Traffic pollution, climate change and restricting car use

18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle
Traffic related pollution: Our
progress managing air quality and
carbon emissions
Professor Margaret Bell CBE
Newcastle University, School of Civil
Engineering and Geosciences,
Transport Operations Research Group

This Presentation
• Local Authority Responsibilities
• History and health impacts
• Effect of driver behaviour on emissions
• Carbon Emissions: How are we doing?
• Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside concentrations
• Background versus roadside monitoring
• Some Solutions?
• The Challenge
• The Future
• Summary But………………….

Responsibilities
Binding targets: 67% reduction eCO2 by 2050 over 2010
Meet Air Quality Objectives - Nitrogen Dioxide and PM10
Health: 50,000 deaths brought forward in 2010 due to poor air
quality
Accidents: In UK 1870 fatal accidents in 2010
Congestion:
• Damaging the economy
• Major source emissions,
• Destroying planet,
• Reducing life expectancy and

History and Health Impacts

London Smog
• 4th December 1952 for 5 days
• 4,000 deaths
• Anti cyclone over London, wind dropped, air
damp, thick fog
• Air dark, tinged yellow, smelled of rotten eggs
• Sulphur and other toxins from coal fires
• BBC 5th December 2002 Reported
– 12,000 Deaths
– Chronic respiratory cardiovascular
complaints
– Mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia
increased >7 fold

London Smog

People and animals wore face masks

Problems Today
• Smoke and sulphur dioxide pollution in cities is much lower
than in the past
• BUT rapid growth of transport in the last 20 years has
resulted in a different kind of pollution in urban areas
• Nowadays Photochemical Smogs build up during warm
sunny days in summer, when air pollutants are trapped at
ground level
• Experienced in Europe and Los Angeles for many years due
to climate
• UK Government responded imposing standards and tasking
LA to establish Air Quality Management Areas

Traffic and Environmental
Impacts
Source: The effects of emerging vehicle technologies on certain vehicle emissions not
currently regulated (DfT 2006)

Pollutants sources
• CO (poor combustion of carbon fuel
• NO2 (motor vehicles, combustion)
• SO2 (combustion, power stations)
• PM10 (diesel and combustion)
• HC benzene, butadiene (petrol)
• O3 (secondary from sunlight on NOx and VOCS)
• Pb (Industry - removed from petrol)

Cycling and walking:
Win – Win for Health

Effect of Driver Behaviour on
Emissions

Characterising UK
vehicle emissions
Chassis
dynamometer (e.g.
Bath University)
Highly Instrumented vehicle
(e.g. Leeds and Southampton
University UK

RETEMM (Real-world
Traffic Emissions
Monitoring and
Modelling)
Project funded by UK EPSRC
at Leeds University
40 drivers (20 male, 20
female)
Ages 21-63 years
10 loops of the same 0.6km
circuit
Data collection

(a) Carbon dioxide (b) Hydrocarbons (c) Oxides of Nitrogen
Driver 7 `
Driver 31
Over revving and Sloppy Gear changing is more polluting
Engine Speed versus Vehicle Speed

Real-World Network
Driving Emissions: Petrol
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
NOx
(g/km)
HC (g/km)
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
EURO0
EURO1
EURO2
EURO3
EURO4
NOX-HC
Aromatic & Olefin are
predominant HC in O3
formation.
Not meeting
targets
Ozone forming
potential increasing
Diesel mainly emit NOx
and Particulates
More efficient engines
burned PM10 to PM2.5
Increase in NH3 Daham (2006), Li et al (2006)

Carbon Emissions- How are we
doing?

Carbon Emissions
How are we doing?
2013 20501990
? 80% of 1990
2010
….
1998 20111987
2 Regions 600 links 900 links
SCOOT
Leicester SCOOT database
20...
Model change in UK Fleet emissions over time
Flow and
Congestion
2050
67% of 1990
2005

Carbon Emissions
1998-2011
• Traditional emission models - reduction in 2008 of
about 10% over 1998
• Complex congestion related emission model -
increase of about 3% over 1998 data
• After the recession the complex congestion related
emission model – recession fall of 5% over 1998.

