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Climate Change and the Transportation Sector
Midwest Transportation Air Quality Summit
October 28, 2009
Lewison Lem
Principal Consultant
Center for Climate Strategies
and Jack Faucett Associates
Inventories Show Transportation as Sector
accounting for the Second Largest Amount of
GHG Emissions




  Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004




                                                                             Center for Climate Strategies
                                                                             (www.climatestrategies.us)                 2
The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States




                                    The
                                    transportation
                                    sector (red)
                                    produces 28% of
                                    GHG emissions in
                                    the United States


                            Center for Climate Strategies
                            (www.climatestrategies.us)      3
Selected Midwest States (2003) Transport
and Total GHG Emissions (MMtCO2e)
State                2003      2003                 2003
                   Transport   Total              Transport
                                                     % of
                                                    Total
Illinois             65.5      274.9                  23.8%
Indiana              47.2      269.0                  17.5%
Iowa                 19.4      116.7                  16.6%
Michigan             55.7      211.4                  26.3%
Minnesota            34.8      124.1                  28.0%
Ohio                 69.7      300.7                  23.2%
Wisconsin            29.6      123.7                  23.9%


7 State Subtotal     321.9     1420.5                 22.7%

                                 Center for Climate Strategies
                                 (www.climatestrategies.us)      4
Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions
Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003
State                                  Transport                  Total
            Transport %    Total %    Annual Rate                Annual
              Increase    Increase     % Increase                Rate %
                                                                Increase
Illinois       18.4%       15.8%            1.4%                     1.2%
Indiana        14.0%       18.7%            1.1%                     1.4%
Iowa           16.9%       15.0%            1.3%                     1.2%
Michigan       13.7%        4.2%            1.1%                     0.3%
Minnesota      43.2%       20.0%            3.3%                     1.5%

Ohio           21.9%       10.4%            1.7%                     0.8%
Wisconsin      19.4%       15.4%            1.5%                     1.2%


7 State        19.8%       13.5%            1.5%                     1.0%
Subtotal
                                     Center for Climate Strategies
                                     (www.climatestrategies.us)             5
Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG
Emissions by Mode of Travel




                             Center for Climate Strategies
                             (www.climatestrategies.us)      6
United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast
of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020
                        4,500

                        4,000

                        3,500
Annual VMT (billions)




                        3,000

                        2,500                                              Heavy Duty Trucks
                                                                           Medium Duty Trucks
                        2,000                                              Light Trucks
                                                                           Automobiles
                        1,500

                        1,000

                         500

                           0
                                2005   2010   2015               2020

                                                     Center for Climate Strategies
                                                     (www.climatestrategies.us)                7
United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation
Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020

             35


             30                                                        Other

                                                                       Marine
             25
                                                                       Bunker Fuel
                                                                       Ethanol (E85)
Quadrillion Btus




             20

                                                                       Jet Fuel
             15
                                                                       Diesel
             10
                                                                       Gasoline
                   5


                   0
                       2005   2010   2015                     2020

                                       Center for Climate Strategies
                                       (www.climatestrategies.us)                    8
US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV
Fleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFE
                                              40
Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe)




                                              35
                                                                                           New LDV MPG with
                                                                                           EISA 2007 CAFE
                                              30                                           Total LDV Fleet MPG
                                                                                           with EISA 2007 CAFE

                                              25



                                              20



                                              15
                                               2005   2010   2015   2020            2025

                                                                     Center for Climate Strategies
                                                                     (www.climatestrategies.us)                  9
US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet
Fuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE
                                                40
  Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe)                                                         New LDV
                                                                                                      MPG with
                                                35                                                    Obama 2009
                                                                                                      CAFÉ

                                                                                                      New LDV
                                                30                                                    MPG with
                                                                                                      EISA 2007
                                                                                                      CAFE
                                                25                                                    Total LDV
                                                                                                      Fleet MPG
                                                                                                      with Obama
                                                20                                                    2009 CAFE

                                                                                                 Total LDV
                                                                                                 Fleet MPG
                                                15                                               with EISA
                                                 2005   2010   2015       2020              2025 2007 CAFE

                                                                      Center for Climate Strategies
                                                                      (www.climatestrategies.us)                   10
Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG
Emissions and Fuel Economy Standards




