for the four quarters ending in March 500 800 2011. 450 700 This week – apart from the end-week economic data, 4 of Federal Reserve Open-Market committee voting members 600 400 are scheduled to speak this week. The market is likely to Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 focus on U.S. economic outlook and the more details of the SET Index (LHS) MSCI Asia ex Japan Index (RHS) progress on Q.E. 2 due to light economic releases this Global stocks closed higher on Monday, boosted by week. Also, look out for comments from the BOE with optimism concerning the U.S. economic recovery, regards to inflation concerns in the U.K. especially after unemployment rate was shown to be at 9.0% last Friday, a decline from 9.4% a month earlier. Expectations on increased M&A activities and positive US Treasuries and Thai rates earning results in the U.S. also helped to push the Dow and S&P 500 to near their 2.5-year highs. Asian stocks climbed after having closed for many days for Chinese Treasury yields were near a nine-month high as the U.S. New Year. The SET Index managed to gain slightly despite prepared to sell $32 billion of 3-year notes today, to be net-selling by foreigners yesterday. followed by offerings 10-year securities tomorrow and 30- year bonds on Feb. 10. CNBC News: U.S. outstanding consumer installment credit Investors have pushed rates up for four months on signs shot upward in December as shoppers boosted their credit- ofgrowth in the U.S. economy , including a drop in the card debt for the first time in more than two years, unemployment rate to a 21-month low in January. Reports according to the Federal Reserve. Total credit outstanding this week will show consumer confidence climbed and climbed $6.1 billion, nearly triple the $2.3 billion that Wall initial claims for jobless benefits fell, economists said. Street economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast, after an upwardly revised $2 billion increase in November. Ten-year notes yielded 3.64 percent at 9:25 a.m. in Tokyo, $/ounce $/barrel according to BGCantor Market Data. The 2.625 percent security maturing in November 2020 traded at a price of 91 1500 95.0 1450 23/32. The rate climbed to 3.69 percent yesterday, the 1400 90.0 most since May 4. (Source: Bloomberg) 1350 85.0 Thai interest rate: 1300 1250 80.0 % Interest rate swaps 1200 75.0 4.0 1150 1100 70.0 3.5 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 3.0 Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS) 2.5 Crude oil price fell $1.5/barrel yesterday to close near its 2- 2.0 week low after there had been no disruptions of the fuel’s 1.5 transport in the Middle East despite the ongoing political 1.0 unrest in Egypt and increased political risks in several other 1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan 30-Jan Arab nations. Gold price seems to be stabilizing somewhat, 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y still capped by investors’ stronger appetite for risky assets such as equities as signs of U.S. recovery accumulate. In Asia, the market continues to price in further rate hikes by the central banks. Economies with the least rate hikes Eurozone Confidence Indicators since the 2008 financial crisis are deemed to raise their 50 120 40 interest rates by the largest amount this year (Indonesia, 30 110 Philippines, South Korea). Consumer price inflation has 20 firmed while economic growth outlook remained positive. 100 10 0 90 bp % -10 200 10 80 175 -20 150 7.5 -30 70 125 -40 Sentix Investor confidence (left axis) European Commission Economic confidence (right axis) 100 5 -50 60 75 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 50 2.5 25 European economic data yesterday were mixed – Sentix 0 0 South Korea (Germany-based research institute) investor confidence for Thailand Singapore Indonesia Philippines Hong Kong Japan Australia Taiwan India China Malaysia euro zone rose to the highest level in 3 years’ time in February while Germany’s industrial orders fell unexpectedly by 3.4% mom in December (+5.2% mom in 1-year forward short-term rate (LHS) Change in policy rate CPI yoy (RHS) 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Feb 8, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Mon 07-Feb-11 Fri 04-Feb-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.71 30.77 -0.19 1.38 USD/JPY 82.31 82.17 +0.17 1.36 EUR/USD 1.358 1.359 -0.01 1.34 GBP/USD 1.6106 1.6099 +0.04 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9554 0.9553 +0.01 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2732 1.2745 -0.10 1.26 USD/TWD 29.04 29.03 +0.05 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 USD/KRW 1,103.6 1,113.6 -0.90 EUR/USD USD/PHP 43.63 43.65 -0.06 USD/IDR 8,950 8,990 -0.44 EUR/USD was little changed at 1.358. The euro rebounded during Asian hours, boosted by investors’ USD/MYR 3.036 3.042 -0.20 appetite for risky assets. However, euro closed lower again USD/CNY 6.560 6.561 -0.02 after Germany showed weaker-than-expected industrial Source: Reuters orders, sending worries concerning a waning import .FX Consensus Forecast demand from overseas. Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 USD/JPY remained in range trade while BOJ’s governor USD/THB 30.69 - 29.00 said Japanese economy continues to show signs of strengthening and expect the deceleration to end in Q1 USD/JPY 82.31 86.00 89.00 with economic expansion expected during the next few EUR/USD 1.36 1.30 1.30 quarters. GBP/USD 1.61 1.55 1.60 31.30 USD/CNY 6.59 6.45 6.30 31.10 30.90 USD/SGD 1.27 1.27 1.23 30.70 USD/IDR 8,931 8,900 8,825 30.50 30.30 USD/MYR 3.03 3.02 2.96 30.10 USD/PHP 43.51 42.80 42.00 29.90 29.70 USD/KRW 1,105 1,090 1,050 29.50 USD/TWD 28.98 28.80 28.40 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb AUD/USD 1.01 1.00 0.99 USD/THB NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 USD/THB closed slightly lower to 30.71, in line with the Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB strengthening of Asian currencies after economic data in Currency Pair Targets the U.S. lifted risk appetite. Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Asian stock markets were bolstered by the U.S. USD/THB 30.69 - 29.0 unemployment rate reduction on Monday. The MSCI Asia- EUR/THB 41.69 40.0 37.0 Pacific also rose to test its 3-year high level. The Korean won strengthened to a high not seen since November last JPY/THB 37.28 34.70 29.5 year near 1,104 won per dollar after financial markets re- GBP/THB 49.43 47.40 43.7 st opened for the first day since Feb 1 . South Korean’s foreign reserves was also showed to be at an all-time high CNY/THB 4.66 4.78 4.2 at $296bn yesterday. The Malaysian ringgit touched a new AUD/THB 31.08 27.4 26.0 high, surpassing 3.034 ringgit per dollar after markets CHF/THB 32.10 29.6 27.7 reopened as well. Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank NEER Index Current 97.74 YTD + 4.96% vs 52 weeks ago + 3.79% vs 1mth ago - 2.99% vs 1 week ago + 0.10% vs 1 day ago + 0.18% vs long term average + 9.88% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Feb 8, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Feb 04 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 No auctions on Monday Feb 7th LB113A 2.07 2.09 2.12 2.14 2.17 2.19 2.22 2.24 2.02 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB116A 2.66 2.57 2.48 2.40 2.31 2.22 2.13 2.05 1.71 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB11NA 3.56 3.30 3.04 2.78 2.52 2.26 1.99 1.73 1.22 CB11222A 0.04 80,000 2.040/2.114 2.091900 1.12 LB123A 4.17 3.81 3.45 3.08 2.72 2.36 1.99 1.63 1.02 Source: ThaiBMA LB12NA 5.33 4.72 4.12 3.51 2.91 2.31 1.70 1.10 0.24 LB133A 6.00 5.27 4.53 3.80 3.07 2.34 1.60 0.87 -0.11 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB137A 6.57 5.71 4.85 4.00 3.14 2.29 1.43 0.58 -0.53 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB13OA 7.00 6.05 5.10 4.15 3.20 2.25 1.30 0.35 -0.85 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB143A 7.35 6.34 5.32 4.31 3.29 2.28 1.26 0.25 -1.02 CB11310C 0.08 25,000 08-Feb-11 11-Mar-11 - LB145A 7.93 6.79 5.65 4.51 3.37 2.23 1.10 -0.04 -1.43 CB11512B 0.25 22,000 08-Feb-11 12-May-11 - LB145B 7.93 6.79 5.65 4.51 3.37 2.23 1.10 -0.04 -1.43 CB118011A 0.50 15,000 08-Feb-11 11-Aug-11 - LB14DA 8.73 7.40 6.08 4.75 3.43 2.10 0.78 -0.55 -2.12 BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 - LB155A 9.51 8.00 6.49 4.98 3.47 1.95 0.44 -1.07 -2.83 BOT132A 2.00 30,000 15-Feb-11 17-Feb-13 LB157A 9.37 7.90 6.42 4.95 3.48 2.00 0.53 -0.94 -2.66 - BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-15 LB15DA 10.37 8.66 6.94 5.22 3.50 1.78 0.06 -1.65 -3.62 Source: ThaiBMA LB167A 10.95 9.10 7.26 5.41 3.56 1.72 -0.13 -1.97 -4.07 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB16NA 11.52 9.54 7.57 5.59 3.62 1.64 -0.33 -2.31 -4.53 LB171A 11.58 9.59 7.61 5.63 3.65 1.67 -0.31 -2.29 -4.52 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB175A 12.10 9.99 