SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  13
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
                                                                                          K E Y N O T E
 




                                           Munjal Show Ltd.
                                                     wa




 




    Deep A. K
       pak  Kolhe, An
                    nalyst
    deepa
        ak@keyno
               otecapitals.net 



                                  Keynote Cap
                                            pitals Institutio
                                                            onal Research is also available on
                                                                        h
       Blo
         oomberg KNT <GO>, Th
                   TE           homson One AAnalytics, Reu  uters Knowledge, Capital I TheMarke
                                                                                      IQ,         ets.com and s
                                                                                                              securities.com
                                                                                                                           m
         Keynote Cap
                   pitals Institu
                                utional Resea
                                            arch –awarde “India’s B
                                                            ed         Best IPO Ana  alyst 2009” by MCX-Zee B Business
K E Y N O T E
Munjal Showa Ltd                                                                                      Date: 21-Dec-2012

 Key Stock Data                          Investment Summary
Sector               Auto Parts            Dominant position in shock absorbers: At present only two domestic players,
CMP                  `63.25                Gabriel India (GIL) and MSL dominate the industry by contributing 80% of total industry
52wk High/Low         88.0/60.0            volumes. MSL commands a market share of above 55% in two-wheeler shock
Market Cap           `255Cr                absorbers.
6m Avg. daily vol    13132
                                           Munjal Showa is not affected due to separation of Hero and Honda: Munjal showa
BSE Sensex           19453.9
Reco                 ‘Buy’                 supply its product to Hero Motocorp and Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India. Both
Target Price          `85.71               clients have aggressive expansion plans, which would be beneficial for the Munjal
                                           Showa.
 Stock Codes
                                           Strong growth going forward, sales at a CAGR of 18.2% over FY09-FY14E: MSL
Bloomberg Code       MJS IN                management stressed that current capacities of the company will be able to fulfill the
Reuters Code         MNJL.BO               expected demand from the clients. Given its end-to-end arrangement with its clients,
BSE Code             520043                we expect company’s Net sale to grow at 18.2% CAGR for the period of FY09-FY14E.
NSE Code             MUNJALSHOW
Face Value           `2                    Lower tax and interest outgo to ensure robust profit growth: MSL’s Haridwar Plant
                                           is on tax free regime and therefore EPS accretive. We expect it to bring down effective
 Shareholding pattern                      tax rate from 21.9% in FY12 to 11% in FY13.
 (30th Sep, 2012)
                                           Attractive Dividend Paying History: MSL’s stock price gives a healthy dividend yield
                                           of 4.74. The company increased its dividend by 20% from `2.5/share to `3/share in
          Other                            FY12. Increase in dividend yield also demonstrates that the company is in stable
            s
          33.10                            growth conditions.
           %
                                           Munjal Showa VS Gabriel India: After comparing MSL with Gabriel India, We found
                    Prom
  DII                oter
                                           MSL trading at steep discount to Gabriel India on the basis of PE and P/S ratio.
1.86%               65.02
                      %                    Valuations: We initiate coverage with “Buy” recommendation with the DDM based
    FII
  0.02%                                    target price of `85.71, arriving at 4.68x FY13E and 3.71x FY14 earning for the levered
                                           firm.
 Price Performance                 (%)
                                         Key Financials                                                                     (`Cr)
1 Mth 3 Mths        6 Mths 1 Yr
-2.1% -3.6%         -19.2% -0.2%
                                          Particulars                 FY09         FY10      FY11       FY12    FY13E      FY14E
                                          Net Sales                   829.4        988.0   1,289.3    1,556.9   1,699.6    1,913.6
 Stock Price Performance
                                          YoY Growth %               16.9%        19.1%     30.5%      20.8%       9.2%     12.6%
          MSL             Sensex          Total Expenditure           788.5        934.1   1208.3      1434.2   1582.0     1776.4
 145                                      EBITDA                       40.9         53.9      81.0      122.7     117.6      137.2
                                          YoY Growth %               24.1%        31.7%     50.2%      51.5%      -4.1%     16.7%
 135
                                          EBITDA Margin (%)           4.9%         5.5%      6.3%       7.9%       6.9%      7.2%
 125                                      NPAT                         20.7         24.6      34.0       67.1       73.3      92.3
                                          YoY Growth %                3.6%        19.8%     34.1%     102.1%     10.5%      26.0%
 115
                                          NPAT Margin (%)             2.5%         2.5%      2.6%       4.3%       4.3%      4.8%
 105                                      ROE (%)                    13.0%        14.2%     17.7%      29.2%     26.0%      27.2%
  95                                      EPS (`)                       5.2          6.2       8.5       16.8       18.3      23.1
                                          PE(x)                        12.2         10.3       7.4        3.8        3.5       2.7
                                          P/BV(x)                       1.6          1.5       1.3        1.1        0.9       0.7
                                         E- Keynote Capitals Research Estimates



Keynote Capitals Research                                                                                                     2
                                                          
                                                                     
                                                                                           
                                                                                                      K E Y N O T E 
                             Abo Compa
                               out   any
                             Mun Showa, a Hero group company wa established in 1985 in c
                                njal                                 as          d           collaboration with Showa
                             Corp
                                poration of JJapan. The Company op    perates as a ancillary and manufac
                                                                                 an                        ctures auto
                             components for th two-wheeler and four-w
                                              he                     wheeler indust Its primar products ar front fork,
                                                                                  try.       ry           re
                             shoc absorbers, struts, gas s
                                ck            ,          springs and w
                                                                     window balancers. The company opera  ates through
                             plants based in H
                                             Haryana and U
                                                         Uttarakhand.

                                duct-wise rev
                             Prod           venue break (FY12)
                                                      kup                                                      Chart 1


    Shoc absorbers
        ck
 contribuutes more th
                    han
                                                0.67%
   90% in the top-line
         n           e
                                                    3.24%
                                                        %                       90.52%
                                                            5.57%



 Market leader in two-
        shock absorb  
wheeler s           bers
                                     Shock A
                                           Absorbers            Struts        Othe
                                                                                 ers         Window Balan
                                                                                             W          ncers


                             Mun Showa re
                                njal        eported sales growth of 2
                                                         s           20.8% in FY1 while its e
                                                                                12           earnings rose 97.3% on
                                                                                                         e
                             impr
                                roved margins. A strong eexpansion in PAT margin f
                                                                                 from 2.5% to 4.3% demon
                                                                                            o            nstrates the
  A stron expansion in
        ng          n
                             impr
                                roved operatio
                                             onal environm
                                                         ment.
PAT marg from 2.5% to
         gin         %
 4.3% demonstrates t the     Munnjal Showa’s client base includes like Maruti S
                                                           e                      Suzuki, Hero Motocorp a   and Honda
  improve operation
         ed          nal     Moto             ently, the group company Hero Motoco contribute the major c
                                 orcyles. Curre                                   orp         es            chunk in the
        vironment.  
      env                    top line of MSL. T
                                              Therefore, MS is benefitin from Hero’s expanding product portfo
                                                           SL          ng                                   olio.

                             Client List                                                                       Chart 2


                                                Maruti Su
                                                        uzuki Ltd.


                                                  Hero Mo
                                                        otoCorp Ltd.
   Currenntly, the grou
                      up
company Hero Motoc
        y             corp
  contributes the maj jor                          Hero M
                                                        Motors Ltd.
 chunk in the top line of
         n            e                                                                            Munjal sh
                                                                                                           howa Ltd.
           MSL 
                                   Honda Mo
                                          otorcycles an Scooters I
                                                      nd         India (Pvt) Lt
                                                                              td.


                                              Honda-Siel Cars India L
                                                                    Ltd.


                                                  Majesti Auto Ltd.
                                                        ic



          3                                                                         Keynote Ca
                                                                                             apitals Resea
                                                                                                         arch
K E Y N O T E
                          Key Management Personnel
                          Munjal Showa established out of technical and financial collaboration between Hero group
MSL established out of    and Showa Corporation of Japan. While Showa Corporation holds 26% stake and Munjal
technical and financial   group holds 39% stake in the company as on Q2FY13. MSL is the sole supplier of shock
collaboration between     absorbers to Hero Motocorp Ltd. Following is the list of key management people in the
Hero group and Showa
                          company.
 Corporation of Japan. 
                          Management People                                                                  Chart 3

                                            Mr.Brijmohan Lall Munjal - Chairman/Founder Director
Strong assistance from
    promoter group                          Mr.Mahesh Taneja - Chief Financial Officer

                                            Mr.Yogesh Chander Munjal - Managing Director

                                           Mr.Tetsuo Terada - Joint Managing Director

                                            Mr.Pankaj Gupta - Gen Mgr:F&A/Secretary

                          Performance at glance
                          MSL has come up out of the turbulent years FY08 and FY09 strongly. While its sales grew
                          2.5% and 16.9% in terms of Net sales during FY08 and FY09 respectively, PAT declined by
 FY12 was much better
                          23.1% in FY08 and showed moderate by 3.6% in FY09. The growth was tempered by steep
year as company posted
 improved performance     rise in interest rates and phenomenal increase in raw material inputs especially steel. The
  owing to recovery in    slowdown has resulted in direct impact on the productions and sales of the component
   domestic market.       manufactures.

