1. CTA Annual Seminar
Public Policy and Investment
23rd November, 2010
Andy Bullock, Interim Facilitator

2. Decline since 1987
- despite Asian evidence
Poor sector performance
Weak MDG connections
Lack of initial response to
1st Generation PRSPs
Debt Relief etc
Competing demands
on ODA – higher returns
elsewhere

3. Stagnation of assets
Stagnation of absorptive capacity

5. 70m to > 130m ha and >7,000 medium-large sized dams within 40 years (high
private sector engagement)
Yield increases, reduced vulnerability to climate vagaries (eg at planting),
extended cropping season, intensification (double-cropping)

6. Ag water estimated at ~50% of Green Revolution costs.
But – ‘Rainbow revolution ‘ – mosaic of farming systems

7. Different beneficiary targets, political economies, financing models ,
connections with river basin management
1) improved water control and watershed management in rain-fed
environments
2) small scale community-managed irrigation for local markets;
3) individual smallholder irrigation for high value markets;
4) market oriented (medium-large scale) irrigation on a public private
partnership basis
5) reform and modernization of existing large scale irrigation

8. Pan-African targets
AfDB – double-digit
GDP growth necessary
CAADP – 6% agric growth
National targets (through CAADP Compacts)
2.5% annual growth in Kenya, 3.6% in Liberia, 6% in Uganda, 7% in Rwanda,
10-13% in Nigeria

9. Africa Water Vision 2025
Follow-up through AMCOW (eg RPP)
Ouagadougou Call for Action (Collaborative Program)
Tunis Declaration 2008
Sirte Conference in 2008

10. Refined estimates for SSA – 5bn US$ p.a. Current flows – 2 bn US$.
Annual financing gap 3 bn US$ (CapEx and O&M)

12. 20 Countries progress to
Post-Compact status by 2010
All striving for higher
Agricultural growth
Mainly countries facing
‘economic water scarcity’
Some impacted detrimentally, some
beneficially by CC projections

13. •Maputo Declaration - 10% of Govt funding (~5 bn US$)
•Food crisis response – Post L’Aquila/Pittsburg GAFSP (9bn US$)
•IFAD 8th Replenishment (3bn US$)
•WB Irrigation Business Plan (~1bn US$ p.a.)
•AfDB Irrigation and water storage Business Plan – 500,000 ha, 1% annual rise
in storage)
• Others – eg IsDB, bilaterals
•Emerging Partners (Sovereign Funds)

14. The main foci for action to 2015:
supporting AWM operations and investments in 20 Post-Compact
countries (significant expansion of AWM, ‘next generation’ Ag
SWAPs/irrigation policies)
Countries (perhaps indicatively 5-10) progressing to Compacts
(alignments of AWM within national development and agricultural
strategies, effective national irrigation policies and strategies, and
AWM with food security policies
working with CAADP to support (indicatively 5-10) countries that will
progress towards, but not necessarily conclude on, Compacts
Low Income Countries Under Stress (LICUS)

15. Uganda - rehabilitation of five large public irrigation schemes (6535
ha)
Malawi - rehabilitate existing irrigation schemes and construct new
ones to expand irrigated area from 20,000 ha to 40,000 ha
Rwanda - area under sustainable water management to 300,000ha,
66,000 ha of marshland rice development by 2016
Liberia - expansion of agricultural land under irrigation from 2% to
5%
Ghana - micro- and small-scale irrigation to benefit 50,000
households by 2015

16. Investment readiness ‘stairway’

17. Targeting (subject to demand): 260,000 (ha) of irrigation and
400,000 ha of improved water management in rainfed agriculture

18. • 20 countries progressing to operationalise CAADP (through Compacts,
Investment Plans etc)
•Alignments with CAADP by development partner support (eg GPAFS)
•Major improvements in actual and pipeline investment flow
•AWM embedded within national agricultural development and food security
strategies
•New facilitating arrangements at country-level of Line Ministries
• Not uniquely a funding challenge
•High demand for operational support in (capacity-limited)
implementing agencies
• ‘New generation’ of better performing interventions
• Positive experiences (research, civ soc) in scaled-up areas
• Support institutions to gear up to operations