1. Pengembangan Strategi Suatu
Unit Bisnis Telekomunikasi
Lukmanulhakim Almamalik

2. Pendahuluan
• Sebuah Unit Bisnis dari sebuah Perusahaan
Telekomunikasi beroperasi di sebuah kota kecil.
• Operasi unit bisnis perusahaan ini meliputi
penggantian, pemeliharaan, dan pemasangan
sambungan dan koneksivitas telekomunikasi di kota
tersebut.
• Proses ini juga melibatkan perancangan dan
perencanaan sambungan telekomunikasi sama
halnya dengan pekerjaan jasa perbaikan dan
pemeliharaan. Semua kegiatan dalam industri ini
dikenal sebagai ‘job’.

3. Permasalahan
• Meskipun Unit Bisnis Perusahaan Telekomunikasi ini
telah berpengalaman dalam pekerjaan, sementara
itu dalam pasar telekomunikasi ini untuk semua jasa
layanan yang ditawarkan Unit Bisnis ini secara
keseluruhan mengalami pertumbuhan, akan tetapi
pangsa pasar (market share) Unit Bisnis ini ternyata
mengalami penurunan dalam beberapa tahun
terakhir.
• Disamping itu, harga aktual dari Unit Bisnis ini
mengalami penurunan, bahkan harga yang
ditawarkan lebih rendah dari harga rata-rata industri
ini.

4. Behaviour Over Time (BOT) for the TBU strategy case
Total Market
Average job
completion time
Average price per job
Market Share
tahun

5. System Overview
• Pengembangan suatu systems map dan causal
loop diagram untuk menjelaskan perilaku
variabel-variabel kunci yang ditampilkan
dalam grafik Perilaku Terhadap Waktu (BOT).

6. Systems (high level) map main sectors
Market Sector
Human Resources
Operation Sector
Sector
Finance Sector

7. Causal Loop Diagram Model
O
Market
Share
Market Growth
Rate
Price
Total
B1
Market Ave time in job R1
backlog
Revenue
O
Potential Job in
Market Job in process
O
backlog
O Job
Starts Perceive
Jobs quality Operating net O Cost
Job Arrivals cash flow
completion O
O O
R2 Staff
Capacity Ave processing N PV
time Other
Desired ops O O
staff B2 delays
O Productivity per Discount
person Rate
O Operations Relative job
Staff Ave time to time ratio
Gap in staff
O complete jobs O
numbers
B4
B2
Industry job
completion time
R3 Staff
Staff leaving
hiring

8. Main Feedback Loop
Loop B1 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Job in Backlog – Av.
(Quality – Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job Time
Market) ratio - Perceive Quality – Market Share
Loop R1 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Job in Backlog – Av.
(Quality – Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job Time
Price) ratio - Perceive Quality – Price - Market Share
Loop R2 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Desired Op. Staff – Gap
(Staff – in Staff No. – Staff Hiring – Operation Staff – Staff Capacity – Job Start –
Quality) Av. Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job Time
ratio - Perceive Quality – Market Share
Loop B2 Market Share – Potential Market – Job Arrival – Desired Op. Staff – Gap
(Staff – in Staff No. – Staff Hiring – Operation Staff – Staff Capacity – Job Start –
Price) Av. Time in Job Backlog – Av. Time to Complete Job – Relative Job Time
ratio - Perceive Quality – Price – Market Share
Loop B3, B4, Gap in Staff No – Staff Hiring – Operation Staff – Gap in Staff No.
dan R3 Operation Staff – Staff Leaving – Operation Staff
(Staffing) Gap in Staff No. – Staff Hiring – Staff Leaving – Operation Staff – Gap in
Staff No.

9. Stock and Flow Diagram Model

10. MARKET SECTOR
target_market_share
quality_effect_on_market_share Potential_market_share
market_growth_rate
price_effect_on_market_share
potential_market
Relative_job_time_ratio
Total_market
change_in_market_size
Relative_price_ratio
industry_price_per_job
quality_effect_on_price Market_share
price_per_job
Job_arrivals

11. OPERATION SECTOR
Ave_backlog_time
Job_in_backlog Job_in_proses
Job_arrivals Job_start Job_completion
staff_capacity
Operation_staff other_delay
potential_market
ave_completion_time
ave_process_time
productivity_per_person
Relative_job_time_ratio
work_intensity
productive_hours_per_person
industry_job_completion_time
standard_processing_time_per_job
hour_available_per_person

12. HUMAN RESOURCES SECTOR
Staff_Replacement_Delay
Time_in_Organization
Job_arrivals
Job_arrivals_smoothing_time
Staff_Replacement Staff_Keluar
Ave_job_arrivals
Hiring_delay
Operation_staff
Desired_ops_staff Perekrutan_Staff
Gap_in_staff_numbers
productivity_per_person