                          Whereas, FY12 was much better year as company posted improved performance owing to
                          recovery in domestic market.  The company also reported Net sales and PAT growth at a
                          CAGR of 17.6% and 21.0% for the period of FY07-12.
                                                                                                     `Cr
                                                                                                                    5 Yr
                          Particulars                     FY08        FY09       FY10       FY11           FY12    CAGR
                                                                                                                    (%)
MSL reported Net sales    Net Sales                        709.4      829.4      988.0     1289.3       1556.9    17.6%
 and PAT growth at a      % Change                         2.5%      16.9%      19.1%      30.5%        20.8%
 CAGR of 17.6% and
                          EBITDA                            33.0       40.9       53.9       81.0        122.7    24.2%
21.0% for the period of
                          EBITDA Margin (%)                4.7%       4.9%       5.5%       6.3%         7.9%
       FY07-12. 
                          PAT                               19.7       20.4       24.5       32.8         66.3    21.0%
                          PAT Margin (%)                   2.8%       2.5%       2.5%       2.5%         4.3%
                          % Change                       -23.1%       3.6%      19.8%      34.1%       102.1%
                          EPS (`)                            4.8        5.2        6.2        8.5         16.8
                          Dividend yield (%)               3.2%       3.2%       3.2%       4.0%         4.7%
                          Installed Capacity
                          Shock Absorbers (No)     21513000        21513000   30542400   30542400    30542400
                          Struts (No)               1212000         2424000    2424000    2424000     2424000
                          Window Balancers (No)     1006500         1006500     818100     818100      818100

      Keynote Capitals Research                                                                                    4
                                                      
                                                                                               K E Y N O T E 
                          Investment Rationale
                          Dominant position in shock absorbers
   MSL commands a         Being a technology intensive industry, unorganised sector has no presence in the OEM
 market share of above    segment for shock absorbers. At present only two domestic players, Gabriel India (GIL) and
  55% in two-wheeler      MSL dominate the industry by contributing 80% of total industry volumes. MSL commands a
   shock absorbers        market share of above 55% in two-wheeler shock absorbers and about 8% in the passenger
                          cars segment.

                          During the year 2010-11 the Market size of shock absorber grew 31% y-o-y to `3644Cr.
  According to CMIE,      According to CMIE, the market will cross `5300Cr in 2013-14 registering a CAGR of 14%
   Shock absorbers
                          during FY11-14. CMIE expects the industry’s sales to grow by 16.3% in FY13. In terms of
   market will cross
  `5300Cr in 2013-14      input costs as well, the industry is better off. Steel prices are expected to rise by a moderate
                          3.7% during the year. Hence, raw material expenses are likely to rise in line with sales.

                           Particulars      Units             2009-10     2010-11     2011-12E     2012-13E      2013-14E

                           Production       000 nos            56358.9    68919.6       74777.8        82106       91794.5
   CMIE expects the
  industry’s sales to      Export           Tonnes              3748.3     8512.1        9005.8       9951.5         11683
grow by 16.3% in FY13. 
                           Import           Tonnes              2679.2     5300.7        5692.9         6441        7481.2

                           Realisation      Rs./Numbers          487.1      518.8         534.4         555.7        575.2

                           Sales            Rs crore            2745.4     3575.5        3995.8       4562.6        5279.7

                           Domestic
                                            Rs crore            2782.1       3644        4079.4       4665.3        5397.6
                           Market value
                          Source CMIE 
  Under the JV Hero
Group could not export    Munjal Showa is not affected due to separation of Hero and Honda
    to international
                          In December 2010, the Board of Directors of the Hero Honda Group have decided to
 markets (except Sri
                          terminate the joint venture between Hero Group of India and Honda of Japan. The Hero
    Lanka) and the
                          Group would buy out the 26% stake of the Honda. Under the joint venture Hero Group could
  termination would
                          not export to international markets (except Sri Lanka) and the termination would mean that
mean that Hero Group
                          Hero Group can now export.
   can now export.
                          Munjal Showa to benefit from Hero Motocorp and HMSI’s expansion plans.

 Hero Motocorp and          Munjal showa is sole supplier to Hero Motocorp Ltd.
Honda Motorcycle have       MSL also provides products to Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India, Private Limited (HMSI).
   very aggressive          HMSI is the wholly owned subsidiary of Honda Motor Company Ltd, Japan.
   expansion plans
                            Hero Motocorp and Honda Motorcycle have very aggressive expansion plans, which would
                            be beneficial for the Munjal Showa.




          5                                                                         Keynote Capitals Research
K E Y N O T E
                          Strong growth going forward, sales at a CAGR of 18.2% over FY09-FY14E
 New product launches
                          Munjal showa is a supplier of shock absorber to leading two wheeler player. The company
  by two wheeler auto
   giants will create a   has been supplying shock absorbers to HMCL (Hero Motocorp Ltd), HMSI (Honda
  huge demand for the     Motorcycles and Scooters India Pvt Ltd) etc. MSL is a sole supplier of shock absorbers to
 company’s products.      HMCL. Company’s existing clients have targeted to meet predetermined sales targets with
                          around 10% growth, with the support of new models likely to be launched both in 2 Wheeler
                          and 4 Wheeler segment in the coming years.

                          MSL’s manufacturing units in Gurgaon, Manesar and Haridwar with installed capacities of
  MSL management
                          30.54Mn Shock absorbers, 2.42Mn Struts and 0.82Mn Window balancer are almost using
 stressed that current
   capacities of the      their full capacities. During FY12 MSL produced 32.36Mn Shock absorbers, 0.98Mn Struts
company will be able to   and 0.74Mn window balancer which we expect to register a CAGR of 2.8%, 9.2% and 4.5%
  fulfill the expected    respectively over FY12-14E ensuing from the demand from the client on new launches and
   demand from the        better domestic demand. MSL management stressed that current capacities of the company
          clients         will be able to fulfill the expected demand from the clients. Given its end-to-end arrangement
                          with its clients, we expect company’s Net sale to grow at 18.2% CAGR for the period of
                          FY09-FY14E.

                          Net Sales to grow 9.2% in FY13E                                                            Chart 5
   MSL’s installed
capacities of 30.54Mn         2500                                                                                             35%
  Shock absorbers,                                                                                                 1913.6      30%
 2.42Mn Struts and            2000                                                                     1699.6
                                                                                            1556.9                             25%
   0.82Mn Window
                           ` Cr




                              1500                                           1289.3                                            20%
       balancer                                                  988.0
                              1000                829.4                                                                        15%
                                        709.4
                                                                                                                               10%
                                  500
                                                                                                                               5%
                                    0                                                                                          0%
                                        FY08      FY09           FY10         FY11          FY12       FY13E       FY14E

                                                                Net Sales           % Growth (RHS)


                          Lower tax and interest outgo to ensure robust profit growth

  Lower tax is game       MSL’s Haridwar Plant is on tax free regime and therefore EPS accretive. We expect it to
   changer for the        bring down effective tax rate from 21.9% in FY12 to 11% in FY13.
     company

                                                                            FY12                                    FY13
                          Particulars
                                                          Q1          Q2              Q3              Q4           Q1           Q2
                          Total Tax (` Cr)                3.9        3.81            2.85            8.21         1.66         0.72

                          % Change Q-o-Q           -16.3%           -2.3%          -25.2%       188.1%          -79.8%      -56.6%

                          % Change Y-o-Y             8.0%          56.8%           -12.0%          76.2%        -57.4%      -81.1%

                          % Effective tax rate      19.8%          21.3%           17.8%           25.4%        10.9%          7.6%


      Keynote Capitals Research                                                                                                  6
                                                       
                                                                                                 K E Y N O T E 
                        Tax Rate to go down                                                                                      Chart 7

                          25.00                                                                                                     40.0%
                                                         37.1%                                                            23.09
 MSL posted strong                         35.1%                       36.4%                                                        35.0%
EPS growth of 97.18%      20.00
in FY12 as compared                                                                  29.0%                        18.32             30.0%
                                                                                                   16.78
      to FY11             15.00                                                                                                     25.0%
                                                                                                   21.9%
                                                                                                                                    20.0%
                          10.00                                                                                                     15.0%
                                                                                     8.51
                                                                                                                  11.5%
                                                         5.17
                                                                       6.15                                                 10.0% 10.0%
                           5.00            4.83
                                                                                                                                    5.0%
                           0.00                                                                                                     0.0%
                                    FY08          FY09          FY10          FY11          FY12       FY13E          FY14E

                                                     EPS (`)              Effective Tax Rate (%) (RHS)

