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John Lory, Ray Massey and Pat Guinan
University of Missouri
 Are we doing our job?
 April through November
 USDA data –
▪ Reporters’ opinion of soil conditions allowing
equipment into the field
▪ Reported as “days per week”
▪ Over 30 years of data
▪ http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Missouri/
Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/
 Probability tool originally developed for
Missouri.
 Work to expand to IA, IL, and KS.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar
27
Apr
10
Apr
24
May
08
May
22
Jun
05
Jun
19
Jul
03
Jul
17
Jul
31
Aug
14
Aug
28
Sep
11
Sep
25
Oct
09
Oct
23
Nov
06
Nov
20
Daysperweek
Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
 Equipment Inputs to EstimateApplication
Time
 Capacity of spreader/tanker
 Application width
 Application travel speed
 Applicator discharge rate
 Travel time
 Infield travel time
 Road travel time
 Applicator load time
Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans
 Equipment Inputs to EstimateApplication
Time
 Capacity of spreader/tanker
 Application width
 Application travel speed
 Applicator discharge rate
 Travel time
 Infield travel time
 Road travel time
 Applicator load time
 4,800 Grow-Finish Operation
 Generates enough manure to provide N for 400 acres of corn.
 Application rate 175 lbs N/A (4,375 gal/A)
 Fields average 1 mile from barn
 LandApplication Equipment
 6000 gallon tanker
 15-foot swath injector
 Travel speeds:
▪ Road: 10 mph
▪ In field, not applying: 7 mph
▪ In field, applying: 3.4 mph (requires 450 gal/min discharge rate)
▪ Loading time: 10 minutes/load
 Application time estimate: 200 hours
 Application efficiency estimate: 0.36
 Scenario 1
 Northwest Missouri
 Apply in April
 Run tanker up to 12 hours per day, 6 days per week
 Need 200 hours
 Analysis
 Mean:
130 hours fieldwork in April
12 % probability of success
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
ProbablityofCompletion
Hours Available
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
ProbablityofCompletion
Hours Available
 Solution 1 (need 200 hrs):
 Expand application to May
(ApplyApril to June 2 (2 months))
 Mean:
305 hours fieldwork in April-May
87% probability of success
April-May
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
ProbablityofCompletion
Hours Available
 Solution 2:
 Increase tank size to 7200 gal.
 Get a nurse tank
(road time goes to zero)
 Need 130 hours
 Mean:
130 hours fieldwork in April
53% probability of success
April
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
ProbablityofCompletion
Hours Available
 Solution 3:
 Increase tank size to 7200 gal.
 Get a nurse tank
(road time goes to zero)
 ApplyApril to June 2 (2 months)
 Need 130 hours
 Mean:
305 hours fieldwork inApril plus May
April 1 – June 2
96% chance of success
April - May
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
ProbablityofCompletion
Hours Available
 Solution 4:
 Increase tank size to 7200 gal.
 Get a nurse tank
(road time goes to zero)
 Move 33% of application to fall
 Need 130 hours.
86 hours April
71 % chance of success
44 hours from Nov. 18 -30
80% chance of success in Nov.
April
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
ProbablityofCompletion
Hours Available
Nov. 18-30
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Field
Distance (-)
Swath
Width (+)
Tanker size
(+)
Road
Travel
Speed (+)
FieldTravel
Speed (+)
Hourstocover400acres
Base
20% change
Field distance: 1.0 to 0.8 miles Tanker size: 6000 to 7200 gal. Field travel speed: 7.0 to 8.4 mph
Swath width: 15 to 18 feet Road travel speed: 10 to 12 mph
 Expand to other states
 Integrate into nutrient management reporting software
 Quantitative approach for April - November
 Not covered by the Fieldwork database
 Factors to consider
 Soil temperature below 32oF (frozen soils)
 Snow cover
 Precipitation
 Saturated soils
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Fractionofdayssoilsare<32oFon
thatdayoftheyear
Albany South Farm Lamar
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
30 50 70 90 110
Lamar Novelty South Farm
Probabilityofsuccess
Days wanted
 Critical to integrate the
concept of risk into
nutrient management
decisions.
http://swine.missouri.edu/swine/PDFM.xls
Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans

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Integrating Probable Fieldwork Days into Nutrient Management Plans