William Hudnut; Joseph C. Canizaro Fellow for Public Policy at the Urban Land Institute in Washington, DC

1. Leonard Transportation Center
California State University, SB
Third Annual Regional Dialogue
“Winning Strategies for Southern California”
May 22, 2009
William H. Hudnut III
Senior Fellow Emeritus
The Urban Land Institute

2. Thesis: The probability of global
warming/climate change has serious land
use challenges:
• Planning
• Compact Development
• Infrastructure
• Transportation: TOD/DOT
• Housing
• Retail
• Sustainable Development
• Regional Thinking and Acting

3. Global Warming and
Energy Availability

4. Competing Demand for Energy
Petroleum Overview
¹ Petroleum products supplied used as an approximation for consumption.
² Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production.
Source: Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2005

6. AB 32 and SB 375

7. 1. Planning
Rockville Pike
Montgomery County
Maryland
“We are changing the paradigm from capacity to sustainability”
Royce Hansen, Director, Montgomery County Dept. of Parks and Planning

8. “Together, We Can”
--Mayor Doug Hutchinson, Ft. Collins, CO

9. Population Growth: Both a
Challenge and Opportunity
U.S. will add 110 million between 2010 and 2050
West and Southwest will lead U.S. growth
Many other countries will experience population
declines

12. Donuts and Cookies
as Public Policy

13. “America’s Future Lies in
Dead Malls”—Bill Fulton
Lakewood, CO
(Villa Italia Mall)
Belmar

14. Belmar

15. Belmar

16. Before…
Smyrna, Georgia--Before

17. …and After
Market Village—Smyrna, Georgia

18. 2. Well Designed Compact Development
Harbor Town, Memphis, TN

19. Don’t Be Afraid of Higher Densities
Arlington, VA

20. What is good density? It is not this!
A lot of people think of this when they think
of density. They think of ugly architecture,
crime and poverty.
But the problems typically associated with
density aren’t caused by density but by
poorly designed development.

21. Emphasize Infill: Reinforce
Investment in Established Places
ULI SC: “Enhance and
Revitalize existing
Communities.”

22. …As an Antidote to Sprawl

23. Reinvest

24. In 2001, Americans spent $214 billion on housing,
40% on remodeling, 60% on new construction.
In the next 10 to 20 years, those numbers will be 50-50
Source: Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies

25. The “RE” Century
Storm Cunningham, The Restoration Economy, 2002
• By 2012, restorative development will likely account
for OVER 50% of all expenditures in US and Europe,
representing “a gargantuan new category of business
opportunities in the 21st century,”

26. 3. Infrastructure

27. I-35W Bridge Collapse
Minneapolis
Aug., 2007

28. How are we doing – ASCE
America’s Infrastructure D
Roads: D Bridges: C
Transit: D+
Freight : C-
Aviation: D+
Drinking Water: D
National Power Grid: D
ASCE Infrastructure Report Card 2005

29. Federal Commitment Decreases
Infrastructure Spending as Percent of Federal Spending
12
Non-Defense Spending
10
8
%
6
4
Total Spending
2
0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

30. Fix It First
Ford Heights, Illinois

31. Build New

33. Create A National Infrastructure Bank

34. Raise taxes? US Gas Tax
Substantially Below European
Tax per gallon USD
Countries
Source: Energy Information Agency; February 4, 2008.

35. Tap the Private Sector
Privatization Increasing User Fees
Unlikely
24%
Likely
37% Unlikely
Indifferent
45% Likely 3%
73%
Indifferent
Increasing Taxes
19%
Likely Unlikely
62% 35%
Indifferent
3%
Sources: ULI survey of directors of planning for state departments of transportation

36. Charge the Users
Freeways are not really free

37. 4. Give Accessibility to Transit
High Priority

38. TOD--DOT
East Point, GA

39. Plano, Texas
Before and After

40. Reduce Dependence on the
Car

43. Light Rail
Commuter Rail
Heavy Rail
Buses
Express Buses and
Bus Rapid Transit

44. Bus Rapid Transit
Lane County Transit District
Eugene, OR

45. Provide Transportation Choices
Loveland, Colorado

46. Tale of Two Cities
• Atlanta
– population 2,959,950
– bike dealers 28
• Denver
– Population 1,980,140
– Bike dealers 149

