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Investment Management


Portfolio of Dr. D.N Panigrahi
Senior Faculty Member @ IMT-Nagpur




    Group No.: 06 (SEC: AB)
          Ankit Gupta
          Anshul Garg
         Ayan Chatterjee
          Dhairya Gada
          Kallol Sarkar
Economic Analysis

Indian Economy: Outlook and Prospects: FY12 and FY13
We projects that India’s GDP growth in FY12 will be 6.5%, which is likely to rise to around 7% in
FY13 under certain assumptions made relating to the global economy and domestic policy
responses. Inflation on the other hand is to moderate to 7.5% in FY13 based on a good harvest and
stable global commodity prices.

The projection for the fiscal deficit for FY12 has been placed at 5.5% which is expected to range
between 5-5.5% in FY13 mainly due to pressure on the expenditure side. The RBI is expected to
lower interest rates in the course of the year, with the repo rate coming down by 100-150 bps. The
outlook further expects the rupee to remain volatile as euro conditions will remain in flux while the
domestic current account deficit will be under pressure at 4% of GDP which will still be an
improvement over the 4.5% deficit expected in FY12.

Growth expectations
GDP growth is to be driven mainly by the services sector which excludes any stimulus from the part
of the government. Overall growth is expected to be in the range of 6.5% in FY12. This is
creditable and would still be one of the highest in the world with only China, Argentina, and Turkey
being ahead.

Farm growth at around 3% will be major comfort for GDP growth and will also mean a second
successive harvest after the drought of FY10. Production is to be boosted mainly by cereals such as
rice and wheat and cash crops such as cotton, jute and sugarcane. This has provided both demand
for non-farm goods as well as supplies for the manufactured food products which has in turn helped
growth of industry.

Industrial production (including construction), which was to grow in the region of 6-7% for the year
would be fairly subdued even from the 7.1% projection made by the PMEAC in July. With fairly
volatile numbers so far this year and negative growth in October, overall projections have been
lowered to the range of 5%, which will still mean a substantial recovery in the last 4 months of the
year, which on a high base, will be an achievement. Major risks in this area are in the mining and
capital goods sector. For the former, policy action is required while for the latter, a revival in
investment is called for. Absence of affirmative action in areas such as reforms in mining, land,
insurance, pensions, banking, taxation etc. along with high interest rates have come in the way of
investment growth. While it is expected that we have reached the end of the interest rate cycle, the
progress on reforms is expected to be tardy till the first quarter of FY13. The service sector, with a
weight of around 60% in GDP will be the chief driver with growth of around 9% during the year.
Growth is expected to be broad based with only the government sector showing a slowdown.
Fiscal outcome
The fiscal deficit for FY12 will not meet the Budget’s target of 4.6% of GDP and would be higher
on account of revenue slippages and excess expenditure. Based on the revenue loss from indirect
taxes announced in mid -2011 as well as the higher government borrowings of over Rs 90,000 cr
announced by the RBI for the year, the ratio is to slip towards the 5.5% mark, assuming that there
are no further shocks.

The question marks remain over the progress of the disinvestment programme of Rs 40,000 cr (only
Rs 1,444 cr has been mobilized until now) and subsidy bill which has already overshot the budgeted
amount of around Rs 145,000 cr. While there are mechanisms being put in place for enabling the
disinvestment programme, it is uncertain as to what could be the level of success. Hence, the deficit
level of 5.5% of GDP is a more conservative estimate, which is subject to an increase if these
assumptions are violated. Also it should be noted that statistically the deficit ratio is being supported
by a higher denominator as the overall growth of GDP at current market prices would be between 2-
3% higher than was envisaged at the time of presentation of Budget 2011-12.

Inflation view
Inflation as given by the WPI will move towards the 7% mark earlier than expected and could touch
6-6.5% by March end on a point to point basis guided by negative food inflation. The present trend
of negative food inflation is being assisted by the base year effect which will wane by the end of the
year. However, pressure will continue to be exerted by core and fuel inflation as the international
crude prices will remain at the existing level which together with a weak rupee will exert pressure
on prices. The government at best will not increase petro product prices this financial year and take
on the additional cost aa part of the subsidy bill.

Monetary developments
Monetary indicators look to be weaker this year with growth in credit being 16% and deposits 18%.
Growth in deposits is well ahead of that in credit and will continue to be so for the rest of the year.
Surplus funds are being deployed in government paper thus enabling the government’s borrowing
programme.

Given the uncertainty over inflation, the RBI is unlikely to touch rates till March end even if the
inflation number declines to 6-7% before that as core inflation is a concern and the central bank has
to be certain that inflation will remain at lower levels before invoking an about turn in policy.

Policy action
While a CRR cut is possible to induce liquidity to ensure that the borrowing programme of the
government goes through, the RBI may prefer to use OMOs as a CRR cut is viewed as being rather
permanent, as a part of policy stance and reducing the same could send contradictory messages to
the markets. The RBI has been following an anti-inflationary policy stance since early 2010.
Liquidity will continue to be under pressure this year since, with credit growth also picking up to
support commerce there will be additional demand from both the government and industry. This
will keep G Sec yields steady and that on 10 -years will range between 8.2-8.5%. More borrowings
will increase supply of paper that will depress prices, and consequently move yields upwards.

External sector outlook
The external account will be under pressure till March 2012. The trade deficit has been widening
with growth in exports slowing down while imports continue to increase at a steady pace. This year
so far, remittances and software flows have provided support to the current account. With these
flows continuing to increase, albeit at a gradual pace, the current account deficit will in the range of
3.5% of GDP this year.

Capital receipts have in the past provided support to the current account deficit. However, this year,
FII flows have been just $ 6 bn till December and concentrated in debt. This number is not likely to
improve substantially and would at best be around $ 10-12 bn by the end of the year. FDI however
is the major supporting factor here, with around $ 20 bn coming in the first 7 months of the year.
The target of around $ 30 bn is likely to be achieved. In case of ECBs, the target of over $ 35 bn is
unlikely to be met, thus leading to pressure on the overall balance of payments and reserves. Given
the pressure on the balance of payments, the rupee will continue to be under pressure in the range of
Rs 50 -52/$ till March. However, any major shock in the global economy would change this range.

Outlook for 2012
The outlook for 2012 and further till March 2013 will be based on two sets of factors.

Global factors:
The world economy is in a state of flux with the euro rescue package still being implemented. The
recent downgrading of 9 nations has further added to the uncertainty with a possibility of further
default problems in Greece resurfacing. Assuming that there are no further failures in the euro
region and the rescue packages are to be implemented, there would be a tendency for countries to
resort to fiscal austerity which in turn will slow down these economies. Therefore, overall growth
here will be muted for a second successive year, and at around 0.5-1% compared with 1.5% in
2011. This would also be contingent on strong recovery in Germany and France. While ECB could
lower rates in the course of the year by up to 50 bps, it is unlikely to have a perceptible impact
given the fiscal concerns in most of these nations. This said, markets will continue to be volatile as
the debt ridden nations will continuously be under stress to service their debt which in turn will
affect sentiment that will be reflected mainly in the exchange rate with the dollar.

The USA, which will probably continue its upward movement from around 1.8-2% in 2011 to
between 2-2.5% in 2012, will not be able to propel the world economy on its own given that the
emerging markets will also be under strain especially so on account of high commodity inflation
which has invoked stringent monetary measures in these countries. Therefore, the overall global
performance, which will have a bearing on trade flows and capital movements, is likely to at best be
at present levels with marginal improvement towards the end of the year.

Domestic factors
Domestic economic developments will be largely driven by three sets of policy responses:
Monetary policy, Fiscal stance, and, Economic reforms. However, the starting point will be the
inflation direction as it has an overbearing impact on all policies. Inflation should be under control
during the year at around 5% assuming that global commodity prices stay stable, in particular oil.
 With the global economy moving at a slow rate, this is a reasonable assumption which in turn will
exert some control over imported inflation. The other caveat is a normal monsoon as this is one
factor which can tilt the scales. Further, the Ministry of Petroleum’s view on administered fuel
prices will also have a bearing on inflation as these products have a direct weight of around 7.5% in
the WPI and also influence prices of other products, especially food products through transport cost.
Keeping this factor as a constant, the following is the outlook for the Indian economy in FY13.

    • GDP growth to move upwards of the present rate of 7% towards the 7.5% mark
a. Agriculture to pose a modest 2-3% growth which will come over two very good years of farm
production. The base year effect will play a leading role in the final outcome.

b. Industrial growth will start moving up based more on consumption rather than investment
demand. The impact of high interest rates and inflation on investment first witnessed in FY12 will
continue to be a downside risk to industrial growth and this will slow down the recovery process. A
larger role of the government is envisaged in the new fiscal which will provide a stimulus to
industrial growth. Overall industrial growth would be in the 7-8% region in FY13 based on three
factors, the absence or delay of which will upset these projections. In fact growth would be more in
the 6-7% region in case of such slippage.

I. Base year effect provides a boost

ii. Interest rates are rolled back

iii. Government spending also increases

c. Services sector will continue to be the engine to growth with a lead of 9% which will be
supported by both the banking sector, retail space, transport and communication and more
 importantly the social and community services, which means more government spending.

   •   The government will have to weigh the overall external and internal environment while
       formulating the Budget. While the external environment is quite nebulous, the domestic
       economy deserves a push that can be provided by the government. It is expected that the
       focus will be on project expenditure this time to provide a boost to the infrastructure sector
       so that the linkages are forged. The deficit will be at between 5.0-5.5% of GDP based on
       assumptions of moderate inflation and growth for revenue targeting. A review of the anti-
       poverty programme as well as implementation of the Food Security Bill will pressurize
       resources and hence lowering the fiscal deficit level further will be a challenge. Also the
       disinvestment programme of the government will have to be scaled down given the
       uncertain times on the bourses.
•   Monetary policy will tend to be cautiously open with the repo rate to be lowered
    sequentially by 100-150 bps during the course of the year. The trigger would depend on
    when the core inflation number dips over the next three months. CRR cut would be invoked
    only in case of tight liquidity conditions prevail and would be in conjunction with the
    interest rate stance. Given that demand for funds is typically less compelling in the first
    quarter of the year, it would be considered only in case of a liquidity crunch in the second or
    third quarter of the year and will not be contrary to the interest rate stance.
•   G Sec yields will tend to move downwards, and the 10-year rate would move in the range of
    8.0-8.5% mark depending on overall liquidity conditions as well as the fiscal deficit.
    Liquidity will continue to be stable with some pressure and RBI intervention will be
    necessitated as larger government borrowing along with increase in domestic credit will put
    pressure on the banking system.
•   The rupee would be impacted by both global exchange rate movements as well as forex
    inflows. The dollar would tend to be stable vis-à-vis the euro, but given lower demand
    conditions in this region, there could be a tendency for the dollar to move in the range of $
    1.25-35/euro which will cause volatility from this end. Two factors will be at work: the
    nebulous euro region climate will make the euro weaker, while the recovery in USA
    accompanied by the growing current account deficit can make the dollar weaken. The
    current account deficit may be targeted at 3% of GDP with exports reviving, though the
    slowdown in euro region will continue to pressurize the deficit. Support through remittances
    and software would be required to prop up the external balance. While FDI will continue to
    increase FII flows will be marginally better given a recovery in the world economy. This
    will help to prop up the domestic stock markets too. The rupee will be in the range of Rs 48-
    52/$ during the year.
•   Concerns will remain on external debt and its composition as the debt to reserves ratio has
    exceeded 1 after a long time. Debt service especially that of short term loans will continue to
    be a concern going ahead.
Therefore, while a gradual recovery is expected in the economy in FY13-15 , it is contingent on
various other assumptions holding. More importantly, policy action would be the key. While easing
of rates and liquidity will be in accordance with broader monetary policy goals of inflation, the
government’s deficit will be critical as it will have to be a growth oriented budget, which gives
incentives where it is needed through taxes, spends money on infrastructure to provide a stimulus
and also meets its own social commitment expenditures.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS


Power Sector Analysis
The Indian Power Industry is one of the largest and most important industries in India as
it fulfills the energy requirements of various other industries. It is one of the most critical
components of infrastructure that affects economic growth and the well-being of our
nation.

India has the world’s 5th largest electricity generation capacity and it is the 6th largest
energy consumer accounting for 3.4% of global energy consumption. Due to the fast-
paced growth of the Indian economy, the country’s energy demand has grown at an
average of 3.6% p.a. over the past 30 years.
In India, power is generated by State utilities, Central utilities and Private players. The
share of installed capacity of power available with each of the three sectors can be seen
in the pie-chart below:




As per the latest Report of CEA (Central Electricity Authority) i.e. as on 31-03-2011, the
Total Installed Capacity of Power in India is 173626.40 MW. Of this, more than 75% of the
installed capacity is with the public sector (state and central), the state sector having the
largest share of 48%.

Thermal Power: - In India, major proportion of power is generated from thermal sources
where the main raw material used is coal. Around 83% of thermal power is generated using
coal as a raw material whereas 16% of thermal power is generated with the help of Gas and
1% of thermal power is generated with the help of Oil.

Hydro Power: - Hydroelectric power or hydroelectricity is electrical power which is generated
through the energy of falling water. India has hydro power generation potential worth
1,50,000 MW, of which only 25 % has been harnessed till date.

Nuclear Power: - A Nuclear Power Plant is a thermal power station in which the heat source
is one or more nuclear reactors. A nuclear reactor is a device to initiate and control a sustained
nuclear chain reaction. In the process, heat is generated which is then used to generate
electricity.
Renewable Energy Sources: – The energy obtained from renewable sources like sun, wind,
biomass can be converted into power. Renewable energy sources have great potential to
contribute to improving energy security of India and reducing green-house gas emissions.
India is among the five largest wind power generators in the world.




As seen in the graph below, there is a positive correlation between the GDP Growth rate and
the growth in Power Generation. As will be seen in the later part of this Shastra, India is
currently facing acute shortage of power. The Indian growth story looks positive which will
lead to higher economic growth and more demand for power. In order to sustain the growth in
GDP, India needs to add power generation capacity commensurate with this pace.
Plant Load Factor, a critical efficiency parameter in the power industry is a measure of the
actual output of a power plant compared to the maximum output it can produce.




The State sector, that has the highest installed capacity is the least efficient. The private sector
utilities have clocked good efficiency rates and the Central utilities have managed to achieve
competent efficiency rates. Going forward, with private players being encouraged to enter the
Power Sector, the state utilities will be required to work on improving their efficiency.

Looking at the table below, it can be clearly observed that hydro-power producers like NHPC
and SJVN operate at substantially higher profit margins than thermal power producers. This is
because thermal power producers are required to spend a lot on Fuel (Coal, Gas, Oil).

Looking at the companies with a diversified portfolio of power, NTPC is the largest company
(on Net Sales), but Tata Power has registered the highest growth rates in Sales and Net Profit.
Among hydro power producers, NHPC’s performance has been very good, its Net Profit
growing at a CAGR of 28%.
Investment Management
1)     Demand-Supply Gap: –




    India has always been a power-deficient country. The demand for power is huge in
    India. As seen in the above graph, the supply of power in India has not been able to meet
    its demand. Under the Government’s “Power for all by 2012” plan, it has targeted per
    capita consumption of 1000 kWh by the end of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-2012) as
    compared to levels of 734 kWh in 2008-09. In order to provide per capita availability of
    over 1000 kWh of electricity by year 2012, it is estimated that capacity addition of more
    than 1,00,000 MW would be required. This shows that huge capacity additions are
    required at good efficiency rates, indicating that the opportunities available in this sector
    are huge.

    2) Government: -
    The role of the Government in the development of Indian power industry has been very
    crucial. Government’s policies aim at protecting consumer interests and making the
    sector commercially viable. Government regulates this industry in various ways (Tariff
    control, Subsidies, environment norms, etc.) due to its linkages to various industries and
    to the growth of the economy.

    - Regulatory role of Government: - As far as regulation is concerned, Electricity Act,
    2003 is a very important Act as it allowed private sector participation in the generation
    of power, thus creating competition. It also allowed 100% FDI participation in the power
    generation, transmission and distribution, thus inducing investments in the power sector.

    - Government Schemes: - The Government is investing in this industry through various
    development schemes: -
o     The Rural Electrification Program is an effort to lighten up villages which have faced
    acute shortage of Power over the years.
o     ‘Power for All by 2012 plan aims at a per capita consumption of 1000kWh by the end
    of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12).
o     The Accelerated Power Development and Reform Program me (APDRP) program me
    is being implemented so that the desired level of 15 per cent AT&C (Aggregate
    Technical and Commercial) loss can be achieved by the end of 11th plan (Currently it is
    30%).

    - Projects under pipeline: - The Government of India is planning nine Ultra Mega Power
Projects (UMPP) of 4 GW each with an estimated individual investment of US$ 4 billion
(Rs. 192 billion). Four of these projects are expected to be commissioned between 2011
and 2017. The UMPP is an initiative by the government to collaborate with power
generation companies to set up 4,000 MW projects to ease the country’s power deficit
situation.
3) Raw Materials: -
Thermal power segment, which has the largest capacity generation share in the Indian
power industry, is dependent on inputs like coal, oil and gas for the generation of power.
Coal shortages and the low thermal quality of coal supplies cause disruptions in power
generation and result in lower plant load factors. When domestic supply of coal is
insufficient, coal is imported. This is unfavorable for power companies as it leads to rise
in                                                                                   costs.
With these problems associated with thermal power, the Power Companies enter in to
Long Term Agreements (LTA) with coal suppliers or acquire coal mines to ensure
regular supply of coal. Besides, currently coal players in India are adopting aggressive
strategies by acquiring Coal mines outside India. Domestically, a good number of coal
mines have received environmental clearances. Such actions will be beneficial for
thermal                                    power                                   players.
Gas-based power plant face problems because of shortages in gas supply. The
discoveries in the Krishna-Godavari Basin are expected to improve gas availability in
India which is a big positive for India’s gas-based plants.