                        Interest cost to go down due to repayment of loan

                        Apart from tax benefits, the company is also reducing pressure of debt from its balance
                        sheet. As on FY12 the company has total debt of `73.16Cr, which includes secured loan of
    Apart from tax      `63.16cr and unsecured loan of `10Cr. Total debt of the company declined by 15% as
benefits, the company
                        compared to FY11. MSL reported interest coverage ratio of 10.99x in FY12 as compared to
   is also reducing
                        8.86x in the previous year. This indicates that earnings can easily cover interest payment.
pressure of debt from
  its balance sheet.    The Debt to Equity ratio is expected to decline to 0.13x by FY14E from 0.29x (FY12) on
                        account of a reduction in debt. The interest coverage ratio is expected to improve to 27.58x in
                        FY14E from 10.99x (FY12) owing to decline in the interest outgo.
                        Improvement in Debt to Equity Ratio                                                                      Chart 8
                          0.80                                                                                                      30.00
                                                                0.68
                          0.70
                                                  0.61                                                                              25.00
                          0.60
 The Debt to Equity                                                                                                                 20.00
                          0.50
 ratio is expected to                                                         0.42
 decline to 0.13x by      0.40                                                                                                      15.00
  FY14E from 0.29x                                                                          0.29
                          0.30      0.23
(FY12) on account of                                                                                                                10.00
                                                                                                           0.19
 a reduction in debt.     0.20                                                                                            0.13
                                                                                                                                    5.00
                          0.10
                          0.00                                                                                                      0.00
                                   FY08           FY09          FY10          FY11          FY12       FY13E          FY14E

                                      Total Debt to Equity (x)                       Interest coverage ratio (x) (RHS)




          7                                                                                   Keynote Capitals Research
K E Y N O T E
                          The tax and interest benefit will ensure steady cash flows and intact earnings growth for the
                          company in the current scenario of increasing raw material costs and wage hike.

                          Margins impressive going forward                                                         Chart 6
                             2500                                                                                             9%
Lower tax and interest                                                                     7.9%                               8%
   outgo to ensure                2000                                                                6.9%         7.2%       7%
 robust profit growth                                                        6.3%                                             6%
                                  1500                              5.5%
                                            4.7%        4.9%                                                       4.8%       5%
                           ` Cr
                                                                                           4.3%       4.3%                    4%
                                  1000
                                            2.8%                                                                              3%
                                                        2.5%        2.5%     2.5%
                                   500                                                                                        2%
                                                                                                                              1%
                                     0                                                                                        0%
                                            FY08        FY09        FY10     FY11         FY12        FY13E        FY14E
                                                   Net Sales        EBITDA Margin (RHS)           PAT Margin (RHS)


                          Attractive Dividend Paying History

                          MSL’s stock price gives a healthy dividend yield of 4.74. The company increased its dividend
                          by 20% from `2.5/share to `3/share in FY12. Increase in dividend yield also demonstrates
 Increase in dividend     that the company is in stable growth conditions.
      yield also          Dividend History
demonstrates that the
                           Year End                              200803    200903         201003       201103         201203
company is in stable
  growth conditions.       Dividend amount (`Cr)                      8          8                8           10             12
                           Dividend %                               100        100           100             125           150
                           Dividend Yield (%)*                   3.16%      3.16%          3.16%        3.95%          4.74%
                          *Stock price considered = `63.25 per share 
                          We expect MSL to maintain a payout ratio in the range of 15% to 17.7% in FY13E and
                          FY14E. We have built in an estimate for dividend per share at `3.25 and `3.5 for FY13E and
    The company           FY14E respectively.
increased its dividend    Dividend Yield                                                                           Chart 9
     by 20% from
`2.5/share to `3/share      6%                                                                                     5.53%
                                                                                                      5.14%
       in FY12                                                                        4.74%
                            5%
                                                                            3.95%
                            4%           3.16%       3.16%        3.16%
                            3%
                            2%
                            1%
                            0%
                                         FY08        FY09         FY10      FY11       FY12           FY13E        FY14E

                                                                      Dividend Yield (%)


      Keynote Capitals Research                                                                                               8
                                                              
                                                                                              K E Y N O T E 
                        Peer comparison

MSL trading at steep    We have compared MSL with its immediate competitor Gabriel India. Gabriel India is a
 discount to Gabriel    manufacturer and supplier of Shock absorbers, Struts, Front forks and Engine bearings. It
India on the basis of   also has a wide range of Ride control products. It has well-known clients like Bajaj Auto,
  PE and P/S ratio.     Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors etc.

                        After comparing MSL with Gabriel India, We found MSL trading at steep discount to Gabriel
                        India on the basis of PE and P/S ratio.

                        Munjal Showa VS Gabriel India                                                               `Cr

                                                            Munjal Showa Ltd                    Gabriel India Ltd
                         Particulars
                                                                   FY12                               FY12

                         Net Sales                                1556.88                            1128.24
 Dividend yield of
 munjal showa is         PAT                                       66.33                              47.47
  higher than the
   Gabriel India.        PAT Margin (%)                             4.3%                              4.2%

                         EPS (`)                                   16.78                              3.61

                         PE (x)                                     3.77                              7.83

                         Stock Price (`)                           63.25                              28.25

                         Mkt cap (`)                                257                              405.67

                         P/Sale (x)                                 0.17                              0.36

                         Dividend Yield (%)                        4.74%                             2.31%


                        Valuations

                        At current market price of `63.25 stock is trading at 3.45x FY13E and 2.74x FY14E earnings,
                        Which is low as compared to Gabriel India. Considering improved demand from clients and
 At current market
                        decline in the interest outgo as well as lower effective tax rate is likely to boost the bottom-
price of `63.25 stock
                        line of the company. We initiate coverage with “Buy” recommendation with the DDM based
 is trading at 3.45x
  FY13E and 2.74x       target price of `85.71, arriving at 4.68x FY13E and 3.71x FY14 earning for the levered firm.
  FY14E earnings,       Dividend Discount Model
   Which is low as
compared to Gabriel                     Gordon Growth Model
        India.
                                       Single stage DDM model

                                                                 FY12

                             Dividend Per Share                  3.00



         9                                                                        Keynote Capitals Research
K E Y N O T E
                                             Assumptions


                         CoE (r)
                         Rfr                                           8.00%
                         Rm                                           15.00%
                         Beta                                            0.54
                         CoE                                          11.78%
                         Gn                                               8%
                         Target Price (`)                               85.71
                         Upside                                       33.93%

                        Valuations Table

  ROE to be in the
range of 25% to 28%     Particulars                              FY09         FY10      FY11     FY12      FY13E        FY14E


                        EPS (`)                                       5.17       6.15    8.51     16.78         18.32    23.09


                        RoE (%)                                       13%        14%     18%       29%          26%       27%


                        P/E (x)                                      12.23      10.28    7.44      3.77          3.45     2.74


                        Price/BV (x)                                  1.58       1.46    1.32      1.10          0.90     0.75


                        Risk and concern

                               The key concerns are volatility in raw material prices such as steel, iron etc

                               The concentration of business with few customers, may adversely affect the profitability
                               of the Company.

                               The profitability of the Company may further be affected by changes in Government
                               Policies regarding excise duty and import duty.




    Keynote Capitals Research                                                                                             10
                                                         
                                                                                                K E Y N O T E 
                          Financial Statement
                          Profit and Loss A/C                                                                          `Cr
  Net sale to grow at
   12.6% in FY14 on       Y/E, 31st March                          FY09     FY10      FY11      FY12     FY13E     FY14E
    account of new        Net Sales                                829.4    988.0    1,289.3   1,556.9   1,699.6   1,913.6
 launches and better      % change                                16.9%     19.1%     30.5%     20.8%      9.2%     12.6%
  domestic demand         EBITDA                                    40.9     53.9      81.0     122.7     117.6     137.2
                          EBITDA margin (%)                        4.9%     5.5%       6.3%      7.9%      6.9%      7.2%
                          Other income                              14.3     20.0        2.3       1.6       1.1       0.9
  We expect effective     Interest exp/ (inc)                        5.5     12.1       9.1      11.2       7.0       5.0
  tax rate to go down     PBTD                                      49.8     61.8      74.2     113.1     111.7     133.1
from 21.9% in FY12 to     Depreciation                              16.9     23.1      26.3      27.2      28.9      30.5
     11% in FY13.         PBT                                       32.9     38.7      47.9      85.9      82.8     102.6
                          Taxes                                     12.2     14.1      13.9      18.8       9.5      10.3
                          PAT (Reported)                            20.7     24.6      34.0      67.1      73.3      92.3
 PAT margin to be in      Less: Extraordinary Income /Others         0.3      0.1       1.2       0.8       0.0       0.0
the range of 4% ‐ 4.8%    Adj PAT                                   20.4     24.5      32.8      66.3      73.3      92.3

  in FY13E & FY14E        Adj PAT margin (%)                       2.5%     2.5%       2.5%      4.3%      4.3%      4.8%
                          Source: E- Keynote capitals Research
                          Balance Sheet Statement                                                                      `Cr