 (http://www.theicct.org/documents/ICCT_GlobalStandards_2007.pdf)
                                                            Center for Climate Strategies
                                                            (www.climatestrategies.us)      11
US Potential for GHG Emissions
                                        Reductions from Vehicle Purchase Incentives
                                                                                      0.0%




                                        2,400
US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e)




                                        2,200                                                    -1.8% in 2020
                                                                                                 -6.3% in 2020
                                        2,000
                                                                                    EISA 2007 CAFE

                                        1,800
                                                                                    Obama 2009 CAFE
                                        1,600
                                                                                    Obama 2009 CAFE +
                                        1,400                                       Incentives


                                        1,200

                                        1,000                                         -4000.0%




                                            2005     2010      2015               2020


                                                                      Center for Climate Strategies
                                                                      (www.climatestrategies.us)                 12
Vehicle Purchase Incentives:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

  1,792 Billion Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings
  22.71 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions

  $3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs
  $7.6 B Decrease in Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Costs
  $4.5 B Decrease in Net Costs
  $195 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness

(Year 2007 dollars)
                               Center for Climate Strategies
                               (www.climatestrategies.us)      13
US Potential for GHG Emissions
      Reductions from Advanced Biofuels
                                                   US On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions           0.0%




                                        2,400
US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e)




                                        2,200                                                     -1.8%
                                                                                                 -6.7%
                                        2,000
                                                                                                EISA 2007 CAFE

                                        1,800
                                                                                                Obama 2009 CAFE

                                        1,600                                                   Obama 2009 CAFE +
                                                                                                Renewable Fuels
                                        1,400


                                        1,200


                                        1,000                                                    -4000.0%




                                            2005       2010            2015                  2020

                                                                          Center for Climate Strategies
                                                                          (www.climatestrategies.us)              14
Advanced Biofuels:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

  600 Million Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings
  1.49 Billion Gallons Added Ethanol Consumption
  10.45 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions



(Year 2007 dollars)




                                 Center for Climate Strategies
                                 (www.climatestrategies.us)      15
Truck Anti-Idling:
      Anti-
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

  4 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings
  9.22 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions

  $1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs
  $2.07 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs
  $0. 77 B Decrease in Net Costs
  $83 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness

(Year 2007 dollars)
                           Center for Climate Strategies
                           (www.climatestrategies.us)      16
Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

  10.28 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings
  16.20 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions

  $1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs
  $4.4 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs
  $3.2 B Decrease in Net Costs
  $196 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness

(Year 2007 dollars)
                               Center for Climate Strategies
                               (www.climatestrategies.us)      17
“Double” Transit Ridership:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

   328 Million Gallons in Auto Gasoline Savings
   3.8 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions

   Capital and O&M Costs not yet estimated
   $822 M Decrease in Auto Gasoline Fuel Costs

 (Year 2007 dollars)



                            Center for Climate Strategies
                            (www.climatestrategies.us)      18
Global Comparisons Show Gradient
of Per Capita Transportation Energy
Use in Urban Areas




                         Center for Climate Strategies
                         (www.climatestrategies.us)      19
UK
transport
CO2
emissions
Intensity
Map, 2005

            Center for Climate Strategies
            (www.climatestrategies.us)      20
London Metro Transport CO2
emissions intensity, 2005




                Center for Climate Strategies
                (www.climatestrategies.us)      21
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us)      22
Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region:
Atlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showed
35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites.




                                      Center for Climate Strategies
                                      (www.climatestrategies.us)      23
For Further Information:
 www.climatestrategies.us




 http://www.jfaucett.com/



 LemCCS@gmail.com

                      Center for Climate Strategies
                      (www.climatestrategies.us)      24

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Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09