4) Transmission and Distribution: –
Transmission of electricity is defined as the bulk transfer of power over a long distance
at a high voltage. Transmission and Distribution is as important as generation. The
capacity additions to meet India’s growing power demand should be supplemented by
adequate transmission infrastructure. Globally, every dollar invested in generation has an
equal amount invested in transmission and distribution. However, in India traditionally
every dollar invested in generation has a corresponding half a dollar invested in
transmission and distribution. Due to this, transmission capacity in India lags behind the
generation capacity. Huge investments are required in Transmission and Distribution if
India’s power sector is to meet the rising power demand.


5) FDI Equity Flows in Power Sector: -
In India, 100% FDI is allowed in the Generation, Transmission and Distribution
segments of the Power Sector. The FDI inflow in the Power Sector has been on the rise
in the last 5 years. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years considering the
huge opportunities available in the sector. FDI inflow is important for the power sector
because it brings in money and India’s power sector is in huge need of investments.
More importantly, FDI also brings in advanced technology making the sector more
efficient. Hence, this proves to be a major growth driver for the power sector.
6) Growth Drivers for Power from Nuclear, Hydro and Renewable Energy Sources: –
With the thermal power generation segment facing the issue of shortages of coal (major
raw material), other power generation sources like nuclear, hydro and renewable energy
sources will get attention in the coming years.

Nuclear power projects account for 2.75% of India’s total installed capacity which is
about 4.77 GW. The Planning Commission’s expert committee on an Integrated Energy
Policy has suggested in its report that there is a possibility of reaching a nuclear power
capacity of 21-29 GW by 2020 and 48-63 GW by 2030.
The hydro power segment offers investment opportunities as India is considered to have
hydro power generation potential worth 1,50,000 MW; of which only 25% has been
harnessed till date
Using renewable sources to generate electricity has several advantages like a perennial
energy source, potential for lower reliance on imported fossil fuels and lower CO2
emissions. However, at present the major hurdle facing rapid expansion of renewable
power is high initial cost as compared to the competing fuels. But taking in to
consideration the environmental concerns, this segment receives encouragement from
the Government. Its share in the country’s total generation capacity has increased from
1.1% in 2001-02 to 10.63% as on 31st March, 2011 and is expected to increase in the
future.
These three non-thermal sources of power also offer good investment opportunities.
Companies are diversifying their power portfolios to take advantage of opportunities
available in hydro power and renewable energy sources.

Power Sector is a highly capital-intensive industry with long gestation periods, before
the commencement of revenue generation. Since most of projects have a long time frame
(4-5 years of construction period and operating period of over 25 years), there are some
inherent risks which this sector faces.

Availability of Coal: -
Coal is the mainstay of the power production in India and is expected to remain so in the
future. India has limited coal reserves, plus, availability of domestic coal is a challenge
on account of various bottlenecks such as capacity expansion of Coal India Limited (the
largest coal producing company in the world, coal block allocation, tribal land
acquisition, environmental and forest clearances, etc.

Transportation of coal is a big concern in itself. Within the country, coal is transported
by Indian Railways and in case of imports; coal is to be unloaded at ports. In both cases,
India currently faces capacity shortage. Hence, a project developer has to account for
and manage its logistics chain in a manner that ensures regular fuel supply which is a big
challenge.
Dependence on Equipment Suppliers: -
The power sector is heavily dependent on Equipment suppliers. In fact, equipment
shortages have been a significant reason for India missing its capacity addition targets
for the 10th five year plan. While the shortage has been primarily in the core
components of boilers, turbines and generators, there has been lack of adequate supply
of Balance of Plant (BOP) equipment as well. These include coal handling, ash-handling
plants, etc. Apart from these, there is shortage of construction equipment as well. Hence,
inadequate supply of equipments is a cause of concern for the power companies.

Aggregate Commercial and Technical Losses: -
The Aggregate Technical and Commercial Loss (AT&C) is defined as the power lost
due to inefficient transmission and distribution infrastructure. India’s AT&C losses are
as high as 30% compared with 5-10% in the developed markets which means out of
every 100 units produced, 30 are lost during transmission and distribution. Technical
losses are due to inadequate investments over the years for system improvement works.
Commercial losses are mainly due to low metering efficiency, pilferage and theft of
power. This is a huge problem for the power sector.
Other Roadblocks leading to Demand Supply Gap: -
The power sector has other concerns like shortage of skilled manpower for construction
and commissioning of projects, contractual disputes between project authorities,
contractors and their sub-vendors, delay in readiness of balance of plants by the
executing agencies. Difficulties have been experienced by developers in land
acquisition, rehabilitation, environmental and forest – related issues, inter-state issues,
geological surprises (particularly for Hydro projects) and contractual issues. These issues
continue to pose challenges to maintain the pace of development of power projects.

India has stepped its development agenda and power is an inevitable element of
economic growth and development. Growth in the power sector is related to India’s
GDP growth rate and hence, in order to sustain the growth of 8-9% in GDP, India needs
to continuously add power generation capacity to commensurate with this pace.

Although, the Indian power sector is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world and
energy availability has increased by around 36% in the past 5 years, the demand for
power outstrips its supply. Nearly 60 crore Indians do not have access to electricity. The
energy and peaking deficits have been hovering around double digits for the past two
years and the condition might worsen in the coming years considering the huge demand
of power from India’s rising population and rapid industrialization and urbanization.
Hence, there is no slowing down of demand for the Power Sector, thus offering ample
scope for rapid capacity expansion.

The Government is investing in this industry through various development schemes like
Rajeev Gandhi Rural Electrification Program, ‘Power for all by 2012 and Accelerated
Power Development and Reform Programme (ARDRP), Ultra Mega Power Projects etc.
It has also been is encouraging participation of private players in this Sector.
Renewable energy sources are also being encouraged considering the growing
environmental concerns. Hence, the future prospects of nuclear power, hydro power and
power from renewable energy sources are also good

Looking at the above points, the long term future prospects of the Indian Power Sector
appear to be Green (Very Good).
It is very important that while investing in a company, an investor selects an industry,
where the long-term future prospects are bright. We have seen that in the long run the
Indian Power sector is expected to have good growth.


Banking Sector
Recently, the RBI took a few important steps to make the Indian Banking industry more
robust and healthy. This includes de-regulation of savings rate, guidelines for new
banking licenses and implementation of Basel Norm III. Since March 2002, Bankex
(Index tracking the performance of leading banking sector stocks) has grown at a
compounded annual rate of about 31%. After a very successful decade, a new era seems
to have started for the Indian Banking Industry. According to a Mckinsey report, the
Indian banking sector is heading towards being a high-performing sector




According to an IBA-FICCI-BCG report titled ‘Being five star in productivity – road
map for excellence in Indian banking’, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth
will make the Indian banking industry the third largest in the world by 2025. According
to the report, the domestic banking industry is set for an exponential growth in coming
years with its assets size poised to touch USD 28,500 billion by the turn of the 2025
from the current asset size of USD 1,350 billion (2010)”. So, before going in its future,
let’s have a glance at its historical performance.
If we look at 5 years historical performance of different types of players in the banking
industry, public sector bank has grown its deposits, advances and business per employee
by the highest rate – 21.7%, 23% and 21.1% respectively. As far as net interest income
is concerned, private banks are ahead in the race by reporting 24.2% growth, followed
by pubic banks (21.4%) and then by foreign banks (14.8%). Though the growth in the
business per employee and profit per employee has been the highest for public sector
banks, in absolute terms, foreign banks have the highest business per employee as well
as profit per employee.
In the last 5 years, foreign and private sector banks have earned significantly higher
return on total assets as compared to their pubic peers. If we look at its trend, foreign
banks show an overall decreasing trend, private banks an increasing trend and Public
banks have been more or less stagnant. The net NPA of public sector bank was also
significantly higher than that of private and foreign banks at the end of FY11, which
indicates the asset quality of public banks is comparatively poor. The Capital Adequacy
ratio was also very high for private and foreign bank as compared to public banks.

In conclusion, we could say that the current position of ROA, Net NPA and CAR of
different kinds of players in the industry indicates that going ahead, public banks will
have to face relatively more problems as compared to private and foreign banks.

After looking at industry performance, let’s see how the different players in the Banking
Industry have performed in the last five years
The table above indicates that overall the top private banks have grown faster than that
of public banks. Axis Bank, one of the new private sector bank, has shown the highest
growth in all parameters i.e. net interest income, deposits, advances, total assets and
book value. Among public sector banks, Bank of Baroda has been the outperformer in
the last five years.




Kotak Mahindra Bank has reported the highest 5-year average net interest margin and
currently, it also has the highest CAR whereas HDFC Bank has the highest CASA, the
lowest net NPA to net advances ratio and the highest five-year-average ROA. On the
other hand, India’s largest bank, SBI reported the lowest five-year-average ROA.
Currently, it has the highest net NPA to net advances ratio and the lowest CAR.
Looking at all of the above, it is expected that Private Banks are better placed to garner
growth in the Indian Banking Industry.

High growth of Indian Economy: The growth of the banking industry is closely linked
with the growth of the overall economy. India is one of the fastest growing economies in
the world and is set to remain on that path for many years to come. This will be backed
by the stellar growth in infrastructure, industry, services and agriculture. This is expected
to boost the corporate credit growth in the economy and provide opportunities to banks
to lend to fulfil these requirements in the future.
Rising per capita income: The rising per capita income will drive the growth of retail
credit. Indians have a conservative outlook towards credit except for housing and other
necessities. However, with an increase in disposable income and increased exposure to a
range of products, consumers have shown a higher willingness to take credit,
particularly, young customers. A study of the customer profiles of different types of
banks, reveals that foreign and private banks share of younger customers is over 60%
whereas public banks have only 32% customers under the age of 40. Private Banks also
have a much higher share of the more profitable mass affluent segment.
New channel – Mobile banking is expected to become the second largest channel for
banking after ATMs: New channels used to offer banking services will drive the growth
of banking industry exponentially in the future by increasing productivity and acquiring
new customers. During the last decade, banking through ATMs and internet has shown
a tremendous growth, which is still in the growth phase. After ATMs, mobile banking is
expected to give another push to this industry growth in a big way, with the help of new
3G and smart phone technology (mobile usage has grown tremendously over the years).
This can be looked at as branchless banking and so will also reduce costs as there is no
need for physical infrastructure and human resources. This will help in acquiring new
customers, mainly who live in rural areas (though this will take time due to technology
and infrastructure issues). The IBA-FICCI-BCG report predicts that mobile banking
would become the second largest channel of banking after ATMs.
Financial Inclusion Program: Currently, in India, 41% of the adult population don’t have
bank accounts, which indicates a large untapped market for banking players. Under the
Financial Inclusion Program, RBI is trying to tap this untapped market and the growth
potential in rural markets by volume growth for banks. Financial inclusion is the
delivery of banking services at an affordable cost to the vast sections of disadvantaged
and low income groups. The RBI has also taken many initiatives such as Financial
Literacy Program, promoting effective use of development communication and using
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to spread general banking concepts
to people in the under-banked areas. All these initiatives of promoting rural banking are
taken with the help of mobile banking, self help groups, microfinance institutions, etc.
Financial Inclusion, on the one side, helps corporate in fulfilling their social
responsibilities and on the other side it is fueling growth in other industries and so as a
whole economy.
More stringent capital requirements to achieve as per Basel III: Recently, the RBI
released draft guidelines for implementing Basel III. As per the proposal, banks will
have to augment the minimum core capital after a stringent deduction. The two new
requirements – capital conservative buffer(an extra buffer of 2.5% to reduce risk) and a
counter cyclical buffer (an extra capital buffer if possible during good times) – have also
been introduced for banks. As the name indicates that the capital conservative buffer can
be dipped during stressed period to meet the minimum regulatory requirement on core
capital. In this scenario, the bank would not be supposed to use its earnings to make
discretionary payouts such as dividends, shares buyback, etc. The counter cyclical
buffer, achieved through a pro-cyclical build up of the buffer in good times, is expected
to protect the banking industry from system-wide risks arising out of excessive
aggregate credit growth.




The above table reveals that even under current Basel Norm II, Indian banks follow
more stringent capital adequacy requirements than their international counterparts. For
Indian Banks, the minimum common equity requirement is 3.6%, minimum tier I capital
requirement is 6% and minimum total capital adequacy requirement is 9% as against
2%, 4% and 8% respectively recommended in the Basel II Norm. Due to this the capital
adequacy position of Indian banks is at comfortable level. So, going ahead, they should
not face much problem in meeting the new norms requirements. But as we saw earlier,
private sector banks and foreign banks have considerable high capital adequacy ratio,
hence are not expected to face any problem. But, public sector banks are lagging behind.
So, the Government will have to infuse capital in public banks to meet Basel III
requirements. With the higher minimum core Tier I capital requirement of 7-9.5% and
overall Tier I capital of 8.5-11%, Banks ROE is expected to come down.

Increasing non-performing and restructured assets: Due to a slowdown in economic
activity in past couple of years and aggressive lending by banks many loans have turned
non-performing. Restructuring of assets means loans whose duration has been increased
or the interest rate has been decreased. This happens due to inability of the loan taking
company/individual to pay off the debt. Both of these have impacted the profitability of
banks as they are required to have a higher provisioning amount which directly eats into
the profitability. The key challenge going forward for banks is to increase loans and
effectively manage NPAs while maintaining profitability.
Intensifying competition: Due to homogenous kind of services offered by banks, large
number of players in the banking industry and other players such as NBFCs, competition
is already high. Recently, the RBI released the new Banking License Guidelines for
NBFCs. So, the number of players in the Indian banking industry is going to increase in
the coming years. This will intensify the competition in the industry, which will decrease
the market share of existing banks.
Managing Human Resources and Development: Banks have to incur a substantial
employee training cost as the attrition rate is very high. Hence, banks find it difficult
manage the human resources and development initiatives.
Currently, there are many challenges before Indian Banks such as improving capital
adequacy requirement, managing non-performing assets, enhancing branch sales &
services, improving organization design; using innovative technology through new
channels and working on lean operations. Apart from this, frequent changes in policy
rates to maintain economic stability, various regulatory requirements, etc. are additional
key concerns. Despite these concerns, we expect that the Indian banking industry will
grow through leaps and bounds looking at the huge growth potential of Indian economy.
High population base of India, mobile banking – offering banking operations through
mobile phones, financial inclusion, rising disposable income, etc. will drive the growth
Indian banking industry in the long-term. The Indian economy will require additional
banks and expansion of existing banks to meet its credit needs.



CEMENT
India is the world’s second largest producer of cement. Indian cement industry has
outpaced the growth rates of other prominent industries in the country on the back of
factors, such as rising demand from the housing sector, increased activity in
infrastructure, and construction recovery. Recent industry developments and the
government supportive policies are attracting global cement giants and sparking off a
spate of mergers & acquisitions to spur growth.

Our report has found that, the Indian cement industry sustained its growth rate even in
the tough conditions of economic slowdown. Cement production is expected to increase
above 9% year-on-year during 2010-11 against the previous fiscal year. Almost every
cement major expanded their installed capacity in the backdrop of the government
backed construction projects as these projects have created strong demand for cement in
the country. Moreover, it is anticipated that the industry players will continue to increase
their annual cement output in coming years and the country’s cement production will
grow at a CAGR of around 12% during 2011-12 - 2013-14 to reach 303 Million Metric
Tons.

At the regional front, Southern Region (including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and
Karnataka) was leading the country in terms of cement production in 2009-10. Sufficient
raw material availability and various incentives provided by the state governments make
this region lucrative for investments. Numerous domestic and international cement
companies are striving hard to establish their production base in this region.

India' cement production increased by 6.7% to 230.50 million tonne in FY 2011-12, as
     s
against 4.5% increase to 216.0 million tonne in FY 2010-11. But the pace of growth has
been decelerating sharply in the recent times from robust 17.0% rise in November 2011
to modest 7.1% in March 2012. Still the second half has recorded much better growth
than the first half of FY 2011.12.

Cement dispatches of members of Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) improved
by 6.1% to 17.97 million tonne while their production grew by 5.2% to 17.91 million
tonne in March 2012. In FY 2011-12, the members of CMA recorded 6.3% rise in
cement production to 179.79 million tonne and 6.5% increase in cement dispatches to
178.90 million tonne. The cement production and dispatches of mini cement plants as
well as that of Holcim group companies, ACC and Ambuja Cement are not part of data
provided by CMA.

India recorded impressive 10% growth in demand for cement in the quarter ended March
2012, as against a nominal growth of 5.6% in the nine months ended December 2011,
over the same period of the previous year. Southern region remains plagued with over
capacity, but here too there are signs of improvement in demand. In the southern region,
the demand for cement improved by 9.4% in the quarter ended March 2012, as against
3% fall in demand during the nine months ended December 2011, as per India Cements.

Ambuja Cements indicated that the cement demand over the last few months have been
robust, backed by revival in infrastructure and construction activities. But the company
cautioned that despite improved realization, the cost-push from higher energy cost and
rail freight increase is expected to keep the profit margin under pressure.

Financial performance

ACC'    consolidated revenues during the quarter were up 18% to Rs 3044.95 crore mainly
due to 20% growth in cement business to Rs 2854.94 crore which forms 94% of
revenues. OPM worsened by 140bps to 21.3% mainly due to rise in power, fuel and
utilities costs despite fall in purchase of traded cement, employee and raw material costs
as % to sales which led to only 10% rise in operating profits to Rs 647.73 crore. PAT
was down by 57% to Rs 151.55 crore during the quarter despite higher other income as
there was an EO of Rs 335.38 crore related to change in depreciation policy from
straight line to written down value on captive power plants. While the company' results
                                                                                      s
benefited from better volumes during the quarter, manufacturing costs and realizations
were affected by steep escalations in the cost of inputs such as coal, fly ash and gypsum.
The cost of transportation also rose significantly as a result of the hike in rail freight and
increase in diesel prices.