                          Y/E, 31st March                           FY09     FY10      FY11      FY12    FY13E     FY14E
                                          Liabilities
                          Equity share capital                        8.0      8.0       8.0       8.0       8.0      8.0
                          Total Res. & Surplus                      157.3    172.6     195.0     248.2    300.5     361.9
Total loan fund was       Total Shareholders’ funds                 165.3    180.6     203.0     256.2    308.5     369.9
declined by 14.6% in         Secured Loan                           101.3     88.8      80.7      63.2      50.5     44.7
        FY12                 Unsecured Loan                           0.0     34.9       5.0      10.0       8.0      5.0
                          Total loans                               101.3    123.7      85.7      73.2      58.5     49.7
                          Deferred tax lia.                          13.6     17.3      16.7      15.7      16.6     17.6
                          Other liability                             0.0      0.0       0.6       0.7       0.7      0.7
                          Total liabilities                         280.2    321.5     306.0     345.6    384.3     437.9
                                              Assets
                          Net fixed assets                          199.8    254.2     254.5     245.0    262.7     282.3
   Cash and Cash          Capital WIP                                40.6      8.5       8.6      11.2      10.9     11.6
equivalents increased     Total non-current assets                  240.3    262.8     263.1     256.2    273.6     293.9
  by 51.6% in FY12        Inv - non current                          10.0      5.0       0.0       3.0       3.0      3.0
                          Current assets
                          Inventories                                28.8     30.4      36.7      49.1      52.5     61.2
                          Sundry debtors                             91.5    128.2     143.0     176.0    189.5     200.3
                          Cash & cash equivalents                     5.3      2.4       3.1       4.7       5.6      6.1
                          Loans and Advances                         29.4     37.3      45.0      45.7      49.3     55.3
                          Total current assets                      154.9    198.3     227.7     275.5    296.9     322.9
                          Total current liabilities                 116.1    131.8     176.8     178.2    177.5     168.3
                          Total provisions                           13.1     16.3      14.8      15.9      17.4     19.4
                          Net current assets                         25.8     50.2      36.2      81.4    102.0     135.1
                          Other Asset                                 4.1      3.5       6.8       5.0       5.6      5.8
                          Total assets                              280.2    321.5     306.0     345.6    384.3     437.9
                          Source: E- Keynote capitals Research


          11                                                                         Keynote Capitals Research
K E Y N O T E
                          Cash Flow Statement                                                                                `Cr

                           Y/E, 31st March                          FY09          FY10      FY11         FY12    FY13E     FY14E
                           Cash flow from operations
                             PBT                                        32.9       38.7      47.9         85.9     82.8     102.6
                             Tax paid                                   12.2       14.1      13.9         18.8      9.5       10.3
                             Dep & amortization                         16.9       23.1      26.3         27.2     28.9       30.5
                             Working capital changes                     0.7       27.3    (14.7)         43.6     19.8       32.6
                             Others                                     (0.3)     (8.1)          2.1     (4.9)    (21.6)    (25.2)
                           A-Net cash from operations                   36.6       12.3      77.0         45.9     60.8       65.1
                           B-Net cash from investments                  90.7       31.9      26.9         16.7     25.4       25.8
                           C-Net cash from financing                    57.3      16.7     (49.5)       (27.5)    (34.6)    (38.8)
                           Net change in cash (A-B+C)                    3.1      (2.9)       0.7          1.6       0.8       0.5
                           Cash at the end of the period                 5.3        2.4       3.1          4.7       5.6       6.1
                          Source: E- Keynote capitals Research

                          Key Ratios

                           Y/E, 31st March                        FY09           FY10      FY11          FY12    FY13E     FY14E
                           Growth
                           Net sales (%)                         16.9%          19.1%     30.5%        20.8%     9.2%      12.6%
                           EBITDA (%)                            24.1%          31.7%     50.2%        51.5%     -4.1%     16.7%
                           PAT adjusted (%)                      3.6%           19.8%     34.1%        102.1%    10.5%     26.0%

MSL is trading at 3.8x
                           Valuations
FY12 earnings, which
is low as compared to      EPS (`)                                5.2            6.2       8.5          16.8     18.3      23.1
    its historical PE      P/E (x)                               12.2           10.3       7.4          3.8       3.5       2.7
                           Price/BV (x)                           1.6            1.5       1.3          1.1       0.9       0.7
                           EV/EBITDA (x)                          8.5            6.9       4.1          2.6       2.6       2.2
                           P/Sales (x)                           0.31           0.26      0.20          0.16     0.15      0.13


                           Profitability
                           EBITDA margin (%)                     4.9%           5.5%      6.3%         7.9%      6.9%      7.2%
                           Adj PAT margin (%)                    2.5%           2.5%      2.6%         4.3%      4.3%      4.8%
Debt to equity to be in    RoE (%)                               13.0%          14.2%     17.7%        29.2%     26.0%     27.2%
    comfort zone           RoCE (%)                              9.5%           11.3%     20.3%        32.5%     27.8%     28.3%


                           B/S ratios
                           Inventory days                        10.6           10.2       8.8          9.3      10.1      10.1
                           Creditor days                         33.7           32.5      34.5          35.2     31.7      27.4
                           Debtors days                          33.0           37.8      35.6          34.8     36.5      34.8
                           Debt/equity                           0.61           0.68      0.42          0.29     0.19      0.13
                          Source: E- Keynote capitals Research




      Keynote Capitals Research                                                                                                   12
                                                         
                                                                                                              K E Y N O T E 




                                                    KEYNOTE CAPITALS LTD.
                                                               Member
                                              Stock Exchange, Mumbai (INB 010930556)
                                        National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (INB 230930539)
                                       Over the Counter Exchange of India Ltd. (INB 200930535)
                                       Central Depository Services Ltd. (IN-DP-CDSL-152-2001)
                                                          The Ruby, 9th Floor
                                                         Senapati Bapat Marg
                                                    Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028.
                                               T: +91-22-30266000, F: +91-22-30266088
                                                       www.keynotecapitals.com


DISCLAIMER
• This report has been prepared and issued by Keynote Capitals Limited, based solely on public information and sources believed to be
reliable.
• Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein, constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities
or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities and also for the purpose of trading activities.
• Keynote Capitals Limited makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied and accepts no responsibility or liability as to
the accuracy or completeness or correctness of the information in this report.
• Keynote Capitals and its affiliates and their respective officers, directors and employees may hold positions in any securities mentioned in
this Report (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any securities or investments.
• Keynote Capitals may also have proprietary trading positions in securities covered in this report or in related instruments.
• An affiliate of Keynote Capitals Limited may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for the
company under coverage.
• If ‘Buy’, ‘Sell’, or ‘Hold’ recommendation is made in this Report, such recommendation or view or opinion expressed on investments in this
Report is not intended to constitute investment advice and should not be intended or treated as a substitute for necessary review or
validation or any professional advice. The views expressed in this Report are those of the analyst which are subject to change and do not
represent to be an authority on the subject. Keynote Capitals may or may not subscribe to any and/ or all the views expressed herein.
• The opinions presented herein are liable to change without any notice.
• Though due care has been taken in the preparation of this report, Keynote Capitals limited or any of its directors, officers or employees shall
be in any way be responsible for any loss arising from the use thereof.
• Investors are advised to apply their judgment before acting on the contents of this report.
• This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Keynote Capitals Limited.




    13                                                                                            Keynote Capitals Research

Contenu connexe

Tendances

IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 AugustIFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
Intact
 
Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505
Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505
Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505
gro77
 
Taksheel solutions IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)
Taksheel solutions  IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)Taksheel solutions  IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)
Taksheel solutions IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Kpr report
Kpr reportKpr report
Kpr report
Four-S
 
csx Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729
csx  Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729csx  Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729
csx Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729
finance27
 
Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012
Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012
Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012
Four-S
 
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Angel Broking
 
Glaxo - Result Update
Glaxo - Result UpdateGlaxo - Result Update
Glaxo - Result Update
Angel Broking
 
61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india
jeetay
 
Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510
Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510
Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510
Angel Broking
 

Tendances (18)

Daily newsletter stoplosstrade 31st dec 2012
Daily newsletter stoplosstrade 31st dec 2012Daily newsletter stoplosstrade 31st dec 2012
Daily newsletter stoplosstrade 31st dec 2012
 
First Half 2012, Asia Pacific TPI Index
First Half 2012, Asia Pacific TPI IndexFirst Half 2012, Asia Pacific TPI Index
First Half 2012, Asia Pacific TPI Index
 
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 AugustIFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
 
Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505
Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505
Scotiabank. alicorp _02_jan2013_185807_ids_505
 
Korea Supplement
Korea SupplementKorea Supplement
Korea Supplement
 
Taksheel solutions IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)
Taksheel solutions  IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)Taksheel solutions  IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)
Taksheel solutions IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)
 
