1. Assessing adaptation, mitigation and risk management
options at multiple scales
Lini Wollenberg, Philip Thornton
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Systems tools workshop, Wageningen, February 2013

2. Outline
• CCAFS background
• … at different spatial scales
• … at different temporal scales
• … in different domains (of knowledge,
modes of enquiry, …)
• Concluding remarks

3. CCAFS objectives
1. Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation practices,
technologies and policies for
agriculture and food systems.
2. Support the inclusion of agricultural
issues in climate change policies, and
of climate issues in agricultural
policies, at all levels.

4. The CCAFS Framework
Adapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and
policies for:
Improved
1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Environmental Improved
Change Health Rural
2. Adaptation through Managing Livelihoods
Climate Risk Improved
3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Food
Security
4. Integration for Decision Making
• Linking Knowledge with Action
• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis
and Planning
• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
Enhanced adaptive capacity
in agricultural, natural
resource management, and
food systems

5. … different spatial scales
What are the trade-offs and synergies between
benefits and costs (social, economic, nutritional,
environmental) at:
• Household, community levels and
• At national, regional, global levels?
Many examples: new technology  production increases  product
prices decrease  social benefits for urbanites  individual producer
disbenefits, so no adoption …

6. Assessing different options at different scales
Importance of iteration; and which are robust?
Global visioning Global impacts
activities
Global Scenarios modelling
Participatory Regional Scenarios Regional impacts
scenario building modelling
Household &
Action research
Farmer/village community
perspectives impacts modelling

7. … different temporal scales
Are there trade-offs between benefits and costs (social,
economic, environmental) between:
• Coping with disasters now (drought, flood)
• Managing seasonal risk
• Adapting to increasing decadal temperatures?
Many pathways to “maladaptation”: actions that increase GHG emissions;
that disproportionately burden the most vulnerable; that have high
opportunity costs; that reduce incentives to adapt; that limit choices
available to future generations (Barnett & O’Neil, 2009)

8. Managing climate risk · 2
>> Indexed crop & livestock insurance
Trade-offs, synergies?
• Avoids cost of verifying
losses
• Overcomes the problems of
moral hazard
• Farmers’ assets are
protected from climate
shocks
• Impacts on longer-term local
prices, local commodity
In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on
supply, on the environment?
a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with
agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.

9. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Farms of the future
Trade-offs, synergies?
• Sharing knowledge through
cross-site farmer visits and
participatory crop and
livestock trials
• Climate similarity mediated
via socio-economic, politico-
cultural similarities and
differences
Climate analogue tool to identify places • Do longer-term adaptations
whose current climates correspond to the make sense next season?
future of a chosen locality

10. … different domains
• The need to find synergies between mitigation and
adaptation
• The need to balance indigenous knowledge /
experience with new science
• The need to balance technology and process (social
learning …)

11. Social learning tools and approaches
Individual Network System
Facilitating “Search Conferences” (5) Collaborative learning exercise (9) Participatory techniques for
Interaction mentoring farmers’
Role playing games (1, 3) Participatory techniques combined with social representatives (22)
learning approaches (7)
Joint interactive use of a single Coordination platforms,
influence model (3) Facilitating public participation (7) especially at regional level
(18?)
Develop partnerships, engage in action research
(10)
Field visits, virtual role playing, project and policy
simulation exercises (12)
Capturing Framing/reframing exercise (14) Field visits (22)
Lessons
Knowledge Actors Platforms (3) Development of a knowledge network (12) Combining farmer-produced
Manage- resource maps of catchment
Workshops for joint knowledge ICT-tools (14) areas (16)
ment
production (4)
Collective perceptive maps (14)
Card sorting techniques (3)
Hexagon modeling (3)
Simulation Agent based social simulation (3) Future scenarios workshops (8)
Companion Modeling approach (1)
Harvey (2013)

12. Low emissions development· 3
>> Governing mitigation trade-offs in agriculture-
forest landscapes
Trade-offs, Synergies?
• Intensify agriculture to
Food
Security
Livelihoods conserve tropical forests?
• Forest C and ES at expense of
Mitigation and
sustainability
expansion in South, CO2 in North
• Intensification lowers GHG/kg,
but increases inputs and
pollutants
•

13. Rethinking agricultural efficiencies
Test innovations in supply chain Footprint of Analytics
outcomes and
efficiencies Emergent properties
Trade-offs
e.g. sustainability policies, development
investments, agricultural
credit, certification, industry CSR
initiatives, awareness campaigns
Per
ha, kg, person
UVM Gund Institute Initiative (Ricketts, Galford, Mendez, Farley ) with
University of Michigan (Agrawal, Newton)

14. Strategic questions for mitigation
1. How to avoid trade-offs: Low emissions
development
• SAMPLES HH modeling (ICRAF-ILRI-IRRI)
• IIASA- LED priorities
• U. Michigan- jointness of outcomes

15. Strategic questions cont.
2. Land for food v. energy v. forests
• Meeting energy needs: energy-food crop
intermodel comparison (PIK and ILRI)
• Geography of adaptation: impacts of
elevation change by perennial crops (CIAT)

16. Concluding remarks
Priorities for attention
• Develop systems approach to link TO analysis
• Sustainable intensification efficiencies and sustainability
under climate change
• More understanding of options and impacts from (1)
short-to long-term and (2) benefits and costs across
social groups
Challenges
• Costs of measuring multiple dimensions
• Managing process for understanding and applying local
stakeholder values in specific places

17. www.ccafs.cgiar.org
lini.wollenberg@uvm.edu
p.thornton@cgiar.org