Another Holcim group Company, Ambuja Cement posted 23% de-growth in net profits
to Rs 312.22 crore on 20% growth in revenues to Rs 2660.93 crore during the quarter
ended March 2012. OPM improved by 80 basis points to 29% which led to 23% rise in
operating profits to Rs 772.1 crore. PBT before EO was up by 29% to Rs 721.48 crore
due to significant increase in other income and comparatively lower increase in
depreciation charges. There was an EO expense of Rs 279.13 crore on account of
onetime charge arising out of change in depreciation policy from fair value to written
down value on captive power plants against nil and effective tax jumped by 200 basis
points to 29% leading to 23% de-growth in PAT to Rs 312.22 crore. Profit after tax for
the current quarter would have been higher by Rs 195.29 crore to Rs 507 crore, if the
company continued to use the earlier method of depreciation. This change would have
no effect on EBITDA and cash profit for the quarter ended March 2012.
Aditya Birla group Company Ultratech Cement recorded 19% rise in Net Sales to Rs
5391.57 crore for quarter ended March 2012. Operating margins improved by 60bps to
24.5% due to decline in freight& transport, employees and consumption of raw materials
costs as % of sales. The resulting operating profits grew by 22% to Rs 1319.1 crore.
While other income jumped by 225% to Rs 145 crore during the quarter, interest
expenses declined by 29% to Rs 58.56 crore and depreciation rose at a marginally lower
rate of 3% to Rs 233.21 crore thereby leading to 43% growth in PBT to Rs 1172.3 crore
but 1500bps increase in tax rate to 26% moderated PAT growth to 19% to Rs 867.32
crore.

The results of Ultratech Cement for the year ended 31st March 2011 have been recasted
to include Samruddhi Cement Limited' performance for the period 1st April 2010
                                         s
to 30th June 2010 for a like-for-like comparison. The results are strictly not comparable
with the corresponding period of the previous year. Based on re-casted figures, for the
financial year ended March 2012, Net Sales increased to Rs 18166 crore against Rs
15406 crore in FY11. PBIDT also increased to Rs 4519 crore compared to Rs 3453
crore. PAT increased from Rs 1719 crore to Rs 2446 crore.

India Cements, the southern cement major has registered 17% increase in net profit to Rs
64.92 crore during the quarter ended March 2012 on 12% growth in sales to Rs 1118.48
crore. The growth was backed by a smart recovery in the selling prices and sustained
efforts on cost reduction through better blending and reduction of power and fuel
consumption.

The growth was backed by a smart recovery in the selling prices and sustained efforts on
cost reduction through better blending and reduction of power and fuel consumption.

This performance was backed by an improved selling price and sustained efforts on cost
reduction through better blending and operating parameters. There was flat growth in
demand in South, which together with the capacity addition in the region forced lesser
capacity utilization of the industry. The rise at the bottom line was led by smart
improvement in operating performance since OPM jumped by 140bps to 19.5% due to
fall in Raw material as well as Transportation costs despite increase in Power& Fuel and
staff costs with operating profits subsequently up by 20% to Rs 217.64 crore.

FY12 sales of India cements grew 20% to Rs 4215.19 crore. OPM jumped by 910bps to
21.7% leading the operating profits growth by 107% to Rs 915.14 crore. Net profit grew
330% to Rs 292.97 crore on the back of muted increase in depreciation charges.

Production and dispatch numbers

During the quarter, Ultratech' combined cement and clinker sales of grey cement were
                             s
11.54 MMT (10.70 MMT), for white cement 1.6 LMT (1.5 LMT) and for wall care putty
1.1 LMT (0.8LMT). During the year, the combined cement and clinker sales of grey
cement was 40.73 MMT (39.74 MMT), for white cement 5.6 LMT (5.5 LMT) and for
wall care putty 3.7 LMT (2.9 LMT).

During the 4 th quarter, India cements produced 19.66 lakh tons of clinker (17.77 lakh
tons), the cement production was at 25.11 lakh tons (24.72 lakh tons) and achieved a sale
of 25.28 lakh tons as compared to 25.32 lakh tons. The clinker sale was at 0.72 lakh tons
as compared to 0.17 lakh tons.

Other developments

Ultratech' initiative towards setting up of additional clinkerisation plants at Chhattisgarh
         s
and Karnataka together with grinding units, bulk packaging terminals and ready mix
concrete plants is progressing on schedule and are expected to be operational from early
FY14. Consequently, the company' cement capacity will be enhanced by 10.2 mtpa.
                                    s

In July 2011, Orient Paper and Industries indicated that it would hive off its cement
division to a wholly owned subsidiary Orient Cement, which will subsequently be listed.
In FY 2011-12, the company derived 56% of revenues from cement, 30% from electric
fans and 14% from paper and boards. The company reported 26% rise total income to Rs
2512.93 crore and 48% rise in net profit to Rs 212.28 crore. The company indicated that
the cement division, proposed to be hived off into Orient Cement, recorded profit of Rs
237.81 crore in FY 2011-12. Thus, the hived off cement entity' profit is more than the
                                                                s
profit of the pre-restructuring cement cum paper cum electric fan entity! This is due to
overwhelming losses in its paper division.

Cement demand recorded better growth in the quarter ended March 2012

The growth in cement demand has registered a marginal improvement to 6.6% as against
4.7% in the previous year as per the information furnished by CMA. However further
analysis reveal that during the last quarter of this year, the demand had moved up by an
impressive 10% as compared to a nominal growth of 5.6% in the previous nine months.
Similarly in south, the demand improved by 9.4% in the last quarter as opposed to a
negative growth of 3% during first 9 months of the fiscal. While the all India capacity
utilization was at 75%, the utilization of the industry in south was only 63% though the
company achieved a 67% utilization.

Economic growth to facilitate acceleration in cement consumption

India cements indicated that as the Prime Minister' Economic Advisory Council has
                                                    s
projected a GDP growth of 7.5 to 8% for the year 2012-13, we can minimum expect
similar growth in cement demand. In addition, there are certain positive developments
on the global front, with the US economy estimated to grow by 2% in 2012 and forward
looking indicators of OECD showing improvement in the advanced countries'outlook
and prospects.

With the industrial sector showing signs of revival in the last quarter and given the
government' intention to boost the agricultural development and a fillip to industrial
            s
growth, the projected growth in GDP could well be achievable. The recent proposal of
the Reserve Bank of India in its Credit Policy to reduce Repo rates by 50 basis points is
also expected to soften the housing loan interest rates which also augur well for the
industry' growth prospects.
        s
Total production
The cement industry comprises of 125 large cement plants with an installed capacity of
148.28 million tonnes and more than 300 mini cement plants with an estimated capacity
of 11.10 million tonnes per annum. The Cement Corporation of India, which is a Central
Public Sector Undertaking, has 10 units. There are 10 large cement plants owned by
various State Governments. The total installed capacity in the country as a whole is
159.38 million tonnes. Actual cement production in 2002-03 was 116.35 million tonnes
as against a production of 106.90 million tonnes in 2001-02, registering a growth rate of
8.84%. Major players in cement production are Ambuja cement, Aditya Cement, J K
Cement and L & T cement. Apart from meeting the entire domestic demand, the industry
is also exporting cement and clinker. The export of cement during 2001-02 and 2003-04
was 5.14 million tonnes and 6.92 million tonnes respectively. Export during April-May,
2003 was 1.35 million tonnes. Major exporters were Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd. and
L&T Ltd. The Planning Commission for the formulation of X Five Year Plan constituted
a 'Working Group on Cement Industry'for the development of cement industry. The
Working Group has identified following thrust areas for improving demand for cement;



Further push to housing development programmes; Promotion of concrete Highways and
roads; and Use of ready-mix concrete in large infrastructure projects. Further, in order to
improve global competitiveness of the Indian Cement Industry, the Department of
Industrial Policy & Promotion commissioned a study on the global competitiveness of
the Indian Industry through an organization of international repute, viz. KPMG
Consultancy Pvt. Ltd. The report submitted by the organization has made several
recommendations for making the Indian Cement Industry more competitive in the
international market. The recommendations are under consideration.

Cement industry has been decontrolled from price and distribution on 1st March 1989
and de-licensed on 25th July 1991. However, the performance of the industry and prices
of cement are monitored regularly. Being a key infrastructure industry, the constraints
faced by the industry are reviewed in the Infrastructure Coordination Committee
meetings held in the Cabinet Secretariat under the Chairmanship of Secretary
(Coordination). The Committee on Infrastructure also reviews its performance.

Technological change
Continuous technological upgrading and assimilation of latest technology has been
going on in the cement industry. Presently 93 per cent of the total capacity in the
industry is based on modern and environment-friendly dry process technology and only
7 per cent of the capacity is based on old wet and semi-dry process technology. There is
tremendous scope for waste heat recovery in cement plants and thereby reduction in
emission level. One project for co-generation of power utilizing waste heat in an Indian
cement plant is being implemented with Japanese assistance under Green Aid Plan. The
induction of advanced technology has helped the industry immensely to conserve energy
and fuel and to save materials substantially.

India is also producing different varieties of cement like Ordinary Portland Cement
(OPC), Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement (PBFS),
Oil Well Cement, Rapid Hardening Portland Cement, Sulphate Resisting Portland
Cement, White Cement etc. Production of these varieties of cement conform to the BIS
Specifications. Also, some cement plants have set up dedicated jetties for promoting
bulk transportation and export.

After posting the poorest show in a decade in 2010-11, at sales growth of less than five
per cent, India’s cement industry put up a better performance in financial year 2011-12,
thanks to the robust demand revival in the second half of the year.

The 330-million-tonne industry grew 6.4 per cent against less than five per cent in FY11.
This was better than the cement makers’ earlier estimates of six per cent. However, later
in the year when demand revived, industry officials and sector analysts turned positive,
with growth projections of 6.5-7 per cent. The industry sold 223.02 million tonnes of the
building material, compared with 209.5 million tonnes in FY11. Production, too, rose to
223.6 million tonnes against 210.5 million tonnes, up 6.2 per cent.
During the first half of the year (April-September), the industry managed to grow a mere
3.23 per cent. However, the strong revival in demand from the third quarter of FY12
helped cement makers raise prices, which improved their profitability. In November, the
industry notched up sales growth of 19.5 per cent (one of the highest in many years in a
month). Though, the demand growth later tapered, it remained in double digits till
February. It was during this time that prices hit an all-time high of Rs 300 for a 50-kg
bag. This level prevails even now.

“The industry witnessed demand rise across the country. In particular, western, central
and northern regions were the main contributors for strong demand revival,” says the
research head of a Mumbai-based brokerage.
However, the ending month of FY12 could not remain in line with the earlier few
months, as sales dipped to single-digit. In March, the industry sold 22.5 million tonnes, a
rise of 7.5 per cent against the corresponding month last year.

Going forward, industry officials are optimistic and project growth at eight to nine per
cent. The Holcim group of companies — ACC and Ambuja Cements — have chalked
out expansion plans worth Rs 5,000 crore, while Aditya Birla Group’s UltraTech
Cement has plans to add 25 million tonnes of capacity in the next few years.

According to the latest report from the working group on the industry for the 12th five-
year Plan (2012-17), India would require overall cement capacity of around 480 million
tonnes. This would mean the industry will have to add another 150 million tonnes of
capacity during the period.

Currently, the top players — UltraTech, ACC, Ambuja Cements, Jaiprakash Associates,
India Cements — and Shree Cement, collectively control more than half of the cement
market in the country. There are 40 players in the industry across the country.


Outlook

According to Ultratech, the cement industry is likely to grow over 8 per cent linked to
the Government' focus on infrastructure development. The surplus scenario is likely to
                 s
continue for the next three years. Moreover, continuing rise in input costs will adversely
impact margins.

The current quarter is set to remain better for cement sector due to decent growth in
demand, elevated cement prices and effective reduction in excise duties. Part of these
gains will be lost due to higher cost of fuel and power, though off late the global coal
prices are also easing. With massively expanded capacities, better growth in demand will
be the only panacea for the Indian cement industry, which battles low capacity
utilization, elevated costs and allegations of cartelization.


Pharma: Growth momentum would sustain

In Global Pharmaceutical market, generics segment growth continues to outpace branded
drugs, with several blockbuster drugs like Lipitor, Zyprexa, Geodon, Seroquel, Plavix,
Combovir and Actos recently lost patent. The patent expiries are expected to peak out in
2012 and expected to steadily decline by the 2015.

Notably, the Indian Pharmaceutical market is on the path of becoming a major global
market and is one of the major growth drivers in the Asian subcontinent apart from
china. The year 2011 was another year of robust growth for the Indian Pharmaceutical
industry as it grew by 15%, reaching a market size of more than Rs 60000 crores. This
high growth rate is attributable to the increase in investment by the market players, high
penetration into the rural areas, increasing purchasing power of the consumers and
improving availability of healthcare facilities. The anti-infective were the highest
contributor to the Indian Pharmaceutical market (in terms sales) but the chronics
therapies steadily picking its share. The chronic therapies like Cardiology, GI, Derma,
Diabetes continue to outgrow the market.

On the CRAMS front, The Indian players are focusing on providing services across the
value chain spanning from development stage to commercial scale production. Also,
with the several drugs going off patent and big Pharma increasing their exposure to cost
efficient sourcing locations, opportunities remain favorable for Indian CRAMS players.

The Aggregate sales of 153 Pharmaceuticals companies grew by 17% YoY in Q1' 13   FY
to Rs 22094 crore driven by 17% sales growth in domestic players to Rs 20532 crore.
Notably, the growth was on the back of continued upside from First-to-File products
such as Lipitor, Caduet, Geodon and Plavix etc in US market for the Indian frontline
players coupled with strong growth from domestic market. Generally, The first generic
applicant to file a paragraph IV certification is awarded 180-day market exclusivity
period by the USFDA is also called First-to-Files. Also, the depreciation (YoY) of INR
against major currencies such as USD (26%), GBP (22%), EURO (9%) and JPY (28%)
helped the top line growth.

The Pharma sector' operating profit margins fell by sharp 440 bps YoY to 17.7% on the
                    s
back of increased staff costs coupled with higher R&D spends. Eventually, Operating
profit declined by 7% YoY to Rs 3914 crore. After the 8% growth in other income to Rs
540 crore, Profit before interest depreciation and tax was down by 5% YoY to Rs 4454
crore. With the sharp 103% rise in interest cost to Rs 1171 crore (factors forex losses)
and 14% increase in depreciation to Rs 832 crore, Profit before Tax was down by 28%
YoY to Rs 2451 crore. Further, after the steep rise in effective tax rate by 780 bps YoY
to 24.2% net profit was down by 34% YoY to Rs 1858 crore.

During the quarter, The 147 domestic Pharma companies grew by robust 17% YoY to
Rs 20532 crore. However, operating profit margins fell by 420 bps YoY to 17.6% on the
back higher staff cost coupled with the elevated R&D expenditure. Accordingly,
operating profit declined by 6% to Rs 3609 crore. After 7% growth in other income to
Rs 459 crore, PBIDT was lower by 5% YoY to Rs 4069 crore. With the sharp 103% rise
in interest cost to Rs 1170 crore and 13% increase in depreciation to Rs 804 crore, PBT
fell by 30% YoY to Rs 2094 crore. Further, after the sharp rise in effective tax rate by
880 bps YoY to 23% net profit of the domestic players was down by 37% to Rs 1613
crore.

Among the frontline players Cipla come up with standout performance on the back of
excellent growth from domestic business coupled with robust growth in export business
(upside from Lexapro and Vancocin opportunities) during the quarter. Also, Sun
Pharmaceuticals posted another excellent quarter on the back of continued upsides from
the Lipodox sales, robust growth from Taro Pharma coupled with currency tailwinds.

Ranbaxy laboratories posted excellent growth in top line driven by strong sales from
exclusive products (Lipitor and Caduet) coupled with continued good growth from the
base business. However, the bottom-line has turned to deep red on account of higher
forex losses during the quarter. The generic Lipitor touched peak market share of 50%
and generic caduet 55% during the exclusivity period, which ended on May 29th 2012.
Further, It expects to maintain the leadership Atorvastatin market with 40% market share
against the Indian and International competitors going forward. Also, The US base
business further strengthened to around USD 80-85 million during the quarter and
expected to grow to US 100 million by the Q1'   CY13.

Lupin has come up with robust growth in the top line and the bottom-line despite higher
effective tax rate during the quarter. The healthy growth in sales driven by the sharp
growth from US, Japan coupled with good growth from domestic market. Also,
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals started the fiscal with moderate performance. However, The
elevated R&D expenditure at Biocon continues to hit margins. Notably, The India'      s
leading CRAMS major Divis Laboratories has come up with another robust
performance.

However, revenues from 6 MNC players grew by moderate 11% YoY to Rs 1562 crore
for the quarter ended June 2012. Also, margins fell by sharp 550 bps YoY to 19.5% and
accordingly there was 14% decline in operating profit to Rs 305 crore. After the 13%
growth in other income to Rs 81 crore, Profit before interest depreciation and tax was
down by 9% YoY to Rs 385 crore. With no interest cost and after the 100% rise in
depreciation to Rs 28 crore, PBT was lowered by 13% YoY to Rs 357 crore. But after
the decline in effective tax rate by 100 bps YoY to 31.4%, the net profit for the 6 MNC
players was lower by 12% YoY to Rs 245 crore.

In the quarter ended June 2012, the Indian pharma benefited from continued upside from
FTFs (Lipitor, Caduet, Geodon, Plavix etc) in the US market, coupled with currency
tailwinds and as well good growth in domestic formulation market. Further, the large
number of patent expiries continues to offer strong growth prospects for generic players
in the developed markets going forward. Notably, The patent expiries are expected to
peak out in 2012 and the growth momentum would sustain as most of Indian companies
have fairly well spread product pipeline till 2014.