Kpr report
Kpr reportKpr report
Kpr report
 
csx Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729
csx  Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729csx  Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729
csx Bear_Stearns_Presentation_5-7-07_FINAL-REF23729
 
Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012
Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012
Kpr mill report_update_q3_fy12_v17_apr_2012
 
Finolex Cables
Finolex CablesFinolex Cables
Finolex Cables
 
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10Nestle  ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
Nestle ru2 qcy2010-02-08-10
 
ACC LTD : SELL
ACC LTD : SELLACC LTD : SELL
ACC LTD : SELL
 
Korea fund4q presentation
Korea fund4q presentationKorea fund4q presentation
Korea fund4q presentation
 
Glaxo - Result Update
Glaxo - Result UpdateGlaxo - Result Update
Glaxo - Result Update
 
61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india61107576 rallis-india
61107576 rallis-india
 
Marico
Marico Marico
Marico
 
Colgate Palmolive
Colgate PalmoliveColgate Palmolive
Colgate Palmolive
 
Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510
Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510
Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510
 

Similaire à Munjal show ltd

All ru2 qfy2011-201010
All ru2 qfy2011-201010All ru2 qfy2011-201010
All ru2 qfy2011-201010
Angel Broking
 
Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services
Angel Broking
 
Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011
Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011
Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011
aatulsb
 
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result UpdatedInfosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
Angel Broking
 
Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410
Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410
Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410
Angel Broking
 
Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010
Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010
Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010
Angel Broking
 
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
Angel Broking
 
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
Angel Broking
 
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Angel Broking
 
Marico Result Update
Marico Result UpdateMarico Result Update
Marico Result Update
Angel Broking
 
Tata motors ru4 qfy2010-280510
Tata motors  ru4 qfy2010-280510Tata motors  ru4 qfy2010-280510
Tata motors ru4 qfy2010-280510
Angel Broking
 
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-final
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-finalMPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-final
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-final
Angel Broking
 
All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510
All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510
All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510
Angel Broking
 
Cccl ru4 qfy2010-100510
Cccl  ru4 qfy2010-100510Cccl  ru4 qfy2010-100510
Cccl ru4 qfy2010-100510
Angel Broking
 

Similaire à Munjal show ltd (20)

All ru2 qfy2011-201010
All ru2 qfy2011-201010All ru2 qfy2011-201010
All ru2 qfy2011-201010
 
Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services Tata consultancy services
Tata consultancy services
 
Bhel 020212
Bhel 020212Bhel 020212
Bhel 020212
 
E72 f1fc5d01
E72 f1fc5d01E72 f1fc5d01
E72 f1fc5d01
 
Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011
Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011
Infosys 1 qfy2012ru-12072011
 
Infosys Result Updated
Infosys Result UpdatedInfosys Result Updated
Infosys Result Updated
 
E72 f1fc5d01
E72 f1fc5d01E72 f1fc5d01
E72 f1fc5d01
 
Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410
Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410
Ashok leyland ru4 qfy2010-300410
 
Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010
Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010
Tvs motor ru2 qfy2011-211010
 
Bhel 020212
Bhel 020212Bhel 020212
Bhel 020212
 
BHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result UpdateBHEL -Result Update
BHEL -Result Update
 
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
 
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10Elecon engineering   ic- 14-05-10
Elecon engineering ic- 14-05-10
 
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510
 
Marico Result Update
Marico Result UpdateMarico Result Update
Marico Result Update
 
Tata motors ru4 qfy2010-280510
Tata motors  ru4 qfy2010-280510Tata motors  ru4 qfy2010-280510
Tata motors ru4 qfy2010-280510
 
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-final
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-finalMPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-final
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-final
 
All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510
All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510
All cargo result update 1 qcy2010 050510
 
Cccl ru4 qfy2010-100510
Cccl  ru4 qfy2010-100510Cccl  ru4 qfy2010-100510
Cccl ru4 qfy2010-100510
 
Blue Star
Blue StarBlue Star
Blue Star
 

Plus de Keynote Capitals Ltd.

Keynote technicals daily report for 280313
Keynote technicals daily report for 280313Keynote technicals daily report for 280313
Keynote technicals daily report for 280313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328
Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328
Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313
Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313
Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote commodity daily report for 060313
Keynote commodity daily report for 060313Keynote commodity daily report for 060313
Keynote commodity daily report for 060313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technical daily report for 050313
Keynote technical daily report for 050313Keynote technical daily report for 050313
Keynote technical daily report for 050313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313
Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313
Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313
Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313
Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 280213
Keynote technicals daily report for 280213Keynote technicals daily report for 280213
Keynote technicals daily report for 280213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote commodity daily report for 280213
Keynote commodity daily report for 280213Keynote commodity daily report for 280213
Keynote commodity daily report for 280213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 260213
Keynote technicals daily report for 260213Keynote technicals daily report for 260213
Keynote technicals daily report for 260213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213
Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 

Plus de Keynote Capitals Ltd. (20)

Keynote technicals daily report for 280313
Keynote technicals daily report for 280313Keynote technicals daily report for 280313
Keynote technicals daily report for 280313
 
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280313
 
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280313
 
Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328
Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328
Keynote capitals india m orning note 20130328
 
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280313
 
Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313
Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313
Keynote technical commodity intraday levels for 060313
 
Keynote commodity daily report for 060313
Keynote commodity daily report for 060313Keynote commodity daily report for 060313
Keynote commodity daily report for 060313
 
Keynote technical daily report for 050313
Keynote technical daily report for 050313Keynote technical daily report for 050313
Keynote technical daily report for 050313
 
Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313
Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313
Keynote technical currency intraday levels for 050313
 
Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313
Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313
Keynote technical intraday future levels for 050313
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 280213
Keynote technicals daily report for 280213Keynote technicals daily report for 280213
Keynote technicals daily report for 280213
 
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 280213
 
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 280213
 
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 280213
 
Keynote commodity daily report for 280213
Keynote commodity daily report for 280213Keynote commodity daily report for 280213
Keynote commodity daily report for 280213
 
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213
Keynote technicals intraday future levels for 280213
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 260213
Keynote technicals daily report for 260213Keynote technicals daily report for 260213
Keynote technicals daily report for 260213
 
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals currency intraday levels for 260213
 
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213
Keynote technicals commodity intraday levels for 260213
 
Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213
Keynote derivatives daily report for 260213
 

Dernier

VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...
VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...
VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...
dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
Adnet Communications
 
From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...
From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...
From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...
From Luxury Escort : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangements Near yOU
 

Dernier (20)

(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
(Vedika) Low Rate Call Girls in Pune Call Now 8250077686 Pune Escorts 24x7
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 18.pdf
 
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Talegaon Dabhade 6297143586 Call Hot ...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Talegaon Dabhade  6297143586 Call Hot ...Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Talegaon Dabhade  6297143586 Call Hot ...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Talegaon Dabhade 6297143586 Call Hot ...
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Sinhagad Road ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine S...
 
VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...
VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...
VIP Call Girl Service Andheri West ⚡ 9920725232 What It Takes To Be The Best ...
 
Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
Mira Road Awesome 100% Independent Call Girls NUmber-9833754194-Dahisar Inter...
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 19.pdf
 
Call Girls in New Friends Colony Delhi 💯 Call Us 🔝9205541914 🔝( Delhi) Escort...
Call Girls in New Friends Colony Delhi 💯 Call Us 🔝9205541914 🔝( Delhi) Escort...Call Girls in New Friends Colony Delhi 💯 Call Us 🔝9205541914 🔝( Delhi) Escort...
Call Girls in New Friends Colony Delhi 💯 Call Us 🔝9205541914 🔝( Delhi) Escort...
 
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdfThe Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
The Economic History of the U.S. Lecture 23.pdf
 
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
 
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
 
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbaiVasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
Vasai-Virar Fantastic Call Girls-9833754194-Call Girls MUmbai
 
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
 
WhatsApp 📞 Call : 9892124323 ✅Call Girls In Chembur ( Mumbai ) secure service
WhatsApp 📞 Call : 9892124323  ✅Call Girls In Chembur ( Mumbai ) secure serviceWhatsApp 📞 Call : 9892124323  ✅Call Girls In Chembur ( Mumbai ) secure service
WhatsApp 📞 Call : 9892124323 ✅Call Girls In Chembur ( Mumbai ) secure service
 
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Shivane 6297143586 Call Hot Indian Gi...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Shivane  6297143586 Call Hot Indian Gi...Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Shivane  6297143586 Call Hot Indian Gi...
Booking open Available Pune Call Girls Shivane 6297143586 Call Hot Indian Gi...
 
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
02_Fabio Colombo_Accenture_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
 
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
 
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
05_Annelore Lenoir_Docbyte_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pptx
 
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
(INDIRA) Call Girl Mumbai Call Now 8250077686 Mumbai Escorts 24x7
 
From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...
From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...
From Luxury Escort Service Kamathipura : 9352852248 Make on-demand Arrangemen...
 

