Liquid Investments-Investing into mankind's primal need
1. Investing Into Mankind’s Primal Need
Diversifying Into Agriculture to Safeguard and Build Wealth
E/W: Info@liquid-investments.com | www.liquid-investments.com
UK OFFICE: 9th Floor, 1 Knightsbridge Green, London, SW1X 7QA
BRAZIL OFFICE: Av Santos Dumont 2828, Sala 1501, Aldeota, Fortaleza, 60150 - 162
UK+44 (0) 20 7084 7421 | USA +1 (347) 647 0127 | BRAZIL +55 (85) 3224 6659
2. About Liquid Investments
Founded in 2006
Alternative Investment specialists in
Emerging Markets
Focus: Helping clients to diversify
away from the uncertain financial
markets in the ‘West’ and into
Agriculture Commodities in Brazil
Brazil
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3. Experienced Management
A Senior Management Team comprising Investment
Professionals with long standing Markets Experience
Global work experience – Europe, CIS, M-East, Far-East
raising several Hundred Million dollars
Experience: Deutsche Bank, Santander, Arthur Andersen,
Aon, Spectron Group. In Banking, Investments, HNW
Advisory, Tax Advisory, Commodities Trading
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4. Know Your Client
We ask our clients what they
want, and marry that to what
they NEED
We believe that it is ESSENTIAL that
clients identify and plan for their future
as there are some very clear threats to
their plans that must be understood and
navigated
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5. Retirement - lifestyle, retirement date, annuity
Education - children or grandchildren’s
Aspirations – travel, beach house, new car etc
Legacy or inheritance
Plan for medical costs that may be encountered in later
life
What are YOUR Goals?
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6. A BASIC retirement for an average American couple
costs $1 million
Average medical costs for a couple in the US - $220,000
Education costs – per child up to $520,000 until age 18
and a “normal" 4 year degree costs $100,000 (Harvard
costs $260,000)
Taking a holiday once a year for 15 years in retirement
mounts up and costs on average $150,000
Monetize YOUR Goals
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7. Goals – Paying For It
Average US couple will need $1 million for retirement
Assuming a conservative 4-5% annual draw-down (pre-
inflation, emergencies)
Investing in a tax-free muni bond portfolio, drawing down
$40,000 annually…
There is a 72% chance nest egg will be exhausted before you
die
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8. Fertility rates are slowing, longevity is increasing
Between 2013 and 2050 the number of people globally 65 and older
will TRIPLE to 1.5 billion, one-sixth of the world’s population
Inspite of people living longer, average retirement age throughout the
20th Century remained static at 64
Apart from (adverse) demographics, there are high levels of debt in
developed economies, slowing rates of growth in emerging
markets…
The Problems – Big Picture
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9. Old Age Dependency Ratio
2.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.9
5.6
6.3
6.8
7.9
8.9
8.9
9.8
9.9
11.2
12.5
1.2
1.5
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.3
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.2
1.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.2
4.5
6.1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Japan
Spain
Denmark
Switzerland
United Kingdom
OECD
Netherlands
Czech Republic
Australia
Canada
United States
Russian Federation
Ireland
Korea
Chile
China
Mexico
Brazil
Indonesia
Turkey
India
South Africa
Source: OECD (2011)
Old-Age Support Ratio: Number of People of Working Age (20-64) Per Person of Pension Age (65+)
2008
2050
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10. Stay Healthy
A recent estimate* states
$220,000 will be spent by the
average 65-year old couple for
healthcare expenses
throughout retirement
The Society of Actuaries
estimate a couple retiring at 55
and living to 85 will spend
$744,800 on healthcare
*Fidelity Investments
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11. David Lloyd George (Chancellor of the
Exchequer, 1908-15)
He was the driver for a well intentioned
social experiment which many of us are
paying for today – state funded pensions.
While his original system was
workable, our modern day system has not
adapted and simply is not affordable
No Longer Fit For Purpose
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12. Work Hard
The US government estimates that middle-income parents of infants born today
will spend $242,000 to raise their child to the age of 18…but this excludes college
fees, which can be up to an additional $520,000…before university fees are
added, a further $100,000-260,000 = up to $1 million per child
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13. Adding Up The Cost
Retirement Children Extra
$1 million – Pension $242,000 – Living Expenses $150,000 - Holidays
$220,000 – Medical
Expenses
$520,000 + $260,000
College + University
$1.37 million $1.02 million $150,000
= $2.54 million
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14. Investment Returns Set to Slide
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
World since
1950
World since
1980
World USA Japan UK Europe Emerging
markets
Historical high returns Prospective lower returns
Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013
Equities Bonds
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16. (The Need For) Diversification
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is used by all
fundamentally driven investors
A risk management process whereby different types
of investments are blended
Result – A collective performance generating higher
returns with lower risk than an individual investment
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19. Liquid Investment Theory (LIT)
Provides additional layers of diversification
Asset Class: a finite resource
Commodities: not correlated with other assets
Currency: independent
Products:
agricultural, consumer, industrial, pharmaceutical
sectors
Geopolitics: 5th largest global economy by
2015, stable democracy
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20. Is there more primal urge for
humans than to SURVIVE?
They have to feed
themselves and their families!
Investment Focus on Agriculture
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21. Asset class generating uncorrelated returns
compared to other investments
Value to rise due to a widening supply-demand
imbalance
Why Agriculture?