The Indian front line players have healthy pipeline of First-to-File (FTF) opportunities
and few other are likely to benefit from the launch of niche, limited competition
products. Over the years, the quality of filings by the major Indian companies
significantly improved with complex molecules, non-orals (i.e. inhalers, injectables, oral
    contraceptive, ophthalmic etc) and Para IV/FTFs forming the increased share of the
    pipeline.

    Outlook

    The large number of patent expiries continues to offer strong growth prospects for the
    Indian frontline players in the developed markets. The growth momentum would sustain
    going forward as patent expiries are expected to peak out in 2012 with fairly well spread
    product pipeline. Also, The September 2012 quarter would witness upside from recent
    launches such as generic Actos and Singulair. Going forward the major generic launches
    to look for are Diovan, Tricor and Propecia during the current fiscal.

    Further, the Key challenges to the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry are increasing
    competitive pressure in the chronic segments, aggressive approach such as authorized
    generic by the innovators in the US, healthcare reforms in the European markets and
    possible implementation of the new pricing policy in India. Also, The US FDA (Food
    and Drug Administration) is expected to implement Generic Drug User Fee Act
    (GDUFA) program will from October 1st 2012. This would increase the costs for the
    generic players but will speed up the approval process for Abbreviated New Drug
    Application (ANDA' by the US FDA.
                        s)



    Textile:

    Textiles: Effective excise duty on branded garments eased slightly, but excise duty on
    MMF rose Union Budget has given mixed bag of response for the recommendations of
    Textile Industry. Some of the provisions in the budget that could have a direct and
    indirect bearing on the Textile and Clothing Industry are as follows.

    Budget Provisions:

•     The central plan outlay for the Textile Ministry was increased by 27% to Rs 7000 crore
    for FY2012-13 against revised plan expenditure of Rs 5503.30 crore in FY2011-12. The
    Total Plan and Non-plan expenditure for the Textile Ministry increased 23% to Rs
    7836.41 crore for FY2012-13 against Rs 6445.57 crore in the revised estimates of
    FY2011-12.
•     The revised estimates for allocation of TUFS stood at Rs 3529.67 crore for FY2011-12
    against budgeted estimates of Rs 2980 crore. Government has extended Technology Up
    gradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) for 12 th five-year plan. In this context, it has allocated
    plan outlay of Rs 2775.80 crore under TUFS for FY 2012-13, down by 21% on y-o-y
    basis. This scheme provides for reimbursement of 5% out of interest actually charged by
    the lending agencies for facilitating investments in modernization of Textile Jute
    Industries.
•     Government has announced a financial package of Rs 3884 crore for waiver of loans of
    handloom weavers and their co-operative societies. Of this Rs 2205 crore has been
    allocated for revival reforms and restructuring package for Handloom sector. Under this
    scheme fund is being provided for repayment of 100% of principal and 25% of interest
    as on date of loan becoming NPA and which is overdue as on 31 March 2010 in respect
of viable and potentially viable weavers with an overall ceiling of Rs 50,000 per
    individual beneficiary.
•     Further, to provide technical support for poor handloom weavers, it has proposed to set
    up Three Weavers Service Centers – one each in Mizoram, Nagaland and Jharkhand. It
    has also proposed to set up two more mega handloom clusters one to cover Prakasam
    and Guntur districts in Andhra Pradesh and another for Godda and neighboring districts
    in Jharkhand.
•     One power loom mega cluster to be set up in Ichalkaranji in Maharashtra; with budget
    allocation of Rs 70 crore.
•     A pilot scheme for promotion and application of Geo Textiles in the Northeastern
    region is proposed for 12th five-year plan with an outlay of Rs 500 crore.
•     Proposal to provide weighted deduction at 150 per cent of expenditure incurred on skill
    development in manufacturing sector

    Excise Duty:

•     Government in the Union budget FY2012/13 has increased Standard rate of excise duty
    from 10% to 12%. Thus the excise duty on the manmade fiber products would be
    increased from 10% to 12%. Consequently, merit rate of 5% is being enhanced to 6%
    while 1% excise duty applicable on 130 items is also being enhanced to 2% with a few
    exceptions.
•     The excise duty on readymade garments bearing a brand name or sold under a brand
    name is being enhanced to 12%. The rate of abatement on such readymade garments is
    being increased from 55 % to 70%. Hence, the tariff value for purposes of charging duty
    would be @ 30% of the retail sale price.

    Customs Duty:

•     Basic customs duty on Wool Waste (CTH 5103) is being reduced from 10% to 5% and
    that of Wool Tops (CTH 5105) is being reduced from 15% to 5%.
•     Basic Customs duty Aramid thread/ Yarn/ fabric (Speciality Threads) for manufacture
    of Bullet proof helmets for Defence and Police personnel is being reduced from 10% to
    Nil with Nil CVD and Nil SAD.
•     Full exemption from basic customs duty exemption is being provided to shuttle less
    looms, parts/components of shuttle less looms by actual users for manufacture, specified
    silk machinery viz. Automatic reeling silk reeling and processing machinery and their
    accessories including cocoon assorting machines, cocoon peeling machines, vacuum
    permeation machine, cocoon cooking machine, reeled silk humidifier, bale press and raw
    silk testing equipments.
•     The concessional 5% duty available to specified textile machinery under erstwhile
    Notification No. 21/2002-Customs dated 1.3.2002, superseded by Notification no.12/12-
    Customs dated 17th March, 2012 is being restricted only to the new textile machinery.
    Consequently second hand machinery would attract 7.5% basic customs duty.

    Budget Impact

    Extension of TUFS for the 12th five-year plan is welcoming for the Textile Industry.
    However, the allocation has been reduced by 21% in FY13. Cheer on allowing the
    concessional 5% duty on only new machines is offset by the 7.5% customs duty on the
    second hand machinery. Mostly, textile industry imports second hand machines for their
capacity building at lower capex. This may have a negative impact on weaving and
processing industry in the midst of / or planning expansion. Further, the industry
recommendation of bringing in neutral fiber policy is kept aside with increase in the
excise duty on MMF. The Industry expectation on cut of excise duty on the branded
apparel was half met. While the excise duty has increased, the government has increased
abatement there by cutting the effective tax from 4.5% earlier to 3.6%.

Companies to watch:

Aditya Birla Nuvo, Raymond, Page Industries, S Kumar Nation Wide, Provogue, Kewal
Kiran, Arvind Mills, JBF Industries, Century Enka, Garden Silk Mill, ESI, Himatsingika
Seide etc

Outlook

Union Budget has been mixed bag for the textile industry. While the government has
extended its helping hand for unorganized handloom industry by financial package and
loan waiver scheme; the concerns of spinning, weaving and processing industry left
unanswered. On the other hand, extension of TUFS scheme is a breather to the industry.
However, the effective marginal reduction in the excise duty on branded apparel was
way short of industry expectations. Increase in excise duty on MMF products will
further squeeze the already wafer thin margins of the MMF industry, which is hit by
spike in crude oil based derivatives and sluggish demand.
COMPANY ANALYSIS



Torrent Power
Torrent Power Ltd. is an India-based company engaged in the electricity generation, transmission
and distribution. Torrent Power is one of the leading brands in the Indian power sector, promoted by
the Rs. 9592 crore Torrent Group. The Torrent Group is a multifaceted and dynamic group,
dedicated to transforming life by serving two of its most critical needs - pharma and power. Torrent
Power is the most experienced private sector player in Gujarat. Torrent Power foresaw the prospects
in the power sector much before the liberalization, when it took-over an ailing power cable
company in 1989 (now known as Torrent Cables Limited) and successfully turned it around. The
high points of Torrents foray into power by the acquisitions of two of the India’s oldest utilities.
The Surat Electricity Company Ltd and The Ahmedabad Electricity Company Ltd. Torrent turned
them into first rate power utilities in terms of operational efficiencies and reliability of power
supply.

Torrent Power Ltd. has reported net profit of Rs 2127.60 million for the quarter ended on December
31, 2011 as against Rs. 1975.40 million in the same quarter last year, an increase of 7.70%. It has
reported net sales of Rs 18944.50 million for the quarter ended on December 31, 2011 as against Rs
15587.30 million in the same quarter last year, a rise of 21.54%. Total income grew by 21.21% to
Rs.19150.10 million from Rs.15799.20 million in the same quarter last year. During the quarter, it
reported earnings of Rs 4.50 a share.

During the quarter, net sales increase by 21.54% to Rs. 18944.50 million from Rs.15587.30 million
in the previous quarter and Total Profit for the quarter ended December 2011 was Rs. 2127.60
million grew by 7.70% from Rs. 1975.40 million compared to quarter ended December 2010. The
Basic EPS of the company is stood at Rs. 4.50 for the quarter ended December 2011 from Rs. 4.18
for the quarter ended December 2010.

At the current market price of Rs.219.00, the stock is trading at 8.59 x FY12E and 7.35 x FY13E
respectively. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY12E and FY13E is
seen at Rs.25.51 and Rs.29.78 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to
grow at a CAGR of 16% and 19% over 2010 to 2013E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA,
the stock trades at 4.27 x for FY12E and 3.75 x for FY13E. Price to Book Value of the stock is
expected to be at 1.73 x and 1.40 x respectively for FY12E and FY13E. We expect that the
company will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend BUY in this
particular scrip with a target price of Rs 247 for medium to long term investment.
Torrent Power



                            EPS




         201303(E)
                                                                   !
     "       #    $           !




           Year          Stock Price   Sensex   Stock Ret.   Market Ret.


                                                  % !           % !
                                                      !           !
                                                  % !             !
                                                  % !           % !
                                                    !             !


Beta        2.84341
Rf                   !
Em                   !
Er                   !
& ' ()*
 Current Market Price        155

Since the intrinsic value of Share is more than the market value, therefore the share is undervalued and
worth buying.


+ '   ')*     )* &-
               ,& %
Investment Management
IFL is bullish on Aditya Birla Nuvo and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of
Rs 940 in its March 1, 2012 research report. Aditya Birla Nuvo has confirmed trend reversal after
prices closed above 200 DMA with spurt in volumes. This breakout has happened after long s
consolidation which formed like a rounding saucer pattern. The amplitude of breakout indicates
near term target beyond 1000 levels corroborated with positive crossover in daily RSI. The MACD
has been also sustaining above the reference line thus supporting buying momentum in the counter.
We recommend buying Aditya Birla Nuvo above Rs890 with stop loss of Rs865 for Target of
Rs940. (Duration 7 days), says IIFL research report.




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Madras Cements
Company Analysis :- Madras Cements (MCL), a flagship company of the Ramco group, is a major
player in the blended cement category in south India. The company was incorporated in the year
1957. MCL is the sixth largest cement producer, fifth largest in Market Capitalization in the country
and the second largest in South India.


The Company undertook to replace the 4 cement mills at its Ramasamyraja Nagar Works, which
were 20 years old, by a single new Combidan Cement Mill. The mill was commissioned at end of
the year 1985. A 132 KVA sub-station and the limestone crushing plant were installed during the
same year. The project was commissioned during December of the year 1986. Two D.G. sets were
installed in the middle of the year 1988 to meet 60% of the unit' power requirement at
                                                                s
Jayanthipuram. The Company had set up the 4 MW windmill farm in the year 1992 at Muppandal,
Kanyakumari district, Tamil Nadu. Asia' largest one to be commissioned in the Private sector was
                                      s
set up. All the 16 wind turbines of the company were commissioned in March of the year 1993. In
the same year 1993, an additional capacity was created by adding 8 Nos. wind turbines of 250 KW
each at Muppandal wind mill farm taking the generation capacity to 6 MW. During the year 1994,
MCL had upgraded the capacity of its Jayanthipuram Unit to 1.1 million tonnes and also upgraded
the cement mills capacity in R. R. Nagar. The Company substantially increased the capacity of
windmills by installation of 70 more windmills. In the year 1995, the company enhanced power
generation capacity at Jayanthipuram unit to 15.3 MW by commissioning an additional diesel
generator set to maintain normal production in view of frequent power-cut and power tripping.
During the year 1997, MCL had commissioned its third cement plant in Alathiyur; it was the second
in Tamil Nadu. The clinker plant of the Alathiyur unit was commissioned in March while the
grinding unit was commissioned in May of the same year 1997. The Company had embarked into
Ready Mix Concrete business in the year 1998. Also in the same year, MCL made tie-up with
Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) for procuring slag, a blast furnance residue and a crucial input for
slag   cement.


MCL tied up with Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) for supply of gas and the fuel supply
agreement was inked in 15th April of the year 1999. Also tied up with Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation (ONGC) for supply of 25,000 cu mtrs of gas per day from its Nallore well, near
Mannargudi in Tamil Nadu. In the same year 1999, another one tie-up was made with Vizag Steel
Plant for supply of slag. During the year 1999-00, the company' slag grinding project at
                                                              s
Jayanthipuram for manufacture of blended cement was commissioned and also the capacity of the
Alathiyur unit was expanded by 0.2 million TPA. During the year 2000, the company had launched
the Ramco Super Steel cement in Tamil Nadu. The Company' second unit at Alathiyur with a
                                                       s
capacity of 15 lac tonnes was commissioned in January of the year 2001. The second klin at R.R
Nagar was upgraded in May of the year 2001 with the installation of fixed inlet segment to the
cooler, new calciner and modifying pre heater cyclone, thereby increasing the capacity of the unit to
11 lac TPA of blended cement. With the help of M.Tec, Germany, the company started new project
Dry Motor Plant for manufacture of high technology construction products such as render, skimcoat
and dry concrete and its production commenced from January of the year 2003 at Sriperumbudur.
During 2004-05, The Company commissioned a 36 MW Thermal Power Plant at Alathiyur. The
Company decided to establish grinding units in the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West
Bengal in May of the year 2007. During October of the year 2007, MCL earmarked Rs 1.05 billion
investments for set up the grinding mill at Kolaghat in Midnapore, West Bengal. With an eye on
diversification, MCL is planning to enter into industries such as sugar, pharmaceuticals, power &
power equipments and textiles. As at March 2008, Madras Cements lines up Rs 15 billion
expansion. It will invest Rs 15.24 billion to increase its capacity.
Peer Comparison




Financials

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Valuation Techniques

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Since our Growth Rate (g) is greater than Required Rate of Return. Hence Assuming a two period model for DDM
as in one period the growth rate will continuously decline till 8% that is less than ROR and in second period
 it will be constant on 8%.
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If we see the result from Discounted Cash Flow Method both its techniques i.e. DDM and FCF says that the
stock is undervalued and intrinsic value is higher than the current market Price. But if we calculate the
intrinsic value as per Relative Value Technique the stock price is overvalued which is giving an indication
that stock should be sold. But still we take the average of all intrinsic Values it will come as Rs. 240/share.
Hence we should buy the stock.

Technical Analysis
Investment Management
Dr Reddy Labs
Dr Reddy labs is an integrated pharmaceutical conglomerate registered in both the Bombay stock
exchange and the new york stock exchange. To find out whether the stock of dr reddy labs is
undervalued or overvalued , dcf valuation has been performed. In dcf valuation the free cash flows
of the company and are discounted by using its wacc. After the calculation of the wacc it is
observed that the intrinsic value of a stock of dr redy labs is Rs. 2262.5 but at the same time the
stock traded in both bse and nse is going at a price of Rs.1965 so it can be safely assumed that the
stock is undervalued.

Forecasting of fcff:-

FCF                      2010                   2011                     2012                    2013
Sales revenue            70277                  74693                    96737                   114051
                                                6.28%                    29.51%                  17.9%
Operating Cost           34332                  27634                    35053                   74133
                                                37%                      36.24%                  65%
Taxes                    -985                   -1403                    -4204                   -11405
                                                1.88%                    4.35%                   10%
Net Investment           -31                    4918                     1644                    5000
Change in WC             9245                   6397                     6065                    6975
                                                                                                 15%
FCFF                     25746                  34341                    49771                   16538
                                                                                                 -66.77%
Avg Fcff Growth          31.57%

In this historical growth rates of sales growth is taken and operating costs are taken as a percentage of the sales
revenue.

FCFF = sales revenue – operating costs – taxes – net investment – change in working capital

Next the value of the enterprise is being calculated. Its wacc value is 11% by analysing its capital structure.
Terminal value is calculated by Gordon growth model.
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The share price calculated here is 2262.41 which is higher than the market price. So this stock is undervalue.




Technical Analysis:-
Investment Management
+ + $ .
“Tata Power management has guided for 70:30 blending of coal at Mundra against 60:40 currently.
Steam blow-out is completed for Unit-3 and boiler light-up done for Unit-4 and Unit-5. For
Maithon, coal transportation facility has now been stabilized with capacity of transporting
10000tons/day of coal by trucks. Construction work on railway link is expected to start by August
end. TPWR will declare 85% PAF only for 75% of Maithon capacity (PPA with Punjab not yet
approved) while the remaining capacity will be sold on merchant.”

“We cut our earnings estimates for FY13E/FY14E by 4.7%/4.6% respectively, factoring in higher
cash cost at Bumi (assuming $42/ton now vs. earlier assumption of $39/ton) and fine tuning of our
assumptions for other businesses. Consequently our revised EPS for FY13E/FY14E stands at
Rs4.7/4.6 respectively. Considering that most of its other businesses (Mumbai, Delhi, Captive,
others) are steady state and would be little variations in valuing these businesses, stock performance
will be driven by (1) global coal prices and (2) Mundra tariff escalation (if any).”

“We do not expect positive surprises from both the factors. However, in our view, valuations are
already factoring in the negatives, thus limiting the downside. Maintain Hold rating with revised
target price of Rs95/Share vs earlier PT of Rs98/share,” says Emkay Global Financial Services
research report.