7.88 5.77 3.66 1.55 -0.55 -2.66 -5.02 LB15DA 5.32 10,000 09-Feb-11 11-Dec-15 - LB183A 13.17 10.80 8.43 6.06 3.69 1.32 -1.05 -3.41 -6.03 LB183B 12.87 10.58 8.28 5.98 3.69 1.39 -0.90 -3.19 -5.74 LB416A 30.65 5,000 16-Feb-11 14-Jun-41 - LB191A 13.85 11.31 8.78 6.24 3.71 1.18 -1.35 -3.88 -6.66 LB25DA 15.05 8,000 23-Feb-11 12-Dec-25 - LB196A 14.79 12.02 9.25 6.48 3.72 0.95 -1.82 -4.58 -7.59 Source: ThaiBMA LB198A 14.62 11.91 9.20 6.49 3.79 1.08 -1.63 -4.33 -7.28 LB19DA 14.91 12.14 9.37 6.60 3.84 1.07 -1.69 -4.46 -7.47 LB213A 16.04 13.00 9.97 6.94 3.92 0.89 -2.14 -5.16 -8.44 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB214A 15.94 12.95 9.96 6.97 3.98 0.99 -1.99 -4.98 -8.21 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB22NA 18.02 14.53 11.04 7.56 4.08 0.60 -2.88 -6.36 -10.09 cash balance. LB233A 18.07 14.58 11.09 7.60 4.11 0.62 -2.87 -6.35 -10.09 LB236A 19.53 15.68 11.83 7.98 4.13 0.28 -3.56 -7.40 -11.50 LB244A 19.65 15.77 11.90 8.03 4.16 0.30 -3.57 -7.43 -11.54 LB24DA 20.26 16.24 12.22 8.21 4.20 0.18 -3.82 -7.83 -12.09 LB267A 20.76 16.62 12.48 8.35 4.22 0.09 -4.03 -8.16 -12.53 LB283A 22.00 17.56 13.12 8.68 4.25 -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.71 LB296A 23.71 18.85 13.98 9.12 4.26 -0.59 -5.45 -10.29 -15.39 LB383A 27.94 22.03 16.13 10.23 4.34 -1.55 -7.43 -13.30 -19.43 LB396A 29.28 23.04 16.80 10.58 4.35 -1.86 -8.07 -14.28 -20.73 Average 12.98 10.63 8.28 5.94 3.59 1.25 -1.10 -3.44 -6.03 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Feb 8, 2011 "But after a new round of fighting yesterday morning, the Economic News Update government has to evaluate whether to go ahead with a Border clashes may hit tourism, planned Thai trade fair in Phnom Penh from Feb 17-20 as private operators are concerned about their safety," he investment: Businesspeople are worried the border said. clashes between Thailand and Cambodia in Si Sa Ket province will hurt trade and investment sentiment as well The Department of Export Promotion said 90% of 61 as dim the tourism recovery. entrepreneurs registered for the trade fair wanted to Kongkrit Hiranyakit, chairman of the Tourism Council of postpone the event. Thailand (TCT), said the clashes between Thai and Cambodian troops are making a number of tourists stay The Board of Investment of Thailand reports since away from nearby areas. He expects they will have a long- Cambodia allowed foreign investment in 1994, there have term impact on Thai tourism as the country may lose the been 1,628 project investments by Thai businessmen opportunity to be a tourism hub when the Asean Economic through 2008, worth about US$8.1 billion of investment Community integration takes place in 2015. capital. The latest figures released by the Cambodia Investment Board reported that 101 investment projects "The ongoing clashes can make other Asean member from Thailand were approved in 2008 involving $260 nations turn their attention from Thailand to other countries. million. Our rivals like Malaysia and Singapore may take this opportunity to promote themselves," he said. The garment industry had 38 projects worth $48.7 million, followed by tourism with 20 projects worth over $100 Border clashes could mean other neighbouring countries million. Agro-industry and energy were also big sectors. like Laos and Burma may not trust Thailand, and Thai investors may be reluctant to invest in these countries, he Payungsak Chartsutthipol, chairman of the Federation of added. Thai Industries, said a committee should be set up to jointly solve the problem without military force. As for short-term impact, the number of Thai visitors to Cambodia will drop. Also foreign tourists who stop over in "We think [the two countries] will be able to sort out the Thailand before travelling to Angkor Wat will decrease, with problems without a prolonged fight," he said. Japanese and Koreans likely stopping over in Vietnam (Source: Bangkok Post) instead. This is tens of thousands of tourists annually, he noted. Niyom Waiyaratchpanich, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce committee on neighbouring countries, urged the government to quickly quash the conflict as a prolonged flare-up may lead to losses in trading value of up to 1 billion baht. Bilateral trade has gradually declined from 59 billion baht in 2008 to 50 billion baht in 2009 and 2010, with estimates this year of 45 billion baht. Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said the closure of four checkpoints in the past four days has docked trading value by about 100 million baht. Deputy Commerce Minister Alongkorn Ponlaboot said border trade between Thailand and Cambodia accounted for 80% of bilateral trade for the countries last year. More than half of the total exports to Cambodia were shipped through checkpoints in Sa Kaew province. Mr Alongkorn believed the trade decline would not exceed 5% of total border trade, but that assumes no prolonged fighting. So far, the ministry has not received any complaints from Thai investors working on construction and infrastructure projects in Cambodia, but Thailand already suspended the export of bandages and medical supplies to the Market Strategists: neighbouring country. Nalin Chutchotitham The latest government assessment showed the economic Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com impact was limited to border trade, sparing investment sentiment. Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Feb 8, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 02/07/2011 04:00 SK Foreign Exchange Reserve USD JAN -- $295.96B $291.57B -- 02/07/2011 05:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index JAN -- 40.2 43.8 -- 02/07/2011 06:50 JN Official Reserve Assets JAN -- $1093.0B $1096.2B -- 02/07/2011 07:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) JAN -- 2.40% 2.00% 1.20% 02/07/2011 07:30 AU Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) DEC 0.50% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 02/07/2011 07:30 AU Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) 4Q -0.30% -0.30% 0.70% 0.50% 02/07/2011 09:30 HK Purchasing Managers Index JAN -- 55.2 55 -- 02/07/2011 10:22 ID Foreign Reserves JAN -- $95.33B $96.21B -- 02/07/2011 10:22 ID Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) JAN -- 827.04T 829.32T -- 02/07/2011 11:09 ID GDP Constant Price (YoY) 4Q 6.30% 6.90% 5.80% -- 02/07/2011 11:09 ID GDP Constant Price (QoQ) 4Q -1.98% -1.40% 3.45% -- 02/07/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI DEC P 103.1 103.1 102.4 -- 02/07/2011 12:00 JN Leading Index CI DEC P 101.4 101.4 100.6 -- 02/07/2011 12:30 AU Foreign Reserves JAN -- 40.8B 41.6B -- 02/07/2011 12:30 IN FY11 Annual GDP Constant YoY% 1Q A 8.60% 8.60% 8.00% -- 02/07/2011 14:11 ID Danareksa Consumer Confidence JAN -- 82.3 84.3 -- 02/07/2011 14:30 PH Foreign Reserves JAN -- $63.6B $62.1B -- 02/07/2011 16:00 SI Foreign Reserves JAN -- $227.11B $225.75B $225.75B 02/07/2011 16:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence FEB 14 16.7 10.6 -- 02/07/2011 18:00 GE Factory Orders YoY (nsa) DEC 21.30% 19.70% 20.60% -- 02/07/2011 18:00 GE Factory Orders MoM (sa) DEC -1.50% -3.40% 5.20% -- 02/07/2011 20:30 CA Building Permits MoM DEC 2.50% 2.40% -11.20% -10.50% 02/08/2011 03:00 US Consumer Credit DEC $2.400B $6.099B $1.346B $2.000B 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Japan Money Stock M2 YoY JAN 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% -- 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Japan Money Stock M3 YoY JAN 1.80% 1.80% 1.80% -- 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Bank Lending Banks Adjust YoY JAN -- -1.60% -1.80% -- 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY JAN -2.10% -1.90% -2.10% -- 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) JAN -1.80% -1.80% -1.90% -2.00% 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Current Account Total DEC ¥1130.0B ¥1195.3B ¥926.2B -- 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Adjusted Current Account Total DEC ¥1530.8B ¥1555.9B ¥1145.1B -- 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Current Account Balance YOY% DEC 24.20% 30.50% -15.70% -- 02/08/2011 06:50 JN Trade Balance - BOP Basis DEC ¥779.7B ¥768.8B ¥259.7B -- 02/08/2011 07:01 UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor Apr-23 02/08/2011 07:01 UK RICS House Price Balance JAN -38% -31% -39% -- 02/08/2011 07:30 AU NAB Business Confidence JAN -- 4 -3 -- 02/08/2011 07:30 AU NAB Business Conditions JAN -- -6 6 -- 02/08/2011 11:30 JN Bankruptcies (YoY) JAN -- -- -3.00% -- 02/08/2011 12:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey: Current JAN 45.5 -- 45.1 -- 02/08/2011 12:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook JAN -- -- 43.9 -- 02/08/2011 14:30 FR Bank of France Bus. Sentiment JAN 108 -- 108 -- 02/08/2011 14:45 FR Central Govt. Balance (Euros) DEC -- -- -140.7B -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.