The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment provides reliable and in-depth analysis of consumer behaviours within the rapidly changing Russian economy. We provide timely intelligence on the state of an important strategic market.

1. MNI Russia Consumer Report
September 2013
Insight and data for better decisions

2. 2
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
About MNI Indicators
Insight and data for better decisions
MNI Indicators offers unique macro-economic data
and insight to businesses and the investment
community. We produce data and intelligence that is
unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves
markets.
Written and researched by
Philip Uglow, Chief Economist
Lorena Castellanos, Economist
Shaily Mittal, Economist
Specialising in business and consumer focused
macro-economic reports, we give our customers the
ability to make timely and relevant decisions. We
strive to provide up-to-date information on business
and consumer confidence on the economy.
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3. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Contents
4
Editorial
6
Executive Summary
12
Economic Landscape
16
Indicators
17
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
25
Personal Finances
27
Business Conditions
31
Durable Buying Conditions
32
Employment Outlook
33
Prices Sentiment
36
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
37
Real Estate Investment Indicator
40
Car Purchase Indicator
42
Consumer Indicator - Regions
45
Consumer Indicator - Income Groups
46
Data Tables
54
Methodology
3

4. 4
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
So Far, So Good
Credibility is everything in central banking and so
far the newly appointed governor of Russia’s central
bank, Elvira Nabiullina, seems intent on not losing
hers.

5. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Credibility is everything in central banking and so far
the newly appointed governor of Russia’s central
bank, Elvira Nabiullina, seems intent on not losing
hers.
When Nabiullina took over the reins at Bank Rossii in
June, accusations flew that she was a stooge
appointed by President Putin, with growth flagging
there has been growing pressure from within the
Kremlin to find ways to boost the economy.
She also has some big shoes to fill. Her tenure follows
that of monetarist Sergei Ignatiev, former “best
European central bank head”, arch-hawk on inflation
and great defender of the bank’s independence.
During his 11-year tenure he has been credited with
not only curbing inflation but also successfully easing
exchange rate restrictions.
The contrast with Nabiullina is stark. She was a
former economic aide to Putin and also an economy
minister and thought to be less of an inflation hawk.
Little in her actions to date, though, has suggested
she will throw away the hard earned credibility built
up by her predecessor. Consumer price inflation rose
strongly throughout 2012 and while it looks to have
peaked in May 2013 at 7.4% it failed to decline in
August as expected from 6.5% and is still above the
5%-6% target range. The Russian Central Bank held
the refinancing rate steady at its September gathering
with the new governor citing raised inflation
expectations as the reason for not cutting rates.
Nabiullina added that rates would likely remain
unchanged next month barring no change in the
current economic trend – no doubt a little disappointing
for Putin.
Meanwhile, the central bank announced a shake-up
of its current monetary policy framework to increase
transparency. The current confusing array of rates and
instruments will be streamlined, with the existing one
week repo rate, which currently stands at 5.5%, to be
known as the ‘key rate’. And playing catch up with
other central banks, it is also planning to publish a
schedule of future monetary policy meetings as well
as pre-announce exactly when changes to monetary
policy will be made.
And all these steps are a move further down the route
to full inflation targeting which would see the ‘key
rate’ as the central bank’s main policy tool to control
inflation, while the Rouble would be allowed to free
float. This should provide some protection from
fluctuating oil prices and help improve financial
stability.
A credible and more transparent monetary framework
will not only help to improve the monetary transmission
mechanism but will also help limit financial market
volatility and garner investor confidence.
So far so good for the new governor.
Philip Uglow
Chief Economist
MNI Indicators
5

6. 6
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
Executive Summary
After three consecutive rises, the MNI Russia
Consumer Indicator declined in September to the
lowest level.

7. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
After three consecutive monthly rises, the MNI Russia
Consumer Indicator declined in September to the
lowest level since March when the series started.
The Car Purchase Indicator fell almost 3.0% in
September to 85.7, having risen to a record high in
August of 88.3.
The Consumer Indicator fell 2.6% on the month to
97.3 in September from 99.9 in August, below the
series average of 98.4.
The decline was led by a deterioration in respondents’
personal finances, as a higher percentage of
households reported that their financial situation was
worse than a year ago. A fall in expected business
conditions also contributed to the decline.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator - Components
Consumer sentiment worsened in the youngest and
oldest of the three main age groups and improved for
the 35-54 age range.
The indicator which measures opinion on the outlook
for the employment market over the next 12 months,
increased to 99.9 in September from 97.4 in August,
the highest reading since May.
Concerns over inflation did not show any signs of
easing in September. The Satisfaction with Current
Prices Indicator remained stable at 85.6, although up
16.4% from 80.4 in March when the series started.
The Interest Rate Expectations Indicator fell to 111.1
in September, down from 113.2 in August and the
lowest since March when the series started.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator again fell slightly
to 108.0 in September from 108.5 in August, but was
above the three month average of 107.3.
Business Conditions in 5
Years
Business Condition in 1
Year
Durable Buying
Conditions
Personal Finance:
Expected
Personal Finance:
Current
The Consumer Indicator fell in eight out of eleven
regions covered in the survey while it improved only
in Far Eastern Russia, Kaliningrad and West Siberia.
It also fell in seven out of the ten cities covered in the
survey, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, while it
improved in Samara, Rostov-on-Don and Nizhny
Novgorod.
MNI China Consumer
Indicator
Three out of five components which contribute to the
Russia Consumer Indicator fell in September.
7

8. 8
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
All Russia - Overview
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
99.5
99.9
97.3
-
Mar-13
98.9
-2.6
-2.6%
100.5
99.2
95.8
-
Mar-13
98.5
-3.4
-3.4%
98.8
100.3
98.4
-
May-13
99.2
-1.9
-1.9%
Personal Finance: Current
103.2
102.2
95.2
-
Mar-13
100.2
-7.0
-6.8%
Personal Finance: Expected
103.4
104.8
105.3
May-13
-
104.5
0.5
0.5%
Business Condition: 1 Year
95.9
98.6
96.0
-
Jul-13
96.8
-2.6
-2.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year
97.2
97.5
93.8
-
May-13
96.2
-3.7
-3.8%
Durable Buying Conditions
97.8
96.2
96.3
-
Jul-13
96.8
0.1
0.1%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
95.3
95.5
97.7
-
Jun-13
96.2
2.2
2.3%
105.3
108.5
108.0
-
Jul-13
107.3
-0.5
-0.5%
Car Purchase Indicator
86.2
88.3
85.7
-
series low
86.7
-2.6
-2.9%
Employment Outlook Indicator
97.1
97.4
99.9
May-13
-
98.1
2.5
2.6%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
136.1
139.4
135.4
-
Jun-13
137.0
-4.0
-2.9%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
73.8
86.0
85.6
-
Jul-13
81.8
-0.4
-0.5%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
114.1
113.2
111.1
-
series low
112.8
-2.1
-1.9%
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator

9. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
All Russia - Summary
2013
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
97.1
99.1
97.5
98.5
99.5
99.9
97.3
Current Indicator
93.8
98.2
96.2
98.4
100.5
99.2
95.8
Expectations Indicator
99.3
99.6
98.3
98.6
98.8
100.3
98.4
Personal Finance: Current
94.6
97.5
96.2
99.5
103.2
102.2
95.2
Personal Finance: Expected
109.1
105.3
105.5
102.4
103.4
104.8
105.3
Business Condition: 1 Year
92.0
95.7
96.5
97.6
95.9
98.6
96.0
Business Condition: 5 Year
96.9
98.0
93.0
95.7
97.2
97.5
93.8
Durable Buying Conditions
92.9
98.8
96.1
97.2
97.8
96.2
96.3
Current Business Conditions Indicator
89.7
95.9
95.9
97.8
95.3
95.5
97.7
Real Estate Investment Indicator
111.6
108.5
107.9
107.9
105.3
108.5
108.0
House Price Expectations
135.4
126.6
123.5
122.8
120.7
128.3
121.5
House Buying Sentiment
97.8
98.1
100.3
100.6
96.6
96.7
101.7
House selling Sentiment
98.3
99.1
100.0
99.7
101.4
99.5
99.3
Car Purchase Indicator
85.8
86.2
87.2
87.5
86.2
88.3
85.7
Car Purchase expectations
107.4
104.1
105.4
107.5
101.0
109.3
107.1
Price of Gasoline expectations
135.9
131.8
131.0
132.5
128.6
132.6
135.7
Employment Outlook Indicator
100.2
98.5
100.3
99.1
97.1
97.4
99.9
Inflation Expectations Indicator
130.6
138.3
136.5
133.1
136.1
139.4
135.4
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
80.4
76.1
84.2
86.0
73.8
86.0
85.6
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
120.1
122.0
123.1
112.1
114.1
113.2
111.1
9

10. 10
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
All Russia - Records
2013
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Median
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
97.1
99.9
98.4
98.5
Current Indicator
93.8
100.5
97.4
98.2
Expectations Indicator
98.3
100.3
99.1
98.8
Personal Finance: Current
94.6
103.2
98.4
97.5
Personal Finance: Expected
102.4
109.1
105.1
105.3
Business Condition: 1 Year
92.0
98.6
96.1
96.0
Business Condition: 5 Year
93.0
98.0
96.0
96.9
Durable Buying Conditions
92.9
98.8
96.5
96.3
Current Business Conditions Indicator
89.7
97.8
95.4
95.9
Real Estate Investment Indicator
105.3
111.6
108.2
108.0
House Price Expectations
120.7
135.4
125.5
123.5
House Buying Sentiment
96.6
101.7
98.8
98.1
House selling Sentiment
98.3
101.4
99.6
99.5
Car Purchase Indicator
85.7
88.3
86.7
86.2
Car Purchase expectations
101.0
109.3
106.0
107.1
Price of Gasoline expectations
128.6
135.9
132.6
132.5
Employment Outlook Indicator
97.1
100.3
98.9
99.1
Inflation Expectations Indicator
130.6
139.4
135.6
136.1
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
73.8
86.0
81.7
84.2
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
111.1
123.1
116.5
114.1

11. GDP Growth hit the
lowest in four
years...
... Led by contraction in manufacturing, transport and construction.

12. 12
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
Economic Landscape
Latest economic data pointed to a further weakening
in the Russian economy. GDP growth hit its lowest
for four years, industrial production was still down
on the year and inflation remained relatively high.

13. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Latest economic data pointed to a further weakening
in the Russian economy. GDP growth hit its lowest for
four years, industrial production was still down on the
year and inflation remained relatively high. In spite of
the weakness, the Russian Central Bank held the
refinancing rate at 8.25% given the persistent strength
of inflation. An announcement in September to move
towards an inflation targeting system was welcomed
by markets.
An average oil price of over $95 per barrel has not
been enough to revive an economy harmed by capital
outflows, low investment, weak external demand and
serious structural failures. Given the current weakness,
there are growing expectations that the Russian
government will provide some stimulus. Amid the
economic slowdown, the Moscow mayoral election
result potentially opens a window to further political
changes in this country.
Growth outlook worsens
Forecasts for growth were revised lower following the
release of the weaker than expected second quarter
GDP data and the continued weakness of external
demand and investment. GDP rose just 1.2%
compared with a year ago in the second quarter, the
lowest annual growth rate since the 2009 crisis, and
down from 1.6% in the first quarter.
A contraction in the manufacturing, transport and
construction sectors all reduced GDP in the second
quarter.
Following the weak GDP figures, the Russian Economy
Ministry cut its forecast for 2013 economic growth to
1.8% from 2.4%. The forecast for 2014 was also
revised down to a range of 2.8%-3.2% from 3.7%
previously.
Refinancing interest rate unchanged
The central bank of Russia held the refinancing rate
steady at 8.25% where it has remained since June.
Markets expect the rate to remain unchanged at the
next monetary policy meeting on October 14.
Bank officials have suggested that the refinancing rate
will not be cut until inflation falls within the target
range of 5%-6%. The interest rate for overnight loans
and one-day loans, however, was cut to 6.5% in
September. The maximum interest rate on one-week
deposit auctions was raised to 5.5%.
In September, the Central Bank announced its
intention to simplify its monetary policy instruments
and move towards an inflation targeting system. This
decision was welcomed by the markets as it included
the introduction of a Bank of Russia “key rate“.
GDP Growth
15
10
Construction output fell by 3.9% on the year following
a rise of 0.4% in the first quarter, while manufacturing
contracted 1.2% compared with a year ago after
expanding 1.3% in the first quarter. Transport, storage
and communications contracted 0.1% compared with
a year ago. In contrast, mining and quarrying output
posted a 1% rise on the year, following a 4.9% decline
in the first quarter.
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Separate trade data showed that exports were weak
during the first and second quarters but recovered in
July, rising 5.5% compared with a year ago after six
months of negative annual growth.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
GDP y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
2012
2013
13

14. 14
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Consumer price inflation steady while producer
prices accelerated
Consumer price inflation remained stable at 6.5% in
August, still above the Russian central bank’s 2013
target range of 5%-6%, but below the peak of 7.4%
reported in May. Food prices increased at a slower
pace in August but gasoline prices and other regulated
prices increased at a higher rate.
Weak investment and ongoing capital outflows
In August, weak investment and weak external
demand were highlighted by the Russian Central
Bank as key risks to the Russian economy. Investment
levels have continued to decline in 2013, with gross
fixed capital formation down 1.3% in the first quarter
compared with the fourth quarter and some 13.3%
below levels in the same quarter in 2012.
Russia’s central bank remains confident that inflation
will decline by the end of 2013, aided by a good
harvest and a lack of significant demand-side
inflationary pressures.
In August fixed capital investment fell by 6.2%
compared with July and was down 10.9% on the
year, following 13 consecutive months of negative
annual growth.
In early September, the President of Russia decided to
freeze utility tariffs for next year in an attempt to fight
inflation and boost the economy, which will have a
significant downward impact on inflation next year.
Fixed Capital Investment Weakens
50%
In August, producer prices rose 2.8% compared with
July, driven by higher prices in the mining and utilities
sectors. This was the largest monthly gain since
September 2012. In spite of the monthly leap, annual
producer price inflation fell to 4.7% in August, from
the 7.1% rate seen in July.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Inflation Steady in August
-40%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
16%
14%
Fixed Capital Investment y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
The Russian government announced in June an
investment plan of around $13 billion to construct
roads and railways. It also continued to negotiate big
infrastructure projects with China in the gas sector.
These include a $10 billion investment of PetroChina
in Siberian gas fields. Other large infrastructure
investments are being planned as part of the Far East
development plan proposed by the government.
CPI Growth y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
Russia was already seeing investment seeping out of
the economy before the emerging markets were hit by

15. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
expectations the US Federal Reserve would likely
start tapering its bond purchases this year. Foreign
Direct Investment in Russia fell considerably in the
first quarter to minus $26.5 billion dollars, well below
$1.5 billion seen one year ago and $6.2 billion
reported in the fourth quarter of 2012. This result was
mainly due to a dramatic drop in equity capital
investments received from abroad. They stood at
-$60.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, compared
with -$13.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Industrial production down
Industrial production rose a non-seasonally adjusted
0.5% on the month in August but was down 0.1% on
the year, after a 1.2% monthly rise in July and a fall
of 0.8% on the year.
Industrial Production - Main Sectors
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2012
2013
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Mining and quarrying production recovered in August,
increasing 2% compared to a year ago after rising
only 0.4% in July. Manufacturing remained weak,
posting an annual drop of 0.2%, although up from the
1.5% decline seen in July. Utilities production
decelerated further in August, falling 2% on the year,
slightly down from a fall of 1.8% in July.
Industrial production was already expanding at a
slower pace before 2009, when the crisis hit the
Russian economy through lower commodity prices
and weaker external demand. After a partial recovery,
industrial output has trended downward since mid2011.
Utilities
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
Industrial Production Falling
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
2008
2009
2010
2011
Industrial Production Annual Average
Industrial Production y/y %
Source: Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
15

16. 16
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
Indicators
The Consumer Indicator fell 2.6% on the month to
97.3 in September from 99.9 in August, below the
series average of 98.4.

17. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
97.3
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Lowest since March
After three consecutive monthly rises, the MNI Russia
Consumer Indicator declined in September to the
lowest level since March when the series started.
The Consumer Indicator fell 2.6% on the month to
97.3 in September from 99.9 in August, below the
series average of 98.4. Since the series started in
March 2013, the indicator has remained broadly
stable ranging between 97 and 100. A reading below
100 indicates that consumer conditions are weaker
than a year earlier while a figure above 100 shows an
improvement.
The decline was led by a worsening in respondents’
personal finances, as a higher percentage of
households reported that their financial situation was
worse than a year ago. A deterioration in expected
business conditions also contributed to the decline.
Both current and future measures fell in September.
The Current indicator decreased 3.5% on the month
to 95.8 in September, the lowest reading since March
and the second consecutive monthly fall. The
Expectations indicator fell 1.9% on the month and
moved back below 100 to 98.4, the lowest reading
since May 2013. August was the only month in which
the indicator was above 100.
Three out of five components which contribute to the
Russia Consumer Indicator fell in September.
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
105
100
95
90
85
80
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Consumer Indicators Stable but Below 100
105
100
95
90
85
80
The 0.5% improvement in the Expected Personal
Finances component to 105.3 in September and a
0.1% increase in Durable Buying Conditions to 96.3
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Current
Expectations
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
MNI Russia
Consumer Indicator
97.1
99.1
97.5
98.5
99.5
99.9
97.3
Current
93.8
98.2
96.2
98.4
100.5
99.2
95.8
Expectations
99.3
99.6
98.3
98.6
98.8
100.3
98.4
17

18. 18
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
All Russia
West Siberian
98.4
97.3
90.5
95.8
86.5
80.5
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Central Russia
102.9
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Volga
101.9
103.6
99.5
93.8
85.2
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Urals
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
North Caucasus
103.2
97.5
99.1
96.4
93.7
87.9
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Total Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator

19. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
were not enough to compensate for the 6.8% decline
in Current Personal Finances, which fell below 100 to
95.2 in September.
Consumer Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change
(% pt.)
A 2.6% drop in Business Conditions in a Year‘s time
to 96.0 in September and a 3.8% decline in Business
Conditions expectations in five years to 93.8 in
September also contributed to the overall decline in
consumer confidence.
0.0
Regions
The fall in the MNI Russia Consumer Indicator was
led by a sharp decline in consumer confidence in East
Siberia and North Caucasus where the Consumer
indicator fell 7.6% and 6.3% respectively.
The Consumer Indicator fell in eight out of eleven
regions covered in the survey while it only improved
in Far Eastern Russia, Kaliningrad and West Siberia.
The latter saw a marked increase of 12% from 77.2 in
August to 86.5 in September.
The September reading was above the 100 breakeven
only in Central Russia.
Among the top 10 cities covered in the survey,
consumer confidence deteriorated in seven cities
including Moscow and St. Petersburg, while it
improved in Samara, Rostov-on-Don and Nizhny
Novgorod. In Moscow, the total indicator fell 5.2% on
the month to 101.4 in September, posting the lowest
reading since April 2013 but remaining above 100.
Age
Business Condition: 1 Year
-0.5
0.1
-1.4
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator improved slightly
from an average of 98.3 in the second quarter to
98.9 in the third quarter driven by a 2.5% rise in
Current Personal Finances.
Business Condition: 5 Year
-0.8
Expected Personal Finances was the only indicator
above the 100 breakeven point while Current Personal
Finances posted the lowest reading since March
2013.
Durable Buying Conditions
Personal Finance: Expected
Personal Finance: Current
19

20. 20
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Consumer sentiment worsened in the youngest and
oldest of the three main age groups and improved for
the 35-54 age range.
Consumer Indicator: Age Groups
97.5
The overall Consumer Indicator for the 18-34 age
range fell 6.4% to 97.3 in September, the lowest
reading since May 2013 and the first time below 100
in three months. The decline was led by a sharp fall
in Current Personal Finances and Business Conditions
in a Year’s Time.
97.3
97.3
96.7
Since June confidence had been highest among 1834 year olds.
For the 35-54 age range, consumer confidence
improved 3.0% on the month to 97.5 in September
driven by a sharp improvement of almost 10.0% in
Durable Buying Conditions and Business Conditions
in a Year‘s Time.
For the oldest age group, 55-65, consumer confidence
fell 2.1% in the month to 96.7 in September as
current conditions deteriorated sharply.
Income
Consumer confidence improved slightly in September
for households with an average income under RUB
480,000 per annum to 98.0 from 97.8 in August,
while for households with an annual average income
over RUB 480,000, consumer confidence worsened
5.1% on the month with the indicator falling to 96.2.
Although on average consumer confidence has been
higher among high income households, since the
series started in March 2013 consumer sentiment
has worsened 4.7% for the high income group while
it has improved 1.9% for low income households.
All
18-34
35-54
55-64

21. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
99.1
98.0
97.3
Total
Current
Expected
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
99.0
96.2
92.1
Total
Current
Expected
21