A )




                               I$ "+                              !                   !            !
                                         $




                                                   & ' ()*

  $           *D
              *
  I$ "+



  #

2 +

" $
Risk free rate is assumed on basis of current lending rates of the banks
Expected market return is considered same as last year’s return

 The current market price of Reliance power is 85.50
 According to earnings model the market price of the share should be 8.609
 This shows that the stock is highly over valued


+ '   ')*   )* &-
             ,& %
Investment Management

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Investment Management

  • 1. Investment Management Portfolio of Dr. D.N Panigrahi Senior Faculty Member @ IMT-Nagpur Group No.: 06 (SEC: AB) Ankit Gupta Anshul Garg Ayan Chatterjee Dhairya Gada Kallol Sarkar
  • 2. Economic Analysis Indian Economy: Outlook and Prospects: FY12 and FY13 We projects that India’s GDP growth in FY12 will be 6.5%, which is likely to rise to around 7% in FY13 under certain assumptions made relating to the global economy and domestic policy responses. Inflation on the other hand is to moderate to 7.5% in FY13 based on a good harvest and stable global commodity prices. The projection for the fiscal deficit for FY12 has been placed at 5.5% which is expected to range between 5-5.5% in FY13 mainly due to pressure on the expenditure side. The RBI is expected to lower interest rates in the course of the year, with the repo rate coming down by 100-150 bps. The outlook further expects the rupee to remain volatile as euro conditions will remain in flux while the domestic current account deficit will be under pressure at 4% of GDP which will still be an improvement over the 4.5% deficit expected in FY12. Growth expectations GDP growth is to be driven mainly by the services sector which excludes any stimulus from the part of the government. Overall growth is expected to be in the range of 6.5% in FY12. This is creditable and would still be one of the highest in the world with only China, Argentina, and Turkey being ahead. Farm growth at around 3% will be major comfort for GDP growth and will also mean a second successive harvest after the drought of FY10. Production is to be boosted mainly by cereals such as rice and wheat and cash crops such as cotton, jute and sugarcane. This has provided both demand for non-farm goods as well as supplies for the manufactured food products which has in turn helped growth of industry. Industrial production (including construction), which was to grow in the region of 6-7% for the year would be fairly subdued even from the 7.1% projection made by the PMEAC in July. With fairly volatile numbers so far this year and negative growth in October, overall projections have been lowered to the range of 5%, which will still mean a substantial recovery in the last 4 months of the year, which on a high base, will be an achievement. Major risks in this area are in the mining and capital goods sector. For the former, policy action is required while for the latter, a revival in investment is called for. Absence of affirmative action in areas such as reforms in mining, land, insurance, pensions, banking, taxation etc. along with high interest rates have come in the way of investment growth. While it is expected that we have reached the end of the interest rate cycle, the progress on reforms is expected to be tardy till the first quarter of FY13. The service sector, with a weight of around 60% in GDP will be the chief driver with growth of around 9% during the year. Growth is expected to be broad based with only the government sector showing a slowdown.
  • 3. Fiscal outcome The fiscal deficit for FY12 will not meet the Budget’s target of 4.6% of GDP and would be higher on account of revenue slippages and excess expenditure. Based on the revenue loss from indirect taxes announced in mid -2011 as well as the higher government borrowings of over Rs 90,000 cr announced by the RBI for the year, the ratio is to slip towards the 5.5% mark, assuming that there are no further shocks. The question marks remain over the progress of the disinvestment programme of Rs 40,000 cr (only Rs 1,444 cr has been mobilized until now) and subsidy bill which has already overshot the budgeted amount of around Rs 145,000 cr. While there are mechanisms being put in place for enabling the disinvestment programme, it is uncertain as to what could be the level of success. Hence, the deficit level of 5.5% of GDP is a more conservative estimate, which is subject to an increase if these assumptions are violated. Also it should be noted that statistically the deficit ratio is being supported by a higher denominator as the overall growth of GDP at current market prices would be between 2- 3% higher than was envisaged at the time of presentation of Budget 2011-12. Inflation view Inflation as given by the WPI will move towards the 7% mark earlier than expected and could touch 6-6.5% by March end on a point to point basis guided by negative food inflation. The present trend of negative food inflation is being assisted by the base year effect which will wane by the end of the year. However, pressure will continue to be exerted by core and fuel inflation as the international crude prices will remain at the existing level which together with a weak rupee will exert pressure on prices. The government at best will not increase petro product prices this financial year and take on the additional cost aa part of the subsidy bill. Monetary developments Monetary indicators look to be weaker this year with growth in credit being 16% and deposits 18%. Growth in deposits is well ahead of that in credit and will continue to be so for the rest of the year. Surplus funds are being deployed in government paper thus enabling the government’s borrowing programme. Given the uncertainty over inflation, the RBI is unlikely to touch rates till March end even if the inflation number declines to 6-7% before that as core inflation is a concern and the central bank has to be certain that inflation will remain at lower levels before invoking an about turn in policy. Policy action While a CRR cut is possible to induce liquidity to ensure that the borrowing programme of the government goes through, the RBI may prefer to use OMOs as a CRR cut is viewed as being rather permanent, as a part of policy stance and reducing the same could send contradictory messages to the markets. The RBI has been following an anti-inflationary policy stance since early 2010. Liquidity will continue to be under pressure this year since, with credit growth also picking up to support commerce there will be additional demand from both the government and industry. This
  • 4. will keep G Sec yields steady and that on 10 -years will range between 8.2-8.5%. More borrowings will increase supply of paper that will depress prices, and consequently move yields upwards. External sector outlook The external account will be under pressure till March 2012. The trade deficit has been widening with growth in exports slowing down while imports continue to increase at a steady pace. This year so far, remittances and software flows have provided support to the current account. With these flows continuing to increase, albeit at a gradual pace, the current account deficit will in the range of 3.5% of GDP this year. Capital receipts have in the past provided support to the current account deficit. However, this year, FII flows have been just $ 6 bn till December and concentrated in debt. This number is not likely to improve substantially and would at best be around $ 10-12 bn by the end of the year. FDI however is the major supporting factor here, with around $ 20 bn coming in the first 7 months of the year. The target of around $ 30 bn is likely to be achieved. In case of ECBs, the target of over $ 35 bn is unlikely to be met, thus leading to pressure on the overall balance of payments and reserves. Given the pressure on the balance of payments, the rupee will continue to be under pressure in the range of Rs 50 -52/$ till March. However, any major shock in the global economy would change this range. Outlook for 2012 The outlook for 2012 and further till March 2013 will be based on two sets of factors. Global factors: The world economy is in a state of flux with the euro rescue package still being implemented. The recent downgrading of 9 nations has further added to the uncertainty with a possibility of further default problems in Greece resurfacing. Assuming that there are no further failures in the euro region and the rescue packages are to be implemented, there would be a tendency for countries to resort to fiscal austerity which in turn will slow down these economies. Therefore, overall growth here will be muted for a second successive year, and at around 0.5-1% compared with 1.5% in 2011. This would also be contingent on strong recovery in Germany and France. While ECB could lower rates in the course of the year by up to 50 bps, it is unlikely to have a perceptible impact given the fiscal concerns in most of these nations. This said, markets will continue to be volatile as the debt ridden nations will continuously be under stress to service their debt which in turn will affect sentiment that will be reflected mainly in the exchange rate with the dollar. The USA, which will probably continue its upward movement from around 1.8-2% in 2011 to between 2-2.5% in 2012, will not be able to propel the world economy on its own given that the emerging markets will also be under strain especially so on account of high commodity inflation which has invoked stringent monetary measures in these countries. Therefore, the overall global performance, which will have a bearing on trade flows and capital movements, is likely to at best be at present levels with marginal improvement towards the end of the year. Domestic factors
  • 5. Domestic economic developments will be largely driven by three sets of policy responses: Monetary policy, Fiscal stance, and, Economic reforms. However, the starting point will be the inflation direction as it has an overbearing impact on all policies. Inflation should be under control during the year at around 5% assuming that global commodity prices stay stable, in particular oil. With the global economy moving at a slow rate, this is a reasonable assumption which in turn will exert some control over imported inflation. The other caveat is a normal monsoon as this is one factor which can tilt the scales. Further, the Ministry of Petroleum’s view on administered fuel prices will also have a bearing on inflation as these products have a direct weight of around 7.5% in the WPI and also influence prices of other products, especially food products through transport cost. Keeping this factor as a constant, the following is the outlook for the Indian economy in FY13. • GDP growth to move upwards of the present rate of 7% towards the 7.5% mark a. Agriculture to pose a modest 2-3% growth which will come over two very good years of farm production. The base year effect will play a leading role in the final outcome. b. Industrial growth will start moving up based more on consumption rather than investment demand. The impact of high interest rates and inflation on investment first witnessed in FY12 will continue to be a downside risk to industrial growth and this will slow down the recovery process. A larger role of the government is envisaged in the new fiscal which will provide a stimulus to industrial growth. Overall industrial growth would be in the 7-8% region in FY13 based on three factors, the absence or delay of which will upset these projections. In fact growth would be more in the 6-7% region in case of such slippage. I. Base year effect provides a boost ii. Interest rates are rolled back iii. Government spending also increases c. Services sector will continue to be the engine to growth with a lead of 9% which will be supported by both the banking sector, retail space, transport and communication and more importantly the social and community services, which means more government spending. • The government will have to weigh the overall external and internal environment while formulating the Budget. While the external environment is quite nebulous, the domestic economy deserves a push that can be provided by the government. It is expected that the focus will be on project expenditure this time to provide a boost to the infrastructure sector so that the linkages are forged. The deficit will be at between 5.0-5.5% of GDP based on assumptions of moderate inflation and growth for revenue targeting. A review of the anti- poverty programme as well as implementation of the Food Security Bill will pressurize resources and hence lowering the fiscal deficit level further will be a challenge. Also the disinvestment programme of the government will have to be scaled down given the uncertain times on the bourses.
  • 6. Monetary policy will tend to be cautiously open with the repo rate to be lowered sequentially by 100-150 bps during the course of the year. The trigger would depend on when the core inflation number dips over the next three months. CRR cut would be invoked only in case of tight liquidity conditions prevail and would be in conjunction with the interest rate stance. Given that demand for funds is typically less compelling in the first quarter of the year, it would be considered only in case of a liquidity crunch in the second or third quarter of the year and will not be contrary to the interest rate stance. • G Sec yields will tend to move downwards, and the 10-year rate would move in the range of 8.0-8.5% mark depending on overall liquidity conditions as well as the fiscal deficit. Liquidity will continue to be stable with some pressure and RBI intervention will be necessitated as larger government borrowing along with increase in domestic credit will put pressure on the banking system. • The rupee would be impacted by both global exchange rate movements as well as forex inflows. The dollar would tend to be stable vis-à-vis the euro, but given lower demand conditions in this region, there could be a tendency for the dollar to move in the range of $ 1.25-35/euro which will cause volatility from this end. Two factors will be at work: the nebulous euro region climate will make the euro weaker, while the recovery in USA accompanied by the growing current account deficit can make the dollar weaken. The current account deficit may be targeted at 3% of GDP with exports reviving, though the slowdown in euro region will continue to pressurize the deficit. Support through remittances and software would be required to prop up the external balance. While FDI will continue to increase FII flows will be marginally better given a recovery in the world economy. This will help to prop up the domestic stock markets too. The rupee will be in the range of Rs 48- 52/$ during the year. • Concerns will remain on external debt and its composition as the debt to reserves ratio has exceeded 1 after a long time. Debt service especially that of short term loans will continue to be a concern going ahead.
  • 7. Therefore, while a gradual recovery is expected in the economy in FY13-15 , it is contingent on various other assumptions holding. More importantly, policy action would be the key. While easing of rates and liquidity will be in accordance with broader monetary policy goals of inflation, the government’s deficit will be critical as it will have to be a growth oriented budget, which gives incentives where it is needed through taxes, spends money on infrastructure to provide a stimulus and also meets its own social commitment expenditures.
  • 8. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Power Sector Analysis The Indian Power Industry is one of the largest and most important industries in India as it fulfills the energy requirements of various other industries. It is one of the most critical components of infrastructure that affects economic growth and the well-being of our nation. India has the world’s 5th largest electricity generation capacity and it is the 6th largest energy consumer accounting for 3.4% of global energy consumption. Due to the fast- paced growth of the Indian economy, the country’s energy demand has grown at an average of 3.6% p.a. over the past 30 years. In India, power is generated by State utilities, Central utilities and Private players. The share of installed capacity of power available with each of the three sectors can be seen in the pie-chart below: As per the latest Report of CEA (Central Electricity Authority) i.e. as on 31-03-2011, the Total Installed Capacity of Power in India is 173626.40 MW. Of this, more than 75% of the installed capacity is with the public sector (state and central), the state sector having the largest share of 48%. Thermal Power: - In India, major proportion of power is generated from thermal sources where the main raw material used is coal. Around 83% of thermal power is generated using coal as a raw material whereas 16% of thermal power is generated with the help of Gas and 1% of thermal power is generated with the help of Oil. Hydro Power: - Hydroelectric power or hydroelectricity is electrical power which is generated through the energy of falling water. India has hydro power generation potential worth 1,50,000 MW, of which only 25 % has been harnessed till date. Nuclear Power: - A Nuclear Power Plant is a thermal power station in which the heat source is one or more nuclear reactors. A nuclear reactor is a device to initiate and control a sustained nuclear chain reaction. In the process, heat is generated which is then used to generate electricity.
  • 9. Renewable Energy Sources: – The energy obtained from renewable sources like sun, wind, biomass can be converted into power. Renewable energy sources have great potential to contribute to improving energy security of India and reducing green-house gas emissions. India is among the five largest wind power generators in the world. As seen in the graph below, there is a positive correlation between the GDP Growth rate and the growth in Power Generation. As will be seen in the later part of this Shastra, India is currently facing acute shortage of power. The Indian growth story looks positive which will lead to higher economic growth and more demand for power. In order to sustain the growth in GDP, India needs to add power generation capacity commensurate with this pace.
  • 10. Plant Load Factor, a critical efficiency parameter in the power industry is a measure of the actual output of a power plant compared to the maximum output it can produce. The State sector, that has the highest installed capacity is the least efficient. The private sector utilities have clocked good efficiency rates and the Central utilities have managed to achieve competent efficiency rates. Going forward, with private players being encouraged to enter the Power Sector, the state utilities will be required to work on improving their efficiency. Looking at the table below, it can be clearly observed that hydro-power producers like NHPC and SJVN operate at substantially higher profit margins than thermal power producers. This is because thermal power producers are required to spend a lot on Fuel (Coal, Gas, Oil). Looking at the companies with a diversified portfolio of power, NTPC is the largest company (on Net Sales), but Tata Power has registered the highest growth rates in Sales and Net Profit. Among hydro power producers, NHPC’s performance has been very good, its Net Profit growing at a CAGR of 28%.
  • 12. 1) Demand-Supply Gap: – India has always been a power-deficient country. The demand for power is huge in India. As seen in the above graph, the supply of power in India has not been able to meet its demand. Under the Government’s “Power for all by 2012” plan, it has targeted per capita consumption of 1000 kWh by the end of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-2012) as compared to levels of 734 kWh in 2008-09. In order to provide per capita availability of over 1000 kWh of electricity by year 2012, it is estimated that capacity addition of more than 1,00,000 MW would be required. This shows that huge capacity additions are required at good efficiency rates, indicating that the opportunities available in this sector are huge. 2) Government: - The role of the Government in the development of Indian power industry has been very crucial. Government’s policies aim at protecting consumer interests and making the sector commercially viable. Government regulates this industry in various ways (Tariff control, Subsidies, environment norms, etc.) due to its linkages to various industries and to the growth of the economy. - Regulatory role of Government: - As far as regulation is concerned, Electricity Act, 2003 is a very important Act as it allowed private sector participation in the generation of power, thus creating competition. It also allowed 100% FDI participation in the power generation, transmission and distribution, thus inducing investments in the power sector. - Government Schemes: - The Government is investing in this industry through various development schemes: - o The Rural Electrification Program is an effort to lighten up villages which have faced acute shortage of Power over the years. o ‘Power for All by 2012 plan aims at a per capita consumption of 1000kWh by the end of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12). o The Accelerated Power Development and Reform Program me (APDRP) program me is being implemented so that the desired level of 15 per cent AT&C (Aggregate Technical and Commercial) loss can be achieved by the end of 11th plan (Currently it is 30%). - Projects under pipeline: - The Government of India is planning nine Ultra Mega Power