13. FINANCE SECTOR
Material_Cost_per_unit
Job_start Ave_salary
Operation_staff
Material_cost Other_overheads
Ave_contractor_jobs_cost
eqip_charge_per_person
Labour_cost
Contractor_cost
Operating_cost equipment_rentals
Job_completion
Gross_margin Taxes
Tax_rate
Cash
Revenues Cash_outflow
Net_cash_flow Discount_rate
price_per_job
Net_present_value

14. PENGUJIAN DAN VALIDASI MODEL
• Uji model selanjutnya adalah menyangkut validitas
(kredibilitas) model. Tujuannya adalah mengetahui apakah
model secara aktual dapat menggambarkan dan
menghasilkan perilaku yang sama dengan apa yang
diharapkan dari sistem nyatanya.
• Validasi model ditentukan oleh dua jenis uji :
– Uji Struktur Model : Apakah struktur model yang dibangun
dapat merupakan suatu penjelasan dari permasalahan
nyatanya?
– Uji Perilaku Model : Apakah pola dinamika yang dihasilkan
model sama dengan pola dinamika nyatanya?

15. PENGUJIAN DAN VALIDASI MODEL
• Uji struktur model ini biasanya melibatkan pakar dan praktisi
yang memahami permasalahan untuk menguji struktur model
yang telah dibangun apakah telah sesuai dengan teori dan kondisi
yang ada di lapangan.
• Uji perilaku model dirancang untuk membandingkan perilaku
komponen model yang dibangun dengan perilaku dalam dunia
nyatanya.
• Dalam uji perilaku ini lebih pada membandingkan pola perilaku
model dengan sistem nyatanya dan bukan membandingkan nilai-
nilainya satu persatu.

16. Base Case Behaviour
40 10
35
5
Market_share
Gross_margin
30
25
0
20
15 -5
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month
5.0 11,000
4.5
ave_completion_time
10,500
price_per_job
4.0
10,000
3.5
9,500
3.0
2.5 9,000
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

17. Base Case Behaviour
1,000,000 1.05
800,000
Relative_price_ratio
Net_present_value
1.00
600,000
400,000
0.95
200,000
0 0.90
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
Time month
40,000 1.8
1.7
Relative_job_time_ratio
30,000
1.6
Net_cash_flow
1.5
20,000
1.4
10,000
1.3
1.2
0
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

18. Analisis Sensitivitas
• Analisis sensitivitas digunakan untuk
menentukan seberapa sensitif sebuah
model yang dibangun terhadap
perubahan nilai parameter dan /atau
strukturnya.

19. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Nilai Parameter
100 35
90
2 30
80
1
market_share
70 1 1
12 Job_arrivals
1 25
60 2 Job_completion
2 2
1
3 Operation_staff
3
50
20
3 3
40 3 3
30 15
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month
5.0 11,000
4.5
10,500
ave_completion_time
price_per_job
4.0
10,000
3.5
9,500
3.0
2.5 9,000
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

20. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Nilai Parameter
10 1,000,000
800,000
Net_present_value
5
Gross_margin
600,000
400,000
0
200,000
0
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month
40,000
relative_job_time_ratio 1.8
Net_cash_flow
20,000
1.6
0
1.4
-20,000
1.2
0 15 30 45 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
month month

21. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktur
a. Merancang Ulang Rate ‘Job Arrival
40 10
35
51 2
1 1 1 1
30 2 2 2 2
Market_share Gross_margin
1 1
25 market_share_1 Gross_margin_1
12 2 2
2 2 0
1 2 2
1
20 1
1
15 -5
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month
5.0 11,000
4.5
10,500
4.0
2 10,000
ave_completion_time price_per_job
1 1
2 12
3.5 ave_completion_time_1 1 1 1 price_per_job_1
2 2 1 2
2 2
9,500 2
2 1 2
3.0 1 1
12 1
2.5 9,000
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

22. a. Merancang Ulang Rate ‘Job Arrival
1,000,000 1.05
1
800,000
2
1 1.00
600,000 2
12 1 1 1
Net_present_value 2 1 Relative_price_ratio
1 1 1
2 2
400,000 Net_present_value_1 Relative_price_ratio_1
2 2 2
0.95
2
12
200,000
2 0.90
01
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
Time month
1.8
40,000
1.7
1.6
20,000 1 2
1 1 1 1 2
2 2 2 1.5
Net_cash_flow Relative_job_time_ratio
1 2 1
0 Net_cash_flow_1 1.4 relative_job_time_ratio_1
2 2
2
1.3
-20,000 2 1
1.2 1
1
12 1
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

23. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktur
b. Merancang Ulang Kebijakan Perekrutan Pegawai
40 10
35
51 2 1 1
1 1
30
2 2 2 2
Market_share Gross_margin
1 1
25 market_share_1 Gross_margin_1
12 12 2 2
12 1 1 0
2
20
15 -5
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month
5.0 11,000
4.5
10,500
4.0
2 10,000
ave_completion_time price_per_job
1 1
2 12
3.5 1 ave_completion_time_1 1 price_per_job_1
2 2 1 2
2 1 2 1
1
1 9,500 2
2 2
3.0 1
12
2.5 9,000
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

24. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktur
b. Merancang Ulang Kebijakan Perekrutan Pegawai
1,000,000 1.05
1 930,466.28
800,000
1 2
1.00
600,000 2
12
1 Relative_price_ratio
1 Net_present_value 2 1 1
2 1 1
400,000 2 1 Relative_price_ratio_1
Net_present_value_1 2
2 0.95 2
2
12
200,000
2 0.90
01
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
Time month
1.8
40,000
1.7
1.6
1
20,000 1 2 1 2
1 1
2 2 2 2 1.5
Net_cash_flow Relative_job_time_ratio
1 2 1
0 Net_cash_flow_1 1.4 relative_job_time_ratio_1
2 1 2
2 1
1.3
1
-20,000 2
1.2 1
12
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

25. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktur
c. Merancang Ulang Tanggapan terhadap Intensitas Kerja
40 10
22.94 5.04
35
1
1 1
52 1 1
30
2 2 2 2
Market_share Gross_margin
1 1
25 market_share_1 Gross_margin_1
12 12 2 2
12 12 0
1
20
15 -5
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month
5.0 11,000
4.5
10,500
4.0
1 ave_completion_time 10,000 price_per_job
2 1 1
1 12
3.5 ave_completion_time_1 12 price_per_job_1
2 2 2
12
1 12
9,500
2 1
3.0 1
12
2.5 9,000
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

26. Analisis Sensitivitas : Mengubah Struktur
c. Merancang Ulang Tanggapan terhadap Intensitas Kerja
1,000,000 1.05
1,103,674
1
800,000
2
1.00
1
600,000 2
12
1 Relative_price_ratio
Net_present_value 2 1
1 1
2 2 Relative_price_ratio_1
400,000 Net_present_value_1 1 2
1 2 0.95 2
1
2
200,000
2 0.90
01
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
Time month
1.8
40,000
1.7
1 1.6
20,000 2 1 1 1 1
1
2 2 2 2 1.5
Net_cash_flow 2 Relative_job_time_ratio
1 1
1
0 Net_cash_flow_1 1.4 relative_job_time_ratio_1
2 2
2
1.3 1
2
-20,000
1.2 1
12
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

27. Pengembangan Strategi
30
Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3
Base 'tightening 'Market
up ops' Boost' 28
Other Delay 1.25 1.00 1.00
26 3
3
Work Intensity 0.80 0.82 0.82 1
Market_share
1 market_share_1
23 1
24 1 2
2
2 1 3 Market_share_2
1 3
2
2
22
Standard Processing Time /Job 80.00 78.00 78.00
Hiring Delay 3.00 2.50 2.50 20
0 15 30 45 60
Staff Replacement Delay 4.00 3.00 3.00 month
Average Salary 3,750.00 3,960.00 4,100.00
4.0
2
Target Market Share
3 2
3.5 1
2
13 ave_completion_time
1
ave_completion_time_1
2 2
3.0 1
3 ave_completion_time_2
3
2
1
13
2.5
0 15 30 45 60
month

28. 25 1,500,000
20
1
1
1,000,000
1 3
15
Gross_margin 3 Net_present_value
1 1
1 2
Gross_margin_1 Net_present_value_1
10 2 2
2
3 Gross_margin_2 500,000 3 Net_present_value_2
3 3
1 2
3
52 1 13 1 1
23 3 2
2 2 2 3
0 01 2
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month Time
80,000
11,000 3
60,000
10,500
price_per_job Net_cash_flow
1 40,000 1
10,000
1 3 price_per_job_1 Net_cash_flow_1
1 2 2
2
23 1 Net_cash_flow_2
2 13 price_per_job_2 3
1 3 1 13 1 1
9,500 3 2 20,000 2
3
2 23 2 2 2
9,000 0
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month

29. 1.00 50
13
0.99
1
2 2
0.98 45 3
3 1 2 1
2
Relative_price_ratio 2 13 Operation_staff
0.97 1 1
3
13 Relative_price_ratio_1 2 1 Operation_staff_1
2 2 2
Relative_price_ratio_2 23 1
Operation_staff_2
0.96 3 40 1 3
1 2 2 1
3 2 3 1
0.95 3
2
0.94 35
0 15 30 45 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
month month
1.6 75
2
6 1
1.5
70 2 5
2
3 2 5 Job_arrivals
1 4 1
1.4 1
3 Job_completion
2 6 2
2 Relative_job_time_ratio 5 1
3 1 65 4 Job_arrivals_1
1.3 1 3 3
relative_job_time_ratio_1 6 2
2 Job_completion_1
1 4 4
2 Relative_job_time_ratio_2 36
3 1 3 2 Job_arrivals_2
1.2 60 5
1 4
2 345 Job_completion_2
6
1.1 1
13 55
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
month month