4% rule outdated

A practical method for advisers to measure exposure to sequence risk is through evaluation of the current probability of failure rate (which I've later renames as iteration failure rate to reflect measurement of the Monte Carlo simulation rather than the plan itself - two different things). This paper lead to a deeper investigation of failure rates thus leading to two subsequent papers discovering the three-dimensional nature of simulations over various time periods and allocations, as well as application of longevity to the simulation modeling.

Économie & finance

“4% rule” only
relevant here
(early age 60’s)

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Annual stock market returns are unpredictable, but “up” years have occurred much more frequently than “down” years in the US. That may be reassuring to investors, especially if they find market downturns unsettling. The US stock market posted positive returns in 75% of thecalendar years from 1926 through 2021. • The market gained an annualized average of 10.2% during this period. Yet nearly two-thirds of yearly observations were at least 10 percentage points above or below the average. • Another noteworthy trend: More than two-thirds of the down years were followed by up years. The most recent example: a 5.0% loss in 2018 followed by a 30.4% gain in 2019.

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This first appeared in blog post that describes the graphs in more details https://blog.betterfinancialeducation.com/sustainable-retirement/what-are-the-three-paradigms-of-retirement-planning/ Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and longevity percentile statistics along with consumer spending trend line of “Real People” (which is not based here on spending percentile statistics, but on research averages). Starting balance $500,000 with $36,000 Social Security. Two simple graphs by age answer many retiree questions about potential future spending and balances. Creates a whole different discussion. Also illustrates why age 95 is a poor reference for planning since it doesn’t plan or consider aging into future ages from the beginning of retirement.

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Have you ever wondered who is buying if so many people are selling? The notion that sellers can outnumber buyers on down days doesn’t make sense. What the newscasters should say, of course, is that prices adjusted lower because would-be buyers weren’t prepared to pay the former price. What happens in such a case is either the would-be sellers sit on their shares or prices quickly adjust to the point where supply and demand come into balance and transactions occur at a price that both buyers and sellers find mutually beneficial. Economists refer to this as equilibrium.

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A mistake many inexperienced sailors make is not having a plan at all. They embark without a clear sense of their destination. And once they do decide, they often find themselves lost at sea in the wrong boat with inadequate provisions. Destination, contingencies when trouble comes up, course corrections, bad weather and more can happen on the journey. How do you properly prepare for sailing is much the same as investing.

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How many times can you use a source of money in your retirement plan? Turns out, just once, unless you know ahead of time WHEN something is going to happen, or if something was NOT going to happen. Since we don't know either, we need to plan on what resources may solve which issues we have in retirement. That plan should be documented in some fashion, otherwise our minds begin to allocate limited resources to everything - and that's when life happens. This will be discussed in detail on Better Financial Education's blog on the 4th of Oct 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Jc .

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This paper essentially demonstrates to academics and the profession that the current method of computing retirement income essentially arrives at a single solution applicable only to today; it does not model the future as currently interpreted. Our paper contrasts the difference between a calculation and a "multi-cast" simulation model. Our research summary paper is published in the Journal of Financial Planning, Nov 2016. A link to the paper is available here "Combining Stochastic Simulations and Actuarial Withdrawals into One Model." ( http://bit.ly/2eLBUq9 ) Our working paper documenting our research project won the CFP® Board Best Research Paper Award at the 2016 Academy of Financial Services ( http://academyfinancial.org/ ) annual conference through an academic panel using a blind review process. "Certainty of Lifestyle: Contrasting a Simulation Over a Fixed Period versus Multiple Period Models" ( http://bit.ly/2dWtuNz ) In early Nov 2016, two blogs will post going into more insights from the research: Just where does the fear of outliving our money come from? Part I with link to Part II. ( http://wp.me/p2Oizj-H2 )

Afs 2016-certainty of lifestyle shared

Investing makes it possible for many of us to achieve important lifetime goals, such as retirement. That’s why we employ an investment approach based on almost nine decades of data, analysis and research, insights from behavioral finance and close relationships with leading academics. There are four key concepts which play a vital role in the construction and management of our portfolios. Together, they add up to a distinctive long-term, approach we call Asset Class, or evidence-based, Investing

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There are a number of different methods of calculating investment return, depending on what you’re trying to measure. Perhaps the most basic is total return, which is simply an investment’s ending balance expressed as a percent of its beginning balance. Total return includes capital appreciation and income components; it assumes all income distributions are reinvested. To annualize total return, you’ll need to calculate the compound annual return, which generally requires using a financial calculator. It’s important to keep in mind that you need a greater percentage gain after a losing year in order to break even on your investment. More discussion of this when blog posts 22 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hk

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The article discusses an alternative approach to experiencing the costs of index reconstitution, called “Asset Classes,” which allow the fund manager broader leeway as to when to buy or sell, along with a broader range of holdings. This discussion begins in the section called “Decision Two: Indexing or Asset Class Investing?” The Asset Class approach, also referred to by others as "Factor Investing," is based on what has become to be called “Evidence Based Investing” due to roots discussed in the linked "Factor Investing" article, that come from academic (peer reviewed and repeatable results) foundation that continues to this day. My blog post discussing this article is scheduled to post 8 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hh

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This brief slideshow discusses some elements necessary to recognize that our emotions and reactions to investing and markets often hurt results. Discipline and a focus on what you can control are important to success. There is an investing approach that is based on discipline and evidence from research in both the finance and behavioral finance sciences. Scheduled to post to Better Financial Education blog 11 Jan 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-vH

Investor discipline

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