3. Pennsylvania State House Map
Source:
http://aws.redistricting.state.pa.us/Redistricting/Resou
rces/GISData/Districts/Legislative/House/2011-
Revised-Final/PDF/2011-Revised-Final-Plan-Map-
House.pdf
4. Pennsylvania State Senate Map
Source:
http://aws.redistricting.state.pa.us/Redistricting/Resources/GI
SData/Districts/Legislative/Senate/2011-Revised-
Final/PDF/2011-Revised-Final-Plan-Map-Senate.pdf
5. Running for Higher Office – Previous
Assumptions
Expected utility of winning a higher office - E(Uh)
E(Uh) = phBh – Ch
Expected utility of retaining the current, lower office -
E(Ul)
E(Ul) = plBl – Cl
Under this assumption, an ambitious politician will
attempt to move to higher office when:
E(Uh) = phBh – Ch >E(Ul) = plBl – Cl
What is problematic about this assumption?
6. Running for Higher Office – A Two-Stage
Decision Process
Maestas and colleagues argue that there is a stable
disposition, or function, that each legislator holds.
Stage 1
Progressive Ambition = f(E(UA)
= pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)
Where pgenis the long-run probability of winning office
Bmargis the expected gain from the target office
Cmargis the expected costs from running for the target office
M = personal motivations outside of the cost-benefit analysis
Those who enter Stage 2 have already crossed a
threshold level of ambition.
Stage 2 Pr(Run | Progressive Ambition > 0 = f(Pt, pgen,Ct,)
7. f(E(UA)
= pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)
pgen Bmarg Cmarg M
Estimation of
winning the party
nomination.
Assessment of
prestige and
effectiveness in U.S.
House career.
Family-cost index Desire to make
social or business
contacts
Estimation of
chances of winning
the general election.
Assessmentrelative
to current position in
state government.
Campaign-cost
index
Perception of district
partisan balance.
Signals from party.
9. Moving to the Second Stage
f(E(UA) = pgenBmarg – Cmarg + M)
If f(E(UA)) > 0, then they are scored as „1‟ (i.e. ambitious)
If f(E(UA)) ≤ 0, then then they are scored as „0‟ (i.e. not
ambitious)
Interviews
N = 597
F(E(UA))
1
0
N = 263
N = 334
10.
11.
12. Discussion
How do the authors connect their findings to political
responsiveness?
What are the implications for their findings?
What can they not determine from this study?
How might this study be extended?
13. Making It: The Electoral Game
Asking the right questions
What constituency to win over
How to become familiar to voters
Which leaders or groups to garner support
How to reach voters most effectively
Choosing the message
Effective, simple, repeatable brand
14. Messaging in Campaign Ads
Sen. Ron Johnson (R – WI)
“We‟re just a Wisconsin family worried about our country.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8MSP8yFSsY
Washington outsider -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzsIsBLJCCg
Had enough of these phony political commercials?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMExLKHUyg0
Sen. Jim Webb (D – VA)
Appealing to the other side.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEmjJIk8ga0
Rep. Morgan Griffith (R – VA)
Association - Obama Loves Rick Boucher -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7t8b42ZiTo
Policy - Cap and Trade -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxj_ko_Uz3g
15. Choosing the Wrong Message
Daniel Freilich (D – VT) for Senate
“I‟m on a Cow”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedde
d&v=4I9h2d8hw6g#at=24
Rep. Alan Grayson (D – FL)
Taliban Dan -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWdyf9eSkqQ
Paul R. Nelson (R – WI) for House
Ron Kind, The Wrong Kind -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx5LNXi5hwg
CarlyFiorina (R – CA) candidate for Senate
Demon Sheep -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlgU23QGksI
Way too far. http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-
live/video/mitt-romney-ad-1/n27669/
16. Fundraising
“I‟d rather wrestle a gorilla than ask anybody for fifty
cents.” Senator John Glenn (D - Ohio)
Sources of Congressional candidate funds:
1) Individual contributors
$2,400 per candidate
$45,600 per election
2) PACS
3) Party Committees
4) Personal Funds
Incumbents always do better. Why?
House incumbents outspent challengers six times over in 2010.
Senate incumbents outspent 11 times over in 2010.
2012 Spending in PA Races
http://www.opensecrets.org/states/cands.php?state=PA&cycle=
2012
17. Can you buy votes?
Not exactly.
Challengers
Spending is positively correlated with electoral success.
Incumbents
Spending negatively correlated with electoral success.
Why?
Spending matters less later in campaign races.
18. Campaign Techniques
Air Wars
Positive vs. Negative ads – what are the tradeoffs?
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) of 2002
Requires candidates personally appear with their advertisements.
Evolving mass media
“Word of mouth on steroids.”
The Ground War
“Pressing the flesh.”
Get out the vote (GOTV) drives
Parallel Campaigns
Outside players – Freedom Watch – “Dina Titus must be from
TaxUs” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5O7rwAj6G4
Citizens United v. FEC - Corporate spending
http://www.oyez.org/cases/2000-2009/2008/2008_08_205
Super PACs