  • 13. Projects (UMPP) of 4 GW each with an estimated individual investment of US$ 4 billion (Rs. 192 billion). Four of these projects are expected to be commissioned between 2011 and 2017. The UMPP is an initiative by the government to collaborate with power generation companies to set up 4,000 MW projects to ease the country’s power deficit situation. 3) Raw Materials: - Thermal power segment, which has the largest capacity generation share in the Indian power industry, is dependent on inputs like coal, oil and gas for the generation of power. Coal shortages and the low thermal quality of coal supplies cause disruptions in power generation and result in lower plant load factors. When domestic supply of coal is insufficient, coal is imported. This is unfavorable for power companies as it leads to rise in costs. With these problems associated with thermal power, the Power Companies enter in to Long Term Agreements (LTA) with coal suppliers or acquire coal mines to ensure regular supply of coal. Besides, currently coal players in India are adopting aggressive strategies by acquiring Coal mines outside India. Domestically, a good number of coal mines have received environmental clearances. Such actions will be beneficial for thermal power players. Gas-based power plant face problems because of shortages in gas supply. The discoveries in the Krishna-Godavari Basin are expected to improve gas availability in India which is a big positive for India’s gas-based plants. 4) Transmission and Distribution: – Transmission of electricity is defined as the bulk transfer of power over a long distance at a high voltage. Transmission and Distribution is as important as generation. The capacity additions to meet India’s growing power demand should be supplemented by adequate transmission infrastructure. Globally, every dollar invested in generation has an equal amount invested in transmission and distribution. However, in India traditionally every dollar invested in generation has a corresponding half a dollar invested in transmission and distribution. Due to this, transmission capacity in India lags behind the generation capacity. Huge investments are required in Transmission and Distribution if India’s power sector is to meet the rising power demand. 5) FDI Equity Flows in Power Sector: -
  • 14. In India, 100% FDI is allowed in the Generation, Transmission and Distribution segments of the Power Sector. The FDI inflow in the Power Sector has been on the rise in the last 5 years. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years considering the huge opportunities available in the sector. FDI inflow is important for the power sector because it brings in money and India’s power sector is in huge need of investments. More importantly, FDI also brings in advanced technology making the sector more efficient. Hence, this proves to be a major growth driver for the power sector. 6) Growth Drivers for Power from Nuclear, Hydro and Renewable Energy Sources: – With the thermal power generation segment facing the issue of shortages of coal (major raw material), other power generation sources like nuclear, hydro and renewable energy sources will get attention in the coming years. Nuclear power projects account for 2.75% of India’s total installed capacity which is about 4.77 GW. The Planning Commission’s expert committee on an Integrated Energy Policy has suggested in its report that there is a possibility of reaching a nuclear power capacity of 21-29 GW by 2020 and 48-63 GW by 2030. The hydro power segment offers investment opportunities as India is considered to have hydro power generation potential worth 1,50,000 MW; of which only 25% has been harnessed till date Using renewable sources to generate electricity has several advantages like a perennial energy source, potential for lower reliance on imported fossil fuels and lower CO2 emissions. However, at present the major hurdle facing rapid expansion of renewable power is high initial cost as compared to the competing fuels. But taking in to consideration the environmental concerns, this segment receives encouragement from the Government. Its share in the country’s total generation capacity has increased from 1.1% in 2001-02 to 10.63% as on 31st March, 2011 and is expected to increase in the future. These three non-thermal sources of power also offer good investment opportunities. Companies are diversifying their power portfolios to take advantage of opportunities available in hydro power and renewable energy sources. Power Sector is a highly capital-intensive industry with long gestation periods, before the commencement of revenue generation. Since most of projects have a long time frame (4-5 years of construction period and operating period of over 25 years), there are some inherent risks which this sector faces. Availability of Coal: - Coal is the mainstay of the power production in India and is expected to remain so in the future. India has limited coal reserves, plus, availability of domestic coal is a challenge on account of various bottlenecks such as capacity expansion of Coal India Limited (the largest coal producing company in the world, coal block allocation, tribal land acquisition, environmental and forest clearances, etc. Transportation of coal is a big concern in itself. Within the country, coal is transported by Indian Railways and in case of imports; coal is to be unloaded at ports. In both cases, India currently faces capacity shortage. Hence, a project developer has to account for and manage its logistics chain in a manner that ensures regular fuel supply which is a big challenge.
  • 15. Dependence on Equipment Suppliers: - The power sector is heavily dependent on Equipment suppliers. In fact, equipment shortages have been a significant reason for India missing its capacity addition targets for the 10th five year plan. While the shortage has been primarily in the core components of boilers, turbines and generators, there has been lack of adequate supply of Balance of Plant (BOP) equipment as well. These include coal handling, ash-handling plants, etc. Apart from these, there is shortage of construction equipment as well. Hence, inadequate supply of equipments is a cause of concern for the power companies. Aggregate Commercial and Technical Losses: - The Aggregate Technical and Commercial Loss (AT&C) is defined as the power lost due to inefficient transmission and distribution infrastructure. India’s AT&C losses are as high as 30% compared with 5-10% in the developed markets which means out of every 100 units produced, 30 are lost during transmission and distribution. Technical losses are due to inadequate investments over the years for system improvement works. Commercial losses are mainly due to low metering efficiency, pilferage and theft of power. This is a huge problem for the power sector. Other Roadblocks leading to Demand Supply Gap: - The power sector has other concerns like shortage of skilled manpower for construction and commissioning of projects, contractual disputes between project authorities, contractors and their sub-vendors, delay in readiness of balance of plants by the executing agencies. Difficulties have been experienced by developers in land acquisition, rehabilitation, environmental and forest – related issues, inter-state issues, geological surprises (particularly for Hydro projects) and contractual issues. These issues continue to pose challenges to maintain the pace of development of power projects. India has stepped its development agenda and power is an inevitable element of economic growth and development. Growth in the power sector is related to India’s GDP growth rate and hence, in order to sustain the growth of 8-9% in GDP, India needs to continuously add power generation capacity to commensurate with this pace. Although, the Indian power sector is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world and energy availability has increased by around 36% in the past 5 years, the demand for power outstrips its supply. Nearly 60 crore Indians do not have access to electricity. The energy and peaking deficits have been hovering around double digits for the past two years and the condition might worsen in the coming years considering the huge demand of power from India’s rising population and rapid industrialization and urbanization. Hence, there is no slowing down of demand for the Power Sector, thus offering ample scope for rapid capacity expansion. The Government is investing in this industry through various development schemes like Rajeev Gandhi Rural Electrification Program, ‘Power for all by 2012 and Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme (ARDRP), Ultra Mega Power Projects etc. It has also been is encouraging participation of private players in this Sector. Renewable energy sources are also being encouraged considering the growing environmental concerns. Hence, the future prospects of nuclear power, hydro power and power from renewable energy sources are also good Looking at the above points, the long term future prospects of the Indian Power Sector appear to be Green (Very Good).
  • 16. It is very important that while investing in a company, an investor selects an industry, where the long-term future prospects are bright. We have seen that in the long run the Indian Power sector is expected to have good growth. Banking Sector Recently, the RBI took a few important steps to make the Indian Banking industry more robust and healthy. This includes de-regulation of savings rate, guidelines for new banking licenses and implementation of Basel Norm III. Since March 2002, Bankex (Index tracking the performance of leading banking sector stocks) has grown at a compounded annual rate of about 31%. After a very successful decade, a new era seems to have started for the Indian Banking Industry. According to a Mckinsey report, the Indian banking sector is heading towards being a high-performing sector According to an IBA-FICCI-BCG report titled ‘Being five star in productivity – road map for excellence in Indian banking’, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will make the Indian banking industry the third largest in the world by 2025. According to the report, the domestic banking industry is set for an exponential growth in coming years with its assets size poised to touch USD 28,500 billion by the turn of the 2025 from the current asset size of USD 1,350 billion (2010)”. So, before going in its future, let’s have a glance at its historical performance. If we look at 5 years historical performance of different types of players in the banking industry, public sector bank has grown its deposits, advances and business per employee by the highest rate – 21.7%, 23% and 21.1% respectively. As far as net interest income is concerned, private banks are ahead in the race by reporting 24.2% growth, followed by pubic banks (21.4%) and then by foreign banks (14.8%). Though the growth in the business per employee and profit per employee has been the highest for public sector banks, in absolute terms, foreign banks have the highest business per employee as well as profit per employee.
  • 17. In the last 5 years, foreign and private sector banks have earned significantly higher return on total assets as compared to their pubic peers. If we look at its trend, foreign banks show an overall decreasing trend, private banks an increasing trend and Public banks have been more or less stagnant. The net NPA of public sector bank was also significantly higher than that of private and foreign banks at the end of FY11, which indicates the asset quality of public banks is comparatively poor. The Capital Adequacy ratio was also very high for private and foreign bank as compared to public banks. In conclusion, we could say that the current position of ROA, Net NPA and CAR of different kinds of players in the industry indicates that going ahead, public banks will have to face relatively more problems as compared to private and foreign banks. After looking at industry performance, let’s see how the different players in the Banking Industry have performed in the last five years
  • 18. The table above indicates that overall the top private banks have grown faster than that of public banks. Axis Bank, one of the new private sector bank, has shown the highest
  • 19. growth in all parameters i.e. net interest income, deposits, advances, total assets and book value. Among public sector banks, Bank of Baroda has been the outperformer in the last five years. Kotak Mahindra Bank has reported the highest 5-year average net interest margin and currently, it also has the highest CAR whereas HDFC Bank has the highest CASA, the lowest net NPA to net advances ratio and the highest five-year-average ROA. On the other hand, India’s largest bank, SBI reported the lowest five-year-average ROA. Currently, it has the highest net NPA to net advances ratio and the lowest CAR. Looking at all of the above, it is expected that Private Banks are better placed to garner growth in the Indian Banking Industry. High growth of Indian Economy: The growth of the banking industry is closely linked with the growth of the overall economy. India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and is set to remain on that path for many years to come. This will be backed by the stellar growth in infrastructure, industry, services and agriculture. This is expected to boost the corporate credit growth in the economy and provide opportunities to banks to lend to fulfil these requirements in the future. Rising per capita income: The rising per capita income will drive the growth of retail credit. Indians have a conservative outlook towards credit except for housing and other necessities. However, with an increase in disposable income and increased exposure to a range of products, consumers have shown a higher willingness to take credit, particularly, young customers. A study of the customer profiles of different types of banks, reveals that foreign and private banks share of younger customers is over 60% whereas public banks have only 32% customers under the age of 40. Private Banks also have a much higher share of the more profitable mass affluent segment. New channel – Mobile banking is expected to become the second largest channel for banking after ATMs: New channels used to offer banking services will drive the growth of banking industry exponentially in the future by increasing productivity and acquiring
  • 20. new customers. During the last decade, banking through ATMs and internet has shown a tremendous growth, which is still in the growth phase. After ATMs, mobile banking is expected to give another push to this industry growth in a big way, with the help of new 3G and smart phone technology (mobile usage has grown tremendously over the years). This can be looked at as branchless banking and so will also reduce costs as there is no need for physical infrastructure and human resources. This will help in acquiring new customers, mainly who live in rural areas (though this will take time due to technology and infrastructure issues). The IBA-FICCI-BCG report predicts that mobile banking would become the second largest channel of banking after ATMs. Financial Inclusion Program: Currently, in India, 41% of the adult population don’t have bank accounts, which indicates a large untapped market for banking players. Under the Financial Inclusion Program, RBI is trying to tap this untapped market and the growth potential in rural markets by volume growth for banks. Financial inclusion is the delivery of banking services at an affordable cost to the vast sections of disadvantaged and low income groups. The RBI has also taken many initiatives such as Financial Literacy Program, promoting effective use of development communication and using Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to spread general banking concepts to people in the under-banked areas. All these initiatives of promoting rural banking are taken with the help of mobile banking, self help groups, microfinance institutions, etc. Financial Inclusion, on the one side, helps corporate in fulfilling their social responsibilities and on the other side it is fueling growth in other industries and so as a whole economy.
  • 21. More stringent capital requirements to achieve as per Basel III: Recently, the RBI released draft guidelines for implementing Basel III. As per the proposal, banks will have to augment the minimum core capital after a stringent deduction. The two new requirements – capital conservative buffer(an extra buffer of 2.5% to reduce risk) and a counter cyclical buffer (an extra capital buffer if possible during good times) – have also been introduced for banks. As the name indicates that the capital conservative buffer can be dipped during stressed period to meet the minimum regulatory requirement on core capital. In this scenario, the bank would not be supposed to use its earnings to make discretionary payouts such as dividends, shares buyback, etc. The counter cyclical buffer, achieved through a pro-cyclical build up of the buffer in good times, is expected to protect the banking industry from system-wide risks arising out of excessive aggregate credit growth. The above table reveals that even under current Basel Norm II, Indian banks follow more stringent capital adequacy requirements than their international counterparts. For Indian Banks, the minimum common equity requirement is 3.6%, minimum tier I capital requirement is 6% and minimum total capital adequacy requirement is 9% as against 2%, 4% and 8% respectively recommended in the Basel II Norm. Due to this the capital adequacy position of Indian banks is at comfortable level. So, going ahead, they should not face much problem in meeting the new norms requirements. But as we saw earlier, private sector banks and foreign banks have considerable high capital adequacy ratio, hence are not expected to face any problem. But, public sector banks are lagging behind. So, the Government will have to infuse capital in public banks to meet Basel III requirements. With the higher minimum core Tier I capital requirement of 7-9.5% and overall Tier I capital of 8.5-11%, Banks ROE is expected to come down. Increasing non-performing and restructured assets: Due to a slowdown in economic activity in past couple of years and aggressive lending by banks many loans have turned non-performing. Restructuring of assets means loans whose duration has been increased or the interest rate has been decreased. This happens due to inability of the loan taking company/individual to pay off the debt. Both of these have impacted the profitability of banks as they are required to have a higher provisioning amount which directly eats into the profitability. The key challenge going forward for banks is to increase loans and effectively manage NPAs while maintaining profitability. Intensifying competition: Due to homogenous kind of services offered by banks, large number of players in the banking industry and other players such as NBFCs, competition
  • 22. is already high. Recently, the RBI released the new Banking License Guidelines for NBFCs. So, the number of players in the Indian banking industry is going to increase in the coming years. This will intensify the competition in the industry, which will decrease the market share of existing banks. Managing Human Resources and Development: Banks have to incur a substantial employee training cost as the attrition rate is very high. Hence, banks find it difficult manage the human resources and development initiatives. Currently, there are many challenges before Indian Banks such as improving capital adequacy requirement, managing non-performing assets, enhancing branch sales & services, improving organization design; using innovative technology through new channels and working on lean operations. Apart from this, frequent changes in policy rates to maintain economic stability, various regulatory requirements, etc. are additional key concerns. Despite these concerns, we expect that the Indian banking industry will grow through leaps and bounds looking at the huge growth potential of Indian economy. High population base of India, mobile banking – offering banking operations through mobile phones, financial inclusion, rising disposable income, etc. will drive the growth Indian banking industry in the long-term. The Indian economy will require additional banks and expansion of existing banks to meet its credit needs. CEMENT India is the world’s second largest producer of cement. Indian cement industry has outpaced the growth rates of other prominent industries in the country on the back of factors, such as rising demand from the housing sector, increased activity in infrastructure, and construction recovery. Recent industry developments and the government supportive policies are attracting global cement giants and sparking off a spate of mergers & acquisitions to spur growth. Our report has found that, the Indian cement industry sustained its growth rate even in the tough conditions of economic slowdown. Cement production is expected to increase above 9% year-on-year during 2010-11 against the previous fiscal year. Almost every cement major expanded their installed capacity in the backdrop of the government backed construction projects as these projects have created strong demand for cement in the country. Moreover, it is anticipated that the industry players will continue to increase their annual cement output in coming years and the country’s cement production will grow at a CAGR of around 12% during 2011-12 - 2013-14 to reach 303 Million Metric Tons. At the regional front, Southern Region (including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka) was leading the country in terms of cement production in 2009-10. Sufficient raw material availability and various incentives provided by the state governments make this region lucrative for investments. Numerous domestic and international cement companies are striving hard to establish their production base in this region. India' cement production increased by 6.7% to 230.50 million tonne in FY 2011-12, as s against 4.5% increase to 216.0 million tonne in FY 2010-11. But the pace of growth has been decelerating sharply in the recent times from robust 17.0% rise in November 2011