  • 1. Climate Change and the Transportation Sector Midwest Transportation Air Quality Summit October 28, 2009 Lewison Lem Principal Consultant Center for Climate Strategies and Jack Faucett Associates
  • 2. Inventories Show Transportation as Sector accounting for the Second Largest Amount of GHG Emissions Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 2
  • 3. The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States The transportation sector (red) produces 28% of GHG emissions in the United States Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 3
  • 4. Selected Midwest States (2003) Transport and Total GHG Emissions (MMtCO2e) State 2003 2003 2003 Transport Total Transport % of Total Illinois 65.5 274.9 23.8% Indiana 47.2 269.0 17.5% Iowa 19.4 116.7 16.6% Michigan 55.7 211.4 26.3% Minnesota 34.8 124.1 28.0% Ohio 69.7 300.7 23.2% Wisconsin 29.6 123.7 23.9% 7 State Subtotal 321.9 1420.5 22.7% Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 4
  • 5. Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003 State Transport Total Transport % Total % Annual Rate Annual Increase Increase % Increase Rate % Increase Illinois 18.4% 15.8% 1.4% 1.2% Indiana 14.0% 18.7% 1.1% 1.4% Iowa 16.9% 15.0% 1.3% 1.2% Michigan 13.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% Minnesota 43.2% 20.0% 3.3% 1.5% Ohio 21.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.8% Wisconsin 19.4% 15.4% 1.5% 1.2% 7 State 19.8% 13.5% 1.5% 1.0% Subtotal Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 5
  • 6. Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG Emissions by Mode of Travel Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 6
  • 7. United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020 4,500 4,000 3,500 Annual VMT (billions) 3,000 2,500 Heavy Duty Trucks Medium Duty Trucks 2,000 Light Trucks Automobiles 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 7
  • 8. United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020 35 30 Other Marine 25 Bunker Fuel Ethanol (E85) Quadrillion Btus 20 Jet Fuel 15 Diesel 10 Gasoline 5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 8
  • 9. US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFE 40 Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe) 35 New LDV MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE 30 Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE 25 20 15 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 9
  • 10. US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE 40 Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe) New LDV MPG with 35 Obama 2009 CAFÉ New LDV 30 MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE 25 Total LDV Fleet MPG with Obama 20 2009 CAFE Total LDV Fleet MPG 15 with EISA 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2007 CAFE Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 10
  • 11. Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG Emissions and Fuel Economy Standards (http://www.theicct.org/documents/ICCT_GlobalStandards_2007.pdf) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 11
  • 12. US Potential for GHG Emissions Reductions from Vehicle Purchase Incentives 0.0% 2,400 US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e) 2,200 -1.8% in 2020 -6.3% in 2020 2,000 EISA 2007 CAFE 1,800 Obama 2009 CAFE 1,600 Obama 2009 CAFE + 1,400 Incentives 1,200 1,000 -4000.0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 12
  • 13. Vehicle Purchase Incentives: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 1,792 Billion Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings 22.71 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions $3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs $7.6 B Decrease in Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Costs $4.5 B Decrease in Net Costs $195 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 13
  • 14. US Potential for GHG Emissions Reductions from Advanced Biofuels US On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0.0% 2,400 US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e) 2,200 -1.8% -6.7% 2,000 EISA 2007 CAFE 1,800 Obama 2009 CAFE 1,600 Obama 2009 CAFE + Renewable Fuels 1,400 1,200 1,000 -4000.0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 14
  • 15. Advanced Biofuels: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 600 Million Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings 1.49 Billion Gallons Added Ethanol Consumption 10.45 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 15
  • 16. Truck Anti-Idling: Anti- 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 4 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings 9.22 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions $1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs $2.07 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs $0. 77 B Decrease in Net Costs $83 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 16
  • 17. Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 10.28 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings 16.20 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions $1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs $4.4 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs $3.2 B Decrease in Net Costs $196 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 17
  • 18. “Double” Transit Ridership: 13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates 328 Million Gallons in Auto Gasoline Savings 3.8 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions Capital and O&M Costs not yet estimated $822 M Decrease in Auto Gasoline Fuel Costs (Year 2007 dollars) Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 18
  • 19. Global Comparisons Show Gradient of Per Capita Transportation Energy Use in Urban Areas Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 19
  • 20. UK transport CO2 emissions Intensity Map, 2005 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 20
  • 21. London Metro Transport CO2 emissions intensity, 2005 Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 21
  • 22. Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 22
  • 23. Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region: Atlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showed 35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites. Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 23
  • 24. For Further Information: www.climatestrategies.us http://www.jfaucett.com/ LemCCS@gmail.com Center for Climate Strategies (www.climatestrategies.us) 24