ACV des véhicules électriques et thermiques aux US - MIT
Ladco Climate And Transport Lem Presentation Final 10 23 09
1. Climate Change and the Transportation Sector
Midwest Transportation Air Quality Summit
October 28, 2009
Lewison Lem
Principal Consultant
Center for Climate Strategies
and Jack Faucett Associates
2. Inventories Show Transportation as Sector
accounting for the Second Largest Amount of
GHG Emissions
Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 2
3. The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States
The
transportation
sector (red)
produces 28% of
GHG emissions in
the United States
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 3
4. Selected Midwest States (2003) Transport
and Total GHG Emissions (MMtCO2e)
State 2003 2003 2003
Transport Total Transport
% of
Total
Illinois 65.5 274.9 23.8%
Indiana 47.2 269.0 17.5%
Iowa 19.4 116.7 16.6%
Michigan 55.7 211.4 26.3%
Minnesota 34.8 124.1 28.0%
Ohio 69.7 300.7 23.2%
Wisconsin 29.6 123.7 23.9%
7 State Subtotal 321.9 1420.5 22.7%
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 4
5. Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions
Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003
State Transport Total
Transport % Total % Annual Rate Annual
Increase Increase % Increase Rate %
Increase
Illinois 18.4% 15.8% 1.4% 1.2%
Indiana 14.0% 18.7% 1.1% 1.4%
Iowa 16.9% 15.0% 1.3% 1.2%
Michigan 13.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Minnesota 43.2% 20.0% 3.3% 1.5%
Ohio 21.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.8%
Wisconsin 19.4% 15.4% 1.5% 1.2%
7 State 19.8% 13.5% 1.5% 1.0%
Subtotal
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 5
6. Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG
Emissions by Mode of Travel
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 6
7. United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast
of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020
4,500
4,000
3,500
Annual VMT (billions)
3,000
2,500 Heavy Duty Trucks
Medium Duty Trucks
2,000 Light Trucks
Automobiles
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005 2010 2015 2020
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 7
8. United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation
Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020
35
30 Other
Marine
25
Bunker Fuel
Ethanol (E85)
Quadrillion Btus
20
Jet Fuel
15
Diesel
10
Gasoline
5
0
2005 2010 2015 2020
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 8
9. US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV
Fleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFE
40
Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe)
35
New LDV MPG with
EISA 2007 CAFE
30 Total LDV Fleet MPG
with EISA 2007 CAFE
25
20
15
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 9
10. US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet
Fuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE
40
Miles per Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (MPGe) New LDV
MPG with
35 Obama 2009
CAFÉ
New LDV
30 MPG with
EISA 2007
CAFE
25 Total LDV
Fleet MPG
with Obama
20 2009 CAFE
Total LDV
Fleet MPG
15 with EISA
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2007 CAFE
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 10
11. Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG
Emissions and Fuel Economy Standards
(http://www.theicct.org/documents/ICCT_GlobalStandards_2007.pdf)
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 11
12. US Potential for GHG Emissions
Reductions from Vehicle Purchase Incentives
0.0%
2,400
US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e)
2,200 -1.8% in 2020
-6.3% in 2020
2,000
EISA 2007 CAFE
1,800
Obama 2009 CAFE
1,600
Obama 2009 CAFE +
1,400 Incentives
1,200
1,000 -4000.0%
2005 2010 2015 2020
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 12
13. Vehicle Purchase Incentives:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
1,792 Billion Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings
22.71 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
$3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs
$7.6 B Decrease in Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Costs
$4.5 B Decrease in Net Costs
$195 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 13
14. US Potential for GHG Emissions
Reductions from Advanced Biofuels
US On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0.0%
2,400
US Full Fuel Cycle Emissions (MMCO2e)
2,200 -1.8%
-6.7%
2,000
EISA 2007 CAFE
1,800
Obama 2009 CAFE
1,600 Obama 2009 CAFE +
Renewable Fuels
1,400
1,200
1,000 -4000.0%
2005 2010 2015 2020
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 14
15. Advanced Biofuels:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
600 Million Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings
1.49 Billion Gallons Added Ethanol Consumption
10.45 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 15
16. Truck Anti-Idling:
Anti-
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
4 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings
9.22 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
$1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs
$2.07 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs
$0. 77 B Decrease in Net Costs
$83 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 16
17. Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
10.28 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings
16.20 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
$1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs
$4.4 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs
$3.2 B Decrease in Net Costs
$196 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 17
18. “Double” Transit Ridership:
13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
328 Million Gallons in Auto Gasoline Savings
3.8 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
Capital and O&M Costs not yet estimated
$822 M Decrease in Auto Gasoline Fuel Costs
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 18
19. Global Comparisons Show Gradient
of Per Capita Transportation Energy
Use in Urban Areas
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 19
23. Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region:
Atlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showed
35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites.
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 23
24. For Further Information:
www.climatestrategies.us
http://www.jfaucett.com/
LemCCS@gmail.com
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 24