  • 23. to modest 7.1% in March 2012. Still the second half has recorded much better growth than the first half of FY 2011.12. Cement dispatches of members of Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) improved by 6.1% to 17.97 million tonne while their production grew by 5.2% to 17.91 million tonne in March 2012. In FY 2011-12, the members of CMA recorded 6.3% rise in cement production to 179.79 million tonne and 6.5% increase in cement dispatches to 178.90 million tonne. The cement production and dispatches of mini cement plants as well as that of Holcim group companies, ACC and Ambuja Cement are not part of data provided by CMA. India recorded impressive 10% growth in demand for cement in the quarter ended March 2012, as against a nominal growth of 5.6% in the nine months ended December 2011, over the same period of the previous year. Southern region remains plagued with over capacity, but here too there are signs of improvement in demand. In the southern region, the demand for cement improved by 9.4% in the quarter ended March 2012, as against 3% fall in demand during the nine months ended December 2011, as per India Cements. Ambuja Cements indicated that the cement demand over the last few months have been robust, backed by revival in infrastructure and construction activities. But the company cautioned that despite improved realization, the cost-push from higher energy cost and rail freight increase is expected to keep the profit margin under pressure. Financial performance ACC' consolidated revenues during the quarter were up 18% to Rs 3044.95 crore mainly due to 20% growth in cement business to Rs 2854.94 crore which forms 94% of revenues. OPM worsened by 140bps to 21.3% mainly due to rise in power, fuel and utilities costs despite fall in purchase of traded cement, employee and raw material costs as % to sales which led to only 10% rise in operating profits to Rs 647.73 crore. PAT was down by 57% to Rs 151.55 crore during the quarter despite higher other income as there was an EO of Rs 335.38 crore related to change in depreciation policy from straight line to written down value on captive power plants. While the company' results s benefited from better volumes during the quarter, manufacturing costs and realizations were affected by steep escalations in the cost of inputs such as coal, fly ash and gypsum. The cost of transportation also rose significantly as a result of the hike in rail freight and increase in diesel prices. Another Holcim group Company, Ambuja Cement posted 23% de-growth in net profits to Rs 312.22 crore on 20% growth in revenues to Rs 2660.93 crore during the quarter ended March 2012. OPM improved by 80 basis points to 29% which led to 23% rise in operating profits to Rs 772.1 crore. PBT before EO was up by 29% to Rs 721.48 crore due to significant increase in other income and comparatively lower increase in depreciation charges. There was an EO expense of Rs 279.13 crore on account of onetime charge arising out of change in depreciation policy from fair value to written down value on captive power plants against nil and effective tax jumped by 200 basis points to 29% leading to 23% de-growth in PAT to Rs 312.22 crore. Profit after tax for the current quarter would have been higher by Rs 195.29 crore to Rs 507 crore, if the company continued to use the earlier method of depreciation. This change would have no effect on EBITDA and cash profit for the quarter ended March 2012.
  • 24. Aditya Birla group Company Ultratech Cement recorded 19% rise in Net Sales to Rs 5391.57 crore for quarter ended March 2012. Operating margins improved by 60bps to 24.5% due to decline in freight& transport, employees and consumption of raw materials costs as % of sales. The resulting operating profits grew by 22% to Rs 1319.1 crore. While other income jumped by 225% to Rs 145 crore during the quarter, interest expenses declined by 29% to Rs 58.56 crore and depreciation rose at a marginally lower rate of 3% to Rs 233.21 crore thereby leading to 43% growth in PBT to Rs 1172.3 crore but 1500bps increase in tax rate to 26% moderated PAT growth to 19% to Rs 867.32 crore. The results of Ultratech Cement for the year ended 31st March 2011 have been recasted to include Samruddhi Cement Limited' performance for the period 1st April 2010 s to 30th June 2010 for a like-for-like comparison. The results are strictly not comparable with the corresponding period of the previous year. Based on re-casted figures, for the financial year ended March 2012, Net Sales increased to Rs 18166 crore against Rs 15406 crore in FY11. PBIDT also increased to Rs 4519 crore compared to Rs 3453 crore. PAT increased from Rs 1719 crore to Rs 2446 crore. India Cements, the southern cement major has registered 17% increase in net profit to Rs 64.92 crore during the quarter ended March 2012 on 12% growth in sales to Rs 1118.48 crore. The growth was backed by a smart recovery in the selling prices and sustained efforts on cost reduction through better blending and reduction of power and fuel consumption. The growth was backed by a smart recovery in the selling prices and sustained efforts on cost reduction through better blending and reduction of power and fuel consumption. This performance was backed by an improved selling price and sustained efforts on cost reduction through better blending and operating parameters. There was flat growth in demand in South, which together with the capacity addition in the region forced lesser capacity utilization of the industry. The rise at the bottom line was led by smart improvement in operating performance since OPM jumped by 140bps to 19.5% due to fall in Raw material as well as Transportation costs despite increase in Power& Fuel and staff costs with operating profits subsequently up by 20% to Rs 217.64 crore. FY12 sales of India cements grew 20% to Rs 4215.19 crore. OPM jumped by 910bps to 21.7% leading the operating profits growth by 107% to Rs 915.14 crore. Net profit grew 330% to Rs 292.97 crore on the back of muted increase in depreciation charges. Production and dispatch numbers During the quarter, Ultratech' combined cement and clinker sales of grey cement were s 11.54 MMT (10.70 MMT), for white cement 1.6 LMT (1.5 LMT) and for wall care putty 1.1 LMT (0.8LMT). During the year, the combined cement and clinker sales of grey cement was 40.73 MMT (39.74 MMT), for white cement 5.6 LMT (5.5 LMT) and for wall care putty 3.7 LMT (2.9 LMT). During the 4 th quarter, India cements produced 19.66 lakh tons of clinker (17.77 lakh tons), the cement production was at 25.11 lakh tons (24.72 lakh tons) and achieved a sale
  • 25. of 25.28 lakh tons as compared to 25.32 lakh tons. The clinker sale was at 0.72 lakh tons as compared to 0.17 lakh tons. Other developments Ultratech' initiative towards setting up of additional clinkerisation plants at Chhattisgarh s and Karnataka together with grinding units, bulk packaging terminals and ready mix concrete plants is progressing on schedule and are expected to be operational from early FY14. Consequently, the company' cement capacity will be enhanced by 10.2 mtpa. s In July 2011, Orient Paper and Industries indicated that it would hive off its cement division to a wholly owned subsidiary Orient Cement, which will subsequently be listed. In FY 2011-12, the company derived 56% of revenues from cement, 30% from electric fans and 14% from paper and boards. The company reported 26% rise total income to Rs 2512.93 crore and 48% rise in net profit to Rs 212.28 crore. The company indicated that the cement division, proposed to be hived off into Orient Cement, recorded profit of Rs 237.81 crore in FY 2011-12. Thus, the hived off cement entity' profit is more than the s profit of the pre-restructuring cement cum paper cum electric fan entity! This is due to overwhelming losses in its paper division. Cement demand recorded better growth in the quarter ended March 2012 The growth in cement demand has registered a marginal improvement to 6.6% as against 4.7% in the previous year as per the information furnished by CMA. However further analysis reveal that during the last quarter of this year, the demand had moved up by an impressive 10% as compared to a nominal growth of 5.6% in the previous nine months. Similarly in south, the demand improved by 9.4% in the last quarter as opposed to a negative growth of 3% during first 9 months of the fiscal. While the all India capacity utilization was at 75%, the utilization of the industry in south was only 63% though the company achieved a 67% utilization. Economic growth to facilitate acceleration in cement consumption India cements indicated that as the Prime Minister' Economic Advisory Council has s projected a GDP growth of 7.5 to 8% for the year 2012-13, we can minimum expect similar growth in cement demand. In addition, there are certain positive developments on the global front, with the US economy estimated to grow by 2% in 2012 and forward looking indicators of OECD showing improvement in the advanced countries'outlook and prospects. With the industrial sector showing signs of revival in the last quarter and given the government' intention to boost the agricultural development and a fillip to industrial s growth, the projected growth in GDP could well be achievable. The recent proposal of the Reserve Bank of India in its Credit Policy to reduce Repo rates by 50 basis points is also expected to soften the housing loan interest rates which also augur well for the industry' growth prospects. s
  • 26. Total production The cement industry comprises of 125 large cement plants with an installed capacity of 148.28 million tonnes and more than 300 mini cement plants with an estimated capacity of 11.10 million tonnes per annum. The Cement Corporation of India, which is a Central Public Sector Undertaking, has 10 units. There are 10 large cement plants owned by various State Governments. The total installed capacity in the country as a whole is 159.38 million tonnes. Actual cement production in 2002-03 was 116.35 million tonnes as against a production of 106.90 million tonnes in 2001-02, registering a growth rate of 8.84%. Major players in cement production are Ambuja cement, Aditya Cement, J K Cement and L & T cement. Apart from meeting the entire domestic demand, the industry is also exporting cement and clinker. The export of cement during 2001-02 and 2003-04 was 5.14 million tonnes and 6.92 million tonnes respectively. Export during April-May, 2003 was 1.35 million tonnes. Major exporters were Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd. and L&T Ltd. The Planning Commission for the formulation of X Five Year Plan constituted a 'Working Group on Cement Industry'for the development of cement industry. The Working Group has identified following thrust areas for improving demand for cement; Further push to housing development programmes; Promotion of concrete Highways and roads; and Use of ready-mix concrete in large infrastructure projects. Further, in order to improve global competitiveness of the Indian Cement Industry, the Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion commissioned a study on the global competitiveness of the Indian Industry through an organization of international repute, viz. KPMG Consultancy Pvt. Ltd. The report submitted by the organization has made several recommendations for making the Indian Cement Industry more competitive in the international market. The recommendations are under consideration. Cement industry has been decontrolled from price and distribution on 1st March 1989 and de-licensed on 25th July 1991. However, the performance of the industry and prices
  • 27. of cement are monitored regularly. Being a key infrastructure industry, the constraints faced by the industry are reviewed in the Infrastructure Coordination Committee meetings held in the Cabinet Secretariat under the Chairmanship of Secretary (Coordination). The Committee on Infrastructure also reviews its performance. Technological change Continuous technological upgrading and assimilation of latest technology has been going on in the cement industry. Presently 93 per cent of the total capacity in the industry is based on modern and environment-friendly dry process technology and only 7 per cent of the capacity is based on old wet and semi-dry process technology. There is tremendous scope for waste heat recovery in cement plants and thereby reduction in emission level. One project for co-generation of power utilizing waste heat in an Indian cement plant is being implemented with Japanese assistance under Green Aid Plan. The induction of advanced technology has helped the industry immensely to conserve energy and fuel and to save materials substantially. India is also producing different varieties of cement like Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC), Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement (PBFS), Oil Well Cement, Rapid Hardening Portland Cement, Sulphate Resisting Portland Cement, White Cement etc. Production of these varieties of cement conform to the BIS Specifications. Also, some cement plants have set up dedicated jetties for promoting bulk transportation and export. After posting the poorest show in a decade in 2010-11, at sales growth of less than five per cent, India’s cement industry put up a better performance in financial year 2011-12, thanks to the robust demand revival in the second half of the year. The 330-million-tonne industry grew 6.4 per cent against less than five per cent in FY11. This was better than the cement makers’ earlier estimates of six per cent. However, later in the year when demand revived, industry officials and sector analysts turned positive, with growth projections of 6.5-7 per cent. The industry sold 223.02 million tonnes of the building material, compared with 209.5 million tonnes in FY11. Production, too, rose to 223.6 million tonnes against 210.5 million tonnes, up 6.2 per cent. During the first half of the year (April-September), the industry managed to grow a mere 3.23 per cent. However, the strong revival in demand from the third quarter of FY12 helped cement makers raise prices, which improved their profitability. In November, the industry notched up sales growth of 19.5 per cent (one of the highest in many years in a month). Though, the demand growth later tapered, it remained in double digits till February. It was during this time that prices hit an all-time high of Rs 300 for a 50-kg bag. This level prevails even now. “The industry witnessed demand rise across the country. In particular, western, central and northern regions were the main contributors for strong demand revival,” says the research head of a Mumbai-based brokerage.
  • 28. However, the ending month of FY12 could not remain in line with the earlier few months, as sales dipped to single-digit. In March, the industry sold 22.5 million tonnes, a rise of 7.5 per cent against the corresponding month last year. Going forward, industry officials are optimistic and project growth at eight to nine per cent. The Holcim group of companies — ACC and Ambuja Cements — have chalked out expansion plans worth Rs 5,000 crore, while Aditya Birla Group’s UltraTech Cement has plans to add 25 million tonnes of capacity in the next few years. According to the latest report from the working group on the industry for the 12th five- year Plan (2012-17), India would require overall cement capacity of around 480 million tonnes. This would mean the industry will have to add another 150 million tonnes of capacity during the period. Currently, the top players — UltraTech, ACC, Ambuja Cements, Jaiprakash Associates, India Cements — and Shree Cement, collectively control more than half of the cement market in the country. There are 40 players in the industry across the country. Outlook According to Ultratech, the cement industry is likely to grow over 8 per cent linked to the Government' focus on infrastructure development. The surplus scenario is likely to s continue for the next three years. Moreover, continuing rise in input costs will adversely impact margins. The current quarter is set to remain better for cement sector due to decent growth in demand, elevated cement prices and effective reduction in excise duties. Part of these gains will be lost due to higher cost of fuel and power, though off late the global coal prices are also easing. With massively expanded capacities, better growth in demand will
  • 29. be the only panacea for the Indian cement industry, which battles low capacity utilization, elevated costs and allegations of cartelization. Pharma: Growth momentum would sustain In Global Pharmaceutical market, generics segment growth continues to outpace branded drugs, with several blockbuster drugs like Lipitor, Zyprexa, Geodon, Seroquel, Plavix, Combovir and Actos recently lost patent. The patent expiries are expected to peak out in 2012 and expected to steadily decline by the 2015. Notably, the Indian Pharmaceutical market is on the path of becoming a major global market and is one of the major growth drivers in the Asian subcontinent apart from china. The year 2011 was another year of robust growth for the Indian Pharmaceutical industry as it grew by 15%, reaching a market size of more than Rs 60000 crores. This high growth rate is attributable to the increase in investment by the market players, high penetration into the rural areas, increasing purchasing power of the consumers and improving availability of healthcare facilities. The anti-infective were the highest contributor to the Indian Pharmaceutical market (in terms sales) but the chronics therapies steadily picking its share. The chronic therapies like Cardiology, GI, Derma, Diabetes continue to outgrow the market. On the CRAMS front, The Indian players are focusing on providing services across the value chain spanning from development stage to commercial scale production. Also, with the several drugs going off patent and big Pharma increasing their exposure to cost efficient sourcing locations, opportunities remain favorable for Indian CRAMS players. The Aggregate sales of 153 Pharmaceuticals companies grew by 17% YoY in Q1' 13 FY to Rs 22094 crore driven by 17% sales growth in domestic players to Rs 20532 crore. Notably, the growth was on the back of continued upside from First-to-File products such as Lipitor, Caduet, Geodon and Plavix etc in US market for the Indian frontline players coupled with strong growth from domestic market. Generally, The first generic applicant to file a paragraph IV certification is awarded 180-day market exclusivity period by the USFDA is also called First-to-Files. Also, the depreciation (YoY) of INR against major currencies such as USD (26%), GBP (22%), EURO (9%) and JPY (28%) helped the top line growth. The Pharma sector' operating profit margins fell by sharp 440 bps YoY to 17.7% on the s back of increased staff costs coupled with higher R&D spends. Eventually, Operating profit declined by 7% YoY to Rs 3914 crore. After the 8% growth in other income to Rs 540 crore, Profit before interest depreciation and tax was down by 5% YoY to Rs 4454 crore. With the sharp 103% rise in interest cost to Rs 1171 crore (factors forex losses) and 14% increase in depreciation to Rs 832 crore, Profit before Tax was down by 28% YoY to Rs 2451 crore. Further, after the steep rise in effective tax rate by 780 bps YoY to 24.2% net profit was down by 34% YoY to Rs 1858 crore. During the quarter, The 147 domestic Pharma companies grew by robust 17% YoY to Rs 20532 crore. However, operating profit margins fell by 420 bps YoY to 17.6% on the back higher staff cost coupled with the elevated R&D expenditure. Accordingly, operating profit declined by 6% to Rs 3609 crore. After 7% growth in other income to
  • 30. Rs 459 crore, PBIDT was lower by 5% YoY to Rs 4069 crore. With the sharp 103% rise in interest cost to Rs 1170 crore and 13% increase in depreciation to Rs 804 crore, PBT fell by 30% YoY to Rs 2094 crore. Further, after the sharp rise in effective tax rate by 880 bps YoY to 23% net profit of the domestic players was down by 37% to Rs 1613 crore. Among the frontline players Cipla come up with standout performance on the back of excellent growth from domestic business coupled with robust growth in export business (upside from Lexapro and Vancocin opportunities) during the quarter. Also, Sun Pharmaceuticals posted another excellent quarter on the back of continued upsides from the Lipodox sales, robust growth from Taro Pharma coupled with currency tailwinds. Ranbaxy laboratories posted excellent growth in top line driven by strong sales from exclusive products (Lipitor and Caduet) coupled with continued good growth from the base business. However, the bottom-line has turned to deep red on account of higher forex losses during the quarter. The generic Lipitor touched peak market share of 50% and generic caduet 55% during the exclusivity period, which ended on May 29th 2012. Further, It expects to maintain the leadership Atorvastatin market with 40% market share against the Indian and International competitors going forward. Also, The US base business further strengthened to around USD 80-85 million during the quarter and expected to grow to US 100 million by the Q1' CY13. Lupin has come up with robust growth in the top line and the bottom-line despite higher effective tax rate during the quarter. The healthy growth in sales driven by the sharp growth from US, Japan coupled with good growth from domestic market. Also, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals started the fiscal with moderate performance. However, The elevated R&D expenditure at Biocon continues to hit margins. Notably, The India' s leading CRAMS major Divis Laboratories has come up with another robust performance. However, revenues from 6 MNC players grew by moderate 11% YoY to Rs 1562 crore for the quarter ended June 2012. Also, margins fell by sharp 550 bps YoY to 19.5% and accordingly there was 14% decline in operating profit to Rs 305 crore. After the 13% growth in other income to Rs 81 crore, Profit before interest depreciation and tax was down by 9% YoY to Rs 385 crore. With no interest cost and after the 100% rise in depreciation to Rs 28 crore, PBT was lowered by 13% YoY to Rs 357 crore. But after the decline in effective tax rate by 100 bps YoY to 31.4%, the net profit for the 6 MNC players was lower by 12% YoY to Rs 245 crore. In the quarter ended June 2012, the Indian pharma benefited from continued upside from FTFs (Lipitor, Caduet, Geodon, Plavix etc) in the US market, coupled with currency tailwinds and as well good growth in domestic formulation market. Further, the large number of patent expiries continues to offer strong growth prospects for generic players in the developed markets going forward. Notably, The patent expiries are expected to peak out in 2012 and the growth momentum would sustain as most of Indian companies have fairly well spread product pipeline till 2014. The Indian front line players have healthy pipeline of First-to-File (FTF) opportunities and few other are likely to benefit from the launch of niche, limited competition products. Over the years, the quality of filings by the major Indian companies