22. 22
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Main Cities
The Consumer Sentiment indicator fell in seven out of
ten cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, while
it improved only in Samara, Rostov-on-Don and
Nizhny Novgorod. The overall consumer indicator was
over the 100 breakeven level in Moscow, Samara and
Kazan.
Consumer Indicator - Moscow
110
105
100
Moscow, the capital of Russia, remained the most
optimistic city and the only one with a series average
over 100. However, in September consumer sentiment
fell sharply to 101.4 from a series high of 107.0 in
August.
The decline in consumer sentiment was driven by a
13.2% fall in Business Conditions in a Year. Only
Durable Buying Conditions and Expected Personal
Finances improved, but just slightly.
Current conditions fell 6.5% on the month to 103.4 in
September from 110.5 in the previous month, while
the Expectations Indicator decreased 4.3% to 100.1
from 104.7.
95
90
85
80
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Consumer Indicator Components - Moscow
110.8
Consumer sentiment also declined in Saint Petersburg,
the second largest city of Russia, with the indicator
falling below the 100 breakeven to 98.0 in September
from 102.2 in August. A large drop in Current Personal
Finances and Business Conditions in a Year led the
decline, but was offset by a 9.5% improvement in
Durable Buying Conditions and a small rise in
Business Conditions in Five Years.
108.1
103.4
100.1
98.7
96.5
93.1
In Novosibirsk, the third most populous city in Russia,
consumer sentiment declined 3.9% on the month to
99.9 in September from 103.9 in August. Although
the overall indicator fell below the 100 breakeven, it
remained above the series average of 99.0.
Buying Conditions led the improvement.
Among the three major Russian cities, Novosibirsk
was the only one that saw an increase of the Current
Indicator which stood at 107.0 in September, up from
104.7 in August. A 5.8% monthly rise in Durable
On the contrary, the Expectations indicator in
Novosibirsk fell 8.0% on the month to 95.1 from
103.3 in August, following a decline in all three of its
components.
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finance:
Current
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Business
Condition: 1 Condition: 5
Year
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions

23. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Consumer Indicator - Saint Petersburg
Consumer Indicator - Novosibirsk
120
110
115
105
110
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
80
85
75
70
80
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Consumer Indicator Components - Saint Petersburg
94.5
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finance:
Current
103.1
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Business
Condition: 1 Condition: 5
Year
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Consumer Indicator Components - Novosibirsk
107.0
95.1
90.5
85.9
Current
Indicator
107.0
103.6
100.4
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
102.1
Personal
Finance:
Current
112.0
100.3
Personal
Finance:
Expected
93.6
91.4
Business
Business
Condition: 1 Condition: 5
Year
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
23

24. Concerns about
Future Business
Conditions
worsened...
... Possibly due to weak growth in the second quarter and the
government‘s revised GDP forecast.

25. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
95.2
Personal Finances
Back Below 100
While expectations about personal finances in a year
improved slightly, the current financial situation fell
sharply in September with the indicator posting the
lowest reading since March.
Personal Finances
120
The Current Personal Finances Indicator, which
measures whether the financial situation of a
household is better, the same, or worse than a year
ago, had trended upwards since March 2013 but has
fallen in the past two months. After two months above
100, September saw a 6.8% monthly drop to 95.2
from 102.2 in August.
110
The percentage of respondents who reported that
their current financial situation improved compared
with a year ago fell from 30.6% in August to 20.6%
in September. Those reporting financial conditions
were the same as last year increased slightly to 46.3%
from 42.2% in August, while those reporting a
worsening increased to 30.0% from 26.3% in the
previous month.
80
100
90
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Current
Expectations
Current Financial Situation Compared with 1 Year
Ago (% of Households)
0.1
Expected Personal Finances, which measures whether
households think their finances will be better in a
years’ time, have risen since June, when the indicator
posted its lowest reading since the series began.
September saw a marginal increase of 0.5% to 105.3
from 104.8 in August.
The percentage of respondents reporting they
expected their financial situation will improve in a
years’ time remained broadly unchanged at 15.4%
while the percentage of respondents reporting that
they expect their financial situation will be the same
fell from 76.0% in August to 74.6% in September.
3.1
20.5
29.9
46.3
Much Better
Same
Much Worse
A Little Better
A Little Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Personal Finances
Mar-13
Current
Expectations
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
94.6
97.5
96.2
99.5
103.2
102.2
95.2
109.1
105.3
105.5
102.4
103.4
104.8
105.3
25

26. 26
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
How Households Spend their
Money
Daily Expenses
(% of Households)
Monthly Household Income Used for Large Loan
Repayment (% of Households)
0.9
3.5
8.2
96.4
90.9
0% - 29% of Income
50% - 69% of Income
0% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
70% - 100% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
Monthly Household Income Used for Savings
(% of Households)
Monthly Household Income Used for Investments
(% of Households)
1.1
5.0
52.9
47.1
93.8
0% of Income
30% -49% of Income
0% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 100% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 100% of Income

27. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
97.7
Business Conditions
Current Conditions Improved
Perceptions about the current state of business
improved in September, while concerns about the
future worsened, possibly due to a lack of confidence
in the government’s long term reform policies, weak
growth seen in the second quarter and the lower GDP
forecast announced by the government in August.
Current Business Conditions Indicator Improves
100
98
96
The Current Business Conditions Indicator, which
measures respondents’ views on the state of business
compared with a year earlier, rose 2.3% on the month
to 97.7, close to the record high June reading of 97.8.
While it has remained below the 100 breakeven mark,
it has been on an upward trend since its inception.
94
92
90
88
In September, the proportion of survey respondents
who believed that business conditions were “good”
increased marginally from 5.1% in August to 5.9% in
September. There was a small increase in respondents
who believed that business conditions were only “fair”
to 80.9% in September, while the proportion of
respondents reporting conditions were “poor” fell from
13.5% to 10.2% in September.
The rise in the Current Business Conditions Indicator
was consistent with the September pick up in the MNI
Russia Business Indicator, which expanded to 59.0 in
September from 51.3 in the previous month, driven
by a strong improvement in the manufacturing sector.
Expectations for Business Conditions in a Year
worsened, with the indicator falling by 2.6% from
98.6 in August to 96.0 in September. This was led by
a rise in number of respondents reporting business
would be “worse” in a year. There was also a fall in
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Expected Business Conditions Worsen
100
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
1 Year
5 Years
Business Conditions
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Current
89.7
95.9
95.9
97.8
95.3
95.5
97.7
In 1 Year
92.0
95.7
96.5
97.6
95.9
98.6
96.0
In 5 Years
96.9
98.0
93.0
95.7
97.2
97.5
93.8
27

28. 28
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Selected Reasons
the number of respondents reporting business will be
“better” in a year.
All Russia
Most businesses cited poor government policy and
income and employment as the main reasons for their
gloomy outlook for business conditions.
35.9%
Longer term, Expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years fell even further by 3.8% to 93.8 in
September compared with 97.5 in August. Although
this was the lowest reading since May, the indicator
averaged 96.1 in the third quarter, up from 95.6 in
the second quarter.
64.1%
All Russia
Better
Worse
All Russia, Reasons for Better
All Russia, Reasons for Worse
41.4%
28.9%
22.1%
28.8%
19.0%
23.4%
15.2%
7.0%
5.8%
5.5%
1.9%
1.1%
Worse
Better
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Income/Employment
Events
Income/Employment
Events

29. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Business Conditions in 1 Year
Regions
Business Expectations: Worse or Better?
(% of Respondents)
38.4%
41.1%
61.6%
43.4%
Central
Urals
41.1%
43.5%
58.9%
56.5%
North Caucasus
West Siberian
Worse
Better
Reasons for Better
(% of Respondents)
Central
Urals
Reasons for Worse
(% of Respondents)
North Caucasus
West Siberian
Central
Urals
North Caucasus
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Government/Policy
Resource/Environment
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Econ. Development
Social Stability/ Security
Income/Employment
Events
Income/Employment
Events
West Siberian
29

30. Interest Rates
Expectations
continued to fall in
September.
The indicator fell to a new record low of 111.1 from 113.2 in August.

31. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
96.3
Durable Buying Conditions
Remains Steady
The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator, which
measures whether respondents think it is a good or
bad time to buy a large household good, remained
broadly unchanged at 96.3 in September compared
with 96.2 in August.
The indicator has been reasonably stable in recent
months, although is higher than the 92.9 recorded in
March, but still below the breakeven 100 level and
the three month average of 96.8.
Official data has highlighted the current weakness in
the economy. GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in the
second quarter compared with a year earlier, the
weakest since 2009. Concerns about the immediate
future for the economy have likely impacted
consumers‘ attitude towards buying large household
items since the series began in March.
Durable Buying Conditions Stable
100
95
90
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Is It a Good or Bad Time to Buy Large Household
Goods? (% of Households)
Survey participants saying it was an “”excellent time”
or “good time” to buy large household durables
totalled 16.9% in September, down from 20.4% in
August, while the proportion of those saying it was a
“bad time” or ”very bad time” fell slightly to 22.3% in
September from 23.4% in August. Those responding
“no change” totalled 50.1%, up from 48.9% in
August.
2.1
10.7
16.9
20.2
50.1
Excellent Time
Bad Time
Good Time
Very Bad Time
Neutral
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Durable Buying Conditions
Mar-13
Durable Buying
Conditions
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
92.9
98.8
96.1
97.2
97.8
96.2
96.3
31

32. 32
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
99.9
Employment Outlook Indicator
Highest since May
The Employment Indicator, which measures opinion
on the outlook for the employment market over the
next 12 months, rose 2.6% to 99.9 in September
from 97.4 in August, the highest reading since May.
The indicator has risen in each of the past two
months, although has remained below the breakeven
100 level since June.
Survey participants forecasting an improvement in
employment totalled 8.8% in September, down from
11.6% in August, while the proportion of those
forecasting a worsening totalled 8.9% in September,
down from 16.7% in August.
The majority of
respondents forecast no change in employment, with
the percentage of participants increasing from 70.6%
in August to 81.4% in September.
Employment Outlook Indicator Improves
105
100
95
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months
(% of Households)
1.0
8.9
8.8
81.4
Much Better
Same
Much Worse
A Little Better
A Little Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Employment Outlook
Mar-13
Employment
Outlook
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
100.2
98.5
100.3
99.1
97.1
97.4
99.9

33. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
85.6
Prices Sentiment
Wide Dissatisfaction
Concerns over inflation showed no sign of easing in
September as respondents remained concerned about
the current level of prices, while expectations for the
future fell only slightly.
Current Prices Satisfaction Stable
90
The Satisfaction with Current Prices Indicator remained stable at 85.6 in September, although was up
by 16.4% from the March reading of 80.4 when the
series started. A figure below 100 indicates wider dissatisfaction with current prices, and the further below
100 the greater the dissatisfaction. The indicator has
not been above 100 since the series started in March.
85
Consumer price inflation remained sticky at 6.5% on
the year in August, though it was down from the 7.1%
reported at the start of the year. From July to August,
food prices decreased 1.0%, mainly due to a drop in
cost of fruits and vegetables. Inflation, though, still
remains above the central bank of Russia’s 5.0%6.0% target for inflation for 2013.
70
The Inflation Expectations Indicator measures whether
respondents think prices will be higher or lower in 12
months’ time. The Indicator fell 2.8% to 135.4 in
September from the peak of 139.4 in August.
The percentage of respondents who believed prices
would be higher in a years’ time accounted for 65.3%
in September, down from 74.9% in August, while those saying prices would be unchanged increased to
33.7% from 24.0%. Respondents who forecast prices
would be lower remained the same at 0.8%.
80
75
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Inflation Expectations Indicator
142
140
138
136
134
132
130
128
126
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Asked about how much prices would rise over the
Prices Sentiment
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Satisfaction with
Current Prices
80.4
76.1
84.2
86.0
73.8
86.0
85.6
Inflation Expectations
130.6
138.3
136.5
133.1
136.1
139.4
135.4
33

34. 34
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Prices Sentiment
Regions
next year, a high proportion of respondents in September thought that prices could rise up between
11.0% - 24.0% in a year, although this was down
compared with last month.
Satisfaction with Prices
(% of Households)
0.9
Regions
Four out of the five top regions showed dissatisfaction
with the current level of prices apart from Volga which
touched the breakeven 100 mark. Central, North
Caucasus and Urals regions showed large falls compared with August.
The decline in inflation expectations over the next 12
months between August and September was mainly
driven by West Siberian, Urals and North Caucasus
regions. The Central region showed stability, while
Volga recorded an increase in the Inflation Expectations Indicator.
1.8 3.6
28.8
64.8
Very Satisfied
So So
Not Satisfied At All
Quite Satisfied
Not Very Satisfied
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Inflation Expectations in 12 Months
(% of Households)
0.8 0.3
6.4
33.7
58.9
Much Higher
Same
Much Lower
A Little Higher
A Little Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer

35. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Inflation Expectations Indicator
Expected Change in Prices in 1 Year
(% of Households)
170.0
135.4
138.8
All Russia
Central
150.3
122.4
Urals
Volga
North
Caucasus
Central
Urals
Volga
North Caucasus
Much Higher
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
Same
Much Lower
A Little Higher
A Little Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
100.0
85.6
All Russia
88.7
82.1
80.6
Central
Urals
Volga
North
Caucasus
All Russia
Central
Urals
Volga
North
Caucasus
Very Satisfied
Neutral
Not Satisfied At All
Quite Satisfied
Not Very Satisfied
Don‘t Know/No Answer
35

36. 36
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Interest Rate Expectations
Indicator
Drops to a New Record Low
Survey participants expected interest rates to continue
to fall over the coming year.
The Interest Rate Expectations Indicator fell to 111.1
in September, down from 113.2 in August and the
lowest since March when the series started.
The fall in the indicator possibly reflected expectations
that the central bank could loosen monetary policy - a
policy shift towards stimulating growth instead of the
current aim of containing inflation.
The Central Bank of Russia has kept the one week
auction repo rate, its new main policy rate at 5.5% in
September. The central bank aims to simplify its
monetary policy tools, making it transparent and
simpler to understand.
Survey participants forecasting that interest rates on
home and car loans would be higher in a year
accounted for 25.3% in September, down from 30.7%
in August. Those forecasting lower rates fell to 6.0%
in September, down from 8.4% in August. The
percentage of respondents responding that interest
rates would remain the same stood at 64.6%, up from
56.1% in August.
111.1
Interest Rate Expectations Indicator Falling since May
125
120
115
110
105
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Expected Change in Interest Rate in 1 year
(% of Households)
2.8
6.0
4.1
22.5
64.6
Much Higher
Same
Much Lower
A Little Higher
A Little Lower
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Expected Interest Rate
Mar-13
Expected Interest
Rate
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
120.1
122.0
123.1
112.1
114.1
113.2
111.1

37. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
108.0
Real Estate Investment Indicator
Remains Stable
The Real Estate Investment Indicator fell slightly to
108.0 in September from 108.5 in August, but
remained above the three month average of 107.3.
The latest fall followed a significant rise in August
which brought the trend decline in the series seen
since March to an end.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator is composed of
three sub-indicators to assess sentiment on the
housing market; House Price Expectations, House
Buying Sentiment and House Selling Sentiment.
House Price Expectations fell to 121.5 in September,
down from 128.3 in August, posting a monthly fall of
5.3%. A value above 100 indicates more people
expect prices to increase in the next six months. The
indicator has been significantly above 100 for the
entire period since March.
The percentage of respondents who said prices will
“go up“ in the next six months was 43.6% in
September, while those saying prices would go down
totalled just 1.4%. Those who said prices would “stay
the same” stood at 52.1% while 2.9% were not sure
or did not respond in September.
House Buying Sentiment, a measure of whether it is a
good time in the next six months to buy a house,
increased to 101.7 in September, up by 5.2% from
96.7 in August, the highest reading since March
when the series started.
Real Estate Investment Indicator
115
110
105
100
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Real Estate Investment Indicator: Contribution to
Monthly Change (% pt.)
House Selling
0.07
1.55 House Buying
Price Expectation
-2.09
Real Estate Investment Sentiment
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Real Estate Investment Sentiment
111.6
108.5
107.9
107.9
105.3
108.5
108.0
Price Expectations
135.4
126.6
123.5
122.8
120.7
128.3
121.5
House Buying
97.8
98.1
100.3
100.6
96.6
96.7
101.7
House Selling
98.3
99.1
100.0
99.7
101.4
99.5
99.3
37

38. 38
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Real Estate Investment Indicator
Components and Balances
House Selling Sentiment is a measure of whether it is
a good time in the next six months to sell a house,
and has a negative impact on the overall Real Estate
Investment Indicator. The Indicator remained stable at
99.3 in September, below the three month average of
100.1.
Real Estate Investment Indicator - Components
128.3
121.5
96.7
101.7
99.5
99.3
108.5 108.0
Regions
The Real Estate Investment Indicator showed an
improvement in Central, North Caucasus and Volga
regions. The Indicator for North Caucasus moved
above the breakeven 100 mark again after two
consecutive declines. The Urals region suffered a
decline and West Siberian remained stable.
Price Expectation
House Buying
House Selling
Indicator
August 2013
September 2013
Real Estate Prices: Expected Changes
Expected Changes in Real Estate Prices in the Next
6 months (% of Households)
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
All Russia
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Central
Urals
Aug-13 Sep-13
Volga
North
Caucasus
Go Up Dramatically
Stay the Same
Go Down Sharply
Go Up Slightly
Gow Down Slightly
Don‘t Know/No Answer

39. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
House Buying Sentiment
Reasons for Buying Houses (% of Households)
105
8.1
29.0
17.3
100
3.4
95
9.0
33.0
90
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Prices
House Selling Sentiment
Invetsment Value
Supply and Quality
Income/Purchasing Power
Policy/Interest Rate
Others
Timing for Selling Houses (% of Households)
105
0.8
7.1
11.5
11.3
100
69.3
95
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Excellent Time
Neutral
Very Bad Time
Good Time
Bad Time
Don‘t Know/No Answer
39

40. 40
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
85.7
Car Purchase Indicator
Down from Record High
The Car Purchase Indicator fell almost 3.0% in
September to 85.7, having risen to a record high in
August at 88.3.
The indicator assesses whether consumers believe it
is a good or bad time to purchase a car and is affected
by two components, Car Purchase Expectations and
Price of Gasoline Expectations.
Car Purchase Indicator Down in September
90
85
The Car Purchase Expectations component, which
measures the willingness to buy a car, stood at 107.1
in September, down from 109.3 in August, but still
above the three month average of 105.8.
80
The Indicator on Gasoline Prices, which measures the
expectations for the price of gasoline in a year, has
been rising after bottoming at 128.6 in July. The
indicator increased 2.3% to 135.7 in September, from
132.6 reported last month. Increasing gasoline prices
have a negative impact on the overall Car Purchase
Indicator.
Survey participants forecasting gasoline prices would
go up totalled 70.9% September, up from 64.1% in
August, while the proportion of those saying gasoline
prices would go down remained the same at 0.8% in
September.
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Car Purchase Indicator - Components
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Car Purchase
Price of Gasoline
Car Purchase Sentiment
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
85.8
86.2
87.2
87.5
86.2
88.3
85.7
Car Purchase
107.4
104.1
105.4
107.5
101.0
109.3
107.1
Price of Gasoline
135.9
131.8
131.0
132.5
128.6
132.6
135.7
Car Purchase
Sentiment

41. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Reasons for a Good Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
All Russia
Central
Urals
Reasons for a Bad Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
North Caucasus
All Russia
Central
Urals
North Caucasus
Prices
Policy/Interest Rate
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Prices
Policy/Interest Rate
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Income/Purchasing Power
Supply and Quality
Others
Income/Purchasing Power
Supply and Quality
Others
Expected Change in the Price of Gasoline
(% of Households)
Is It a Good Time to Buy a Car?
111.2
109.8
0.8
1.3
107.1
12.0
104.3
16.4
100.0
100.0
69.5
All Russia
Go Up Dramatically
Stay the Same
Go Down Sharply
Go Up Slightly
Gow Down Slightly
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Central
Urals
Volga
North
Caucasus
West
Siberian
41

42. 42
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Regions
Consumer Indicator: North Caucasus
Consumer Indicator Components: North Caucasus
110
105.3
97.5
100
90.7
88.9
87.9
96.5
86.9
90
80
70
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Consumer Indicator: West Siberian
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finance:
Current
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Business
Condition: 1 Condition: 5
Year
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: West Siberian
115
110
100.0
90.9
90.5
105
80.5
100
80.5
80.5
80.5
95
90
85
80
75
70
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finance:
Current
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Business
Condition: 1 Condition: 5
Year
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions

43. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Consumer Indicator: Volga
Consumer Indicator Components: Volga
110
119.6
105
99.5
100
90.1
85.2
89.7
89.3
95
80.4
90
85
80
75
70
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Consumer Indicator: Central
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finance:
Current
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Business
Condition: 1 Condition: 5
Year
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: Central
107.2
110
105
103.6
102.7
100
103.0
101.9
100.8
100.7
95
90
85
80
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finance:
Current
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Business
Condition: 1 Condition: 5
Year
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
43