47. Hiking, Biking, Roller
Blading Trails

48. Not anti-car, but pro-pedestrian

49. The Pedestrian Friendly
Environment

50. Walkable Urbanity

51. Interesting Walks

52. Tree Canopy

53. Buildings
Close to the
Sidewalks

54. Parks and Squares
• Town square photo

55. Indigenous
Architecture

56. Examples of Walkable
Developments

57. Bethesda Row

58. 5. Workforce Housing

59. Drive Until You Qualify
Moving farther saves
$5000/ mile
Portland -$2/day on
mortgage
Orange County –
est.$10,000
Decentralization Incentive

63. Majority Of Workers In All Commute Categories At
Least Somewhat Likely To Move Closer To Work If
There Were More Affordable Housing
57%
TOTAL VERY LIKELY/ 57%
LIKELY/SOMEWHAT 58%
64%
LIKELY 51%
14%
14%
Very Likely 15%
7%
24%
15%
18%
Likely 13%
17%
8%
28%
25%
Somewhat Likely 30%
39%
20% Total
<30 min
43%
43% 31-60 min
Not at all Likely 42% 61-90 min
36%
49% 91+ min
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

64. Mixed-Income
Communities

65. Affordable (Workforce) Housing
Irvine, CA

66. 6. Urban Retail

68. Bridge Street Town Centre, Huntsville, Alabama

69. Bethesda, MD

70. Valencia Town
Center---
Valencia, CA

72. 7. SUSTAINABILITY
“Meeting the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs.”
Source: The World Commission on Environment and
Development
**************************************
“Planning that takes into account
future needs in three areas:
environment, economy and social
equity.”
Source: Northeast Illinois Planning Commission,
“Building Sustainable Communities”

73. What is Sustainable Development?
• Compact – high net
density with amenity
• Diverse – mix of uses and
users
• Land Efficient –
conserves important
natural and cultural
features
• Vibrant – Richness of
Place
• Connected – multiple
modes of circulation,
linked open spaces

74. Unsustainable Land Use in USA
Large Lot Strip Commercial
Subdivisions

75. Create Green Infrastructure
Hammond, Indiana

77. The community green, bounded by the
dwellings it serves.

78. Portland, OR McCall Park

79. Roles of Green Infrastructure
• To shape or direct where growth will go
• To protect essential ecological processes
& systems
• To preserve working landscapes &
resource based industries
• To perform environmental work (managing
stormwater, recharging groundwater, reducing
the urban heat island, cleaning air & water)
Ed McMahon, ULI Senior Fellow

80. Green Building
The Plaza at PPL Center
Allentown, PA

81. 1st LEED Certified McDonald’s
Savannah, Georgia

82. Why Should Owners and Tenants
Care?
“Five years ago, nobody
knew about green
buildings. Now almost all
of our major tenants want
LEED space. At Hines we
specialize in Class A
space, and we’ve
reached the point where
clients don’t think it’s
Class A unless it’s
green.”
Jerry Lea - Hines
La Jolla Commons, CA – LEED Gold

83. “The Benefits of Building
Green”
• Conserves materials and resources such
as water and energy
• Results in a more efficient use of
resources – respect for the environment
• Minimizes waste
• Creates a healthy and comfortable setting
for inhabitants
• Causes positive publicity
• Is more sustainable than building
conventionally

84. Green (Clean) Energy
WW
Wind
i i
n n
d d
Solar
S
o
l
Biomass

85. 8. Thinking and Acting Metro-Wide

89. Regional Cooperation:
Denver Bond Issue
• In 2004, Fastrack Referendum
• $2 Billion Bond Approval
• 122 miles of light rail
• 57 new transit stops
• 7 Counties & 32 Municipalities

90. It All Requires Leadership

91. Crafting our Legacy:
What will the world we leave our children and
grandchildren look like?

92. Let’s work and hope for a happy
result!
The End

93. www.uli.org/bookstore
Number C-79