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Complex versus Simple

               G510
General observations

 Results of complex models are difficult to interpret.
 Simplified systems
 Models for informed decision making/discussions
 Use of models
     ● Research tool
     ● Discussion tool
     ● Extension tool
 Complex versus simple  Complex AND simple
Research approach

           Question


      Back of the envelop



            Answer?               Solution



        Complex model
                         Case


         Simple model
                      Upscaling
Getting access to:

 Skilled people
     ● Important for all modelling studies, particularly for
       back of the envelope calculations.
     ● It is a perception that modeling is difficult
 High quality data
     ● What is needed? Better definition (AgMIP, K.
       Shepherd)
 Enough funds
     ● We wonder whether this is specific for modeling
     ● CRP’s are a good opportunity for long term
       work/model development.
Participatory approaches

 Participatory approaches should be combined with the
 modelling approaches.
 Models as discussion tools/extension tools part of
 participatory tools
 Skilled people are also a limitation for the participatory
 approaches.
 Participatory is a broad category with its (dis)advantages
 Include new/different disciplines (psychologies/political
 scientists)
 So far cutting edge modeling  upscaling
 Data limitations particularly on ag. management.
 Models should identify key drivers that can be collected.
 Risks
 Short term vs long term views
 Other modelling approaches?

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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Group discussion_Complex vs simple 2

  • 2. General observations  Results of complex models are difficult to interpret.  Simplified systems  Models for informed decision making/discussions  Use of models ● Research tool ● Discussion tool ● Extension tool  Complex versus simple  Complex AND simple
  • 3. Research approach Question Back of the envelop Answer? Solution Complex model Case Simple model Upscaling
  • 4. Getting access to:  Skilled people ● Important for all modelling studies, particularly for back of the envelope calculations. ● It is a perception that modeling is difficult  High quality data ● What is needed? Better definition (AgMIP, K. Shepherd)  Enough funds ● We wonder whether this is specific for modeling ● CRP’s are a good opportunity for long term work/model development.
  • 5. Participatory approaches  Participatory approaches should be combined with the modelling approaches.  Models as discussion tools/extension tools part of participatory tools  Skilled people are also a limitation for the participatory approaches.  Participatory is a broad category with its (dis)advantages
  • 6.  Include new/different disciplines (psychologies/political scientists)  So far cutting edge modeling  upscaling  Data limitations particularly on ag. management.  Models should identify key drivers that can be collected.  Risks  Short term vs long term views  Other modelling approaches?