Effect of tailpipe emissions on
roadside concentrations

Air Quality Monitoring
AURN Cabin

Archive Data Analysis:
AURN – Newcastle
Regeneration Filters
Primary NO2 increases
Euro 3 Diesels Reduce VKT and
promote public
transport

Engine Technologies
In reducing
primary NO
Fitted TRAPS
Regenerate
particle filters
BUT Fine
Particulates
increased
Secondary NO2
dropped
Exacerbated
Air Quality
Rhys-Tyler GA, Legassick W, Bell MC (2011).
Increased
primary NO2

Futures Project - London
(Black Cabs) – NO / Smoke
Particle Traps
fitted - elevated
emissions NO2
FUTURES
project
55,000 tailpipe
emissions

London - NO2 g/m3
Marylebone (outside RUC) Westminister (inside RUC)
NO2
Oct 97 – Oct 11
NO2
July 01 – Oct 11
Level and Duration increased since ~2005
g/m3g/m3

Background versus roadside
monitoring

Novel Pervasive Monitoring
Gateway Mote
27

Understanding Air Quality

BUS
STATION
Provides evidence of the causes of the pollution problems
METRO
STATION
OPEN SPACE

AQMA in Newcastle Area
AQMA
corridor Canyon: Prevailing wind westerly
Regent Centre
Commuter traffic; School Run; High Bus
Frequency; Pedestrian Activity
What can we do?

BUS
STATION
METRO
STATION
AQMA Newcastle
Centre
Pedestrian
Activity
High Bus
flows and
bus stops
High Bus
flows into
Haymarket
Bus Station

Bus-Bus Hub
• 0. Current Transport network
for Gosforth
• 1. Bus hub - reduced number
buses replaced with electric
• 2. Bus hub ditto with 10%
modal shift 07:30- 08:45
• 3. Bus hub ditto with 20%
modal shift 07:30 – 08:45

Carbon Savings
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Percentagedifferences
betweenscenarios
Scenarios
CO2
NOx
VOC
PM
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
20.5
21
21.5
22
Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
AverageSpeed(km/h)
Average Speed comparisons between scenarios
Only 25% contribution
against 67% reduction in
level over 2010 needed
by 2050
Over 4.2km saving of
1minute over a journey
of 8.3minutes
Air Quality problem partially addressed

The Challenge

CO2 Emissions – Annual Household
Travel and Energy Use
Gas
Annual
emissions
equivalent
CO2
Electricity
Travel
575 Households 1527 individuals
Energy used in home is 70% higher
than saved not using car work
Respondent
50% gross emitters responsible for
96% travel; 60% household energy
together 67% reduction at 2010
Gas

The Future…..

SECURE: Cycle of Living
Need to understand
Inefficiencies
TRANSPORT-Supports
every aspect of Living
‘Energy conservation’
policies – Resource Supply
Waste Demand?
• Food Miles
• Household kerbside
Recycling
• Anaerobic Digestion
human waste
• Biomass
• School policies
• etc
Gas

Summary

Summary
• Scientific Evidence
– Not meeting Air Quality Standards
– Not delivering Carbon Targets
– Admissions to Hospital and Deaths attributed to traffic
related AQ and Noise
• Emissions Control strategies – vehicle tax and Fuel duty
not delivering
• Substantial reduction in Vehicle Kilometres necessary
– Every school a good school
– Live close to work and Walk to shops
– Use public transport or for necessary trips share ride
– Adopt eco driving styles for essential journeys
• Sustainable futures rests with ‘doing things differently’

But…………..

For Interest: PM10
Levels in Four Cities
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Cycle Taxi Car Motorcycle Minibus BRT Bus Train
PM10ugm-3
Mumbai
Wuhan
Jakarta
Newcastle

Concluding Remarks
• Public Transport Operation should:
– Have symbiotic relationships with other transport systems
– Accommodate non-motorised vehicles
– Consider CO2 as a metric for performance evaluation
• ITS manage across modes and provide data to:
– Inform/educate public
– Improve operation
– Monitor CO2
However:
…….. Address need to travel
…….. Land Use
……… Education and Social

Thank you for Listening
Questions?

Acknowledgement
 EPSRC, Newcastle and Medway Councils and Dft, UK for
funding the research presented.
 Colleagues at the Transport Operations Research
Group, Newcastle University.
• Please take opportunities to reference the research
presented. Consult the Reference list on the Personal webpage
at the University www.newcastle.ac.uk
• or
• Contact Margaret Bell directly.

School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Cassie Building
Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU
Prof Margaret Bell CBE
Science City Professor in Transport and
Environment, margaret.bell@ncl.ac.uk
Professor Bell was honoured as
CBE, Commander of the British
Empire for her services to
Sustainable Transport in 2006 and is
the Chair of the ITS(UK) Smart
Environment Interest Group which
was launched at 13th ITS World
Congress in London in 2001
Professor Bell’s has almost forty years of research
experience which embraces monitoring, modelling
and management of traffic, emissions, air
quality, noise and exposure; evaluation of health and
carbon emissions impacts.

Traffic pollution, climate change and restricting car use

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