Investing for Physicians | 1st Quarter Market Review
1. Quarterly Market Review
Q1
First Quarter 2013
Advisory Services offered through Larson Financial Group, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through Larson Financial Securities, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.
2. Quarterly Market Review
First Quarter 2013
This report features world capital market performance Overview:
and a timeline of events for the last quarter. It begins with
a global overview, then features the returns of stock and Market Summary
bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
Timeline of Events
The report also illustrates the performance of globally World Asset Classes
diversified portfolios and features a topic of the quarter.
US Stocks
International Developed Stocks
Emerging Markets Stocks
Select Country Performance
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Commodities
Fixed Income
Global Diversification
Quarterly Topic: Betting against the House
4. Timeline of Events: Quarter in Review
First Quarter 2013
Data show US retail sales
increased 1.1% in
February, the largest rise
since September 2012.
FOMC minutes signal debate on Data show US
scaling back US central bank’s GDP rose 0.4%
Fiscal cliff – bond buying program. in Q4
Haruhiko Kuroda
US House of 2012, revised
named governor of
Representatives US Federal Reserve from prior
Euro zone’s Bank of Japan.
adopts US Senate’s announces it will estimate of
recession deepens
budget bill. continue purchasing 0.1% decrease.
as exports from Dow Jones closes at record
$40 billion of leading economies Cyprus reaches
high of 14,253, topping record
mortgage-backed suffer and Q4 GDP €10B rescue
set in October 2007.
securities and $45 falls 0.6%. deal with
billion of Treasury IMF, EU, and
World Bank cuts securities each month. ECB.
Italy’s election
2013 forecast for
ends in
global growth from
deadlocked
3% to 2.4%.
parliament.
MSCI All Country World Index
12/31/2012 03/29/2013
The graph illustrates the MSCI All Country World Index (net div.) daily returns over the quarter. Source: MSCI data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. The events highlighted are not intended to explain market
movements. The index is not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 4
7. International Developed Stocks
First Quarter 2013 Index Returns
International developed equities maintained strong Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%) US Currency Local Currency
performances, with all major asset classes posting
positive absolute numbers in US dollars for the quarter.
7.24
Small Cap
11.83
Consistent with the fourth quarter, the US dollar
appreciated relative to most major foreign 6.26
Growth
developed currencies. 10.65
Across the size and style spectra, small beat 4.70
Large Cap
8.98
large and growth outperformed value.
3.13
Value
7.31
World Market Capitalization—International Developed Period Returns (%) * Annualized
Asset Class 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years**
Large Cap 10.43 4.78 -0.75 9.95
Small Cap 10.87 7.80 2.05 13.14
Value 10.35 3.57 -1.16 10.28
40%
International
Growth 10.41 5.92 -0.39 9.53
Developed
Market
$14.4 trillion
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA
Growth). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap: Non-US developed market proxies are the respective developed country portions of the MSCI All Country World IMI ex USA Index. Proxies
for the UK, Canada, and Australia are the relevant subsets of the developed market proxy. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. 7
8. Emerging Markets Stocks
First Quarter 2013 Index Returns
Many emerging markets posted negative returns for the Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%) US Currency Local Currency
quarter. There was a significant size premium, with
small caps outperforming large caps by 5.8%. The
4.20
value premium was negative across all size segments. Small Cap
5.81
The US dollar appreciated vs. most emerging -0.88
Growth
markets currencies. 0.26
-1.62
Large Cap
-0.49
-2.38
Value
-1.28
World Market Capitalization—Emerging Markets Period Returns (%) * Annualized
Asset Class 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years**
12% Emerging
Large Cap
Small Cap
Value
1.96
9.20
-1.08
3.27
3.93
2.43
1.09
4.13
1.58
17.05
18.18
18.47
Markets
Growth 5.00 4.09 0.54 15.60
$4.3 trillion
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI
Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap: Emerging markets proxies are the respective emerging country portions of the MSCI All Country World IMI ex USA
Index. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2012, all rights reserved. 8
14. Betting against the House
First Quarter 2013
It’s New Year’s Day 2012. In addition to December 31, 2012, all 13 homebuilding firms Investors who insist on waiting for evidence
overdosing on televised college football, you’re listed on the New York Stock Exchange of healthy profits before investing are often
spending part of the holiday working on the family outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a wide frustrated to find that a firm’s stock price has
finances. Armed with a laptop and various online margin, with total returns ranging from 34.1% appreciated dramatically by the time the firm
financial tools, you’re on the hunt for appealing for NVR to 382.8% for Hovnanian Enterprises. begins to report cheery financial results. Shares
stock market opportunities. To prune the list of The Standard & Poor’s SuperComposite of Hovnanian Enterprises, for example, rose
candidates to a manageable size, you decide to Homebuilding Sub-Index rose 84.1% in 2012 580% between October 7, 2011, and December
focus on firms that are leaders in their respective compared to 13.4% for the S&P 500 Index. 31, 2012, even though the firm continued to
industries and exhibit above-average scores on report losses. Similarly, it is not unusual for a
various measures of financial strength. As you The point? For those seeking to outperform the firm’s stock price to decline long before signs
work your way through the alphabet, you come market through stock selection, underweighting of trouble become obvious.
to the ―P‖ stocks, and another candidate appears. the market’s biggest winners can be just as
It’s a prominent player in a major industry painful as overweighting the biggest losers. Many observers in recent years predicted that
(good), but operates in a notoriously cyclical Investors are often caught flat-footed by stocks a recovery in the housing industry would be
industry (not so good), is currently losing money that do much better or much worse than the broad agonizingly slow, and they were right. Many
(definitely not good), pays no dividend, and has a market, and the problem is not limited to investors in recent years have avoided housing
junk-bond credit rating of BB-minus. Next! You individuals. Not one of the 10 seasoned stocks as a consequence, and they’ve been
push the ―delete‖ key and move on. professionals participating in Barron’s annual wrong: Housing stocks have outperformed the
Roundtable stock-picking panel in early January broad US stock market by a healthy margin from
Congratulations. You just passed up 2012 mentioned homebuilding stocks or any the market low in March 2009 to the present day.
the best-performing stock in the entire housing-related firms.
S&P 500 Index for 2012. BOTTOM LINE: Markets have 101 ways to
The recent surge in housing shares also serves remind us of Nobel laureate Merton Miller’s
Shares of PulteGroup, a Michigan-based as a reminder that stock prices are forward- observation—diversification is the investor’s
homebuilder with a 60-year history, jumped looking and tend to rise or fall well in advance best friend.
187.8% last year amid strong performance of clear changes in company fundamentals.
for the entire industry. For the year ending
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results . Adapted from “Betting against the House” by Weston Wellington, Down to the Wire column on Dimensional’s
website, February 2013. This information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment
advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 14