Munjal show ltd

  • 1.     K E Y N O T E   Munjal Show Ltd. wa   Deep A. K pak Kolhe, An nalyst deepa ak@keyno otecapitals.net  Keynote Cap pitals Institutio onal Research is also available on h Blo oomberg KNT <GO>, Th TE homson One AAnalytics, Reu uters Knowledge, Capital I TheMarke IQ, ets.com and s securities.com m Keynote Cap pitals Institu utional Resea arch –awarde “India’s B ed Best IPO Ana alyst 2009” by MCX-Zee B Business
  • 2. K E Y N O T E Munjal Showa Ltd Date: 21-Dec-2012 Key Stock Data Investment Summary Sector Auto Parts Dominant position in shock absorbers: At present only two domestic players, CMP `63.25 Gabriel India (GIL) and MSL dominate the industry by contributing 80% of total industry 52wk High/Low 88.0/60.0 volumes. MSL commands a market share of above 55% in two-wheeler shock Market Cap `255Cr absorbers. 6m Avg. daily vol 13132 Munjal Showa is not affected due to separation of Hero and Honda: Munjal showa BSE Sensex 19453.9 Reco ‘Buy’ supply its product to Hero Motocorp and Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India. Both Target Price `85.71 clients have aggressive expansion plans, which would be beneficial for the Munjal Showa. Stock Codes Strong growth going forward, sales at a CAGR of 18.2% over FY09-FY14E: MSL Bloomberg Code MJS IN management stressed that current capacities of the company will be able to fulfill the Reuters Code MNJL.BO expected demand from the clients. Given its end-to-end arrangement with its clients, BSE Code 520043 we expect company’s Net sale to grow at 18.2% CAGR for the period of FY09-FY14E. NSE Code MUNJALSHOW Face Value `2 Lower tax and interest outgo to ensure robust profit growth: MSL’s Haridwar Plant is on tax free regime and therefore EPS accretive. We expect it to bring down effective Shareholding pattern tax rate from 21.9% in FY12 to 11% in FY13. (30th Sep, 2012) Attractive Dividend Paying History: MSL’s stock price gives a healthy dividend yield of 4.74. The company increased its dividend by 20% from `2.5/share to `3/share in Other FY12. Increase in dividend yield also demonstrates that the company is in stable s 33.10 growth conditions. % Munjal Showa VS Gabriel India: After comparing MSL with Gabriel India, We found Prom DII oter MSL trading at steep discount to Gabriel India on the basis of PE and P/S ratio. 1.86% 65.02 % Valuations: We initiate coverage with “Buy” recommendation with the DDM based FII 0.02% target price of `85.71, arriving at 4.68x FY13E and 3.71x FY14 earning for the levered firm. Price Performance (%) Key Financials (`Cr) 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr -2.1% -3.6% -19.2% -0.2% Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Net Sales 829.4 988.0 1,289.3 1,556.9 1,699.6 1,913.6 Stock Price Performance YoY Growth % 16.9% 19.1% 30.5% 20.8% 9.2% 12.6% MSL Sensex Total Expenditure 788.5 934.1 1208.3 1434.2 1582.0 1776.4 145 EBITDA 40.9 53.9 81.0 122.7 117.6 137.2 YoY Growth % 24.1% 31.7% 50.2% 51.5% -4.1% 16.7% 135 EBITDA Margin (%) 4.9% 5.5% 6.3% 7.9% 6.9% 7.2% 125 NPAT 20.7 24.6 34.0 67.1 73.3 92.3 YoY Growth % 3.6% 19.8% 34.1% 102.1% 10.5% 26.0% 115 NPAT Margin (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% 105 ROE (%) 13.0% 14.2% 17.7% 29.2% 26.0% 27.2% 95 EPS (`) 5.2 6.2 8.5 16.8 18.3 23.1 PE(x) 12.2 10.3 7.4 3.8 3.5 2.7 P/BV(x) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 E- Keynote Capitals Research Estimates Keynote Capitals Research 2  
  • 3.                                                            K E Y N O T E  Abo Compa out any Mun Showa, a Hero group company wa established in 1985 in c njal as d collaboration with Showa Corp poration of JJapan. The Company op perates as a ancillary and manufac an ctures auto components for th two-wheeler and four-w he wheeler indust Its primar products ar front fork, try. ry re shoc absorbers, struts, gas s ck , springs and w window balancers. The company opera ates through plants based in H Haryana and U Uttarakhand. duct-wise rev Prod venue break (FY12) kup Chart 1 Shoc absorbers ck contribuutes more th han 0.67% 90% in the top-line n e 3.24% % 90.52% 5.57% Market leader in two- shock absorb   wheeler s bers Shock A Absorbers Struts Othe ers Window Balan W ncers Mun Showa re njal eported sales growth of 2 s 20.8% in FY1 while its e 12 earnings rose 97.3% on e impr roved margins. A strong eexpansion in PAT margin f from 2.5% to 4.3% demon o nstrates the A stron expansion in ng n impr roved operatio onal environm ment. PAT marg from 2.5% to gin % 4.3% demonstrates t the Munnjal Showa’s client base includes like Maruti S e Suzuki, Hero Motocorp a and Honda improve operation ed nal Moto ently, the group company Hero Motoco contribute the major c orcyles. Curre orp es chunk in the vironment.   env top line of MSL. T Therefore, MS is benefitin from Hero’s expanding product portfo SL ng olio. Client List Chart 2 Maruti Su uzuki Ltd. Hero Mo otoCorp Ltd. Currenntly, the grou up company Hero Motoc y corp contributes the maj jor Hero M Motors Ltd. chunk in the top line of n e Munjal sh howa Ltd. MSL  Honda Mo otorcycles an Scooters I nd India (Pvt) Lt td. Honda-Siel Cars India L Ltd. Majesti Auto Ltd. ic 3 Keynote Ca apitals Resea arch
  • 4. K E Y N O T E Key Management Personnel Munjal Showa established out of technical and financial collaboration between Hero group MSL established out of and Showa Corporation of Japan. While Showa Corporation holds 26% stake and Munjal technical and financial group holds 39% stake in the company as on Q2FY13. MSL is the sole supplier of shock collaboration between absorbers to Hero Motocorp Ltd. Following is the list of key management people in the Hero group and Showa company. Corporation of Japan.  Management People Chart 3 Mr.Brijmohan Lall Munjal - Chairman/Founder Director Strong assistance from promoter group Mr.Mahesh Taneja - Chief Financial Officer Mr.Yogesh Chander Munjal - Managing Director Mr.Tetsuo Terada - Joint Managing Director Mr.Pankaj Gupta - Gen Mgr:F&A/Secretary Performance at glance MSL has come up out of the turbulent years FY08 and FY09 strongly. While its sales grew 2.5% and 16.9% in terms of Net sales during FY08 and FY09 respectively, PAT declined by FY12 was much better 23.1% in FY08 and showed moderate by 3.6% in FY09. The growth was tempered by steep year as company posted improved performance rise in interest rates and phenomenal increase in raw material inputs especially steel. The owing to recovery in slowdown has resulted in direct impact on the productions and sales of the component domestic market.  manufactures. Whereas, FY12 was much better year as company posted improved performance owing to recovery in domestic market.  The company also reported Net sales and PAT growth at a CAGR of 17.6% and 21.0% for the period of FY07-12. `Cr 5 Yr Particulars FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 CAGR (%) MSL reported Net sales Net Sales 709.4 829.4 988.0 1289.3 1556.9 17.6% and PAT growth at a % Change 2.5% 16.9% 19.1% 30.5% 20.8% CAGR of 17.6% and EBITDA 33.0 40.9 53.9 81.0 122.7 24.2% 21.0% for the period of EBITDA Margin (%) 4.7% 4.9% 5.5% 6.3% 7.9% FY07-12.  PAT 19.7 20.4 24.5 32.8 66.3 21.0% PAT Margin (%) 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 4.3% % Change -23.1% 3.6% 19.8% 34.1% 102.1% EPS (`) 4.8 5.2 6.2 8.5 16.8 Dividend yield (%) 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 4.0% 4.7% Installed Capacity Shock Absorbers (No) 21513000 21513000 30542400 30542400 30542400 Struts (No) 1212000 2424000 2424000 2424000 2424000 Window Balancers (No) 1006500 1006500 818100 818100 818100 Keynote Capitals Research 4  
