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Walkable	
  Urban,	
  Transit-­‐oriented	
  
    Development:	
  Key	
  to	
  21st	
  C	
  Economy	
  




h@p://business.gwu.edu/walkup/	
  
`	
  
Arlington	
  Starts	
  Transforms	
  in	
  1980s:	
  
Rail	
  Transit,	
  Overlay	
  Zoning	
  &	
  Mgmt	
  
1980s:	
  Ex-­‐Sears	
  Stores	
                                          Same	
  Place	
  Today	
  
               	
                                                                   	
  




 Two	
  blocks	
  north	
  and	
  south,	
  single	
  family	
  housing	
  that	
  is	
  highest	
  priced	
  in	
  
                    Arlington	
  on	
  $/foot	
  basis:	
  Best	
  of	
  Two	
  Worlds	
  
                   10%	
  of	
  the	
  land=50%+	
  of	
  government	
  revenues	
  
         Among	
  best	
  schools	
  in	
  Country…new	
  housing	
  has	
  0.4	
  per	
  unit	
  
                                                       	
  
Metropolitan	
  Land	
  Use	
  Op]ons	
  
                Economic	
            Regionally	
  	
                          Local-­‐	
  
                Role	
                Significant	
                             Serving	
  
   Form	
  
              	
                  Place—e.g.	
  TOD	
                   Neighborhood	
  
              	
                  1-­‐2%	
  of	
  Metro	
  Area	
      3-­‐7%	
  of	
  Metro	
  Area	
  
  Walkable	
  Urban	
                                                                	
  


              	
                        Edge	
  City	
                      Bedroom	
  
Drivable	
  	
  Sub-­‐Urban	
     5-­‐7%	
  of	
  Metro	
  Area	
          Community	
  
                                                 	
  
                                                                      80-­‐85%	
  of	
  Metro	
  Area	
  
                                                                                       	
  
Rail	
  Transit,	
  especially	
  streetcars	
  
   Rock	
  Creek	
  Railway,	
  DC,	
  1903	
                            Salt	
  Lake	
  City-­‐1920s	
  




West	
  End	
  &	
  Atlanta	
  Street	
  Car-­‐1920s	
     Pacific	
  Electric,	
  Los	
  Angeles-­‐1918	
  
How	
  to	
  Pay	
  for	
  Transit?	
  Local	
  Taxes	
  	
  
                                                              	
  
                                 But	
  Also…Value	
  Capture	
  &	
  TIFIA	
  
                                                ProgressiveAPTURE—PUBLIC	
  (TIF)	
  &	
  PRIVATE	
  Latching
                                                   VALUE	
  C Real Estate Cash Flows with Value
                                                                 GentrificaNon	
  Pays	
  Transit	
  
                                   +
                                 250%


                                                                             Value Latching
                                 200%
Value Creation / Cash Flow ($)




                                 150%




                                 100%




                                 50%




                                  0%
                                        1   2    3       4   5      6    7      8      9       10   11   12   13   14   15    16   17    18   19   20
                                            Short Term                              Mid Term                                 Long Term
                                                                                           Time (years)
Christopher	
  B.	
  Leinberger	
  
   Land	
  use	
  strategist,	
  developer,	
  author,	
  researcher,	
  professor	
  
                            (www.cleinberger.com)	
  
•  The	
  Op'on	
  of	
  Urbanism;	
  
   Inves'ng	
  in	
  a	
  New	
  American	
  
   Dream,	
  Island	
  Press,	
  2008	
  
•  The	
  Next	
  Slum?,	
  The	
  Atlan]c	
  
   Monthly,	
  March,	
  2008	
  	
  
•  Here	
  Comes	
  the	
  
   Neighborhood,	
  The	
  Atlan]c	
  
•  “The	
  Death	
  of	
  the	
  Fringe	
  
   Suburbs”,	
  New	
  York	
  Times,	
  
   November	
  26,	
  2011	
  
•  “Now	
  Coveted,	
  A	
  Walkable	
  
   Convenient	
  Place”,	
  New	
  
   York	
  Times,	
  May	
  25,	
  2012	
  

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Walkable urban-tod

  • 1. Walkable  Urban,  Transit-­‐oriented   Development:  Key  to  21st  C  Economy   h@p://business.gwu.edu/walkup/  
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Arlington  Starts  Transforms  in  1980s:   Rail  Transit,  Overlay  Zoning  &  Mgmt   1980s:  Ex-­‐Sears  Stores   Same  Place  Today       Two  blocks  north  and  south,  single  family  housing  that  is  highest  priced  in   Arlington  on  $/foot  basis:  Best  of  Two  Worlds   10%  of  the  land=50%+  of  government  revenues   Among  best  schools  in  Country…new  housing  has  0.4  per  unit    
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Metropolitan  Land  Use  Op]ons   Economic   Regionally     Local-­‐   Role   Significant   Serving   Form     Place—e.g.  TOD   Neighborhood     1-­‐2%  of  Metro  Area   3-­‐7%  of  Metro  Area   Walkable  Urban       Edge  City   Bedroom   Drivable    Sub-­‐Urban   5-­‐7%  of  Metro  Area   Community     80-­‐85%  of  Metro  Area    
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Rail  Transit,  especially  streetcars   Rock  Creek  Railway,  DC,  1903   Salt  Lake  City-­‐1920s   West  End  &  Atlanta  Street  Car-­‐1920s   Pacific  Electric,  Los  Angeles-­‐1918  
  • 31. How  to  Pay  for  Transit?  Local  Taxes       But  Also…Value  Capture  &  TIFIA   ProgressiveAPTURE—PUBLIC  (TIF)  &  PRIVATE  Latching VALUE  C Real Estate Cash Flows with Value GentrificaNon  Pays  Transit   + 250% Value Latching 200% Value Creation / Cash Flow ($) 150% 100% 50% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Short Term Mid Term Long Term Time (years)
  • 32.
  • 33. Christopher  B.  Leinberger   Land  use  strategist,  developer,  author,  researcher,  professor   (www.cleinberger.com)   •  The  Op'on  of  Urbanism;   Inves'ng  in  a  New  American   Dream,  Island  Press,  2008   •  The  Next  Slum?,  The  Atlan]c   Monthly,  March,  2008     •  Here  Comes  the   Neighborhood,  The  Atlan]c   •  “The  Death  of  the  Fringe   Suburbs”,  New  York  Times,   November  26,  2011   •  “Now  Coveted,  A  Walkable   Convenient  Place”,  New   York  Times,  May  25,  2012