1. Early Warning Systems

2. Thought of the Day
• Tie the knot…
… and leave it at God’s Will
Hadith
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3. Terms
Adaptation
Actions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with
changing climate conditions
Capacity building
Process of developing the technical skills, institutional capability, and
personnel.
Cyclone
An atmospheric closed circulation rotating counterclockwise in the
Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
Earthquakes
Earthquakes are due to a sudden release of stresses accumulated
around the faults in the Earth’s crust. This energy is released through
seismic waves that travel from the origin zone, which cause the ground
to shake. Severe earthquakes can affect buildings and populations.
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4. Terms
Deforestation
The direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forested
land.
Droughts
A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack
of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area.
False Alarm
In the context of Early Warning Systems, a false alarm is defined as the
situation in which an alarm is activated when it should not have been.
Floods
An overflow of water onto normally dry land. Floods are often
triggered by severe storms, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes.
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5. Terms
Missed Alarm
In the context of Early Warning Systems, a missed alarm is defined as
the situation in which an alarm is not activated when it should have
been.
Mitigation
The lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and
related disasters.
Tsunami
A tsunami is a series of ocean waves generated by sudden
displacements in the sea floor, landslides, or volcanic activity.
Volcanic eruptions
Volcanic eruptions may be mild, releasing steam and gases or lava
flows, or they can be violent explosions that release ashes and gases
into the atmosphere.
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6. The Hyogo Framework for Action
The Hyogo Framework for Action (ISDR 2005), which was
adopted by the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in
Hyogo, Japan in 2005, identified five priority areas:
1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a national and
local priority with a strong institution basis for
implementation;
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance
early warning;
3. Better knowledge management for building a culture of
safety;
4. Reducing the underlying risk factors; and
5. Enhance preparedness for an effective response
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7. Monitoring
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8. Earth Observation
Earth Observation, through
measuring and monitoring,
provides an insight and
understanding into Earth’s
complex processes and
changes. EO include
measurements that can be
made directly or by sensors in-
situ or remotely (i.e. satellite
remote sensing, aerial surveys,
land or ocean-based
monitoring systems) to provide
key information to models or
other tools to support decision
making processes.
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9. Early Warning System
The set of capacities needed
to generate and disseminate
timely and meaningful
warning information to
enable individuals,
communities and
organizations threatened by
a hazard to prepare and to
act appropriately and in
sufficient time to reduce the
possibility of harm or loss.
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10. Effective Early Warning Systems
• extending the lead time of
warnings
• improving the accuracy of
warnings
• greater demand for probabilistic
forecasts
• better communication and
dissemination of warnings
• using new techniques to alert the
public
• targeting of the warning services
to relevant and specific users
(right information to right people
at right time and right place)
• warning messages are
understood and the appropriate
action taken in response.
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11. Prerequisites for an Effective Warning
Service
Focus on the User
• Identify the users
• The hazards community
• Weather-sensitive
economic sectors
• Media (print, radio, TV
and others)
• The public
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12. Effective Warning Program
• Receive the warning
• Understand the
information presented
• Believe the information
• Personalize the
information
• Make correct decisions
• Respond in a timely
manner
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13. People Centered Early Warning
Systems
• Risk Knowledge
• Monitoring and
Warning Service
• Dissemination and
Communication
• Response Capability
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14. Meteoalarms
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15. MétéoFrance Cartes de Vigilence for
the heat wave
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16. Adapting Good Practices in EWS in
Developing Countries
Nowcasting
• capacity to provide
nowcasts
• forecasts for the
following few hours
• analysis and
extrapolation of
weather systems
• observed on radar,
satellites and in situ
sensors
T+60 minute thunderstorm
nowcasting generated by
BJANC (WMO 2010)
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17. Existing Early Warning Systems
• Tsunami
• Wildfires
• El Niño phenomenon
• Desert locust plague
• Landslides
• Floods/Urban flash floods
• Drought and famine
• Volcanic eruption
• Typhoons and hurricanes
• Earthquakes
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18. Timeliness of Early Warning Systems
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19. Environmental Impact Assessment
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20. Implementation Plan
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21. Effective Warning
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22. Institutional Design Option for Government
Provision of Early Warning
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23. Japan’s Early Warning System
• Japan invested in public alert system
after 1995, 6.9 Kobe earthquake
• Seven years and $500 million later,
Japan unveiled world's first early
warning network.
• The Japanese got their big test in
March when a massive quake hit off
the northeast coast and spawned a
tsunami.
• A public emergency announcement
was sent out eight seconds after
sensors detected the first inkling of
the quake, interrupting regular TV
and radio programming, and buzzing
cell phones.
• Millions received 5 to 40
seconds of warning
depending on how far they
were from the epicenter.
Tokyo — about 230 miles
away — got about 10 to 30
seconds of notice before
high-rises swayed.
A dozen trains were
stopped in their tracks
without derailing.
Japanese early warning
system saved thousands of
lives.
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24. Earthquake Tsunami Warning System
• new earthquake alert
system
• ocean-based tsunami
warning system
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25. Examples of Response to an
Earthquake Early Warning
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26. Limitations of the Earthquake Early
Warning
• Timing
From seconds to tens of seconds
• False alarms
• Magnitude estimation
• Seismic intensity
estimation
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27. Landslides
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28. Landslides
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29. Landslides
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30. Flood Warning System
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31. Digital Elevation Modeling (DEM)
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32. Deep-ocean Assessment and
Reporting of Tsunamis (DART)
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33. Wildfires
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34. Famine in Africa
• The crisis had been predicted
over a year before, and many
dedicated professionals did as
much as they could to persuade
their agencies and others to
respond in order to prevent the
worst of the crisis, but too little
was done too late.
• First things first. The most
fundamental duty of any
government is to provide its
citizens with basic protection
from physical threat and extreme
deprivation, whether from war,
criminal violence, or natural
disaster. Everything else should
come second.
• The experience of Somalia is a
stark demonstration of the
strengths and limits of the
international humanitarian
community to mobilize for early
action based on early warning
information.
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35. Early Warning Systems 35

36. Human Health Consequences of
Climate Change
1. Asthma, Respiratory Allergies, and
Airway Diseases
2. Cancer
3. Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke
4. Foodborne Diseases and Nutrition
5. Heat-Related Morbidity and
Mortality
6. Human Developmental Effects
7. Mental Health and Stress-Related
Disorders
8. Neurological Diseases and
Disorders
9. Vectorborne and Zoonotic Diseases
10. Waterborne Diseases
11. Weather-Related Morbidity and
Mortality
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37. What are future global shocks?
• a rapid onset event with severely disruptive
consequences covering at least two
continents.
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38. Critical Infrastructure
Interdependancies
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39. Global Shocks
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40. Key Capacities for Governance of
Future Global Shocks
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41. Global Public Health Intelligence
Network (GPHIN)
• The prototype GPHIN
system was developed in
1997 in partnership with
the World Health
Organization (WHO)
• GPHIN's mission is to be an
indispensable source of
early warning for potential
public health threats
worldwide including
chemical, biological,
radiological and nuclear
(CBRN).
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42. Global Public Health Intelligence
Network (GPHIN)
• Animal Diseases
• Human diseases
• Plant diseases
• Biologics
• Natural disasters
• Chemical incidents
• Radioactive incidents
• Unsafe products
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43. Global Environmental Burden of
Disease
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44. Thank You
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