  • 5.                                                 K E Y N O T E  Investment Rationale Dominant position in shock absorbers MSL commands a Being a technology intensive industry, unorganised sector has no presence in the OEM market share of above segment for shock absorbers. At present only two domestic players, Gabriel India (GIL) and 55% in two-wheeler MSL dominate the industry by contributing 80% of total industry volumes. MSL commands a shock absorbers market share of above 55% in two-wheeler shock absorbers and about 8% in the passenger cars segment. During the year 2010-11 the Market size of shock absorber grew 31% y-o-y to `3644Cr. According to CMIE, According to CMIE, the market will cross `5300Cr in 2013-14 registering a CAGR of 14% Shock absorbers during FY11-14. CMIE expects the industry’s sales to grow by 16.3% in FY13. In terms of market will cross `5300Cr in 2013-14  input costs as well, the industry is better off. Steel prices are expected to rise by a moderate 3.7% during the year. Hence, raw material expenses are likely to rise in line with sales. Particulars Units 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12E 2012-13E 2013-14E Production 000 nos 56358.9 68919.6 74777.8 82106 91794.5 CMIE expects the industry’s sales to Export Tonnes 3748.3 8512.1 9005.8 9951.5 11683 grow by 16.3% in FY13.  Import Tonnes 2679.2 5300.7 5692.9 6441 7481.2 Realisation Rs./Numbers 487.1 518.8 534.4 555.7 575.2 Sales Rs crore 2745.4 3575.5 3995.8 4562.6 5279.7 Domestic Rs crore 2782.1 3644 4079.4 4665.3 5397.6 Market value Source CMIE  Under the JV Hero Group could not export Munjal Showa is not affected due to separation of Hero and Honda to international In December 2010, the Board of Directors of the Hero Honda Group have decided to markets (except Sri terminate the joint venture between Hero Group of India and Honda of Japan. The Hero Lanka) and the Group would buy out the 26% stake of the Honda. Under the joint venture Hero Group could termination would not export to international markets (except Sri Lanka) and the termination would mean that mean that Hero Group Hero Group can now export. can now export. Munjal Showa to benefit from Hero Motocorp and HMSI’s expansion plans. Hero Motocorp and Munjal showa is sole supplier to Hero Motocorp Ltd. Honda Motorcycle have MSL also provides products to Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India, Private Limited (HMSI). very aggressive HMSI is the wholly owned subsidiary of Honda Motor Company Ltd, Japan. expansion plans Hero Motocorp and Honda Motorcycle have very aggressive expansion plans, which would be beneficial for the Munjal Showa. 5 Keynote Capitals Research
  • 6. K E Y N O T E Strong growth going forward, sales at a CAGR of 18.2% over FY09-FY14E New product launches Munjal showa is a supplier of shock absorber to leading two wheeler player. The company by two wheeler auto giants will create a has been supplying shock absorbers to HMCL (Hero Motocorp Ltd), HMSI (Honda huge demand for the Motorcycles and Scooters India Pvt Ltd) etc. MSL is a sole supplier of shock absorbers to company’s products. HMCL. Company’s existing clients have targeted to meet predetermined sales targets with around 10% growth, with the support of new models likely to be launched both in 2 Wheeler and 4 Wheeler segment in the coming years. MSL’s manufacturing units in Gurgaon, Manesar and Haridwar with installed capacities of MSL management 30.54Mn Shock absorbers, 2.42Mn Struts and 0.82Mn Window balancer are almost using stressed that current capacities of the their full capacities. During FY12 MSL produced 32.36Mn Shock absorbers, 0.98Mn Struts company will be able to and 0.74Mn window balancer which we expect to register a CAGR of 2.8%, 9.2% and 4.5% fulfill the expected respectively over FY12-14E ensuing from the demand from the client on new launches and demand from the better domestic demand. MSL management stressed that current capacities of the company clients  will be able to fulfill the expected demand from the clients. Given its end-to-end arrangement with its clients, we expect company’s Net sale to grow at 18.2% CAGR for the period of FY09-FY14E. Net Sales to grow 9.2% in FY13E Chart 5 MSL’s installed capacities of 30.54Mn 2500 35% Shock absorbers, 1913.6 30% 2.42Mn Struts and 2000 1699.6 1556.9 25% 0.82Mn Window ` Cr 1500 1289.3 20% balancer  988.0 1000 829.4 15% 709.4 10% 500 5% 0 0% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Net Sales % Growth (RHS) Lower tax and interest outgo to ensure robust profit growth Lower tax is game MSL’s Haridwar Plant is on tax free regime and therefore EPS accretive. We expect it to changer for the bring down effective tax rate from 21.9% in FY12 to 11% in FY13. company FY12 FY13 Particulars Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Total Tax (` Cr) 3.9 3.81 2.85 8.21 1.66 0.72 % Change Q-o-Q -16.3% -2.3% -25.2% 188.1% -79.8% -56.6% % Change Y-o-Y 8.0% 56.8% -12.0% 76.2% -57.4% -81.1% % Effective tax rate 19.8% 21.3% 17.8% 25.4% 10.9% 7.6% Keynote Capitals Research 6  
  • 7.                                                 K E Y N O T E  Tax Rate to go down Chart 7 25.00 40.0% 37.1% 23.09 MSL posted strong 35.1% 36.4% 35.0% EPS growth of 97.18% 20.00 in FY12 as compared 29.0% 18.32 30.0% 16.78 to FY11 15.00 25.0% 21.9% 20.0% 10.00 15.0% 8.51 11.5% 5.17 6.15 10.0% 10.0% 5.00 4.83 5.0% 0.00 0.0% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E EPS (`) Effective Tax Rate (%) (RHS) Interest cost to go down due to repayment of loan Apart from tax benefits, the company is also reducing pressure of debt from its balance sheet. As on FY12 the company has total debt of `73.16Cr, which includes secured loan of Apart from tax `63.16cr and unsecured loan of `10Cr. Total debt of the company declined by 15% as benefits, the company compared to FY11. MSL reported interest coverage ratio of 10.99x in FY12 as compared to is also reducing 8.86x in the previous year. This indicates that earnings can easily cover interest payment. pressure of debt from its balance sheet.  The Debt to Equity ratio is expected to decline to 0.13x by FY14E from 0.29x (FY12) on account of a reduction in debt. The interest coverage ratio is expected to improve to 27.58x in FY14E from 10.99x (FY12) owing to decline in the interest outgo. Improvement in Debt to Equity Ratio Chart 8 0.80 30.00 0.68 0.70 0.61 25.00 0.60 The Debt to Equity 20.00 0.50 ratio is expected to 0.42 decline to 0.13x by 0.40 15.00 FY14E from 0.29x 0.29 0.30 0.23 (FY12) on account of 10.00 0.19 a reduction in debt. 0.20 0.13 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Total Debt to Equity (x) Interest coverage ratio (x) (RHS) 7 Keynote Capitals Research
  • 8. K E Y N O T E The tax and interest benefit will ensure steady cash flows and intact earnings growth for the company in the current scenario of increasing raw material costs and wage hike. Margins impressive going forward Chart 6 2500 9% Lower tax and interest 7.9% 8% outgo to ensure 2000 6.9% 7.2% 7% robust profit growth 6.3% 6% 1500 5.5% 4.7% 4.9% 4.8% 5% ` Cr 4.3% 4.3% 4% 1000 2.8% 3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 500 2% 1% 0 0% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT Margin (RHS) Attractive Dividend Paying History MSL’s stock price gives a healthy dividend yield of 4.74. The company increased its dividend by 20% from `2.5/share to `3/share in FY12. Increase in dividend yield also demonstrates Increase in dividend that the company is in stable growth conditions. yield also Dividend History demonstrates that the Year End 200803 200903 201003 201103 201203 company is in stable growth conditions. Dividend amount (`Cr) 8 8 8 10 12 Dividend % 100 100 100 125 150 Dividend Yield (%)* 3.16% 3.16% 3.16% 3.95% 4.74% *Stock price considered = `63.25 per share  We expect MSL to maintain a payout ratio in the range of 15% to 17.7% in FY13E and FY14E. We have built in an estimate for dividend per share at `3.25 and `3.5 for FY13E and The company FY14E respectively. increased its dividend Dividend Yield Chart 9 by 20% from `2.5/share to `3/share 6% 5.53% 5.14% in FY12 4.74% 5% 3.95% 4% 3.16% 3.16% 3.16% 3% 2% 1% 0% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Dividend Yield (%) Keynote Capitals Research 8  
  • 9.                                                 K E Y N O T E  Peer comparison MSL trading at steep We have compared MSL with its immediate competitor Gabriel India. Gabriel India is a discount to Gabriel manufacturer and supplier of Shock absorbers, Struts, Front forks and Engine bearings. It India on the basis of also has a wide range of Ride control products. It has well-known clients like Bajaj Auto, PE and P/S ratio. Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors etc. After comparing MSL with Gabriel India, We found MSL trading at steep discount to Gabriel India on the basis of PE and P/S ratio. Munjal Showa VS Gabriel India `Cr Munjal Showa Ltd Gabriel India Ltd Particulars FY12 FY12 Net Sales 1556.88 1128.24 Dividend yield of munjal showa is PAT 66.33 47.47 higher than the Gabriel India. PAT Margin (%) 4.3% 4.2% EPS (`) 16.78 3.61 PE (x) 3.77 7.83 Stock Price (`) 63.25 28.25 Mkt cap (`) 257 405.67 P/Sale (x) 0.17 0.36 Dividend Yield (%) 4.74% 2.31% Valuations At current market price of `63.25 stock is trading at 3.45x FY13E and 2.74x FY14E earnings, Which is low as compared to Gabriel India. Considering improved demand from clients and At current market decline in the interest outgo as well as lower effective tax rate is likely to boost the bottom- price of `63.25 stock line of the company. We initiate coverage with “Buy” recommendation with the DDM based is trading at 3.45x FY13E and 2.74x target price of `85.71, arriving at 4.68x FY13E and 3.71x FY14 earning for the levered firm. FY14E earnings, Dividend Discount Model Which is low as compared to Gabriel Gordon Growth Model India. Single stage DDM model FY12 Dividend Per Share 3.00 9 Keynote Capitals Research