44. 44
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Employment Indicator Outlook for the Next 12 Months (% of Households)
Central
Urals
Much Better
About the Same
A Little Worse
North Caucasus
Much Worse
A Little Better
Volga
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
(% of Households)
Central
Urals
Much Better
About the Same
Much Worse
A Little Better
A Little Worse
Don‘t Know/No Answer
Volga
North Caucasus

45. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Income Groups
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
99.1
97.8
< RUB 480,000 - Components
99.6
99.7
100.9
100.9
98.5
98.0
97.3
90.1
95.0
< RUB 480,000 Consumer Indicator
< RUB 480,000 Current Indicator
< RUB 480,000 Expectations Indicator
Finance:
Current
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Condition: 1
Year
Business
Condition: 5
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
96.6
94.0
Business
Condition: 5
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
August 2013
September 2013
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
109.3
102.0
101.4
> RUB 480,000 - Components
100.9
99.0
91.0
90.3
96.2
92.1
Over RUB 480,000 Consumer Indicator
August 2013
September 2013
Over RUB 480,000 Current Indicator
Over RUB 480,000 Expectations Indicator
Personal
Finance:
Current
Personal
Finance:
Expected
Business
Condition: 1
Year
45

46. 46
MNI China Consumer Report - July 2013
Data Tables
A closer look at the data behind the MNI Russia
Consumer Sentiment.

47. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Russia - Central Overview
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
103.4
104.5
102.9
-
Jun-13
103.6
-1.6
-1.55%
Current Indicator
102.8
104.9
101.9
-
Jun-13
103.2
-3.0
-2.94%
Expectations Indicator
103.8
104.2
103.6
-
Jun-13
103.9
-0.6
-0.62%
Personal Finance: Current
103.9
106.4
100.7
-
May-13
103.7
-5.7
-5.37%
Personal Finance: Expected
109.2
107.4
107.2
-
May-13
107.9
-0.2
-0.16%
Business Condition: 1 Year
102.7
105.9
100.8
-
Jun-13
103.2
-5.1
-4.78%
Business Condition: 5 Year
99.5
99.4
102.7
series high
-
100.5
3.3
3.32%
Durable Buying Conditions
101.7
103.5
103.0
-
Jul-13
102.7
-0.5
-0.44%
99.0
96.0
97.4
Jul-13
-
97.4
1.4
1.46%
110.8
109.5
112.3
May-13
-
110.9
2.8
2.59%
86.2
87.5
89.4
series high
-
87.7
1.9
2.20%
Employment Outlook Indicator
101.1
103.9
99.5
-
Jun-13
101.5
-4.4
-4.24%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
135.7
139.3
138.8
-
Jul-13
137.9
-0.5
-0.36%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
73.7
82.9
80.6
-
Jul-13
79.1
-2.3
-2.70%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
104.9
107.5
109.2
May-13
-
107.2
1.7
1.58%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator
Car Purchase Indicator
47

48. 48
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Russia - Urals Overview
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
101.2
99.8
99.1
-
May-13
100.0
-0.7
-0.7%
Current Indicator
110.9
100.9
103.2
Jul-13
-
105.0
2.3
2.3%
94.7
99.1
96.4
-
Jul-13
96.7
-2.7
-2.7%
109.2
108.9
110.0
series high
-
109.4
1.1
1.0%
Personal Finance: Expected
97.2
104.7
97.0
-
series low
99.6
-7.7
-7.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year
89.8
96.0
110.5
series high
-
98.8
14.5
15.1%
Business Condition: 5 Year
97.2
96.6
81.7
-
series low
91.8
-14.9
-15.4%
Durable Buying Conditions
112.5
92.9
96.3
Jul-13
-
100.6
3.4
3.7%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
105.4
87.9
96.6
Jul-13
-
96.6
8.7
9.9%
Real Estate Investment Indicator
108.3
120.9
115.5
-
Jul-13
114.9
-5.4
-4.5%
Car Purchase Indicator
97.3
89.6
90.9
Jul-13
-
92.6
1.3
1.5%
Employment Outlook Indicator
86.1
91.0
100.0
May-13
-
92.4
9.0
9.9%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
149.9
158.7
150.3
-
Jul-13
153.0
-8.4
-5.3%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
93.5
94.0
88.7
-
May-13
92.1
-5.3
-5.6%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
133.0
138.6
115.8
-
series low
129.1
-22.8
-16.5%
Expectations Indicator
Personal Finance: Current

49. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Russia - Volga Overview
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
96.9
95.8
93.8
-
May-13
95.5
-2.0
-2.1%
107.7
89.3
85.2
-
Mar-13
94.1
-4.1
-4.6%
89.7
100.2
99.5
-
Jul-13
96.5
-0.7
-0.7%
Personal Finance: Current
115.4
88.9
90.1
Jul-13
-
98.1
1.2
1.3%
Personal Finance: Expected
100.0
100.0
119.6
series high
106.5
19.6
19.6%
Business Condition: 1 Year
84.6
100.0
89.7
-
Jul-13
91.4
-10.3
-10.3%
Business Condition: 5 Year
84.6
100.7
89.3
-
Jul-13
91.5
-11.4
-11.3%
Durable Buying Conditions
100.0
89.6
80.4
-
May-13
90.0
-9.2
-10.3%
65.4
100.0
100.0
series high
-
88.5
0.0
0.0%
105.1
126.4
129.8
series high
-
120.4
3.4
2.7%
Car Purchase Indicator
94.0
94.8
75.0
-
series low
87.9
-19.8
-20.9%
Employment Outlook Indicator
87.9
69.5
100.0
May-13
-
85.8
30.5
43.9%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
165.4
150.0
170.0
May-13
-
161.8
20.0
13.3%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
69.2
89.6
100.0
series high
-
86.3
10.4
11.6%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
137.9
109.8
100.0
-
series low
115.9
-9.8
-8.9%
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Current Business Conditions Indicator
Real Estate Investment Indicator
49

50. 50
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Russia - North Caucasus Overview
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
94.9
100.0
93.7
-
Apr-13
96.2
-6.3
-6.3%
Current Indicator
85.8
97.5
87.9
-
Jul-13
90.4
-9.6
-9.8%
101.0
101.7
97.5
-
series low
100.1
-4.2
-4.1%
90.7
108.0
88.9
-
Jun-13
95.9
-19.1
-17.7%
Personal Finance: Expected
102.0
105.6
105.3
-
Jul-13
104.3
-0.3
-0.3%
Business Condition: 1 Year
100.7
99.9
90.7
-
series low
97.1
-9.2
-9.2%
Business Condition: 5 Year
100.3
99.5
96.5
-
series low
98.8
-3.0
-3.0%
Durable Buying Conditions
81.0
87.1
86.9
-
Jul-13
85.0
-0.2
-0.2%
102.1
100.0
102.4
Apr-13
-
101.5
2.4
2.4%
Real Estate Investment Indicator
95.4
93.5
103.5
Apr-13
97.5
10.0
10.7%
Car Purchase Indicator
79.4
83.4
87.2
Jun-13
-
83.3
3.8
4.6%
Employment Outlook Indicator
101.6
100.7
100.0
-
series low
100.8
-0.7
-0.7%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
124.3
126.0
122.4
-
Mar-13
124.2
-3.6
-2.9%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
74.8
84.5
82.1
-
Jul-13
80.5
-2.4
-2.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
107.2
102.1
95.5
-
series low
101.6
-6.6
-6.5%
Expectations Indicator
Personal Finance: Current
Current Business Conditions Indicator

51. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Russia - West Siberian Overview
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
96.7
77.2
86.5
Jul-13
-
86.8
9.3
12.0%
Current Indicator
96.2
58.1
80.5
Jul-13
-
78.3
22.4
38.6%
Expectations Indicator
97.1
90.0
90.5
Jul-13
-
92.5
0.5
0.6%
Personal Finance: Current
117.0
68.1
80.5
Jul-13
-
88.5
12.4
18.2%
Personal Finance: Expected
100.0
100.0
100.0
series high
-
100.0
0.0
0.0%
Business Condition: 1 Year
91.2
70.0
90.9
Jul-13
-
84.0
20.9
29.9%
Business Condition: 5 Year
100.0
100.0
80.5
-
series low
93.5
-19.5
-19.5%
Durable Buying Conditions
75.3
48.1
80.5
Apr-13
-
68.0
32.4
67.4%
Current Business Conditions Indicator
100.0
100.0
100.0
series high
100.0
0.0
0.0%
Real Estate Investment Indicator
125.1
119.7
119.9
Jul-13
-
121.6
0.2
0.2%
79.1
85.0
75.0
-
series low
79.7
-10.0
-11.8%
Employment Outlook Indicator
100.0
91.0
100.0
series high
-
97.0
9.0
9.9%
Inflation Expectations Indicator
100.0
120.9
100.0
-
series low
107.0
-20.9
-17.3%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
41.2
80.0
80.5
Jun-13
-
67.2
0.5
0.6%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator
100.0
100.0
110.4
Apr-13
-
103.5
10.4
10.4%
Car Purchase Indicator
51

52. 52
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
All Russia Overview by Age
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
100.9
104.0
97.3
-
series low
100.7
-6.7
-6.4%
99.1
101.9
94.3
-
series low
98.4
-7.6
-7.5%
Expectations Indicator
102.0
105.3
99.4
-
May-13
102.2
-5.9
-5.6%
Personal Finance: Current
102.3
104.3
93.3
-
series low
100.0
-11.0
-10.5%
Personal Finance: Expected
105.6
107.6
105.9
Apr-13
-
106.4
-1.7
-1.6%
Business Condition: 1 Year
100.6
107.4
97.1
-
May-13
101.7
-10.3
-9.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year
99.9
101.0
95.2
-
May-13
98.7
-5.8
-5.7%
Durable Buying Conditions
96.0
99.5
95.2
-
series low
96.9
-4.3
-4.3%
99.0
94.7
97.5
Jul-13
-
97.1
2.8
3.0%
101.6
94.1
101.2
Jul-13
-
99.0
7.1
7.5%
97.2
95.2
95.1
-
series low
95.8
-0.1
-0.1%
Personal Finance: Current
103.7
96.5
102.0
Jul-13
-
100.7
5.5
5.7%
Personal Finance: Expected
102.9
103.6
102.4
-
series low
103.0
-1.2
-1.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year
92.6
87.8
96.4
series high
-
92.3
8.6
9.8%
Business Condition: 5 Year
96.1
94.1
86.5
-
series low
92.2
-7.6
-8.1%
Durable Buying Conditions
99.4
91.6
100.5
May-13
-
97.2
8.9
9.7%
96.5
98.8
96.7
Jul-13
-
97.3
-2.1
-2.1%
102.3
104.1
87.9
May-13
-
98.1
-16.2
-15.6%
92.6
95.2
102.6
series high
-
96.8
7.4
7.8%
105.1
111.3
85.7
-
series low
100.7
-25.6
-23.0%
Personal Finance: Expected
97.8
96.4
110.3
series high
-
101.5
13.9
14.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year
89.0
95.9
91.3
Jul-13
-
92.1
-4.6
-4.8%
Business Condition: 5 Year
91.1
93.4
106.2
series high
-
96.9
12.8
13.7%
Durable Buying Conditions
99.5
96.9
90.2
May-13
-
95.5
-6.7
-6.9%
Age 18-34
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Current Indicator
Age 35-54
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Age 55-64
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
Current Indicator
Expectations Indicator
Personal Finance: Current

53. MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
All Russia - Overview by Income
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
97.7
97.8
98.0
series high
-
97.8
0.2
0.2%
Current Indicator
99.3
95.0
99.1
Jul-13
-
97.8
4.1
4.3%
Expectations Indicator
96.6
99.6
97.3
-
Jul-13
97.8
-2.3
-2.3%
Personal Finance: Current
100.7
100.2
99.7
-
Jun-13
100.2
-0.5
-0.5%
Personal Finance: Expected
101.3
103.3
100.9
-
Jun-13
101.8
-2.4
-2.3%
Business Condition: 1 Year
93.4
97.5
100.9
Jun-13
-
97.3
3.4
3.5%
Business Condition: 5 Year
95.1
98.0
90.1
-
May-13
94.4
-7.9
-8.1%
Durable Buying Conditions
97.9
89.8
98.5
series high
-
95.4
8.7
9.7%
MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
100.9
101.4
96.2
-
series low
99.5
-5.2
-5.1%
Current Indicator
101.0
102.0
92.1
-
series low
98.4
-9.9
-9.7%
Expectations Indicator
100.8
100.9
99.0
-
Jun-13
100.2
-1.9
-1.9%
Personal Finance: Current
105.2
103.6
90.3
-
series low
99.7
-13.3
-12.8%
Personal Finance: Expected
105.4
105.9
109.3
Mar-13
-
106.9
3.4
3.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year
97.2
99.6
91.0
-
Mar-13
95.9
-8.6
-8.6%
Business Condition: 5 Year
100.0
97.4
96.6
-
Jun-13
98.0
-0.8
-0.8%
Durable Buying Conditions
96.9
100.5
94.0
-
series low
97.1
-6.5
-6.5%
< RUB 480,000 Per Annum
> RUB 480,000 Per Annum
53

54. 54
MNI Russia Consumer Report - September 2013
Methodology
The MNI Russia Consumer Sentiment Survey is a
wide ranging monthly survey of consumer confidence
across Russia.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone
interviews (CATI), with each interviewee selected
randomly by computer. At least 1,000 interviews are
conducted each month.
The survey adopts a similar methodology to the
University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer
sentiment.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator is derived from
five questions, two on current conditions and three on
future expectations:
1) Current personal financial situation compared to a
year ago
2) Current willingness to buy major household items
3) Personal financial situation one year from now
4) Overall business conditions one year from now
5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years
Indicators relating to specific questions in the report
are diffusion indices with 100 representing a neutral
level, meaning positive and negative answers are
equal. Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity
while values below show increasing negativity.

55. Discovering trends in BRIC
countries: MNI BRIC indicators
MNI‘s new BRIC indicators explore attitudes, perspectives and confidence in
Brazil, Russia, India and China. Our data and monthly reports present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by businesses and consumers.
Our indicators allow investors, economists, analysts, and companies to identify
economic trends and make informed investment and business decisions. Our data
moves markets.
www.mni-indicators.com
Insight and data for better decisions

56. Published by
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