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22. Farmland World-Wide Is Disappearing
UN estimate 12 million ha. being
lost on annual basis worldwide
Equivalent to all farmland in
California disappearing every
3-years
The loss is permanent and due
to deforestation, chemical
usage, livestock overgrazing and
the impact of global warming
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23. Its Getting Crowded
1960 2011
World 52.58 70.54
US 69.77 75.04
Brazil 54.69 73.35
China 43.47 75.04
India 41.38 65.96
Source: IMF 2012
7.2 billion people in 2013 to
10 billion in 2050
Protein rich diets throughout
emerging markets
Life expectancy is rising
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Life Expectancy (years)
24. Population Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1950 1980 2013 2050 2100
Billion
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
(2013)
World Population, 1950-2100
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Northern America
Oceania
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25. 70% expansion in global food
production will be required (FAO)
Forecasted 60% real increase
in food pricing
Other factors driving price
increases include rising costs of
fertilizers and energy, the impact
of climate change and the rising
biofuel demand
A Primal Need
99.6
72.6
63.0
71.9
62.1
70.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
(%)
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Agricultural Land Price Appreciation in
Brazil, 2010-2013
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26. Illustrious Investors…
“… get a Lamborghini dealership in
Oklahoma or in Nebraska because
farmers are going to be driving the
Lamborghinis” Jim Rogers
Other investors George Soros, key
pension institutions such as TIAA-
CREF, firms like BlackRock, Morgan
Stanley and large and influential
sovereign wealth funds such as the
China Investment Corporation and
Temasek (Singapore)
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27. Recent Farmland Purchases in Brazil
Investor Origin Area, ha. Use of Farmland
Cresud Argentina 175,000 Cattle, Crops, Sugarcane
El Tejar Argentina 220,000 Cereals, Oilseeds
Chongqing Grain Group China 200,000 Soybean
Pengxin Group China 200,000 Cotton, Soybean
Louis Dreyfus France 250,000 Sugarcane
Aquila Germany 250,000 Cattle, Sugar
Shree Renuka Sugars India 133,000 Sugarcane
Adecoagro US 165,000
Cattle, Coffee, Grains,
Soybean, Sugarcane
TIAA-CREF Retirement
Equity Fund
US 424,000 Soybean, Sugarcane
Tiba Agro US 320,000 n/a
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28. Best of the BRICs
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More to offer than guns and oil unlike RUSSIA
No ethnic/religious tensions or hostile neighbors unlike INDIA
A democracy unlike CHINA
BRAZIL - Largest reserves of freshwater globally, 329 million ha. of rich
arable land and the largest tropical forests responsible for generating
20% of the world’s oxygen, set to be the worlds number one producer of
food by 2020.
29. Why Brazil (1)
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40
35
28
25
24
18
16
16
14
14
8
6
3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Orange Juice
Coffee
Oranges
Soybean…
Ethanol
Sugar
Cattle
Poultry
Beef&Veal
Iron Ore
Bauxite
Cotton
Milk
Crude Oil
Source: Santander
% of World Production From Brazil
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30. Why Brazil (2)
6th largest global
economy, 5th largest by
2015
5th largest consumer
market by 2020
4th largest global
recipient of FDI in 2012
FX reserves equivalent to
the rest of the continent
combined
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23
26
27
40
44
47
49
54
59
63
65
73
120
147
0 50 100 150 200
Belgium
Luxembourg
Chile
India
Ireland
Russia
Canada
Australia
Singapore
France
UK
Brazil
Hong Kong
China
USA
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
US$Billion
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Global FDI Ranking, 2012
33. 2 reasons it is of particular interest to us:
1. All parts can be processes
2. Current supply-demand imbalance
Fastest growing markets:
Coconut Water
Activated Carbon
Coconut Oil
Biofuels
The Humble Coconut
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36. Global Organic Food &
Beverage market size
forecast at $105 billion in
2015, a doubling in 5 years
Organics already account
for 4% of total US food
sales and forecast to grow
by 14% between 2013-18
The Organic Potential
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37. Coconut Plantation – Key Financials
Return on Investments between 11-
40%
Projected IRR to yield up to 18%
over twenty years
Option to purchase immediate
earnings stream at Fazenda Santa
Rita
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38. ‘The Tree of the 21st Century’
– United Nations
Indigenous to Asia
Effective natural bio-pesticide
A non-synthetic method of
disease and bacteria
suppression
The Attraction of Neem
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40. A wholesale exodus out of antibiotic development by Big Pharma. over the past 15 years
Neem – A Weapon for the Post-antibiotic Era
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14
10
7
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012
NumberofAntibacterialNewDrugApprovals
Source: FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER)
Antibacterial New Drug Approvals
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41. Neem Plantation – Key Financials
Return on Investments between
11-44%
Projected IRR to yield up to 20%
over twenty years
Crop care included for the first five
years
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42. The Importance of Asset Choice
Travelling from the US to China in 48
hours? However hard you tried on your
bicycle, you are just not going to get
there. The only guaranteed way is by jet
plane.
The same applies to investments –
make sure you choose the right
assets to get the job done
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43. E/W: Info@liquid-investments.com | www.liquid-investments.com
UK OFFICE: 9th Floor, 1 Knightsbridge Green, London, SW1X 7QA
BRAZIL OFFICE: Av Santos Dumont 2828, Sala 1501, Aldeota, Fortaleza, 60150 - 162
UK+44 (0) 20 7084 7421 | USA +1 (347) 647 0127 | BRAZIL +55 (85) 3224 6659
Thank You
For Your Attention
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