  • 31. significantly improved with complex molecules, non-orals (i.e. inhalers, injectables, oral contraceptive, ophthalmic etc) and Para IV/FTFs forming the increased share of the pipeline. Outlook The large number of patent expiries continues to offer strong growth prospects for the Indian frontline players in the developed markets. The growth momentum would sustain going forward as patent expiries are expected to peak out in 2012 with fairly well spread product pipeline. Also, The September 2012 quarter would witness upside from recent launches such as generic Actos and Singulair. Going forward the major generic launches to look for are Diovan, Tricor and Propecia during the current fiscal. Further, the Key challenges to the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry are increasing competitive pressure in the chronic segments, aggressive approach such as authorized generic by the innovators in the US, healthcare reforms in the European markets and possible implementation of the new pricing policy in India. Also, The US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) is expected to implement Generic Drug User Fee Act (GDUFA) program will from October 1st 2012. This would increase the costs for the generic players but will speed up the approval process for Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA' by the US FDA. s) Textile: Textiles: Effective excise duty on branded garments eased slightly, but excise duty on MMF rose Union Budget has given mixed bag of response for the recommendations of Textile Industry. Some of the provisions in the budget that could have a direct and indirect bearing on the Textile and Clothing Industry are as follows. Budget Provisions: • The central plan outlay for the Textile Ministry was increased by 27% to Rs 7000 crore for FY2012-13 against revised plan expenditure of Rs 5503.30 crore in FY2011-12. The Total Plan and Non-plan expenditure for the Textile Ministry increased 23% to Rs 7836.41 crore for FY2012-13 against Rs 6445.57 crore in the revised estimates of FY2011-12. • The revised estimates for allocation of TUFS stood at Rs 3529.67 crore for FY2011-12 against budgeted estimates of Rs 2980 crore. Government has extended Technology Up gradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) for 12 th five-year plan. In this context, it has allocated plan outlay of Rs 2775.80 crore under TUFS for FY 2012-13, down by 21% on y-o-y basis. This scheme provides for reimbursement of 5% out of interest actually charged by the lending agencies for facilitating investments in modernization of Textile Jute Industries. • Government has announced a financial package of Rs 3884 crore for waiver of loans of handloom weavers and their co-operative societies. Of this Rs 2205 crore has been allocated for revival reforms and restructuring package for Handloom sector. Under this scheme fund is being provided for repayment of 100% of principal and 25% of interest as on date of loan becoming NPA and which is overdue as on 31 March 2010 in respect
  • 32. of viable and potentially viable weavers with an overall ceiling of Rs 50,000 per individual beneficiary. • Further, to provide technical support for poor handloom weavers, it has proposed to set up Three Weavers Service Centers – one each in Mizoram, Nagaland and Jharkhand. It has also proposed to set up two more mega handloom clusters one to cover Prakasam and Guntur districts in Andhra Pradesh and another for Godda and neighboring districts in Jharkhand. • One power loom mega cluster to be set up in Ichalkaranji in Maharashtra; with budget allocation of Rs 70 crore. • A pilot scheme for promotion and application of Geo Textiles in the Northeastern region is proposed for 12th five-year plan with an outlay of Rs 500 crore. • Proposal to provide weighted deduction at 150 per cent of expenditure incurred on skill development in manufacturing sector Excise Duty: • Government in the Union budget FY2012/13 has increased Standard rate of excise duty from 10% to 12%. Thus the excise duty on the manmade fiber products would be increased from 10% to 12%. Consequently, merit rate of 5% is being enhanced to 6% while 1% excise duty applicable on 130 items is also being enhanced to 2% with a few exceptions. • The excise duty on readymade garments bearing a brand name or sold under a brand name is being enhanced to 12%. The rate of abatement on such readymade garments is being increased from 55 % to 70%. Hence, the tariff value for purposes of charging duty would be @ 30% of the retail sale price. Customs Duty: • Basic customs duty on Wool Waste (CTH 5103) is being reduced from 10% to 5% and that of Wool Tops (CTH 5105) is being reduced from 15% to 5%. • Basic Customs duty Aramid thread/ Yarn/ fabric (Speciality Threads) for manufacture of Bullet proof helmets for Defence and Police personnel is being reduced from 10% to Nil with Nil CVD and Nil SAD. • Full exemption from basic customs duty exemption is being provided to shuttle less looms, parts/components of shuttle less looms by actual users for manufacture, specified silk machinery viz. Automatic reeling silk reeling and processing machinery and their accessories including cocoon assorting machines, cocoon peeling machines, vacuum permeation machine, cocoon cooking machine, reeled silk humidifier, bale press and raw silk testing equipments. • The concessional 5% duty available to specified textile machinery under erstwhile Notification No. 21/2002-Customs dated 1.3.2002, superseded by Notification no.12/12- Customs dated 17th March, 2012 is being restricted only to the new textile machinery. Consequently second hand machinery would attract 7.5% basic customs duty. Budget Impact Extension of TUFS for the 12th five-year plan is welcoming for the Textile Industry. However, the allocation has been reduced by 21% in FY13. Cheer on allowing the concessional 5% duty on only new machines is offset by the 7.5% customs duty on the second hand machinery. Mostly, textile industry imports second hand machines for their
  • 33. capacity building at lower capex. This may have a negative impact on weaving and processing industry in the midst of / or planning expansion. Further, the industry recommendation of bringing in neutral fiber policy is kept aside with increase in the excise duty on MMF. The Industry expectation on cut of excise duty on the branded apparel was half met. While the excise duty has increased, the government has increased abatement there by cutting the effective tax from 4.5% earlier to 3.6%. Companies to watch: Aditya Birla Nuvo, Raymond, Page Industries, S Kumar Nation Wide, Provogue, Kewal Kiran, Arvind Mills, JBF Industries, Century Enka, Garden Silk Mill, ESI, Himatsingika Seide etc Outlook Union Budget has been mixed bag for the textile industry. While the government has extended its helping hand for unorganized handloom industry by financial package and loan waiver scheme; the concerns of spinning, weaving and processing industry left unanswered. On the other hand, extension of TUFS scheme is a breather to the industry. However, the effective marginal reduction in the excise duty on branded apparel was way short of industry expectations. Increase in excise duty on MMF products will further squeeze the already wafer thin margins of the MMF industry, which is hit by spike in crude oil based derivatives and sluggish demand.
  • 34. COMPANY ANALYSIS Torrent Power Torrent Power Ltd. is an India-based company engaged in the electricity generation, transmission and distribution. Torrent Power is one of the leading brands in the Indian power sector, promoted by the Rs. 9592 crore Torrent Group. The Torrent Group is a multifaceted and dynamic group, dedicated to transforming life by serving two of its most critical needs - pharma and power. Torrent Power is the most experienced private sector player in Gujarat. Torrent Power foresaw the prospects in the power sector much before the liberalization, when it took-over an ailing power cable company in 1989 (now known as Torrent Cables Limited) and successfully turned it around. The high points of Torrents foray into power by the acquisitions of two of the India’s oldest utilities. The Surat Electricity Company Ltd and The Ahmedabad Electricity Company Ltd. Torrent turned them into first rate power utilities in terms of operational efficiencies and reliability of power supply. Torrent Power Ltd. has reported net profit of Rs 2127.60 million for the quarter ended on December 31, 2011 as against Rs. 1975.40 million in the same quarter last year, an increase of 7.70%. It has reported net sales of Rs 18944.50 million for the quarter ended on December 31, 2011 as against Rs 15587.30 million in the same quarter last year, a rise of 21.54%. Total income grew by 21.21% to Rs.19150.10 million from Rs.15799.20 million in the same quarter last year. During the quarter, it reported earnings of Rs 4.50 a share. During the quarter, net sales increase by 21.54% to Rs. 18944.50 million from Rs.15587.30 million in the previous quarter and Total Profit for the quarter ended December 2011 was Rs. 2127.60 million grew by 7.70% from Rs. 1975.40 million compared to quarter ended December 2010. The Basic EPS of the company is stood at Rs. 4.50 for the quarter ended December 2011 from Rs. 4.18 for the quarter ended December 2010. At the current market price of Rs.219.00, the stock is trading at 8.59 x FY12E and 7.35 x FY13E respectively. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY12E and FY13E is seen at Rs.25.51 and Rs.29.78 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 19% over 2010 to 2013E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 4.27 x for FY12E and 3.75 x for FY13E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 1.73 x and 1.40 x respectively for FY12E and FY13E. We expect that the company will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We recommend BUY in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 247 for medium to long term investment.
  • 35. Torrent Power EPS 201303(E) ! " # $ ! Year Stock Price Sensex Stock Ret. Market Ret. % ! % ! ! ! % ! ! % ! % ! ! ! Beta 2.84341 Rf ! Em ! Er !
  • 36. & ' ()* Current Market Price 155 Since the intrinsic value of Share is more than the market value, therefore the share is undervalued and worth buying. + ' ')* )* &- ,& %
  • 38. IFL is bullish on Aditya Birla Nuvo and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 940 in its March 1, 2012 research report. Aditya Birla Nuvo has confirmed trend reversal after prices closed above 200 DMA with spurt in volumes. This breakout has happened after long s consolidation which formed like a rounding saucer pattern. The amplitude of breakout indicates near term target beyond 1000 levels corroborated with positive crossover in daily RSI. The MACD has been also sustaining above the reference line thus supporting buying momentum in the counter. We recommend buying Aditya Birla Nuvo above Rs890 with stop loss of Rs865 for Target of Rs940. (Duration 7 days), says IIFL research report. . +/ $ " &0 1 ' * ")* ) 2 * 3 45 ' 0 6 ) 7 8 ! &7 9 ) # 8 ! 2 + " $ : ) # 173 78 #;<1 6 % #3 78 ; 1 % 3 78 ! & ' ()* 8 " 8 ! 45 ' 0 8 =& 0) 0 *8 $ >?%@ '7 )7 ) # ) 5 ' '7 2 &4 # &4 ! ! ! ! !
  • 39. % % % ! ! % % ! % % % ! ! 45 ' 0 6 ) 7 () ' 8 8 ! 6 ) 8 + ' ')* )* &- ,& %
  • 40. Madras Cements Company Analysis :- Madras Cements (MCL), a flagship company of the Ramco group, is a major player in the blended cement category in south India. The company was incorporated in the year 1957. MCL is the sixth largest cement producer, fifth largest in Market Capitalization in the country and the second largest in South India. The Company undertook to replace the 4 cement mills at its Ramasamyraja Nagar Works, which were 20 years old, by a single new Combidan Cement Mill. The mill was commissioned at end of the year 1985. A 132 KVA sub-station and the limestone crushing plant were installed during the same year. The project was commissioned during December of the year 1986. Two D.G. sets were installed in the middle of the year 1988 to meet 60% of the unit' power requirement at s Jayanthipuram. The Company had set up the 4 MW windmill farm in the year 1992 at Muppandal, Kanyakumari district, Tamil Nadu. Asia' largest one to be commissioned in the Private sector was s set up. All the 16 wind turbines of the company were commissioned in March of the year 1993. In the same year 1993, an additional capacity was created by adding 8 Nos. wind turbines of 250 KW each at Muppandal wind mill farm taking the generation capacity to 6 MW. During the year 1994, MCL had upgraded the capacity of its Jayanthipuram Unit to 1.1 million tonnes and also upgraded
  • 41. the cement mills capacity in R. R. Nagar. The Company substantially increased the capacity of windmills by installation of 70 more windmills. In the year 1995, the company enhanced power generation capacity at Jayanthipuram unit to 15.3 MW by commissioning an additional diesel generator set to maintain normal production in view of frequent power-cut and power tripping. During the year 1997, MCL had commissioned its third cement plant in Alathiyur; it was the second in Tamil Nadu. The clinker plant of the Alathiyur unit was commissioned in March while the grinding unit was commissioned in May of the same year 1997. The Company had embarked into Ready Mix Concrete business in the year 1998. Also in the same year, MCL made tie-up with Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) for procuring slag, a blast furnance residue and a crucial input for slag cement. MCL tied up with Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) for supply of gas and the fuel supply agreement was inked in 15th April of the year 1999. Also tied up with Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) for supply of 25,000 cu mtrs of gas per day from its Nallore well, near Mannargudi in Tamil Nadu. In the same year 1999, another one tie-up was made with Vizag Steel Plant for supply of slag. During the year 1999-00, the company' slag grinding project at s Jayanthipuram for manufacture of blended cement was commissioned and also the capacity of the Alathiyur unit was expanded by 0.2 million TPA. During the year 2000, the company had launched the Ramco Super Steel cement in Tamil Nadu. The Company' second unit at Alathiyur with a s capacity of 15 lac tonnes was commissioned in January of the year 2001. The second klin at R.R Nagar was upgraded in May of the year 2001 with the installation of fixed inlet segment to the cooler, new calciner and modifying pre heater cyclone, thereby increasing the capacity of the unit to 11 lac TPA of blended cement. With the help of M.Tec, Germany, the company started new project Dry Motor Plant for manufacture of high technology construction products such as render, skimcoat and dry concrete and its production commenced from January of the year 2003 at Sriperumbudur. During 2004-05, The Company commissioned a 36 MW Thermal Power Plant at Alathiyur. The Company decided to establish grinding units in the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal in May of the year 2007. During October of the year 2007, MCL earmarked Rs 1.05 billion investments for set up the grinding mill at Kolaghat in Midnapore, West Bengal. With an eye on diversification, MCL is planning to enter into industries such as sugar, pharmaceuticals, power & power equipments and textiles. As at March 2008, Madras Cements lines up Rs 15 billion expansion. It will invest Rs 15.24 billion to increase its capacity.
  • 42. Peer Comparison Financials ) ) ) ) ) ) ) A ) 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 * ', ) & B " ) C '7 ) ")& ) ' B)D* & + B ' B)D* & " * ' * $ 0 B ,+ B B ," B & $ 0 $),)D* & + B $),)D* & $),6 $ 0 ")& ",'* 5 ) @ # #' ', ) & + )* && & + B 9 4 0 && + B : ,+ B
  • 43. 5 ) @ $ # )D * , ) & && $ # ) @ 5 ) @$ # ) @ $ # )@ B & 0 ")5 )* : , &7 )* & ,& @ # 5 ) @ B )@ % @ #9 ) ' )* B )@ % + )* B )@ % % D% : , ) @%+ 6 D % + )* ")5 )* + )*0 D %+ )*")5 )* ) @& E " B )@ ) & " B )@ ")& 9* " B )@ ")& 9* % @ + 6 D ")& 9* %+ )* D Valuation Techniques ) ) ) ) ) ) ) A ) 9 ')& 0 B0 0 $) 0 # ) & B0 0 5 ) ) ) @& $ ) 1$ 3 $> ) 1@3 . # : ,1 2)* ' )& ) 3 )7 1 5 )& 2 3 &7%9 %A +%2 *& * " 6 5) , &7 1 )3 2 " & # : ,1 )& 7 ()* 3 . # D 1 2)* ' )& ) 3 " & # D1 )& 7 ()* 3
  • 44. . "" $ + " ) @ B &6 9 ")& 9* Since our Growth Rate (g) is greater than Required Rate of Return. Hence Assuming a two period model for DDM as in one period the growth rate will continuously decline till 8% that is less than ROR and in second period it will be constant on 8%. ! $( A ) ) B0 0 9)' $( 6 " &) $ 0 & ' ()* # '7 9"9 $> " )7 $ ' & ' ()* &* 2 , 2 , ** If we see the result from Discounted Cash Flow Method both its techniques i.e. DDM and FCF says that the stock is undervalued and intrinsic value is higher than the current market Price. But if we calculate the intrinsic value as per Relative Value Technique the stock price is overvalued which is giving an indication that stock should be sold. But still we take the average of all intrinsic Values it will come as Rs. 240/share. Hence we should buy the stock. Technical Analysis
  • 46. Dr Reddy Labs Dr Reddy labs is an integrated pharmaceutical conglomerate registered in both the Bombay stock exchange and the new york stock exchange. To find out whether the stock of dr reddy labs is undervalued or overvalued , dcf valuation has been performed. In dcf valuation the free cash flows of the company and are discounted by using its wacc. After the calculation of the wacc it is observed that the intrinsic value of a stock of dr redy labs is Rs. 2262.5 but at the same time the stock traded in both bse and nse is going at a price of Rs.1965 so it can be safely assumed that the stock is undervalued. Forecasting of fcff:- FCF 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sales revenue 70277 74693 96737 114051 6.28% 29.51% 17.9% Operating Cost 34332 27634 35053 74133 37% 36.24% 65% Taxes -985 -1403 -4204 -11405 1.88% 4.35% 10% Net Investment -31 4918 1644 5000 Change in WC 9245 6397 6065 6975 15% FCFF 25746 34341 49771 16538 -66.77% Avg Fcff Growth 31.57% In this historical growth rates of sales growth is taken and operating costs are taken as a percentage of the sales revenue. FCFF = sales revenue – operating costs – taxes – net investment – change in working capital Next the value of the enterprise is being calculated. Its wacc value is 11% by analysing its capital structure. Terminal value is calculated by Gordon growth model. + 6 )*()* 8 9 )*5 F ' 0 , ) ')& # G1 ;* @ 6 ')& # * * @ ) 3 > 1 &' ) % * @ 6 ')& # * ) 3 . "" ! + 6 )*()* 9 )*$ F ' 0 H ")& 9* @ + 6 ")& ! #* ) &' ) ! + 6 )* ) H 5 & ()* A ) A ) A ) A ) A ) 9"99 H H H H H &' ) ! ! ! ! !
  • 47. + 6 )*B)* H $ & ()* H + )* 5 & ()* & #) B)* # : , & ')* * 0 )& & ' ) 4' *& D * - ) $ ' 8 9) B)* >+ )*& ) &) 0 @ 9) ()* # : , 8 + )* 5 & B)* % D 9) B)* # : , ) $ ' + )* * 0 ) 9) 5 & B)* H ) B)* The share price calculated here is 2262.41 which is higher than the market price. So this stock is undervalue. Technical Analysis:-
  • 49. + + $ . “Tata Power management has guided for 70:30 blending of coal at Mundra against 60:40 currently. Steam blow-out is completed for Unit-3 and boiler light-up done for Unit-4 and Unit-5. For Maithon, coal transportation facility has now been stabilized with capacity of transporting 10000tons/day of coal by trucks. Construction work on railway link is expected to start by August end. TPWR will declare 85% PAF only for 75% of Maithon capacity (PPA with Punjab not yet approved) while the remaining capacity will be sold on merchant.” “We cut our earnings estimates for FY13E/FY14E by 4.7%/4.6% respectively, factoring in higher cash cost at Bumi (assuming $42/ton now vs. earlier assumption of $39/ton) and fine tuning of our assumptions for other businesses. Consequently our revised EPS for FY13E/FY14E stands at Rs4.7/4.6 respectively. Considering that most of its other businesses (Mumbai, Delhi, Captive, others) are steady state and would be little variations in valuing these businesses, stock performance will be driven by (1) global coal prices and (2) Mundra tariff escalation (if any).” “We do not expect positive surprises from both the factors. However, in our view, valuations are already factoring in the negatives, thus limiting the downside. Maintain Hold rating with revised target price of Rs95/Share vs earlier PT of Rs98/share,” says Emkay Global Financial Services research report. A ) I$ "+ ! ! ! $ & ' ()* $ *D * I$ "+ # 2 + " $
  • 50. Risk free rate is assumed on basis of current lending rates of the banks Expected market return is considered same as last year’s return The current market price of Reliance power is 85.50 According to earnings model the market price of the share should be 8.609 This shows that the stock is highly over valued + ' ')* )* &- ,& %