  • 10. K E Y N O T E Assumptions CoE (r) Rfr 8.00% Rm 15.00% Beta 0.54 CoE 11.78% Gn 8% Target Price (`) 85.71 Upside 33.93% Valuations Table ROE to be in the range of 25% to 28% Particulars FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E EPS (`) 5.17 6.15 8.51 16.78 18.32 23.09 RoE (%) 13% 14% 18% 29% 26% 27% P/E (x) 12.23 10.28 7.44 3.77 3.45 2.74 Price/BV (x) 1.58 1.46 1.32 1.10 0.90 0.75 Risk and concern The key concerns are volatility in raw material prices such as steel, iron etc The concentration of business with few customers, may adversely affect the profitability of the Company. The profitability of the Company may further be affected by changes in Government Policies regarding excise duty and import duty. Keynote Capitals Research 10  
  • 11.                                                 K E Y N O T E  Financial Statement Profit and Loss A/C `Cr Net sale to grow at 12.6% in FY14 on Y/E, 31st March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E account of new Net Sales 829.4 988.0 1,289.3 1,556.9 1,699.6 1,913.6 launches and better % change 16.9% 19.1% 30.5% 20.8% 9.2% 12.6% domestic demand EBITDA 40.9 53.9 81.0 122.7 117.6 137.2 EBITDA margin (%) 4.9% 5.5% 6.3% 7.9% 6.9% 7.2% Other income 14.3 20.0 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.9 We expect effective Interest exp/ (inc) 5.5 12.1 9.1 11.2 7.0 5.0 tax rate to go down PBTD 49.8 61.8 74.2 113.1 111.7 133.1 from 21.9% in FY12 to Depreciation 16.9 23.1 26.3 27.2 28.9 30.5 11% in FY13. PBT 32.9 38.7 47.9 85.9 82.8 102.6 Taxes 12.2 14.1 13.9 18.8 9.5 10.3 PAT (Reported) 20.7 24.6 34.0 67.1 73.3 92.3 PAT margin to be in  Less: Extraordinary Income /Others 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 the range of 4% ‐ 4.8%  Adj PAT 20.4 24.5 32.8 66.3 73.3 92.3 in FY13E & FY14E   Adj PAT margin (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% Source: E- Keynote capitals Research Balance Sheet Statement `Cr Y/E, 31st March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Liabilities Equity share capital 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Total Res. & Surplus 157.3 172.6 195.0 248.2 300.5 361.9 Total loan fund was Total Shareholders’ funds 165.3 180.6 203.0 256.2 308.5 369.9 declined by 14.6% in Secured Loan 101.3 88.8 80.7 63.2 50.5 44.7 FY12 Unsecured Loan 0.0 34.9 5.0 10.0 8.0 5.0 Total loans 101.3 123.7 85.7 73.2 58.5 49.7 Deferred tax lia. 13.6 17.3 16.7 15.7 16.6 17.6 Other liability 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total liabilities 280.2 321.5 306.0 345.6 384.3 437.9 Assets Net fixed assets 199.8 254.2 254.5 245.0 262.7 282.3 Cash and Cash Capital WIP 40.6 8.5 8.6 11.2 10.9 11.6 equivalents increased Total non-current assets 240.3 262.8 263.1 256.2 273.6 293.9 by 51.6% in FY12 Inv - non current 10.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Current assets Inventories 28.8 30.4 36.7 49.1 52.5 61.2 Sundry debtors 91.5 128.2 143.0 176.0 189.5 200.3 Cash & cash equivalents 5.3 2.4 3.1 4.7 5.6 6.1 Loans and Advances 29.4 37.3 45.0 45.7 49.3 55.3 Total current assets 154.9 198.3 227.7 275.5 296.9 322.9 Total current liabilities 116.1 131.8 176.8 178.2 177.5 168.3 Total provisions 13.1 16.3 14.8 15.9 17.4 19.4 Net current assets 25.8 50.2 36.2 81.4 102.0 135.1 Other Asset 4.1 3.5 6.8 5.0 5.6 5.8 Total assets 280.2 321.5 306.0 345.6 384.3 437.9 Source: E- Keynote capitals Research 11 Keynote Capitals Research
  • 12. K E Y N O T E Cash Flow Statement `Cr Y/E, 31st March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Cash flow from operations PBT 32.9 38.7 47.9 85.9 82.8 102.6 Tax paid 12.2 14.1 13.9 18.8 9.5 10.3 Dep & amortization 16.9 23.1 26.3 27.2 28.9 30.5 Working capital changes 0.7 27.3 (14.7) 43.6 19.8 32.6 Others (0.3) (8.1) 2.1 (4.9) (21.6) (25.2) A-Net cash from operations 36.6 12.3 77.0 45.9 60.8 65.1 B-Net cash from investments 90.7 31.9 26.9 16.7 25.4 25.8 C-Net cash from financing 57.3 16.7 (49.5) (27.5) (34.6) (38.8) Net change in cash (A-B+C) 3.1 (2.9) 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.5 Cash at the end of the period 5.3 2.4 3.1 4.7 5.6 6.1 Source: E- Keynote capitals Research Key Ratios Y/E, 31st March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Growth Net sales (%) 16.9% 19.1% 30.5% 20.8% 9.2% 12.6% EBITDA (%) 24.1% 31.7% 50.2% 51.5% -4.1% 16.7% PAT adjusted (%) 3.6% 19.8% 34.1% 102.1% 10.5% 26.0% MSL is trading at 3.8x Valuations FY12 earnings, which is low as compared to EPS (`) 5.2 6.2 8.5 16.8 18.3 23.1 its historical PE P/E (x) 12.2 10.3 7.4 3.8 3.5 2.7 Price/BV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 6.9 4.1 2.6 2.6 2.2 P/Sales (x) 0.31 0.26 0.20 0.16 0.15 0.13 Profitability EBITDA margin (%) 4.9% 5.5% 6.3% 7.9% 6.9% 7.2% Adj PAT margin (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% Debt to equity to be in RoE (%) 13.0% 14.2% 17.7% 29.2% 26.0% 27.2% comfort zone RoCE (%) 9.5% 11.3% 20.3% 32.5% 27.8% 28.3% B/S ratios Inventory days 10.6 10.2 8.8 9.3 10.1 10.1 Creditor days 33.7 32.5 34.5 35.2 31.7 27.4 Debtors days 33.0 37.8 35.6 34.8 36.5 34.8 Debt/equity 0.61 0.68 0.42 0.29 0.19 0.13 Source: E- Keynote capitals Research Keynote Capitals Research 12  
  • 13.                                                 K E Y N O T E  KEYNOTE CAPITALS LTD. Member Stock Exchange, Mumbai (INB 010930556) National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (INB 230930539) Over the Counter Exchange of India Ltd. (INB 200930535) Central Depository Services Ltd. (IN-DP-CDSL-152-2001) The Ruby, 9th Floor Senapati Bapat Marg Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. T: +91-22-30266000, F: +91-22-30266088 www.keynotecapitals.com DISCLAIMER • This report has been prepared and issued by Keynote Capitals Limited, based solely on public information and sources believed to be reliable. • Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein, constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities and also for the purpose of trading activities. • Keynote Capitals Limited makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness or correctness of the information in this report. • Keynote Capitals and its affiliates and their respective officers, directors and employees may hold positions in any securities mentioned in this Report (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any securities or investments. • Keynote Capitals may also have proprietary trading positions in securities covered in this report or in related instruments. • An affiliate of Keynote Capitals Limited may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for the company under coverage. • If ‘Buy’, ‘Sell’, or ‘Hold’ recommendation is made in this Report, such recommendation or view or opinion expressed on investments in this Report is not intended to constitute investment advice and should not be intended or treated as a substitute for necessary review or validation or any professional advice. The views expressed in this Report are those of the analyst which are subject to change and do not represent to be an authority on the subject. Keynote Capitals may or may not subscribe to any and/ or all the views expressed herein. • The opinions presented herein are liable to change without any notice. • Though due care has been taken in the preparation of this report, Keynote Capitals limited or any of its directors, officers or employees shall be in any way be responsible for any loss arising from the use thereof. • Investors are advised to apply their judgment before acting on the contents of this report. • This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Keynote Capitals Limited. 13 Keynote Capitals Research